So when does "IT" hit the fan?

[AMProducts]

So in going through this thread, this has been pretty involved... I'm sorry for your loss Iron. I lost a really close friend when I was younger, but he was killed in a motor cycle accident, still unexpected, tragic. This is year 12. I absolutely understand the bloom being off the rose.

That said, I'm going to take a few minutes to crap on a few ideas:

First, currency is currency, and assets are assets: In general, when the market goes up, the price of gold goes down, the reverse is also true. I do not consider precious metals as a good investment long term unless you're really just looking for an outlet for money you couldn't spend any other way. It may shield you from inflation, but that's about it. Gold is likely the worst investment vehicle of all, as it never beats the market, and never catches up to inflation until the market tanks. The market is also a crappy investment, as the movement of money is not tangible until action is taken. Buying and holding stock is kinda like keeping your money on the pass line, it's fine until someone craps out.

On the other hand, your 100 tons of equipment is a solid investment, because it has the means to constantly produce value without it's value being diminished. Think of it this way: if I buy an axe, I cut and sell firewood, I'm taking something that has a relatively low utility value: trees, using my axe to turn trees into something I can sell: firewood or lumber. What I have sold is my labor, I still have an axe. If I invest in a faster means (say a chainsaw, or a sawmill) I get more product for an equal amount of labor, I earn more money, and the process grows. If you really need to get out from under the 100 tons of equipment you have, you can turn it into cash, which you can then buy another 50 tons of more efficient equipment.

Next, I think you're asking the wrong question as to whether "when" the SHTF, and it should more be a question of "If". While there are plenty of dire predictions out there, there's a few fundamentals that need to be remembered: Americans generally are a law abiding lot, we are one of the most well armed societies out there, but have murder rates orders of magnitude lower than other countries where guns are absolutely verboten. So asking "when" regular law abiding citizens are going to start walking around killing each other seems like the wrong question. Now, there might be isolated incidents and cases such as riots where it may seem like the whole world has lost it's mind, but that could only be a few square blocks. The only exception I see to this case is if the government completely loses it's mind and decides to go rogue, so what you get is essentially police rioting, don't laugh, it's happened, but it is an exceedingly rare event.

In general, the only way things would break down to this point is if some event occurred that prevented people from putting food in their mouths, not 1-2, not 100-200k, I mean everyone. Really the only circumstances I see that happening: a seriously lethal pandemic illness, or an event along the lines of a thermonuclear exchange.

Much of the SHTF thinking is really nothing but violence porn and fan-fic. I completely understand why it's so sexy, when you think about yourself as the hero of some as yet unwritten history. But it's a fantasy, where you shoot straighter and faster than the people shooting at you, your bullets rip their bodies apart, while theirs are stopped by your armor... Fantasy can be a good healthy outlet, however if it's all you indulge in, it can be really bad.

At it's worst, the whole of "prepper" culture is nothing more than a race in which he who has the most crap endorsed by W blogger, X youtube channel, or Y survivalist author wins. When it really matters it's not a matter of who has the most crap it's a matter of who can see and hear better, who is better rested, and who has the better assessment of his adversary.

What much of survivalism comes down to for me at least is keeping your priorities straight in the face of adversity, and developing tools for what will help you do that. The two most important things to me are my family and my freedom, everything else is simply a means to help me maintain those two things.

One problem that I find happens a lot in "prepper" circles is it tends to be an echo chamber, in that there's always this fever pitch to get an off-grid ranch, that's just a front end for the warren of reinforced concrete bunkers underneath, stocked with several centuries of food. All the while being dismissive of everyone who can't or won't do this as "sheeple".

While as someone who was once a teenage boy, I think a huge fort in the woods would be friggin awesome, I mean I remember building forts when I was a kid, and it was really cool, but as you have made the point, how practical is it, and does it serve the original mission of preserving the most important things?

What I really suggest is take the time and do some reading, and stop listening to the pundits put on the air by advertisers, and give yourself some perspective. While I like listening to Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, and Clyde Lewis, none of them have my individual best interest at heart, they have to sell ads to stay on the air and put food in their food holes.

Here's my reading list:
Sun Tzu - Art of War
von Clausewitz - On War
Adam Smith - Wealth of Nations
Henry George - Progress and Poverty
Sinclair Lewis - It can't happen here
Cicero - De Re Publica (aka Cicero's Republic) at least read Scipio's Dialog
Ludwig von Mises - Socialism (essay)

There are others I would recommend, but they need more context

 

[rick benjamin]

Each of us has faced, or will face the temptation to check out early.
When it happened to me, I didn't think the pain could be endured.
Then I think I got angry and decided to wait and see what could possibly happen next.
My divorce, dear john while in boot camp
Little red haired girl dumping me a month before the wedding
and so on.
The sun rises, rain will fall. One round per target.
My thanks to God who gives enough for each day...

 

[Member 34319]

Their economies start to improve.

More like we go to war with them.

Especially if it has to do with oil trade.

The dollar controls oil trade, we control the dollar, nations depend on oil for everything, therefor we control other nations.

 

[CoastRange57]

The dollar controls oil trade, we control the dollar, nations depend on oil for everything, therefor we control other nations.

Might want to rethink that one a bit. You did see the Saudis recently manipulate the oil market and get the oil sands basically shut down. Th EU is a big Saudi customer as well. All the Saudis and other OPEC countries have to do now that they got the greedy and corrupt American oil companies to go back to buying their product is go on a inflateded increase in oil prices and production, and they can cripple the American economy in about 30 days.

Were you around in 1977 and remember the lines to gas stations ??

 

[IronMonster]

So in going through this thread, this has been pretty involved... I'm sorry for your loss Iron. I lost a really close friend when I was younger, but he was killed in a motor cycle accident, still unexpected, tragic. This is year 12. I absolutely understand the bloom being off the rose.

That said, I'm going to take a few minutes to crap on a few ideas:

First, currency is currency, and assets are assets: In general, when the market goes up, the price of gold goes down, the reverse is also true. I do not consider precious metals as a good investment long term unless you're really just looking for an outlet for money you couldn't spend any other way. It may shield you from inflation, but that's about it. Gold is likely the worst investment vehicle of all, as it never beats the market, and never catches up to inflation until the market tanks. The market is also a crappy investment, as the movement of money is not tangible until action is taken. Buying and holding stock is kinda like keeping your money on the pass line, it's fine until someone craps out.

On the other hand, your 100 tons of equipment is a solid investment, because it has the means to constantly produce value without it's value being diminished. Think of it this way: if I buy an axe, I cut and sell firewood, I'm taking something that has a relatively low utility value: trees, using my axe to turn trees into something I can sell: firewood or lumber. What I have sold is my labor, I still have an axe. If I invest in a faster means (say a chainsaw, or a sawmill) I get more product for an equal amount of labor, I earn more money, and the process grows. If you really need to get out from under the 100 tons of equipment you have, you can turn it into cash, which you can then buy another 50 tons of more efficient equipment.

Next, I think you're asking the wrong question as to whether "when" the SHTF, and it should more be a question of "If". While there are plenty of dire predictions out there, there's a few fundamentals that need to be remembered: Americans generally are a law abiding lot, we are one of the most well armed societies out there, but have murder rates orders of magnitude lower than other countries where guns are absolutely verboten. So asking "when" regular law abiding citizens are going to start walking around killing each other seems like the wrong question. Now, there might be isolated incidents and cases such as riots where it may seem like the whole world has lost it's mind, but that could only be a few square blocks. The only exception I see to this case is if the government completely loses it's mind and decides to go rogue, so what you get is essentially police rioting, don't laugh, it's happened, but it is an exceedingly rare event.

In general, the only way things would break down to this point is if some event occurred that prevented people from putting food in their mouths, not 1-2, not 100-200k, I mean everyone. Really the only circumstances I see that happening: a seriously lethal pandemic illness, or an event along the lines of a thermonuclear exchange.

Much of the SHTF thinking is really nothing but violence porn and fan-fic. I completely understand why it's so sexy, when you think about yourself as the hero of some as yet unwritten history. But it's a fantasy, where you shoot straighter and faster than the people shooting at you, your bullets rip their bodies apart, while theirs are stopped by your armor... Fantasy can be a good healthy outlet, however if it's all you indulge in, it can be really bad.

At it's worst, the whole of "prepper" culture is nothing more than a race in which he who has the most crap endorsed by W blogger, X youtube channel, or Y survivalist author wins. When it really matters it's not a matter of who has the most crap it's a matter of who can see and hear better, who is better rested, and who has the better assessment of his adversary.

What much of survivalism comes down to for me at least is keeping your priorities straight in the face of adversity, and developing tools for what will help you do that. The two most important things to me are my family and my freedom, everything else is simply a means to help me maintain those two things.

One problem that I find happens a lot in "prepper" circles is it tends to be an echo chamber, in that there's always this fever pitch to get an off-grid ranch, that's just a front end for the warren of reinforced concrete bunkers underneath, stocked with several centuries of food. All the while being dismissive of everyone who can't or won't do this as "sheeple".

While as someone who was once a teenage boy, I think a huge fort in the woods would be friggin awesome, I mean I remember building forts when I was a kid, and it was really cool, but as you have made the point, how practical is it, and does it serve the original mission of preserving the most important things?

What I really suggest is take the time and do some reading, and stop listening to the pundits put on the air by advertisers, and give yourself some perspective. While I like listening to Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, and Clyde Lewis, none of them have my individual best interest at heart, they have to sell ads to stay on the air and put food in their food holes.

Here's my reading list:
Sun Tzu - Art of War
von Clausewitz - On War
Adam Smith - Wealth of Nations
Henry George - Progress and Poverty
Sinclair Lewis - It can't happen here
Cicero - De Re Publica (aka Cicero's Republic) at least read Scipio's Dialog
Ludwig von Mises - Socialism (essay)

There are others I would recommend, but they need more context

While there is nothing in your over all picture that I have a big issue with, I do disagree with a few of your finer points.

You are making some assumptions about gold based on the dollar. If your assumptions about the dollar are not correct then we arrive at a very different outcome. If the dollar remains strong and the word continues its use of the USD gold will remain a relatively unimportant factor in wealth preservation. Gold is not an investment any more than dollars are an investment (both can be, neither one particularly good) What gold is is money that will thrive if the dollar drops or fails. Historically fiat money systems have an extremely poor track record (as in 100% failure rate over time) World reserve currency status is temporary and based on the fiscal soundness of the issuing country. When you buy gold and silver you are placing a bet that the US has squandered its exorbitant privilege and the balance of the world will no longer tolerate its reckless fiscal policy.

This I think will happen. If it does nothing you own that is priced in dollars will do well. It does not matter if it is stocks, bonds, farm ground or machinery, it will all be worth fewer dollars, however you will be able to trade gold and silver for multiples of as many dollars as before. My hope is not to hoard piles of shiny metal but to trade it for real goods at the most opportune time.

Its pretty easy to see in real life. In the last year the price of gold in Russia has doubled. Its not because the value of the gold is any different than before, its because the Ruble has collapsed in relation to other currency making it weaker. This is what will make gold an attractive thing to hold during the coming economic turbulence that is already baked in the cake by reckless monetary policy. Its not that you will have generated wealth, its that you will have preserved purchasing power while that of the dollar fails allowing you to make the best use of that purchasing power.

By betting on gold you are betting that one of two things will happen, that we have an extreme inflationary cycle or that the dollar collapse in relation to other currency. Currently we are in the deflationary cycle that proceeds the inflationary cycle. In all the great inflationary cycles you read about this is how it works. The velocity of money craters, liquidity craters and the money men only see one option -increase the money supply.





Check and check. So what happens next? Well if we pull out of the deflationary cycle and the economy starts working like it should, we see massive inflation (inflation is a monetary phenomenon, as you should know if you have read Mises ) So we have three times the amount of currency in the system that we did prior to 2007 however we have had no inflation because the velocity of money has cratered. All this new currency in essence has been used by banks and wall street to create the third largest stock market rally we have experienced in the history of wall street. That is where we have seen the inflation, in the form of stock valuations that do not reflect the underlying economy (which my any metric is not able to justify the hockey stick stock market gains of the last 5 years). The stock market will revert to mean, or it will collapse entirely (only be be born as something else, but still) but it cannot and will not continue on its current path. P/E ratio's have only been higher one time in the history of the market, during the tech bubble. This is the 3rd longest rally in history. Yet the employment participation rate in the US is cratering, The Baltic Dry index, a measure of how much freight moves around the world is at historic lows. The demand for oil, the life blood of industry has cratered.

Bubbles always follow the same path.

We are currently either in the delusion phase or the New Paradigm phase of the current stock bubble. The crash always overshoots the mean. Being fully invested in the stock market right now because it a better investment than gold is just a silly notion. At this phase of the market I am looking for wealth preservation, not an investment. A major correction is imminent, at the bottom of the chart above is when you want to buy. As Warren Buffet says 'You should be scared when everyone else is greedy, and greedy when everyone else is scared"

The other thing that may happen is the crash be so bad that the dollar becomes a casualty. It is a small chance, but it could happen. If it does than nothing you have in dollars will be worth a damn. And having gold to buy cheap assets will make you look like a freakin genius.

There is no such thing as a sure bet, however I am not just blindly doing something. I have history on my side and lots of examples through history that show what works.

One thing I am sure of, Having your wealth tied up in the market right now is foolish, there is simply no way we will see massive moves to the upside from here. At the very best we will start to move sidways and at the worst we will see drops of 50-70% over the coming years. There are presidents, look at Japan. They where just a few years ahead of us but we are on the same path.



They have never recovered from the 89 crash, My personal feeling is the crash ahead will be our equivalent.

If you look at a gold chart in yen next toe the NIKKI stock index you will see that in the last 20 years the stock market index has dropped by over 60% while the price of gold has gone up 500% THAT is what I am betting on.

Its a bet, so is everything else.

 

[IronMonster]

The other thing most people fail to grasp, Those that take the biggest risks are often the most safety conscious. It does not matter if you are taking physical or monetary risk, if you are sane you take great care to understand what it is you are doing and the risks involved.

 

[Just Jim]

While there is nothing in your over all picture that I have a big issue with, I do disagree with a few of your finer points.

You are making some assumptions about gold based on the dollar. If your assumptions about the dollar are not correct then we arrive at a very different outcome. If the dollar remains strong and the word continues its use of the USD gold will remain a relatively unimportant factor in wealth preservation. Gold is not an investment any more than dollars are an investment (both can be, neither one particularly good) What gold is is money that will thrive if the dollar drops or fails. Historically fiat money systems have an extremely poor track record (as in 100% failure rate over time) World reserve currency status is temporary and based on the fiscal soundness of the issuing country. When you buy gold and silver you are placing a bet that the US has squandered its exorbitant privilege and the balance of the world will no longer tolerate its reckless fiscal policy.

This I think will happen. If it does nothing you own that is priced in dollars will do well. It does not matter if it is stocks, bonds, farm ground or machinery, it will all be worth fewer dollars, however you will be able to trade gold and silver for multiples of as many dollars as before. My hope is not to hoard piles of shiny metal but to trade it for real goods at the most opportune time.

Its pretty easy to see in real life. In the last year the price of gold in Russia has doubled. Its not because the value of the gold is any different than before, its because the Ruble has collapsed in relation to other currency making it weaker. This is what will make gold an attractive thing to hold during the coming economic turbulence that is already baked in the cake by reckless monetary policy. Its not that you will have generated wealth, its that you will have preserved purchasing power while that of the dollar fails allowing you to make the best use of that purchasing power.

By betting on gold you are betting that one of two things will happen, that we have an extreme inflationary cycle or that the dollar collapse in relation to other currency. Currently we are in the deflationary cycle that proceeds the inflationary cycle. In all the great inflationary cycles you read about this is how it works. The velocity of money craters, liquidity craters and the money men only see one option -increase the money supply.



View attachment 220844

View attachment 220843 Check and check. So what happens next? Well if we pull out of the deflationary cycle and the economy starts working like it should, we see massive inflation (inflation is a monetary phenomenon, as you should know if you have read Mises ) So we have three times the amount of currency in the system that we did prior to 2007 however we have had no inflation because the velocity of money has cratered. All this new currency in essence has been used by banks and wall street to create the third largest stock market rally we have experienced in the history of wall street. That is where we have seen the inflation, in the form of stock valuations that do not reflect the underlying economy (which my any metric is not able to justify the hockey stick stock market gains of the last 5 years). The stock market will revert to mean, or it will collapse entirely (only be be born as something else, but still) but it cannot and will not continue on its current path. P/E ratio's have only been higher one time in the history of the market, during the tech bubble. This is the 3rd longest rally in history. Yet the employment participation rate in the US is cratering, The Baltic Dry index, a measure of how much freight moves around the world is at historic lows. The demand for oil, the life blood of industry has cratered.

Bubbles always follow the same path.
View attachment 220845
We are currently either in the delusion phase or the New Paradigm phase of the current stock bubble. The crash always overshoots the mean. Being fully invested in the stock market right now because it a better investment than gold is just a silly notion. At this phase of the market I am looking for wealth preservation, not an investment. A major correction is imminent, at the bottom of the chart above is when you want to buy. As Warren Buffet says 'You should be scared when everyone else is greedy, and greedy when everyone else is scared"

The other thing that may happen is the crash be so bad that the dollar becomes a casualty. It is a small chance, but it could happen. If it does than nothing you have in dollars will be worth a damn. And having gold to buy cheap assets will make you look like a freakin genius.

There is no such thing as a sure bet, however I am not just blindly doing something. I have history on my side and lots of examples through history that show what works.

One thing I am sure of, Having your wealth tied up in the market right now is foolish, there is simply no way we will see massive moves to the upside from here. At the very best we will start to move sidways and at the worst we will see drops of 50-70% over the coming years. There are presidents, look at Japan. They where just a few years ahead of us but we are on the same path.

View attachment 220846

They have never recovered from the 89 crash, My personal feeling is the crash ahead will be our equivalent.

If you look at a gold chart in yen next toe the NIKKI stock index you will see that in the last 20 years the stock market index has dropped by over 60% while the price of gold has gone up 500% THAT is what I am betting on.

Its a bet, so is everything else.

Really nice of you to put all that together for us but fact is numbers no longer have any meaning cause the show is crooked and run by politics. In a normal world you would be right but it's not normal now. We are trillions in debt so in a normal world we as a country would be bankrupt. It all would have crashed years ago in the real world but today we live a lie. When the truth gets recognized the USA will crash and burn.

Globalism and what the other countries are doing to crash the dollar will bring back reality.

 

[IronMonster]

If you look at or think of nothing else think about this.

We know that 95 to 2001 was a bubble.

We know that 2002 to 2007 was a bubble.

<broken link removed>


Yet somehow you are able to come to the conclusion that the most vertical and non nonsensical rise in the 100 year chart, that from 2009 to today is most defiantly not a bubble.

Mmm, yeah.

draw a line though that chart from 1915 through 2015, You end up with a Dow Jones level of about 4500, we are currently at over 18,000 so just to get back to a 100 year mean we need a 75% drop, Crashes always overshoot. So really we could see a 90% drop.

Will it happen? Well nothing else makes sense so there is no reason to think this is any different. But to think its not a possibility is silly. Especially considering our debt levels and the lack of fiscal responsibility. Its going to be ugly and the generation wealth of most people will vanish. Only those with real assets will survive. Because of this there will be a lot of angry folks. That is what I see as the danger, not the evaporation of paper wealth that never really existed in the first place.

If you could print money to create wealth, the USSR, Germany, Mexico, Zimbabwe and the rest of the lot would be just as strong as the US is today. But you cant, it never works in the long run. We are just the latest of a long run of country's to try. Our failure will be the most spectacular, rivaled only maybe by the Roman Empire. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

 

[AMProducts]

While there is nothing in your over all picture that I have a big issue with, I do disagree with a few of your finer points.

I appreciate your desire to invest in gold, my argument stems from two factors:

1) Gold's value is generally based on the value of the base metal. If I make something out of gold, it's value is rarely greater than the value of the gold, unless I'm selling it at retail (i.e. if I was a jeweler).
2) Many things that are made of less expensive materials (steel, copper, lead) have much higher value compared to the base material price. If I make say a gun out of steel, it may only represent $20 in steel, but it's price at sale is easily a factor 25x greater.

At the same time, if you buy gold, you're often paying a premium over the price of the gold, and when you sell gold, you're selling it for the spot price of the gold, that means there's always a percentage lost in the transaction. In a way, this is like buying and selling stock, you're always dealing with a commission that must be paid to another party. In that vein, I would rather be someone who buys and sells stocks, gold etc on behalf of someone else, as any time there is a transaction I make money.

That said, I have zero interest in investing in either gold, stocks, or currency. My investment strategy is based entirely on buying either means of production, or raw materials that I can co-mingle with my labor and sell for a higher price. Since any amount of cash I have is used to buy more means and more materials, investing in some kind of "store of wealth" is pointless, because that ties up my operating capital.

 

[Just Jim]

If you look at or think of nothing else think about this.

We know that 95 to 2001 was a bubble.

We know that 2002 to 2007 was a bubble.

<broken link removed>


Yet somehow you are able to come to the conclusion that the most vertical and non nonsensical rise in the 100 year chart, that from 2009 to today is most defiantly not a bubble.

Mmm, yeah.

draw a line though that chart from 1915 through 2015, You end up with a Dow Jones level of about 4500, we are currently at over 18,000 so just to get back to a 100 year mean we need a 75% drop, Crashes always overshoot. So really we could see a 90% drop.

Will it happen? Well nothing else makes sense so there is no reason to think this is any different. But to think its not a possibility is silly. Especially considering our debt levels and the lack of fiscal responsibility. Its going to be ugly and the generation wealth of most people will vanish. Only those with real assets will survive. Because of this there will be a lot of angry folks. That is what I see as the danger, not the evaporation of paper wealth that never really existed in the first place.

If you could print money to create wealth, the USSR, Germany, Mexico, Zimbabwe and the rest of the lot would be just as strong as the US is today. But you cant, it never works in the long run. We are just the latest of a long run of country's to try. Our failure will be the most spectacular, rivaled only maybe by the Roman Empire. The bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Numbers no longer have meaning. We have over 100 million Americans unemployed yet the numbers say we have low unemployment. We live in a lie that politicians just make up numbers and run the country with lies.

 

[Just Jim]

Gold prices are controlled, might as well have used car guys running the market.

 

[Provincial]

I appreciate your desire to invest in gold, my argument stems from two factors:

1) Gold's value is generally based on the value of the base metal. If I make something out of gold, it's value is rarely greater than the value of the gold, unless I'm selling it at retail (i.e. if I was a jeweler).
2) Many things that are made of less expensive materials (steel, copper, lead) have much higher value compared to the base material price. If I make say a gun out of steel, it may only represent $20 in steel, but it's price at sale is easily a factor 25x greater.

At the same time, if you buy gold, you're often paying a premium over the price of the gold, and when you sell gold, you're selling it for the spot price of the gold, that means there's always a percentage lost in the transaction. In a way, this is like buying and selling stock, you're always dealing with a commission that must be paid to another party. In that vein, I would rather be someone who buys and sells stocks, gold etc on behalf of someone else, as any time there is a transaction I make money.

That said, I have zero interest in investing in either gold, stocks, or currency. My investment strategy is based entirely on buying either means of production, or raw materials that I can co-mingle with my labor and sell for a higher price. Since any amount of cash I have is used to buy more means and more materials, investing in some kind of "store of wealth" is pointless, because that ties up my operating capital.

Your strategy works - as long as you have customers that have the means to buy your product. That was the biggest problem during the Great Depression.

 

[Just Jim]

Your strategy works - as long as you have customers that have the means to buy your product. That was the biggest problem during the Great Depression.

Ya I always laugh when they say "gold is going to $5,000". It just might but who is going to have $5,000 to buy it when the average 401k has $18,000 in it.

 

[AMProducts]

Your strategy works - as long as you have customers that have the means to buy your product. That was the biggest problem during the Great Depression.

You are correct, however if someone can't afford my products, then they certainly can't afford gold. At the same time, what I produce (ammunition, accessories) cost orders of magnitude less, and have a higher utility value. Given that I have means of production, instead of producing ammunition or accessories, I can produce many other things, general machine parts, medical supplies (hypodermic needles), etc. If I have gold, I can either plate things with it, manufacture microelectronics, or I can sell it. One of the things about gold is that it has a very low utility value.

 

[Provincial]

When times get really tough, the ability to fix things becomes valuable. The combination of tools and talent is the key.

 

[Just Jim]

The other thing most people fail to grasp, Those that take the biggest risks are often the most safety conscious. It does not matter if you are taking physical or monetary risk, if you are sane you take great care to understand what it is you are doing and the risks involved.

I found when it comes to money it takes real salesman to sell you risk. They have all kinds of charts and history telling you why you need to put your money up for risk and normally play on a person's greed to get them involved. Vegas is full of risk takers with all the dreams of being rich.

The people in my lifetime that get ahead do it with mostly hard work,luck and inflation. They bought when they were young and held on to things letting inflation make them money. They worked very hard with two jobs and invested in rentals or they were lucky enough to have rich parents.

Let me ask you, what will the world be like when gold goes up another 500%?

 

[NONAME762]

Since I don't have any gold all that will likely happen is the stuff I buy regularly will just cost me more.

 

[Medic!]

When?

Take a look around. Money wise. It's already happened! It's happening now!
We live in the shadow of ''2008''.

Look at the way we are living in America today. Look at your future today through your ''1992'' eyes. Remember all the job offers and easy money?

Today We ask ""How bad is it gona get''? Not ''When will it get bad''? Opportunity wise. It is bad!
Or futures do not look very financially rosy. Everyone is wondering when the other shoe will drop?
Doesn't matter if it gets worse. People today have ''Great Depression'' mentality. And it's the perceived lack of prosperity that perpetuates our gloom and doom attitude.

Not to say life is not also good. I will always love my family. And will enjoy every moment with them. Even if we all live in a cave.

We will always be surviving something.

I have had over a dozen major surgeries. I survived Cancer, being shot, and many illnesses. For some reason they didn't kill me? [Even though I'm held together by titanium plates and screws. And missing some parts]. And they didn't hurt as bad as loosing my brother, or best friend.

Loosing people will bend and cripple you in a way no bullet or illness can. It will twist your soul.
Of all the things I survived or accomplished. Keeping my sanity is what I'm most proud of.

I admit I feel weaker emotionally. But I bet I'm really stronger? I don't know.
Anyways I've been tested. As we all are.

 

[rick benjamin]

Hang in there Medic!
Once the bones knit, the plates n screws can be removed.
When you feel weaker, you acknowledge the partial pressures.
Affirming reality is centering.
There's tomorrow, oh crap!
I mean Wednesday!

 

[Sam Kinard]

This topic is such an incredibly individual and subjective one. Each persons idea of what is "right" will always contradict another's point of view. I think the only real answer to questions like "When does "IT" hit the fan?" is to present your individual perspective and experience.

For us, SHTF in '06 or '07 when we realized that we were stuck in a fake community, we were bought and sold with fake money, we were regularly taxed 4,5,6 or more times on various products(after our paychecks were pinched before they were even handed to us), we were under the thumb of politicians that pushed their standing as an elite ruling class and our standing as their subjects, we watched our children begin to be indoctrinated into the collective and were told they were "community property" to be raised asking only how they can conform and serve. We were truly convinced that the shallow, vapid emptiness of any metropolitan area was where taste and decency went to die, or places where taste and decency had never set foot in the first place.

We first started talking about fantastical things along the lines of Swiss Family Robinson or a Batcave 13,000 feet in The Rockies. It all seemed to be this unreachable dream and we were destined to die at our desk, just before sending in the last payment on our 30 year mortgage like good little workers. After realizing that every scenario isn't an Apocalyptic one, we got serious.

We paid off all debts and worked our fingers to the bone, putting away each and every dime we could. We did not own status symbol cars, designer clothes, nor did we/do we take vacations or eat at restaurants. In less than 4 years of working weekends and REALLY putting our nose to the grindstone, we left our jobs, family, friends and Portland, OR behind after purchasing our home for cash somewhere in the Chiloquin/Sprague River/Bonanza/Not-Quite-To-Lake-County rural nowhere. We will never owe a bank a dime and we will never have more than one neighbor we can see. We have enough acreage to sustain anything short of cattle and make one monthly trip to the "city" for the groceries or supplies we don't provide ourselves.

On the surface, this can appear to be an extreme paranoid reaction to those that appreciate the convenience of living in a city. Though we would be liars to deny the convenience and to a certain degree the "comfort" of city living, we were done with it in every way. My entire point has been that living a survival lifestyle and getting back to something simple can be not only preparation for what is surely coming, but a more fulfilling and wonderful life. For example, when arguing the "right and wrong" of "dropping out", it is my belief that when discussing with someone on the opposite end of the spectrum(one that makes a point of NOT having ANYTHING put away for a rainy day because they would then have to acknowledge that a rainy day may actually come), if they are "right" we die after leading long, rewarding lives and we have heirloom seeds and self-sufficiency skills that we pass to our children while those that chose their own way lived their lives with a Starbucks on each corner and people everywhere they turn and if that is happiness for them, who am I to argue? On the other hand, if we are "right" and the house of cards does fall, we still get the long life, heirloom seeds and self-sufficiency skills passed to the next generation.

I didn't leave what I believe to be a wildly fake and brainwashed "society" to hide in the mountains, I left to get to what I believe is real living. I didn't do it because James Wesley, Rawles, Jerry Ahern or Mel Tappan made it sound romantic. I did it because Vardis Fisher, Osborne Russell and my own family members showed me a level of freedom that is simply unattainable in ANY city.

I too have wished for the end to be hastened because of my disgust with every lie that is continually forced down our throats. In the end, we were able to leave it all behind and if the dollar failed or any other "collapse" situation happened, we would have to log onto the interwebs to find out about it. At this point it can fall or keep going. Either way, it won't change our principles or practices.

Best of luck to all those trying to live honestly and decently. Acknowledging and accepting that fake employment numbers, fake currency and a fake stock market will be the norm until it falls is the first step. The second step is realizing what YOU can do about YOUR situation. The third step is summoning up the gumption and courage to do something about it. Getting here was so incredibly scary and daunting. Now that we've been here for years, the memories of Portland life are more and more like a movie I watched about a dude pulling his hair out over the insanity of constantly swimming against the current.

Grab the horse by it's reins and hold on tight. You'll break her or she'll throw you. Just don't stay throwed. Get back on and eventually you'll be riding a gentle beast that has learned to move at your speed and My Dear Lord, it's worth every mouthful of dirt to get there.