What if the sh** doesn't hit the fan ?

[AMProducts]

Lets go point by point:

Lets sleep on it,

The United States economy took a major hit on September 12, 2001. Many stocks crashed and consumers lost faith in various industries. Since September of 2001, a variety of industries in the United States have been hit very hard. One of the first industries to begin laying-off workers was the airline industry, which began in late 2001, early 2002.

The stock market actually ate the big one in april of 2000, because people realized they had been dumping their life savings into internet companies that had no product, or if they did have a product they had no hope of actually capitalizing on it. At the same time, enron made people realize that even if a company did have a product they were never guaranteed a return because of malfeasance on the part of the people who ran the company. These are lessons that should have been obvious to anyone, however the news media at the time was awash with stories of people making big money. The problem is, in order to make money in any market you must do one fundamental thing: buy low, sell high. Whether this happens on a micro or macro scale the fundamentals have to be there. Every time something goes from high to low, people loose money, this is what all the people who bought gold are learning. Unless you buy something that has indispensable value (usually derived from utility) the value of anything can drop suddenly if no one wants to buy it. However, another market fundamental no one seems to appreciate is that there is always a need for labor.

1. The airline industry was, of course, directly affected by the events of September 11, 2001. A majority of Americans did not want to fly anymore and they lost confidence in the airline industry itself and its ability to protect Americans from terrorist attacks. Most airlines had major layoffs beginning in late 2001 and early 2002. There was also a pilot strike in the 2000s, which left the industry almost broken. However, even though the airline industry is still not what it was before September 11, it is moving forward towards some type of recovery.

The airline industry has several problems, first it is one of the most regulated industries in the modern world (next would be energy), they are also highly vulnerable to speculation on the commodity (namely oil) markets, as well as labor disputes. Only a fool would invest in this market, and since airlines have to compete in the same market as all other modes of transport time will tell how worthwhile it is. I personally don't like flying, in order to do so I have to pack smaller than I would normally, I have to be very attentive to what and how I pack because some jerk is going to dig through my bag and take out my shaving cream because it could be a bomb, and take my nail clippers away as I might kill someone with them. Even though flying is still relatively cheap and is usually cheaper than driving (if it's just me going) it's a mode I don't take unless I have something time critical that keeps me from driving.

2. The financial industry started to go downhill after the Enron Corporation was exposed for fraud and deceiving its' stockholders. Again, consumers lost faith in their investments and companies that were doing the investing. Since Enron, other major financial companies have faced similar charges of deception and fraud.

See point above. Market choices made on incorrect information are usually substantially worse than those made on incomplete information.

3. Because many people have either lost their jobs or cannot find jobs to begin with, the housing market has taken a hit. The housing market is very complex in the sense that not only are people unable to buy homes because they have less money, but also the banks made bad investments in people by giving out loans to people who could not afford to pay their mortgages once the economy took a turn for the worse. Now, to recover some of the money they lost, banks are no longer lending as much and therefore are limiting the amount of money they loan to consumers for homes.

After the 2000 and 2001 hits, people were looking for a "secure investment" for most people that took the form of tangible property, namely real estate. Huge amounts of money that fled from the stock market were poured into property and housing development, which very rapidly drove up prices, those who got in early looking for a safe haven were compromised by artificial lending practices mandated by government that drove property values beyond the range in which responsible home buyers could afford, even those that could afford were left with a choice, losing what investment they made (down payment, and house payments up to that point) to dump an asset they had overpaid for, and likely would not have paid off for 30 or more years. The artificial stimulation in the market (government intervention) is what set up the eventual end state for the housing collapse in 2008. This makes a huge case for government non-intervention.

4. More recently, the automobile industry has struggled partially because of major product recalls and partially because they had to accept tax payer money in the form of a "bailout." Of course, consumer confidence in the automobile industry has decreased dramatically because of the recalls and because consumers watched as more and more companies came forward for bailout money.

The auto industry is probably #3 of the top 5 most regulated industries here in the US after airlines and energy, with healthcare and insurance rounding out the top 5. The auto industry is greatly affected by fuel prices (greatly affects consumer preference), as well as labor and supply issues. I really think government bailouts did nothing but continue to distort the market, by going bankrupt the automotive companies would have been able to unload themselves from much of the pay raises, pension and healthcare benefits they had foolishly signed up for in better times via union agreements. A bankruptcy restructuring would have given the automotive companies opportunities to improve their operations significantly, streamline supply chain. However the bailouts of automotive companies was doing nothing but ensuring the union bosses would still be employed. Again, this is a negative case for regulation and government intervention. All it has done is sew the seeds for future failure.

5. Currently, lawyers have either lost their jobs and many recent graduates are also unable to find positions. Because thousands of college graduates are unable to find jobs, they are staying in school to earn a graduate degree. Now, there is a surplus of lawyers and not enough jobs to go around. This will be a problem for decades as the number of people who are attending law school is increasing, while the amount of jobs available are either staying the same or decreasing.

As it turns out, the world doesn't need that many lawyers, nor do we need philosophy, communications, psychology, art, or literature majors. What we need are civil/mechanical/electrical/chemical engineers, doctors, nurses, mathematicians, and scientists. The big lie sold to people is that they need a college education to succeed, and most employers believe this also because of the failure of public primary school education. It is also illegal in many cases to use aptitude testing as a basis for hiring decisions, this gives an edge to college graduates, however college graduates are usually saddled with tens of thousands in debt, which requires them to find a high paying job to have any hope of repaying student loans (the only kind of debt which cannot be discharged through bankruptcy). In this case, because of the failure of public education, and the high "government guaranteed" loan subsidy rate for higher education the growth in fees charged by every college or university has outpaced inflation by a geometric rate. Again, this is a case where government has perverted the market.

If the above information can tell us anything, it is that when consumers lose faith in an industry, the company should brace for hard times. Consumers are what drive all industries and when consumers and investors lose confidence in any given company, there will be severe consequences. In order to start solving the problems of many of these industries, companies must attempt to gain consumer trust and confidence in order to move forward.
But good luck with that as we are losing faith in our leaders, our jobs and our retirement !

This is all happening why Americans sleep on it, they hope, pray they will wake up and the world is now 1984 and all is well.
People are wanting changes in the way America is run ( nothing new ) but we are in a bad slump and recovery won't come easy or clean.
As people attack our rights and leave us at the soup line we have allot of dispare.
But we need hope to give confidence back to this country, with hope comes trust and hopefully a recovery.

When people wake up in the morning, they should stand in line and instead of being grateful that the government has rolled out the red carpet at the soup line they should be angry that the government is the embodiment of failure in the modern age. They should be angry at the unions who protected ineffective, ineffectual teachers who showed up to get their guaranteed paychecks, pay raises and gratuitous pension benefits with no expectation of actually having any ability or will to do their jobs. They should be angry with the politicians who campaigned on promises of more accountability, less corruption, and better government who delivered none if it.

And perhaps after that, they should be angry at themselves for not doing anything about it sooner. Ensuring that local, state and federal politics is nothing but a revolving door for the same group of ignorant, self absorbed, corrupt scumbags they didn't like in high school. Then maybe they should channel that anger into something constructive, whether it be finding, funding and running candidates who will bring about real change, real reform and smaller government, or running themselves. Something has to be done, and it can't be done by just complaining about it on the internet.

 

[tc556guy]

What exactly are you prepping for?

Dangers and risks come in many forms.

 

[PolishedBrass]

To me prepping is insurance and wisdom with foresight for contingencies and risks.

I put my seat belt on in the car because It is the law and is a safety habit.
When I do ... I am "prepping" to keep safe in an emergency situation while driving.

The rest of the prepping I do is all based on hard facts ... not opinion, emotion, or trend.

What exactly are you prepping for?

Dangers and risks come in many forms.

 

[MikeE]

Here ya go:

Oil And Credit | Finance

 

[tc556guy]

To me prepping is insurance and wisdom with foresight for contingencies and risks.

I put my seat belt on in the car because It is the law and is a safety habit.
When I do ... I am "prepping" to keep safe in an emergency situation while driving.

The rest of the prepping I do is all based on hard facts ... not opinion, emotion, or trend.

That's good.
My point I was trying to make was that some people think that danger comes only in one form, and ignore other possibilities.
People can't focus on one perceived problem and exclude other possibilities

 

[Burt Gummer]

I didn't really answer the OP question. What if SHTF never happens? You rotate the food and eat it, nothing goes to waste. It costs less 1,2,3 years ago than it does now, no loss.

You enjoy the guns and ammo for the primary reason you got them in the first place - fun (personally I have guns/ammo for FUN, going to the range, etc; never buy at gun thinking about how I can use it to fight off the hoards). OK, maybe 1 or 2 lol.

I sincerely hope SHTF and the collapse of the economy at the hands of the Oligarchs does not happen before I am dead and gone. I don't have a hard on to live in a third world battlefield hellhole. To see half the people I know dead within weeks.
Anyone who wants any of that is crazy. I know it is coming with absolute certainty. I selfishly want the Twittering Twits to go through it; they've earned it with their delusion and apathy more than I have.

 

[knuckle Head]

I selfishly want the Twittering Twits to go through it; they've earned it with their delusion and apathy more than I have.

Natural Selection!!!!!!!!!!!! :woot::woot:

Someone asked me if twitter, I looked them and said, I am not sure what that means, but it does sound like somewhat of a personal question, don't ya think??????

Honestly, I would like to see the grid go down for six months world wide and then come back on in a peaceful way, that way all of the twits, liberal brain dead, brain washed embysols could kill each other off while the rest of us set back and relaxed. That way when I came back on we would have to deal idiots who cannot find their own arse with both hands.

But I know if it goes off like that it will not pop back on in a story book way, so it would be best if it never really happens.

But reality, it will, lets see Ole Butthead wants to give the African Nations $7B in financial aid for their infrastructure improvements [UPDATE] Obama commits $7 billion to Power Africa development plan - UPI.com While our own infrastructure is in need of $20B in just bridge repairs we cannot afford to make <broken link removed>

So we are borrowing $0.46 of every dollar we spend, our bridge infrastructure alone needs a minimum of $20B in repairs and replacement which cannot afford do. This number does not include, sewer systems, water treatment, super funds cleanups, leaking nuclear waste in Seattle, electrical grid system that needs over haul. But we our stupid idiotic moron of a president commits $7B to Africa in infrastructure improvement aid.

Yeah we will collapse, spend our way to a complete bust while the system degrades, and then bursts's.

 

[Burt Gummer]

If we all paid a 100% tax on our income and had nothing for ourselves it would take 22 years to pay off the fake Fed debt scam. That is even with all spending frozen. So, Normalcy Bias aside, we are done economically.

We have the worst balance sheet on the planet. Seven billion here or there is meaningless when the Fed is handing over trillions to their foreign banks, their criminal buddies like GS on Wall St, and printing 85 billion a month here out of thin air indefinitely to try and prop up Bernie (Lowenthal). We are entirely banker owned and operated.

I mean, come on. Is there any person out there deluded enough to believe things will be better in ten years than they are right now? That their children are not facing a horrific future of debt slavery and tyranny?

My guess is the USA as we know it won't even exist in 10-15 years and that is no joke. We are just one big false flag away from being one giant prison camp. At that point the UN and World Bank will come in to pick the spoils and leave the common man here a peasant.

Other than that, enjoy the buffet (and sparklers to celebrate our freedom!).

 

[AMProducts]

LOL. wow ......... but with all due respect the information I provided is accurate, you just reworded and added stuff to puff up the point.
I was trying to avoid writing a novel, but when I read what you wrote you just made commentary on what I already said. (Thanks ??)
I don't disagree with you, but dude wow guess at least I know someone read my posts.

I was trying to put a finer point on it. To quote Reagan:

All of these problems you cited are directly due to government intervention creating distortion in the market. If you havn't already heard of the Austrian School, Ludwig von Misses was one of their very influential thinkers, here is an article written in 2005 that essentially details why what happened three years later was bound to:

Why Intervention Persists - Ludwig von Mises - Mises Daily

The thing I keep trying to point out is there are ways out of our current mess that don't involve a complete and total breakdown of society as the holnists advocate, this country is like a car with a squeaky wheel bearing, yea right now it's not that big a deal, in fact it's a minor nuisance however our problems have only just begun, and that squeaky wheel will eventually turn into a breakdown in the middle of death valley if we don't do anything about it.

If we all paid a 100% tax on our income and had nothing for ourselves it would take 22 years to pay off the fake Fed debt scam. That is even with all spending frozen. So, Normalcy Bias aside, we are done economically.

We have the worst balance sheet on the planet. Seven billion here or there is meaningless when the Fed is handing over trillions to their foreign banks, their criminal buddies like GS on Wall St, and printing 85 billion a month here out of thin air indefinitely to try and prop up Bernie (Lowenthal). We are entirely banker owned and operated.

I mean, come on. Is there any person out there deluded enough to believe things will be better in ten years than they are right now? That their children are not facing a horrific future of debt slavery and tyranny?

My guess is the USA as we know it won't even exist in 10-15 years and that is no joke. We are just one big false flag away from being one giant prison camp. At that point the UN and World Bank will come in to pick the spoils and leave the common man here a peasant.

Other than that, enjoy the buffet (and sparklers to celebrate our freedom!).

Here the logical fallacy, your initial supposition is only supported if spending levels remain constant. This is as silly an idea as the democrats upping tax rates and then wondering why money doesn't come flowing into the treasury.

Here's how you fix the whole damn thing:

1) Lower corporate taxes, and institute a tax holiday for US corporations bringing foreign funds back to the US. More money here means it will be spent here.

2) Mandate E-Verify for all employers, and set up a guest program where foreign workers can come to the US (they can go to an employment agency in their home country and apply) This will match workers with work, arrange transportation to and from. Also, this will mean those workers are paid a reasonable wage and pay tax on the income they earn, just like the rest of us. Extend the E-verify system to include private contractors.

3) Streamline the tax code, write it in plain english and use mathematical formula that can be easily understood by someone with a 4th grade education. This will remove the billions spent every year by you, me, corporations and everyone else trying to figure out WTF the IRS is talking about, also since it's based on simple math, fire 90% of IRS agents their job can now be done by computers.

4) Reduce and eliminate farm subsidies

5) Ban public employee unions

6) Enforce the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (1996) and with hold funds from states who do not comply with the provisions of the act (California specifically)

7) Streamline Environmental laws, eliminate the ones that make no sense, or conflict with other laws, make it faster (meaning cheaper) to build a power plant, an oil refinery, a steel mill, a recycling center or any other major project that contributes to the infrastructure of this country.

Our country spends far too much time digging holes only to fill them back in with waste and inefficiency, by removing regulatory burdens we can have doctors who spend more of their time being doctors, inventors can spend more of their time inventing, engineers who can spend more time engineering, and politicians can spend more time crying because no one pays attention to them.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Too late - plus the one that trumps that entire list by 100x is elimination of the private Federal Reserve and putting the issuance of our currency back in control of the Treasury as the Constitution dictates.

You are still caught in the false left-right BS; both parties answer to our owner Oligarchs. "Your initial supposition is only supported if spending levels remain constant." - NO, if spending increases STOPPED we are still doomed. There is ZERO recovery hope.

If all 7 things on your list were immediately implemented it would be like removing chewing gum from your families' budget. Plus you didn't even mention our Empire's bloated military budget to fight the fake and contrived war on terror (and drugs).

 

[Stomper]

It also doesn't take into account that there are those in high places that HATE our country and everything it represents (and supposedly stands for), and are HELL BENT on it's destruction and the enslavement of your sons to work the "salt mines", and your daughters to the "harems" to be used (and disposed of) as property and live only to serve those elites.

That is the reason there are so many insane policies, laws, and lawlessness going on at an expotential rate. Like Burt, I hope I'm long passed away before it comes to that, but (at the risk of sounding like just another internet commando-bloviator) should it appear on my horizon, I'll not bow my knee and go out on my feet... In that scenerio I'll make as big an echo in eternity as I can, and maybe even have the honor of having SOMEONE remember my name (if even for a little while) when its over.

 

[Trailboss]

I suppose a spare tire works the same way as my preps. Do I get upset when I get to my destination and I realize that I didn't need to use the spare tire? No.

 

[The B]

bubblegum's not going to hit the fan, and guys like Burt will eventually get bored of collapse fantasizing and find some other obsession.

 

[Dunerunner]

I think the odds are decidedly that it will since all the facts support it; however ... what if it doesn't?
What if America has enough grit to fend off the coup that has already happened and in an awakening experience rises up and turns the tide?

What if we get a restored constitutional republic of the people again?

Would you keep on fighting for it to stay?
Would you push the evil from our schools for the next 30 years?

Who would make sure that this doesn't happen again?

Should civil responsibility be relearned to prevent this again?

I am asking because if the "frog water" doesn't boil over into a civil war ... but gets nice and easy again ... who will carry on?

Will we just go back to sleep again?

Carry on the fight! Stay the course! I don't believe in absolutes, so I never say never!

 

[Burt Gummer]

Collapse fantasizing? LOL You obviously don't read well. The last thing I WANT is to see a collapse but only the truly deluded are unable to see the train coming. Mathematical certainty, do your homework and stopped believing CNBC.

 

[Burt Gummer]

 

[The B]

Collapse fantasizing? LOL You obviously don't read well. The last thing I WANT is to see a collapse but only the truly deluded are unable to see the train coming. Mathematical certainty, do your homework and stopped believing CNBC.

I don't have cable.

My reading is great, and my reading comprehension even better.. which probably helps to see through your "last thing I want..." BS. Every time the opportunity arises (frequently off-topic, I'll add), you spill forth gratuitous multi-paragraph predictions of the horrors of social collapse, massaging each detail like you're stroking it off as you write. I guess you think you're being vague enough that nobody can see your perverse longing for death and your gleeful little vision of default social and ethnic cleansing... I can't even imagine the kind of bubblegum that's actually going through your mind as you caress your crates of food and ammo.

Gotta reign it in a little, man. This is a phase that'll pass... you want to have any friends left when you finally switch to golf?

 

[One-Eyed Ross]

Well, since we live in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, I'm guessing most of us in Western Washington/Oregon know that eventually, the S will HTF. Even without that, even a 7.0 or greater quake in some parts of the I-5 corridor can wreak havoc on the food supply for months.... Better to be prepared, even if the sky doesn't fall. There are lots of reasons to prep, not all of them envision the end of the world..

 

[PolishedBrass]

I like your posts and heart.

It is the very heart and character that helps me believe differently than the facts support.

Facts and data cannot show the heart of men ... they cannot show the remaining integrity, hope and valour left in this formerly great land.

Hence I sincerely hold out hope for some form of restorative change.

bubblegum's not going to hit the fan, and guys like Burt will eventually get bored of collapse fantasizing and find some other obsession.

 

[One-Eyed Ross]

"Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions than ruined by too confident a security."
Edmund Burke, "Reflections on the Revolution in France"