Evacuation Orders

[snarlingdog]

Where are you getting the evac news for Oregon City...I haven't seen any confirmation

3 coworker that live in OC on southend rd got calls to evacuate as well as my dad off Maple Ln. So they aren't unfounded....

 

[4Freedom]

FYI I was a firefighter in what we referred to as the Wildland Fire Capital of the Planet (we had constant fires, often several at a time), in Shasta County, CA. We got pretty familiar with fire behavior.

Based on what I'm seeing in this satellite shot which shows topography,

Oregon City · Oregon 97045

Oregon 97045

www.google.com

I personally wouldn't be too worried if I lived in Oregon City proper or anywhere other than SE of town. Even on the SE side of town, because there are so many escape routes, I likely wouldn't leave until I saw the glow of the fire within a mile or two of home. Usually a local radio station will have someone trying to track the fire and report live for updates.

Only a high-wind driven event would cause me concern in an urban area like that. Keep in mind that embers can fall onto dry grass and the like and light up random fires in town so that CAN be a concern, but with projected 6 MPH winds it wouldn't be a huge concern for me.

Keep in mind that fires can make their own weather, such as fire tornadoes and the like, so that too is a factor. But there are just too many roads and highways to make a stand for a decent sized team of fire crews with proper apparatus, thus stopping the advance of the head of the fire itself before it reaches town. I'd think the crews would target Highway 211 to take a stand (Cedardale, Colton, Springwater). If it jumps 211 they'll hold what they can and advance to catch up with what crosses over.

Believe it or not any competent citizen may be able to prevent a major catastrophe in an event like this. Burning embers can fly out ahead of the fire (downwind) as far as a mile or more before dropping to the ground. Those can start what we refer to as 'spot fires' and you can damn near pee on them to put them out if you catch them ASAP. Spot fires are what cause major fires to 'leap frog' way out ahead of the teams fighting them. I used to carry a five gallon back pack of water, shovel, and rake that I'd use for 'spot patrol' during major events. It wasn't uncommon for me to have a fire completely out before the first engine even arrived.

A big weed sprayer filled with water can go a long ways. You'd be shocked at how much fire you can put out with five gallons of water. That's how everyone on these boards can help, by picking up some kind of water pack or even fire extinguishers and patrolling out ahead of the fire, staying out of the way of fire crews. Even a shovel can do it.

The key is to keep an eye on the smoke column in the air and then get UNDER it. If it's going straight up (no wind) then no worries, but if it's laying over and heading a certain direction, get under it ahead of the fire and keep your eyes open for smoke on the ground. If fire crews kick you out then move downwind and continue.

Don't get yourself trapped, always have an exit plan should the SHTF near you.

What's your assessment on why such large portions of towns (although not big, yet not tiny) such as Phoenix, Talent, etc literally burned to the ground? One thing to keep in mind is the large amount of timber, dry high grass and other sources of fuel with this very dry, warm and windy Summer Oregon has had. Of course, Southern Oregon is even drier than Northern Oregon, but the larger amount of vegetation and thicker timber I feel has resulted in even more devastating fires. Places like Oregon City literally are part forest/part suburb with how they are laid out. At least from what I remember living in that part of the metro years ago. I use to live in Boring , OR area which is kind of near that area, although a little more rural back then.

I appreciate all the info you shared and that you were a firefighter and respect firefighters more than almost any person on this Earth along with veterans for their service and risks they take to protect our communities and country.

Also, how many people are going to just stick around and try to assist in fighting a devastating wildfire this size? I feel many people will crap their pants (especially many suburbanites) the moment they hear a Level II, much less Level III evacuation notice.

I had to evacuate wildfire on Pompadour Bluff on the Cascade side of Ashland, OR when I was a kid and it was one of most scary moments of my life. We were woken up by the Fire Marshall at night and the area was choking full of smoke. They managed to contain it before it crossed the road or it would have been the end of our home. We didn't want to stick around though and help out, but just get the hell out of there.

 

[4Freedom]

Honestly I wish people like my dad that are retired and have an RV would leave well before level 2. He is just now getting the RV and it makes me mad. I didn't have much warning in molalla and when I did I was at wo

3 coworker that live in OC on southend rd got calls to evacuate as well as my dad off Maple Ln. So they aren't unfounded....

Telling my father the same thing... If you hit Level 1, might be best to take a little vacation before the Pandemonium starts. Nothing like a Nuclear assault type of escape from the city where you are trapped on a freeway for hours trying to flee. A massive wildfire going through the city the size of Portland will make history and be catastrophic.

BTW, what the hell is happening in Eugene, OR area? Looks like Level III Red zone is approaching right into Springfield, OR. Are they going to be evacuating Eugene?

What the hell is going on? Portland,Salem, Eugene all are facing wildfire risks? This is very very bizarre.

 

[CountryGent]

A fellow I've done business with for fourteen years, and who I consider a friend, was out hunting with his father the day before the big wild fire hit in this area. If the two gents were off a day, they wouldn't likely be still with us. Scary stuff.

 

[LDmax]

Telling my father the same thing... If you hit Level 1, might be best to take a little vacation before the Pandemonium starts. Nothing like a Nuclear assault type of escape from the city where you are trapped on a freeway for hours trying to flee. A massive wildfire going through the city the size of Portland will make history and be catastrophic.

BTW, what the hell is happening in Eugene, OR area? Looks like Level III Red zone is approaching right into Springfield, OR. Are they going to be evacuating Eugene?

What the hell is going on? Portland,Salem, Eugene all are facing wildfire risks? This is very very bizarre.

Might be a matter of the amount of people that would be evacuating here in Eugene and how much buffer time that would need compared with the PDX metro area

 

[ob1]

As a former firefighter, you understand the dynamics of egress. As we speak, people who are to the South of Oregon City are attempting to leave under level 3 orders. They are in the highest threat level areas and need to leave immediately. Once they have gone we may very well see a level 3 order for the Oregon City area, conditions required.
We are already seeing people leaving Oregon City (which is a big friggin town) that will create level 2 jams. The people behind will be slowed. Remember what happened last year at the Camp fire ?

https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article229547469.html

 

[ob1]

3 coworker that live in OC on southend rd got calls to evacuate as well as my dad off Maple Ln. So they aren't unfounded....

So 3 people get a call from somebody somewhere and Oregon City is under evac orders ? Ok...I guess that makes it founded. Maybe you should let the people who issue the orders know.

 

[snarlingdog]

So 3 people get a call from somebody somewhere and Oregon City is under evac orders ? Ok...I guess that makes it founded. Maybe you should let the people who issue the orders know.

I'll get right on it.

 

[Cavedweller]

I personally wouldn't be too worried if I lived in Oregon City proper or anywhere other than SE of town. Even on the SE side of town, because there are so many escape routes, I likely wouldn't leave until I saw the glow of the fire within a mile or two of home.

Been listening to Clackamas County Law Enforcement frequency. Cops say OC is in total gridlock.

 

[The Heretic]

Close, but no cigar - yet.

ArcGIS Web Application

tvfr.maps.arcgis.com

Maybe I can go home tomorrow?

Listening via scanner app, they had more water drops, and TVFR seems to have consolidated into one "division", down from three, and sent some units offline.

 

[Free_Patriot]

Regarding calls, FYI we'd implemented a phone warning system that was dispatched by our call center. Someone in the office would give an evac or warning call of some kind (active shooter calls etc.) and in doing so would have to punch-in parameters for the calls to go out. The system wasn't perfect and the dispatcher may have erred on the side of too broad an area vs. not far enough out. That's how folks on the SE side of town get calls before the need may actually exist. The system isn't perfect.

In general terms, manpower permitting, someone will be coming down your street or knocking on your door when Level 3 is upon you. That can indeed be unnerving but if you've been tracking fire progress you may have a head's up as to real vs. perceived danger.

Blocked roadways during egress are indeed a problem, and keep in mind that fire crews have to get INTO the neighborhoods to do structure protection. Blocked roads may prevent ingress by the fire teams. If you have no real reason to stick around and it seems likely the fire may make it into your area, then evacuate early. Refer to the other threads for what to gather and how to prepare. Keep a large parking lot or similar in mind as an alternate safe space should roads be blocked.

Regarding why the smaller towns like Talent were leveled, I'd have to review conditions, however you've mentioned heavy fuels and timber and that's a huge factor. What was the wind doing?

WIND is the thing that sends us into hyper-drive as firefighters. WIND is the danger. You have a fire burning upwind of you 50 miles away in low winds? No problem. In 50 MPH winds blowing your way? You can be buried in flames in ONE HOUR. Winds create infernos which can be impossible to stop. IMPOSSIBLE. However radiant heat, with our without wind, can also spread fires quickly.

Fires need three things to exist. Fuel, heat, and oxygen. Dry grass and trees are fuel, oxygen is everywhere, and heat can be a spark from a flat tire rim, chain dragging, downed power line, etc. However there is something called RADIANT HEAT.

If you're standing next to a campfire you'll feel radiant heat. Ever burned a marshmallow without ever touching any flames? That's radiant heat. If there's a stand of tall pines and brush across the street from your home or business, the flames can put off so much radiant heat that it will literally light your curtains inside your home, behind glass, on fire, before your home is even ablaze. The home can burn from the inside out. Vinyl exterior siding will melt. That's why you need a 30 foot buffer outside your home. Those trees are gorgeous but can be the source of you losing your home. Fire can run across low dry grass, up the trees, and that radiant heat will set your curtains on fire inside your home, or your deck, or your siding, or any other number of combustibles.

With high wind it's ten times worse. With no wind the heat goes mostly straight up, other than the radiant heat perimeter described above. But the wind tilts that rising heat sideways and blows it into everything in its path. Brick and block buildings burn this way. They can't escape the blow torch reigning down upon them.

I'll address the panic feelings below.

 

[bolus]

Heard from family that looters are hitting houses that have been evac'd. Be safe out there

 

[Free_Patriot]

Been listening to Clackamas County Law Enforcement frequency. Cops say OC is in total gridlock.

The reason people 'panic' and flood the streets is because of all of the media events showing towns like Paradise, CA burning to the ground. The Paradise event in 2018 was labeled the Camp Fire. It was a wind driven event. Here's an excerpt from a Weather.com article:

Gusts in the highest terrain of the nearby Sierra Nevada climbed to 60 to 65 mph as winds shifted overhead. Meanwhile, winds in the Central Valley remained light.

In between, a station in Jarbo Gap, near the site where the Camp Fire ignited, recorded gusts between 40 and 50 mph for at least 9 hours from Thursday evening into Friday morning. Sustained winds ranged from 20 to 30 mph out of the northeast.

Relative humidity remained less than 20 percent during the period of highest gusts and fell as low as 11 percent Thursday evening.

Both of these conditions enhanced critical fire weather conditions overnight.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2018-11-09-camp-fire-exploded-size-explainer

If you look at virtually ALL of the major fire events you'll see a common denominator; high winds. The only caveat would be heavy fuels such as thick brush and timber, with a fire running uphill.

Most people think it was just the FIRE that was the culprit and that's why they panic and flee rather than fall victim to an impending blowtorch. But the enemy is the wind.

As shown in the article linked above, the winds on the valley floor were calm while upper winds reached 65 MPH. As a valley floor heats under sunlight it creates warm updrafts that run up the canyons and hillsides. At night when things cool, it's the opposite, winds flow down the valleys. That COULD BE a concern for tonight along the I-5 corridor. That could fan flames down onto the valley floor. But the weather reports all call for 5-6 MPH winds. Not something we fear as firefighters.

Our first priority is to protect you, and then your home. Everything else is secondary, including your barn. Stopping or containing the fire's forward progress is next, when possible and when the manpower exists. Stopping a fire in a thick forest at night with few roads is tough. Populated areas are easier because roads themselves are natural fire lines. A lack of thick groves of trees helps.

It's natural to feel an overwhelming sense of panic when those evac orders approach. Everyone thinks they're going to lose everything, including pets, livestock, homes, vehicles, and possibly their lives. Who wouldn't get a sense of fear when considering such an event? That's why I stress perspective.

The winds AREN'T blowing 50 MPH. They're relatively calm. There are plenty of roads out of the urban areas. There are massive shopping mall or Walmart-type parking lots to take refuge in. You may even have time to make several runs to your parking lot refuge while saving other vehicles or belongings, picking up extra clothing, or more. Throw a bicycle into the back of your rig and then ride it back home so you can drive another vehicle out. A nearby parking lot may be a much better place to take refuge rather than leaving town altogether. Be prepared to sleep in place.

Regarding 'why all the fires', I think we'll find that several are arson related. One person can literally light an entire state on fire in the right conditions. ONE PERSON. We used to talk about it after our training sessions.

Don't fear the fire, fear the wind. The wind has the power.

One more thing. In Texas, looters can be shot. Texas does a few things RIGHT. Hopefully no one dies because they stayed back out of fear of being looted. Your life is more valuable. Consider that a cost of freedom. Possessions can be replaced.

Lives can't.

 

[alim]

Looks like they caught some of the looters: Two men accused of looting inside Oregon wildfire evacuation area

 

[Capin JRo]

I got the evacuation order and pooped my pants.






not really

Is this supposed to be funny when there are thousands of oregonians under level three evacuation and thousands more under level two. Manny of them have nowhere to go and had to leave years and years of history at there home not knowing what they will be going back to.

 

[Free_Patriot]

Is this supposed to be funny when there are thousands of oregonians under level three evacuation and thousands more under level two. Manny of them have nowhere to go and had to leave years and years of history at there home not knowing what they will be going back to.

My sense was that he was expressing his literal reaction to receiving the order, that it put the Fear of God into him! That's a pretty common response. @Certaindeaf can correct me if I'm mistaken.

 

[Capin JRo]

My sense was that he was expressing his literal reaction to receiving the order, that it put the Fear of God into him! That's a pretty common response. @Certaindeaf can correct me if I'm mistaken.

SE Portland doesn't have any orders or fires.
If I took it the wrong way than my apologies, just came off different to me than you.

 

[Certaindeaf]

Is this supposed to be funny when there are thousands of oregonians under level three evacuation and thousands more under level two. Manny of them have nowhere to go and had to leave years and years of history at there home not knowing what they will be going back to.

In the same boat, bub. Calm down.

 

[Capin JRo]

In the same boat, bub. Calm down.

Like I said above.
SE Portland doesn't have any orders or fires.
If I took it the wrong way than my apologies, just came off different to me than you.

 

[LDmax]

When the man says you gotta go, you gotta go