Metrics for gun violence statistics

[Koda]

How about printing up some posters:
90% of all violent crime is committed by people already banned from having guns, It is not gun violence. It is
REPEAT OFFENDER VIOLENCE

This is what I thought, but this seems to be challenged by the conversation above...

 

[RX-79G]

How about printing up some posters:
90% of all violent crime is committed by people already banned from having guns, It is not gun violence. It is
REPEAT OFFENDER VIOLENCE

Don't you think printing out a lie is going to have the opposite effect you're looking for among the people that don't already agree with you?

 

[dancinghippos]

Don't you think printing out a lie is going to have the opposite effect you're looking for among the people that don't already agree with you?

What part is a lie?

 

[RX-79G]

This right leaning article says 53% of murderers had a previous felony.

Second, Third, and Fourth Chances—at What Price?

Last November, a deranged 26-year-old man, Devin Patrick Kelley, opened fire on worshipers inside a church in Sutherland, Texas, killing 26. High-casualty mass shootings are tragic in human terms but anomalous statistically, at least in terms of the portion of total U.S. homicides that they...

www.city-journal.org

 

[RX-79G]

What part is a lie?

If 90% of violent crime is committed by those who are already felons, how did they all become felons in the first place?

 

[Koda]

This right leaning article says 53% of murderers had a previous felony.

Second, Third, and Fourth Chances—at What Price?

Last November, a deranged 26-year-old man, Devin Patrick Kelley, opened fire on worshipers inside a church in Sutherland, Texas, killing 26. High-casualty mass shootings are tragic in human terms but anomalous statistically, at least in terms of the portion of total U.S. homicides that they...

www.city-journal.org

it also cited a source from the DOJs Bureau of Justice Statistics, so is that 53% not true?

 

[dancinghippos]

This right leaning article says 53% of murderers had a previous felony.

Second, Third, and Fourth Chances—at What Price?

Last November, a deranged 26-year-old man, Devin Patrick Kelley, opened fire on worshipers inside a church in Sutherland, Texas, killing 26. High-casualty mass shootings are tragic in human terms but anomalous statistically, at least in terms of the portion of total U.S. homicides that they...

www.city-journal.org

That's murderers who were caught and convicted for a previous felony, then caught and convicted of murder. I was referring to all violent crime. You see stories about NYC where the same guy is on the street after a mugging, then arrested again. Even if you were not tried yet, a suspect out on "bail" or "no bail" is also forbidden from having a gun.

Even then, 53% is pretty awful. But you make a point. I read that number somewhere I can't find right now to verify. So it is prudent to hold off until I can find the source or a better number.

 

[RX-79G]

it also cited a source from the DOJs Bureau of Justice Statistics, so is that 53% not true?

It probably is true. But it means that nearly half of a considerable number of murders are by non-felons, since our 2022 murder rate is 4.96 while well-armed Austria is .96. So even when you take away all the murders by felons, you still end up with more than twice the rate of most of Europe. In other words, our non-felons are more than twice as murderous than all murderers of all kinds in Austria.

That is not a comforting statistic.

 

[Koda]

It probably is true. But it means that nearly half of a considerable number of murders are by non-felons, since our 2022 murder rate is 4.96 while well-armed Austria is .96. So even when you take away all the murders by felons, you still end up with more than twice the rate of most of Europe. In other words, our non-felons are more than twice as murderous than all murderers of all kinds in Austria.

That is not a comforting statistic.

Im always suspicious of comparing rates to other countries, it doesnt mean its perfectly normalized. Smaller country societies are easier to get along, and how do they compare to out large population centers where most of our murders take place? Does Austria have a right to arms, and carry, whats their access to guns. Lots of things come into play than per capita rates.
so if we changed our policy to keep previous felonies, convicted of violence, behind bars and our murder rate dropped 53% seems like it would be really hard to argue its access to guns as the fault.

 

[Knobgoblin]

Europeans commit suicide at a slightly higher rate than the US, with some exceptions (Belgium) ,killing themselves at almost twice the rate as Americans.

If you compare the murder rate to the suicide rate , Europeans are far more at risk of killing themselves.

So , that's pretty comforting.

 

[po18guy]

"Recidivism rates" is the stats we are looking for.

 

[dancinghippos]

"Recidivism rates" is the stats we are looking for.

Almost. What we want is the percentage of any type of violent crime done with a gun that was committed by someone who was out of jail but still forbidden from having one. Each violent crime done by someone already restricted from having a gun adds one to the score. The 53% repeat offender murder stat isn't all of it.

The purpose is to show that if repeat offenders are removed from the count, the so-called "gun violence" rate falls significantly.

 

[RX-79G]

Im always suspicious of comparing rates to other countries, it doesnt mean its perfectly normalized. Smaller country societies are easier to get along, and how do they compare to out large population centers where most of our murders take place? Does Austria have a right to arms, and carry, whats their access to guns. Lots of things come into play than per capita rates.
so if we changed our policy to keep previous felonies, convicted of violence, behind bars and our murder rate dropped 53% seems like it would be really hard to argue its access to guns as the fault.

Austrian's can buy stuff we can't. But our murder rate is higher than Pakistan.

 

[Xaevian]

 

[Koda]

The purpose is to show that if repeat offenders are removed from the count, the so-called "gun violence" rate falls significantly.

This is exactly the point of my post, i wish more gun right supporters with national influence would argue this more.

 

[VanceInWA]

What would happen if the gun rights community called out 3 things from the "gun violence" statistics. 1) the number of violent crimes committed with guns by criminals already prohibited 2) the number of "gun violence" crimes committed by offenders previously convicted of violent crimes who were released from custody 3) suicide with a gun is not "gun violence".
?

edit, to clarify Im asking what would happen to the numbers in the statistics collected by the anti gunners, what would the actual true count be of violent crimes where a gun was used if we removed 1) prohibited people 2) violent criminals released 3) suicides.

The big one is suicides. Of all deaths resulting from gun discharge, which usually numbers just shy of 40,000 per year in the United States, a full 60%+ are suicides. So if nobody had a gun to commit suicide that obviously doesn't mean suicides wouldn't happen, it just means they would find another way to off themselves. Taking suicides out of the mix leaves most of the remainder as homicides, somewhere around 14,000 per year. The United States has a current population of around 335 million (not counting Biden's millions of illegal aliens). So a very conservative estimate is that we have a rate of homicidal deaths using guns of around 4 people per 100,000 population. That's it, even before the other factors you raised. And for that Biden wants to destroy our Second Amendment rights.

I don't think so.

 

[jackrv]

Every time I hear some one utter "Gun Violence" I say "you mean a Violent Criminal using a gun?" Let's help change the narrative..

I usually say gang violence

 

[RX-79G]

This is exactly the point of my post, i wish more gun right supporters with national influence would argue this more.

The problem here is that we incarcerate more people than anywhere else. If prior felons are the problem, than it isn't because we aren't keeping them in jail enough, but that we jailed them in the first place for non-violent crimes. Then they went to jail and graduated to violent crime - especially since they can't get decent jobs.

So the reasonable conclusion of the statistics you're looking at is that our system of justice creates violent criminals. So you can either address their "gun violence" by making guns impossible for everyone to get, or by sending fewer people to prison in the first place.

Which one is going to sit better?

 

[VanceInWA]

The problem here is that we incarcerate more people than anywhere else. If prior felons are the problem, than it isn't because we aren't keeping them in jail enough, but that we jailed them in the first place for non-violent crimes. Then they went to jail and graduated to violent crime - especially since they can't get decent jobs.

So the reasonable conclusion of the statistics you're looking at is that our system of justice creates violent criminals. So you can either address their "gun violence" by making guns impossible for everyone to get, or by sending fewer people to prison in the first place.

Which one is going to sit better?

Whoa there! The problem with our system is that we are throwing criminals in jail? Uh, nope. That ain't gonna fly past my radar. If someone does the crime, then they're going to do the time. Period. Your weak suggestion is being tried elsewhere (e.g., New York, Los Angeles) and the results are proving to be an unmitigated disaster in real time. It is a loser suggestion that we mollycoddle criminals and certainly not something I'd ever vote for.

 

[Rkangel]

A start would be actually prosecuting crimes with an equal application of justice.
Most gun crimes do not occur out of the blue. They are usually among a list of repeat and escalating offenses by habitual violators. Most gun crimes could have been prevented if proper application of justice had been applied at any point prior to the use of a firearm.

Mass shooters and gang bangers get out on bond within 48 hours yet people whose worst offense is trespassing are still in prison without trial.
A meth head was arrested 9 times in two days, and released within an hour each time, thanks to Brown's "call an 800 number - get out of jail free card - catch and release program". All the police were allowed to do is drive him around town, drop him off at the city limits and make him a county problem. He was later arrested for assault at a grocery store on the edge of town.
An EMT is accused, charged and put on trial for assault and child endangerment (later proven to be false accusations), yet a moron who has broken multiple public obscenity, gun storage (like them or not), brandishing, public endangerment, contributing to the delinquency of a minor, and child endangerment laws (including discharging a firearm into a child's occupied bedroom while under the influence), still remains free, still has firearms, and thus far has never been charged despite multiple visits from law enforcement.

Given the complete disproportionate application of the law, I think it is past being considered conspiracy theory to assume that prosecutors want these predators on the street and in our communities to stoke fear and create future conflicts. If that's the case, we can argue statistics all we want, but until the justice system is cleaned out of activist judges and progressive prosecutors, it is all for naught.