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Yesterday they did an official release of info which included the Incident Commander who was put on the job at 6:30 AM yesterday morning so he was still coming up to speed. He's a California fire veteran who's seen it all and is now serving in Oregon. He's the tall guy with the thick mustache who appears a number of times in the briefing. Here's the interview:Anybody want to take a guess on average time periods between Level 1, 2 and 3?
Clackamas County Wildfire Press Conference - Sept. 10, 2020 | Clackamas County
Clackamas County held a press conference on Sept. 10 concerning the wildfires occurring in our county.
www.clackamas.us
He says the time frame between levels 1, 2, and 3 would normally be one day each, but adds that life in Oregon has been so unpredictable in the past three days that anything can happen.
They had to pull fire crews back off the fire as the two largest fires converge. They don't want anyone getting trapped between fires. With that in mind, if you look at the evac map below you can assume that everything between the two largest fires will burn. No one there to protect anything, too dangerous.
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ccgis-mapservice.maps.arcgis.com
As far as predicting the fire behavior, he states that normally you have a wind driven fire that is heading a certain direction while spotting out ahead, but with this fire the column is going straight up in the air to about 10,000 feet, plowing it's way through the inversion layer. The concern with that is if the column falls over and begins dropping embers far out ahead of the fire. A marine layer is moving in which could steer the fire east so they're watching it closely.
He added that in Oregon right now 'perfect fire conditions' exist so behavior is unpredictable. He says if nothing changes the fire may simply continue to advance in a 360* direction (every direction). Those normally spread slower than wind driven fires. He reiterated that fires like this can create their own winds so predicting them is a virtual crap shoot at best (my words, not his). Right now the smoke layer is preventing them from getting eyes on the fire from overhead so they're hoping that clears.