Survival: So Simple it's Profound

[etrain16]

Did you encounter any studies that even suggested the possibility of a 900 mile rupture? I did not, and such broad-scale cataclysmic thinking is not common in the geophysicists whom I knew. I had a professor who wrote papers on mega-shear events: imagine Montana lifting, moving and rotating as a whole.

Not specifically, just the culmination of reports/articles I read and some feedback from city disaster planning we researched. That is the worst of the worst kind of scenario, though history would indicate a rupture of that magnitude is highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility. I'm no geophysicist, and don't claim to be an expert, so I must rely on what I read/hear from others.

Some of the information that was given to us in our research for the company indicated that the damage in the Portland area may not be as bad as some other reports suggested, meaning many more structures may be left standing than some are lead to believe. Again, is this trustworthy? I really don't know. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

 

[P7M13]

I'm fortunate as our company will be one of those involved in rebuilding/restoration of infrastructure. We will have work from day 1 for those who are willing, and able, to work. Our biggest problem as a company will be communication, and we've spent some considerable time trying to iron that out. Our belief is that most folks will abandon any concern for work for a period of time, but will be looking to return once things begin to stabilize. The way we would most likely work is to have people work in the areas of town close to where they live, focusing first on the priorities like emergency services, hospitals, utilities, etc. It is likely we would be strictly in emergency work mode for a year or more. I am an office guy now, but I still have the tools and would likely be a field guy for months, if not longer.

If I read correctly, you have extensive experience in disaster recovery field work? What would be in YOUR GHB?

 

[mkwerx]

If it's as catastrophic as predicted - a 90,000 sqare mile swath of destruction - most of us are probably going to be dead, dying, or trapped. The ones to survive will be the ones likely not in any built up urban areas, not on or under overpasses, bridges, etc. Talk about a depopulation event.

For those who've indicated they won't be welcoming of refugees or whatever you would call them passing through or relocating away from the disaster zone - I've got to scratch my head. It's one thing to keep looters at bay - but to used force of arms to prevent your neighbors and fellow citizens from fleeing certain death seems a bit...evil. Not saying you have to put people up in your homes, hand 'em the cash in your wallet, and give them the shirt off your back - but IF such a terrible event happens, I'd imagine those that make the trek across the mountains, through the devastation zone, to the safe zone aren't going to be the mindless sheep, and likely they're going to be tired, angry, and won't respond well to threats of force. Most that make the trek will probably be armed, so take that into account. Unless you're into wholesale murder of others - shooting them before they get close - you're going to have to talk to them. And if you're hostile or threatening, they may just snap and start shooting people themselves. Probably wind up with blood baths on both sides.

Doesn't need to be a complete end of the world scenario - it's a local one. The US Government doesn't have the ability to deal with such a disaster, and there's not enough troops to secure that much territory effectively, nor provide speedy relief and evacuation efforts.

Our brothers in eastern Oregon and Washington, Idaho and Nevada are going to be the front lines of the relief and humanitarian effort. It may be an invasion by the coast dwellers - but in reality there won't be millions making that trek - if the roads and bridges are smashed and it becomes a walking effort - at least 90% who try that walk will die - elements, disease, injury, infighting, starvation, dehydration - they will all take a toll.

mjbskwim makes a good point - we may likely have no homes to make it to, but it's ingrained in our nature to try - at least for many of us. If nothing else I would want to see for my self if my family lived. The home may be smashed, but I'd have to see if the wife & boy survived, if they did, it'd be my responsibility to take care of them somehow, and lead them out of the danger area to safety. For us, that would mean trying to get out of the danger area to an evac zone, and try to make it to family in Texas or Colorado.

If my home was smashed and I found my wife & kid to be dead - not sure what I'd do. Maybe try to make it to check on other family in the area, maybe try to bury the dead then eat a bullet to join 'em. May try to organize or join with others in providing some sort of aide to others. Don't know. Chances are if I'm working - the kiddo is at school, and the wife may or may not be at work herself. At least those locations are both close to home - I hope the kid's school would survive, but it's an older building - so who knows. Wife's store was built within the last 10 years, so it may be structurally OK, or not.

I hope the predictions are wrong - and I hope never to see it in my life time or my kid's lifetime.

 

[Certaindeaf]

If a 900 mile long 9.0+ hits, it could easily crash the entire grid in the United States.. and if that happens it'll take around 100 years to rebuild and it's likely that it never would/could be "rebuilt". Billions of lives will be lost.. fairly quickly. It'll be a close approximation of an extinction class asteroid hitting the planet.

 

[etrain16]

If I read correctly, you have extensive experience in disaster recovery field work? What would be in YOUR GHB?

Quite the opposite. I'm on the newer side to this, but was pulled in with a number of others to start to develop a disaster/recovery plan for our company. Since no one person had extensive experience, it was up to each of us to start doing research, gathering info and bringing it to the group for discussion and presentation to the higher-ups. One on our team worked for UPS down south during Katrina, so she brought an interesting perspective.

I learned a lot in the process, including how little the company is going to provide for it's employees if the event happens during the work day. We had plans ranging from a connex full of supplies at all major job sites to simply telling the employees they had better plan for their own supplies - in the end, that's what won out, against my protests. We're going to be having some meetings with all employees in the coming months that will basically advise folks that they are responsible for themselves in such an event and need to plan accordingly, distributing information and some empty, plain GHB's in the hopes it will encourage them to start planning for themselves. I had hoped they might want to do a bit more, but that's where it currently stands.

As for my GHB, it's similar to what has already been listed here - food, shelter, clothing, etc. What I'm most concerned about is crossing water - I have to do it at least once, possibly twice depending on where I am at any point during the day. That one has me a bit stumped at the moment.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

"Where am I going to get a hundred feet of bridge , Just like that?"

"Its a beautiful mother bridge..."

Maybe watch Kelly's Heroes for ideas on river crossings ,etrain.

just kidding ... doing a river crossing without a bridge is a difficult field problem.
And one with many hazards...
Andy

 

[PaulB47]

Fire is a beacon of life when you want to go un noticed, and the smell of cooking is likely worse

Keep in mind your little camp fire is going to be one of many fires, burning cars and houses. Nobody will notice it until long after the major fires (which may smoke for weeks) have burned out.

I'm a bit less worried than most about being attacked. Initially, for at least a day or two, people will just be dazed. At some point gangs will form up but they will have others to prey on. Anyone with the least amount of care will avoid trouble while the dazed and confused take the brunt of the attacks. Drawing your weapon will deter any attacks also.

Of course another factor is that there are plenty of guns around, and gang members or other bad people are pretty likely to get shot, so until they have time to really organize, build in size and control an area there may not be much trouble.

I keep thinking I need a Marlin Papoose. It's a rifle that is accurate enough, but can be taken down in case you don't want to be seen with a rifle. It's very light and the ammo is light too.

I liked the look of that Montague Paratrooper but the only dealer in Portland that had that brand had another bike at twice the cost. Mail order?

 

[Quartermaster]

The revelation I had came while picturing in my mind the scene at a collapsed overpass... So, why not ask some of the more level-headed looking folks on the other side if they'd like to trade vehicles.

That. Was the Springfield Saint of letdowns. The rest of your argument was so fraught with fallacies, namely arguments from ignorance or incredulity (most notably your avatar), that there's no point in a debate. I'll make one point though: you want to take out a $50,000 home equity loan, somewhere in the national average of 6.64-9.74% APR, and put it into a savings account with a 1% APR return, and you think you'll MAKE money???

 

[Skier]

Plus my family is aware of how I would try to get home and knows what channels I would use on CB and FRS radio when I get within range if cell service is down.

Add to that a hand-held ham radio that's preprogrammed with a bunch of local repeaters, at least some of which are likely to be working or fixed quickly in a disaster, and your communication prospects are likely better than just FRS (relatively short range and line of site) or cell phones (even if working, likely clogged up and overloaded). You can pick up an inexpensive BaoFeng for $25-40 on Amazon, and I'd be happy to help people with picking some good repeaters to program, along with info on how to program the radios (if you want to program yourself the easy way at home, then it's about another $10-15 for the USB programming cable).

 

[Mountainman38]

I'm counting on the generosity of strangers to help me get home.

Best plan yet.

 

[Mountainman38]

this OPB website tells me that I will be without water/sewage for 1 year, Police for 6 months, Electricity for 4, highways and roads for year and half, no healthcare facilities for up to 2 years.

how it estimates that I don't know, I'm skeptical I would have police services after 6 months if we don't have any roads for a year...

click here and plug in your zip code.
Aftershock

I'm super lucky - since I don't live in Ore-gone, that site won't talk to me.

 

[Howard1955]

I'm super lucky - since I don't live in Ore-gone, that site won't talk to me.

Didn't work for me, either - and I live just west of Salem.

 

[Lazyfaire]

Pull off the roadway and immediately go and purchase any/every container with which to carry gasoline and water. Go to a filling station and purchase all that you can. It will never be less expensive than at that moment in time. (The station must still have power tho).

 

[Mike aka BandAid]

for those that choose to stay it out here is something of interest to gun owners. The Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act of 2006 prohibits the confiscation of legal (duh) firearms during a natural disaster.

click to learn more:
Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act of 2006 - Wikipedia

SHTF, like a Cascadia Level Event, the local Police are probably not going to bother coming in to work. And if they do, I'm friends with the entire Department, they are welcome to come over and bring their family. We'll keep em safe while they restore order! Of course, that's the benefit of working at home!

 

[IdahoBangBang]

In Alaska, overland treks were NOT suggested. Your best bet is to a) have alternative forms of communication that allow you to contact family or authorities or both, and b) have what you need to survive in your vehicle right where you are, and there you stay. Some people that I knew, that lived more in the outback than us (we were 35 miles north of Fairbanks - 35 miles of powerline through trees to the power source), also kept EPIRBs in the vehicles and houses. You need first aid gear (w/splints and Celox), heat, water and food, winter clothing good enough to hike out in if you really need to (in any possible weather), and blankets (etc) for sleeping in a cold rig. These instructions keep you alive while you wait for rescue or for the roads to clear so you can get where you're going. Getting out and hiking to a destination, if not pretty close, is a good way to not get found if something goes wrong on the way. You need a strap cutter/window breaker in the glove box. If you car ends up in water, your bug-out bag better be in your lap or you're leaving it behind ....this is when you might need that window breaker.

Your family at home should be prepared as well, including the same list of stuff and a way to protect the house as required, e.g. we practiced draining the house of water in the event of power and heat loss and no quick recovery expected, and had a wood stove for heat (and plenty of wood).

Brian

 

[Lazyfaire]

At the inception of such an event as described emergency services will begin to take care of places that involve the most people. Hospitals, malls, schools, etc. They will not be moving into neighborhoods where you live for many days. Your house on fire? They probably will not show up in time. There will be a great breakdown in society and law and order. They will come around eventually but it will be you and your neighbors who must rely on each other to protect your homes. Plan ahead, protect what is yours, teach your family how & what to do should the event occur. Plan ahead. Sharing everything you have just means you could die sooner. Most around you will not have planned ahead and will stare hungrily at what you have. (Think Lord of the Flies)

 

[Blindranger]

I'm bugging out ASAP. Get to my rifles. And Mash starts at 7.

I would bet the longer you wait the worse it will be.

So youre going to wal

I wonder about this, will most peoples instinct be to help out at first, or will it just instantly break down to looting and chaos? I would think at first most everyone will be desperately wanting to secure themselves and their loved ones. Then later when those that don't prep run out of supplies the chaos begins...

Civility will break down once you witness your children or spouse start do die from a lack of water (or food).

 

[Koda]

Civility will break down once you witness your children or spouse start do die from a lack of water (or food).

This is the moral delimma we face...

Lets say youve prepped, your house survived.... 3 or more weeks go by and others have run out of food, shelter heat, medicine. They are starving, some are dead....

And here you are with a workable home, healthy and obviously fine. The longer this goes on, the more you and your home stands out as the place to go for help...... But do you?


Keep in mind that other than not prepping, these are otherwise good people. His wife is dead or dying, his 3yr old is dead or dying, hes either coming to you to beg for help, or rob you. How much longer can your preps last till infrastructure is restored? What would you do?

Pretty bleak picture actually...

 

[Andy54Hawken]

Damn Koda ... Are you channeling Hemingway ?
Just kidding ... it is indeed a good question.
Andy

 

[Mountainman38]

The only way I'll ever make it home is to follow the rivers and find rapids to drown out my snoring while I sleep.

The best thing about this thread is the Paratrooper folding Mt. bike. May just order one for my birthday this month and put it in my rig. I can think of all sorts of uses for that nice bike, including a little exercise throughout the year.

Thanks to targeted ads, and the fact that I clicked on the link earlier, I nowe see that bike on every page in this discussion.