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Anybody want to take a guess on average time periods between Level 1, 2 and 3?
Yesterday they did an official release of info which included the Incident Commander who was put on the job at 6:30 AM yesterday morning so he was still coming up to speed. He's a California fire veteran who's seen it all and is now serving in Oregon. He's the tall guy with the thick mustache who appears a number of times in the briefing. Here's the interview:


He says the time frame between levels 1, 2, and 3 would normally be one day each, but adds that life in Oregon has been so unpredictable in the past three days that anything can happen.

They had to pull fire crews back off the fire as the two largest fires converge. They don't want anyone getting trapped between fires. With that in mind, if you look at the evac map below you can assume that everything between the two largest fires will burn. No one there to protect anything, too dangerous.


As far as predicting the fire behavior, he states that normally you have a wind driven fire that is heading a certain direction while spotting out ahead, but with this fire the column is going straight up in the air to about 10,000 feet, plowing it's way through the inversion layer. The concern with that is if the column falls over and begins dropping embers far out ahead of the fire. A marine layer is moving in which could steer the fire east so they're watching it closely.

He added that in Oregon right now 'perfect fire conditions' exist so behavior is unpredictable. He says if nothing changes the fire may simply continue to advance in a 360* direction (every direction). Those normally spread slower than wind driven fires. He reiterated that fires like this can create their own winds so predicting them is a virtual crap shoot at best (my words, not his). Right now the smoke layer is preventing them from getting eyes on the fire from overhead so they're hoping that clears.
 
If the main stream news got organized they would save some lifes . pinning down the location of a fire is confusing when they use multiple references to location .real time updates on wind and direction of travel for fire matters big time.rather than interviewing victims and evacuation notices after they are ordered.
In our first-ever evac situation for our family, we all tuned in to a local radio station that had a small team of reporters out chasing the fire and reporting real-time on scene. That made it real and kept us informed. We could look at a map and watch the fire move our direction. It finally split in two and one finger moved beyond us to the west. We stood on a neighbor's roof and watched the fire move five miles southward until it hit the Sacramento River and stopped at around 2 AM. Five miles burning at one time. Propane tanks exploding. We were in a very rural area.

It was two years later, after buying my own fire truck to protect our own home and other private road residents next to us, that I joined our county fire department.
 
It was the WCSO that came to tell us (myself and neighbors) to evac - I already had heard from neighbor who was down tracking the fire.

I am going to try to return this AM, at least to check on things and cleanup around the house - I was outside picking up tree trash after the wind had died down, when I noticed the helo and heard the sirens.
 
From sigforum just now -


posted September 11, 2020 08:35 AMHide Post
My parent's place in Oregon City was upped to level 2 yesterday afternoon and they evacuated last night to my sister's place in Portland. I saw later on the local news that traffic was at a crawl, people trying to get out of that area.

I heard on the radio this morning that the Douglas County (Roseburg) sheriff has arrested 6 Antifa members for intentionally setting fires.
a couple people in salem were trying to light fires according to salem police department yesterday.detectives are currently working the case.
 

This guy does a good job of compiling what evidence there is so far. Some anecdotal stuff being an Oregonian but overall a good collection if you don't have Facebook or the like
 

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