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So in going through this thread, this has been pretty involved... I'm sorry for your loss Iron. I lost a really close friend when I was younger, but he was killed in a motor cycle accident, still unexpected, tragic. This is year 12. I absolutely understand the bloom being off the rose.
That said, I'm going to take a few minutes to crap on a few ideas:
First, currency is currency, and assets are assets: In general, when the market goes up, the price of gold goes down, the reverse is also true. I do not consider precious metals as a good investment long term unless you're really just looking for an outlet for money you couldn't spend any other way. It may shield you from inflation, but that's about it. Gold is likely the worst investment vehicle of all, as it never beats the market, and never catches up to inflation until the market tanks. The market is also a crappy investment, as the movement of money is not tangible until action is taken. Buying and holding stock is kinda like keeping your money on the pass line, it's fine until someone craps out.
On the other hand, your 100 tons of equipment is a solid investment, because it has the means to constantly produce value without it's value being diminished. Think of it this way: if I buy an axe, I cut and sell firewood, I'm taking something that has a relatively low utility value: trees, using my axe to turn trees into something I can sell: firewood or lumber. What I have sold is my labor, I still have an axe. If I invest in a faster means (say a chainsaw, or a sawmill) I get more product for an equal amount of labor, I earn more money, and the process grows. If you really need to get out from under the 100 tons of equipment you have, you can turn it into cash, which you can then buy another 50 tons of more efficient equipment.
Next, I think you're asking the wrong question as to whether "when" the SHTF, and it should more be a question of "If". While there are plenty of dire predictions out there, there's a few fundamentals that need to be remembered: Americans generally are a law abiding lot, we are one of the most well armed societies out there, but have murder rates orders of magnitude lower than other countries where guns are absolutely verboten. So asking "when" regular law abiding citizens are going to start walking around killing each other seems like the wrong question. Now, there might be isolated incidents and cases such as riots where it may seem like the whole world has lost it's mind, but that could only be a few square blocks. The only exception I see to this case is if the government completely loses it's mind and decides to go rogue, so what you get is essentially police rioting, don't laugh, it's happened, but it is an exceedingly rare event.
In general, the only way things would break down to this point is if some event occurred that prevented people from putting food in their mouths, not 1-2, not 100-200k, I mean everyone. Really the only circumstances I see that happening: a seriously lethal pandemic illness, or an event along the lines of a thermonuclear exchange.
Much of the SHTF thinking is really nothing but violence porn and fan-fic. I completely understand why it's so sexy, when you think about yourself as the hero of some as yet unwritten history. But it's a fantasy, where you shoot straighter and faster than the people shooting at you, your bullets rip their bodies apart, while theirs are stopped by your armor... Fantasy can be a good healthy outlet, however if it's all you indulge in, it can be really bad.
At it's worst, the whole of "prepper" culture is nothing more than a race in which he who has the most crap endorsed by W blogger, X youtube channel, or Y survivalist author wins. When it really matters it's not a matter of who has the most crap it's a matter of who can see and hear better, who is better rested, and who has the better assessment of his adversary.
What much of survivalism comes down to for me at least is keeping your priorities straight in the face of adversity, and developing tools for what will help you do that. The two most important things to me are my family and my freedom, everything else is simply a means to help me maintain those two things.
One problem that I find happens a lot in "prepper" circles is it tends to be an echo chamber, in that there's always this fever pitch to get an off-grid ranch, that's just a front end for the warren of reinforced concrete bunkers underneath, stocked with several centuries of food. All the while being dismissive of everyone who can't or won't do this as "sheeple".
While as someone who was once a teenage boy, I think a huge fort in the woods would be friggin awesome, I mean I remember building forts when I was a kid, and it was really cool, but as you have made the point, how practical is it, and does it serve the original mission of preserving the most important things?
What I really suggest is take the time and do some reading, and stop listening to the pundits put on the air by advertisers, and give yourself some perspective. While I like listening to Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, and Clyde Lewis, none of them have my individual best interest at heart, they have to sell ads to stay on the air and put food in their food holes.
Here's my reading list:
Sun Tzu - Art of War
von Clausewitz - On War
Adam Smith - Wealth of Nations
Henry George - Progress and Poverty
Sinclair Lewis - It can't happen here
Cicero - De Re Publica (aka Cicero's Republic) at least read Scipio's Dialog
Ludwig von Mises - Socialism (essay)
There are others I would recommend, but they need more context
That said, I'm going to take a few minutes to crap on a few ideas:
First, currency is currency, and assets are assets: In general, when the market goes up, the price of gold goes down, the reverse is also true. I do not consider precious metals as a good investment long term unless you're really just looking for an outlet for money you couldn't spend any other way. It may shield you from inflation, but that's about it. Gold is likely the worst investment vehicle of all, as it never beats the market, and never catches up to inflation until the market tanks. The market is also a crappy investment, as the movement of money is not tangible until action is taken. Buying and holding stock is kinda like keeping your money on the pass line, it's fine until someone craps out.
On the other hand, your 100 tons of equipment is a solid investment, because it has the means to constantly produce value without it's value being diminished. Think of it this way: if I buy an axe, I cut and sell firewood, I'm taking something that has a relatively low utility value: trees, using my axe to turn trees into something I can sell: firewood or lumber. What I have sold is my labor, I still have an axe. If I invest in a faster means (say a chainsaw, or a sawmill) I get more product for an equal amount of labor, I earn more money, and the process grows. If you really need to get out from under the 100 tons of equipment you have, you can turn it into cash, which you can then buy another 50 tons of more efficient equipment.
Next, I think you're asking the wrong question as to whether "when" the SHTF, and it should more be a question of "If". While there are plenty of dire predictions out there, there's a few fundamentals that need to be remembered: Americans generally are a law abiding lot, we are one of the most well armed societies out there, but have murder rates orders of magnitude lower than other countries where guns are absolutely verboten. So asking "when" regular law abiding citizens are going to start walking around killing each other seems like the wrong question. Now, there might be isolated incidents and cases such as riots where it may seem like the whole world has lost it's mind, but that could only be a few square blocks. The only exception I see to this case is if the government completely loses it's mind and decides to go rogue, so what you get is essentially police rioting, don't laugh, it's happened, but it is an exceedingly rare event.
In general, the only way things would break down to this point is if some event occurred that prevented people from putting food in their mouths, not 1-2, not 100-200k, I mean everyone. Really the only circumstances I see that happening: a seriously lethal pandemic illness, or an event along the lines of a thermonuclear exchange.
Much of the SHTF thinking is really nothing but violence porn and fan-fic. I completely understand why it's so sexy, when you think about yourself as the hero of some as yet unwritten history. But it's a fantasy, where you shoot straighter and faster than the people shooting at you, your bullets rip their bodies apart, while theirs are stopped by your armor... Fantasy can be a good healthy outlet, however if it's all you indulge in, it can be really bad.
At it's worst, the whole of "prepper" culture is nothing more than a race in which he who has the most crap endorsed by W blogger, X youtube channel, or Y survivalist author wins. When it really matters it's not a matter of who has the most crap it's a matter of who can see and hear better, who is better rested, and who has the better assessment of his adversary.
What much of survivalism comes down to for me at least is keeping your priorities straight in the face of adversity, and developing tools for what will help you do that. The two most important things to me are my family and my freedom, everything else is simply a means to help me maintain those two things.
One problem that I find happens a lot in "prepper" circles is it tends to be an echo chamber, in that there's always this fever pitch to get an off-grid ranch, that's just a front end for the warren of reinforced concrete bunkers underneath, stocked with several centuries of food. All the while being dismissive of everyone who can't or won't do this as "sheeple".
While as someone who was once a teenage boy, I think a huge fort in the woods would be friggin awesome, I mean I remember building forts when I was a kid, and it was really cool, but as you have made the point, how practical is it, and does it serve the original mission of preserving the most important things?
What I really suggest is take the time and do some reading, and stop listening to the pundits put on the air by advertisers, and give yourself some perspective. While I like listening to Alex Jones, Peter Schiff, and Clyde Lewis, none of them have my individual best interest at heart, they have to sell ads to stay on the air and put food in their food holes.
Here's my reading list:
Sun Tzu - Art of War
von Clausewitz - On War
Adam Smith - Wealth of Nations
Henry George - Progress and Poverty
Sinclair Lewis - It can't happen here
Cicero - De Re Publica (aka Cicero's Republic) at least read Scipio's Dialog
Ludwig von Mises - Socialism (essay)
There are others I would recommend, but they need more context