If it could happen to Israel…

[pnwclimber]

Given their high tech security on the border, the notoriety of their intelligence agency, Mossad, I am really taken aback from what's been happening in Gaza and Israel the past 24 hours.

How does one even prepare or respond to something like this when you have unknown number of terrorists holding civilians and military personnel hostage at multiple locations.

The next 48-72 hours is gonna be quite intense indeed

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[Oro]

Speaking from a purely tactical analysis, not political:

What Hamas pulled off is not that shocking. It's been done before. The talking heads on TV saying that line are doing it to jam up clicks or views and out of ignorance. An exactly parallel situation was precisely 50 years ago in the run-up to the October War - which is what Hamas is paying tribute to in this action. And let's bottom-line it: if you rely upon highly technical intelligence gathering means, wholly non-technical communication channels is a perfect counter. Hamas patterned it's pre-attack C&C precisely on the 1973 tactics Egypt and Syria used, I would bet.

In '73, Sadat and the senior staff knew they had zero chance to hide anything well-coordinated. They met with Syrian general staff, decided on the plan and to launch it on the back of general army manuevers, with zero additional training, or even generals at the divisional level having a clue what was coming. It is estimated that literally 24 hours before the start of the war, only about 8 Egyptians new they were going to war on Oct. 6. Amazingly, one of the 8 ACTUALLY was an Israeli spy and told the Israelis 10 or 12 hours before the Egyptians attacked.**

Hamas likely took heed of this and tightly controlled the news of the attack, informing cells and units of the plan the day of. What this will mean long-term is there is no real depth or plan to their actions - they will try to gather strength from their assault and their supporters celebrating it, then leverage what they can with hostages that they grabbed. They made no meaningful real "attack" or incursion other than firing off a lot of rockets, drone bombs, and snatching hostages quickly.

I believe in the long run they miscalculated very badly as the appalling nature of the attack is going to make the otherwise internal and external restraints that would normally apply to military actions by Israel fall away. There will be an ugly bill to be paid and they will not garner sympathy from it like they calculated.

Also, should add: Hamas had ramped up small-scale attacks quite a bit in the last two or so months. I follow two Israeli news sources on Twitter and everyone who was looking, saw at least that. And everyone who pays attention knows about the predilection for anniversary, dates, etc. Arab terrorists favor (9/11 was not an accidental date, it referenced a prior Ottoman defeat centuries ago). I'm guessing plenty of smart people in Israel and elsewhere were expecting something. It may just be the scale and brazen brutality that caught some offguard.

** - Coincidentally, I re-read "18 Days in October" last week, which is an excellent read on the '73 Yom Kippur War, that's why I was freshly up on the details of the war then. I recommend it if you are interested in the subject, or just military history in general. It's a great story, period.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61884887-eighteen-days-in-october#

It's available in a lot of libraries and digitally, too, no need to pay.

 

[ma96782]

Aloha, Mark

 

[ma96782]

I wonder.......
IF the education system in Israel is anything like here in the USA?
You know....where many of the teachers and students are so caught up in politically correct thinking. i.e. LGBTQ+, love those who hate you, how to take illegal drugs safely, #BLM, Protesting in the Streets of America, BORDERS are for racist, etc.....

Yeah.....
Meanwhile in Palestine, the kids were learning too.......











Yup.....the kids were being indoctrinated. Only the subjects weren't the same (like in the West).

Aloha, Mark

 

[echo1]

No it's nowhere similar to our sad state. The Israeli youth know firsthand about the potential for attack and are drilled and train for it. All citizens are required to serve in the military at 18, most all households have small arms, like the Swiss. Additionally their faith is strong. They are not sheep and Godless like many here. Although as a military force they are as ruthless and abusive as the French and Brits were, which is not surprising. They're waiting for their Messiah, which roughly coincides with the Second Coming. Sodom & Gomorrah ain't got chit on us. PAX

 

[TTSX]

 

[Yarome]

As a practical matter... one interview of a civilian woman caught my attention. Her parents live near the border and their home was broken into and taken hostage.

The comment that struck me though was her saying that her father did have a handgun, but what could he do against multiple terrorists at once(?)

All I heard in my head was... case in point... "Mo' firepower = Mo' better". The principle that you are your own first responder in action.

 

[echo1]

Although I said it was dissimilar it kinda isn't when you consider car jack, wilding store takeovers, illegal camps or homeless fentanyl induced criminal activity. Same thing sideways. We as a people are under attack. How will we legally defend ourselves? You know & I know how, but who has our backs? PAX

 

[P7M13]

What is the indoctrination of the battalions crossing our southern border?

 

[arakboss]

Given their high tech security on the border, the notoriety of their intelligence agency, Mossad, I am really taken aback from what's been happening in Gaza and Israel the past 24 hours.

How does one even prepare or respond to something like this when you have unknown number of terrorists holding civilians and military personnel hostage at multiple locations.

The next 48-72 hours is gonna be quite intense indeed

Some would say this was predicted and the end is nigh.

I predict this thread get's shut down nigh.

 

[Val1884]

The Arab plan is simple.. inshallah.. that's it.

 

[RVTECH]

Let us know now if it's going to be pulled so we don't waste time please.

Waste time doing what? Posting? Reading?

Just continue to do so if you wish until the time comes it is (if) closed.

No different than any other thread.

 

[Camelfilter]

No it's nowhere similar to our sad state. The Israeli youth know firsthand about the potential for attack and are drilled and train for it. All citizens are required to serve in the military at 18, most all households have small arms, like the Swiss. Additionally their faith is strong. They are not sheep and Godless like many here. Although as a military force they are as ruthless and abusive as the French and Brits were, which is not surprising. They're waiting for their Messiah, which roughly coincides with the Second Coming. Sodom & Gomorrah ain't got chit on us. PAX

Most Israeli households having small arms similar to the Swiss doesn't seem to be correct. By a long ways:

"...Recent figures published by the National Security Ministry indicate that barely 150,000 Israelis have a personal gun license, or some 2.6% percent of the entire adult population (15-64). ..."

From: https://www.algemeiner.com/2023/02/...el-how-strict-are-the-jewish-states-gun-laws/

Written FEBRUARY 27, 2023

However also noted in the article, those that are armed & do carry, have stopped multiple mass killings.

Edit, adding: firearms laws are also rather restrictive according to the article. "May issue", meaning folks need to have justification & also pass criteria. No rifles etc.

So seemingly it would be easy to assume Israelis are armed to the teeth, It's apparently quite the opposite. Unfortunately.

 

[Flopsweat]

 

[Longwalkhome]

Waste time doing what? Posting? Reading?

Just continue to do so if you wish until the time comes it is (if) closed.

No different than any other thread.

No thanks, but you guys have a great day anyway.

 

[arakboss]

View attachment 1736825

I wish them luck but they are like sage rats. They will keep popping up.

 

[Flopsweat]

I miss this guy.

 

[msgriff]

Various pro-Hamas rallies are planned for today across the US, so be aware of your surroundings if you live or plan on visiting the usual cities.

 

[arakboss]

I hope we give Israel more support like we have given to Ukraine.

 

[Flopsweat]

I hope we give Israel more support like we have given to Ukraine.

They will be making a ton of airstrikes against Hamas installations over the next few days.