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So when does "IT" hit the fan?

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by IronMonster, Mar 18, 2015.

  1. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    Im getting tired of waiting for the end of the world as we know it.

    I am not exactly a die hard prepper but I have taken steps and believe in trying to be self sufficient. I feel pretty confident that I have done pretty much everything I could do withing my financial means to plan for the future what ever it might hold. I have read most of the doomsayers books. Peter Shiff, Harry Dent, Eric Sprott, Wolf Richter, James Rickards, David Stockman, Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson and a host of others. I honestly think they are right. I think the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20. I think we are in the middle of a real depression that will carry on for at least the next 5-7 years and the worst leg is yet to come. I dont know if that's the end of the world as we know it, but I think we will have some tough times and I think a lot of people will be angry when promises get broken.

    Thing is I was sure 3-4 years ago that the crash was just months away, that this crazy paper money binge would never work and people would see the stock market and recovery where all a sham. Well I couldn't have been more wrong. I pulled all our retirement money out 3-4 years or so ago to "protect" it. Worse yet is I put much of it in gold and silver to "preserve" my spending power. Well the market has gone up 50-70% since then and precious metals have tanked by half. The combination has been brutal to my long term plans. The thing is I still think I was right, just early. Problem being, early is the same as wrong. Even if I am right I did the wrong thing. That is easy to say in hindsight. If I would have timed it right Id look like a genius, instead I look like a crackpot.

    The stock market is crazy, there is simply no way the economy supports the current valuations. The hockey stick up swing was created with freshly minted pretend money in a crazy monetary experiment that I think is doomed to create a much bigger problem than the one it was trying to "fix"

    So what do you think? Do you think we are going to have money problems? Do you think there are other concerns that are bigger? I get tired of reading the same doom and gloom on Zerohedge and all the other pages day after day. Ever since I have been reading those pages the crash was eminent, and is still. Nothing changes. There is some fresh hell someplace in the world dang near every day yet the powers that be have managed to keep it together one more day. Thing is I keep reading them, I keep agreeing with them and they keep being wrong (or at least early)
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2015
  2. erudne

    erudne The Pie Matrix PPL Say Sleeping W/Your Rifle Is A bad Thing? Bronze Supporter

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    I don't read ZeroHedge but I follow world events closely. I cashed out in 2009, even my IRA. If you can manage a part time job for extra income then go for it but don't second guess your decisions as things are descending further into financial and social chaos around the world, Europe is teetering as is America, Russia is in turmoil and china is not stable either
     
  3. ZA_Survivalist

    ZA_Survivalist Oregon AK's all day.

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    It is coming 5-10 years..
    Our economy will crash..
    I cashed out my 401K and invested in things I needed. Gasoline is the only thing I dont readily store..

    My bet is if we get wind of a new war.. That'll be the start of the end.. We're too poor to carry on a fight.
     
  4. rick benjamin

    rick benjamin USA, Or, Damascus Secure the drama Silver Supporter 2016 Volunteer

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    When life grows lemons, make lemonaid
    Are you clinically depressed, or is it the company you keep?
    When the stock market crashes, what is the best stock pick to throw money at?
    Money problems? What money?

    While the world and people around you crumble, what do you DO!?
    Depends.
    If you are in debt, someone will come for their/your money. Fix that issue asap, pay your debt(s).
    When you do, your money is YOUR MONEY.
    Shop for groceries, buy a little extra every time.
    When "it" hits, hunker down.

    NWF Ironmonster parody.jpg

    Found you a new avatar :D
     
  5. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    Shoot, Your behind the times man, That WAS my avatar. Thats so last month
     
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  6. boogerhook

    boogerhook Seattle Well-Known Member

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    I got scared too in 2008, but somehow managed to get back in before the train had left the station. The old diversification strategy, metal, real estate, and stocks is still a valid one. The other strategy is to buy regularly and not depend on always buying at the best price. The market cannot be timed. Many have tried and failed. Pace it. Every month the same amount into the three baskets. Just 2 cents from someone who has learned the hard way. ;-)
     
  7. erudne

    erudne The Pie Matrix PPL Say Sleeping W/Your Rifle Is A bad Thing? Bronze Supporter

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    Someone mentioned Depends
    th?id=HN.608012746495495983&pid=15.1&P=0.jpg
     
  8. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    I got skills man, Mad skills. :D

    If things go to hell I'll probably be in more demand than I am now and currently my schedule is full till August. I am not worried, I just think its going to happen and if it is I wish it would hurry up already. I have been acting "as if" things are going to hell and it gets tiring. I cant close my eyes to the world around us. I am a news junky and I read a hundred books a year or so. I would probably be happier if I was oblivious, but I am so far off the other scale is probably not healthy.

    Thing is most everything I read is about how screwed everything is, you cant help but try to work out a path. I am not worried about me, I have lost it all once already. I came to Seattle with a 40 year old Chevy and a bag full of dirty laundry $100 grand in debt in 2001 after a bad divorce where I walked away from everything. Since being here I have built a couple of businesses and bought a few houses. Even though Ive only had 14 years to recoup I am in a better position than 90% of folks my age (meaning I actually have a net worth, assets and real skills)

    I actually would like to liquidate my assets and move out to the boonies. However I got a wife who has a great job with 20 years in at the same company. A mother in law who lives with us who is slowly dying with cancer and a 6000 sq foot shop full of maybe a 100 tons of gear. Picking up and going just aint going to happen. I am stuck for at least the next few years. If things go to hell I am going to have to ride it out in Gotham/Seattle at least for the first few years. I have 40 acres in southern Idaho and will end up there eventually, It cant happen soon enough for me, however going will pretty much be the end of my easy money income stream. I do mostly high end work and there simply is not enough money to do there what I do here. I can make a living anyplace, but the numbers will be 20% probably of what I am making here.
     
  9. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    I buy $150 worth of gold and $50 worth of silver every month, so I have bought some to cost average, but the big chunks I bought where considerably higher than todays prices. I spent an easy 60 grand on metal that is now worth about 30. At the same time I also probably missed out on enough gains on my 401K money to buy a house in southern Idaho where I want to go.
    I also have probably a $20,000 inventory of steel which if SHTF will probably be worth more than shiny metal and as a blacksmith/fabricator I can do a lot of stuff with it that will make it quite a bit more valuable than raw iron.


    Point is I am in a great spot to ride it out, I plan on thriving when things fall apart and have set myself up to do so. So its not fear, nor is it anticipation. I am just sick of this feeling of being on the edge waiting for the ball to drop. I have plans that made sense when I made them 4 years ago thinking the end was nigh that are beginning to look silly even to me.

    I guess I am saying I am ready, but tired of waiting o_O
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2015
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  10. boogerhook

    boogerhook Seattle Well-Known Member

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    I hear you, but I don't think the next depression will be anything like the great depression, or the crash that happened before. If you truly believe in a running inflation (which could happen) borrow as much money as you can to purchase real property - that's how the Rockefellers made it big. Don't wait for the disaster, enjoy your life ;-)
     
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  11. forefathersrback

    forefathersrback Central Oregon Well-Known Member

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    IronMonster; Nice thread I like it! Our national debt is way to high, it can not recover. IMO whether a person invests in real estate, or precious metals, it's useless. It's a rigged game. Any more, everything is a ponzi scheme. The biggest robbery of all time, was in our recent downturn. Middle class America got robbed of their wealth, and continues to get robbed! Illegals are flooding into this country taking jobs, that used to be family wage jobs, for Americans. Inflation, every time we go to the store it is costing more. Can't keep up with it! "Buy futures,sell futures, when there are no futures". { from the movie Devil's advocate, greed speech}
     
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  12. U201491

    U201491 Well-Known Member

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    I have liked every post in this thread up to this one.... but I just cannot put a like on anything with that spooky of an image on it ROFLMAO....
     
  13. etrain16

    etrain16 Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    This is always a tough subject. Since no one can really predict the future, it's awfully hard to say what you may need to plan for. Will the S hit the F in our lifetimes? Maybe, maybe not. I think some reasonable amount of preparation and precaution is prudent. But at what point does it cross the line from being prudent to perhaps being wasteful? So many people have cried about the sky falling throughout the history of the world. Yet looking at those that warned of impending doom, we must notice, we're still here. Sure, borders have changed, leaderships changed, rulers have changed, but the human race continues to survive, and, in many cases, thrive.

    Of course many things can lead to chaos, not just political unrest, but natural disasters - and honestly, I'm probably more concerned about the 'big one' hitting here in Oregon than I am about our entire economy collapsing underneath us. I believe our country is capable of sustaining major hits without completely dissolving. I'm reminded of a good friend from Munich. He took a big financial hit after the wall fell and East Germany was reunited with West Germany. Overnight their economy took a massive hit as the East Germans, who had little, were suddenly thrust into the thriving West Germany economy. As he told me, the value of his German Marks took a nosedive and there was nothing he could do about it. But eventually they got stabilized and he was able to work back to a good place again. Sure there are those that would be hard pressed to survive if their local Starbuck's closed tomorrow, but a lot of people in this country are hard workers and have skills that translate into use beyond their current occupation. My buddy in Germany kept working hard through that tough time and survived. Just as Iron Monster stated, his skills and abilities could be very useful in many different SHTF/WROL scenarios. Heck, I may just have to barter some food with him to have him weld some steel plates on my newly acquired bug-out vehicle post SHTF ;)

    When it comes to storing/hoarding items, I think it's best to focus on things that can be turned easily back into cash in the event that you find yourself toward the end of your life, only to find the S never did hit the F. Holding excessive amounts of perishable items, like food, will be a net loss in the end if SHTF never happens. At some point, you may find you're no longer physically able to keep up with the demands of a prepper lifestyle and will need to find some comfort in the care of others. At that time, money will be important (assuming it's still in use ;)). So stocking up on things like ammo, even precious metals, might be a good idea, but I don't know if I would agree with divesting yourself of all retirement options, you may just find some day that all that potential earning you've lost may not have been worth it.

    Either way, it's all a crap shoot. We're either betting the world will end or it won't in our lifetimes. Some of us will be right, some will be wrong. Only time will tell.
     
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  14. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

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    Just giving you a point a view. People can be lead around by the nose using fear. Fear is a big motivator and actually does more harm than good. Fear clouds the mind so you can't use common sense on your approach to life and what is truly important. It's better to recognize our fears and do the right thing regardless.

    Doom and gloom can grab your life and turn it to crap. It's not seeing a good future that kills it for most people. I have seen this effect most of my life in a lot of different places. There are religions that teach doom and gloom and the followers can't wait to die. There are races that live doom and gloom and are just waiting to murder other races. Doom and gloom isn't living, you are preparing to die.

    Peppers used to be called survivalist. They were those who bought things and training to help them survive the bad things that can happen. It's an insurance policy that helps you go on living even "IF" things go bad. You do your best to stay alive and live the life you want not what others tell you to live like.

    Buy your stuff and put it away then go on about your life. Make your choices with common sense and you won't regret them. You only get one life so make the most of every minute. Don't buy stuff that others control the value of like PMs unless you can turn a profit quickly.

    Just my point of view and it's worth what you paid for it.:D
     
  15. CoastRange57

    CoastRange57 Western Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    This is a key point. It is simply impossible for this country to extract itself from the debt load, mostly payable to foreign institutions and the fiat Fed. I worked doing corporate turnarounds (mostly construction oriented companies) back in the early 2000's. Aggressive financial reorganization, major operational and cultural changes and PAIN is required. It simply cannot happen. The decline is expotential and will continue to increase.

    Natural disasters will play little effect, since they are generally localized, but when the Fed's lose their ability to borrow huge amounts of money to replace local infrastructures, those areas will decline even faster and deeper.

    The people who are now spending it as fast as thy make it are the ones who will get killed financially. The Intel wennies who drive their 70K King Ranch F 350s every day, those who have 2 to 3 car payments, those who have to have the granite counter tops, and the latest toys, no matter the cost because they have these 150K jobs...those who feel they "deserve" it because they have "earned" it.

    Notice how the Saudi ragheads have managed to creep the price of oil back up to a level where they make huge profits, yet keep the price just below where it makes it cost effective to work the oil sands ??
     
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  16. Reno911

    Reno911 Hillsboro Well-Known Member 2015 Volunteer 2016 Volunteer

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    I was caught up in the craziness there for a while. It can get tiresome, planning and waiting. Then I came around to the idea of living. That's right, enjoying today as much as I hope to be able to tomorrow.

    Plan all you want, invest all you want. No one knows what will happen when it does hit. So stop freaking out about it. Live your life. Stop reading end of the world books, stop reading certain online news sites. Get outside, go for a hike, go
    fishing, go enjoy life.

    The idea is to be ready, not on alert.

    That's my thoughts on it. Iron you may already be living your life, I don't know. However, I wouldn't worry about waiting anymore. Just kick back and try to enjoy things more.
     
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  17. Hamilton Felix

    Hamilton Felix Marblemount, Washington Active Member

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    Economy has been a house of cards for years. Heck, if remediation hadn't worked and we'd had big power outages during the Y2K rollover, people would have rushed to their banks on Monday and the panic would have been on. In the last 15 years, things have only gotten more precarious, the debt situation worse, our pitiful manufacturing situation worse, global political situation worse, not much sign of anything improving, because it's beyond repair. The impending derivatives collapse is vast beyond imagination. I cannot believe that IT is very far off.

    We've been watching the Dollar vs Euro war, but the Chinese have positioned themselves to become the next global currency. Our money is at this point just a line of BS, the paper only buys things as long as enough people believe in it. I really cannot see this lasting much longer. It's pretty obvious that the Ruling Class is preparing for very ugly times.

    Prepare as you can, avoid population centers.
     
  18. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

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    We all don't have to be able to see the future to know what will happen but no need to fear it. Just understand what the new world will be like and make preps to help get you by until it all settles down. There is nothing you can do to change the world but you can be ready to live in it when it changes. Be optimistic that life goes on and so will you, just keep your eyes up looking around so you don't get caught not paying attention.o_O
     
  19. edison bulb

    edison bulb Portland, OR Well-Known Member

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    The best thing to do is prepare but don't center your life around it. & don't blow your savings for it, either. You still have a life to enjoy right now!
     
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  20. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

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    Problem with the economy is very simple, real math no longer matters as its now all politics. Be it job numbers or the stock market it's all manipulated by politics so who knows when it will all crash or the story they will use to crash it. Just understand it's no longer real, what you have in your possession is all you will own when it does crash.
     
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