Surviving the crash

[patrikky]

I never argue but base my opinion on a long lifetime of observation. I could go through step by step how the country is crashing but I have no need to convince anyone I am right.

I will say I have lived through past depressions and recession and I can see what's different.

As long as the USA has plentiful farmland, industry and natural resources we will be fine long term. Other countries without such will be in decline.

 

[Longwalkhome]

As long as the USA has plentiful farmland, industry and natural resources we will be fine long term. Other countries without such will be in decline.

Good luck to you.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Bu-bu-bu-but Bill Gates owns 0.000125% of the farm land and he's going starve us all out!!!!!

 

[GWS]

I never argue but base my opinion on a long lifetime of observation. I could go through step by step how the country is crashing but I have no need to convince anyone I am right.

I will say I have lived through past depressions and recession and I can see what's different.

I've lived through the previous recessions as well and we've always come out. I have faith we'll weather this storm too.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I've lived through the previous recessions as well and we've always come out. I have faith we'll weather this storm too.

There is a huge accumulation of reasons we won't but I guess folks will always have hope.

Good luck to you too.

 

[The Heretic]

I never argue but base my opinion on a long lifetime of observation. I could go through step by step how the country is crashing but I have no need to convince anyone I am right.

I will say I have lived through past depressions and recession and I can see what's different.

Since the last US depression ended about 90 years ago, you are either quite old, you lived thru a depression in another country, or your definition of "depression" is not the classic one.

 

[VanceInWA]

Since the last US depression ended about 90 years ago, you are either quite old, you lived thru a depression in another country, or your definition of "depression" is not the classic one.

Actually, 2020 into 2021 may qualify as a depression. Unfortunately, there is no standard definition for either a depression or recession, but here's a definition of depression provided by Merriam: "A major downswing (far more severe than a downward trend) in the business cycle; one which is characterized by sharply reduced industrial production, widespread unemployment, a serious decline or cessation of growth in construction, and great reductions in international trade and capital movements. Recessions may be limited geographically (limited to a single country), whereas depressions (such as the Great Depression of the 1930s) can occur across many nations."

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Since the last US depression ended about 90 years ago, you are either quite old, you lived thru a depression in another country, or your definition of "depression" is not the classic one.

Did he edit the post, because I see the word 'recession' not depression

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Actually, 2020 into 2021 may qualify as a depression. Unfortunately, there is no standard definition for either a depression or recession, but here's a definition of depression provided by Merriam: "A major downswing (far more severe than a downward trend) in the business cycle; one which is characterized by sharply reduced industrial production, widespread unemployment, a serious decline or cessation of growth in construction, and great reductions in international trade and capital movements. Recessions may be limited geographically (limited to a single country), whereas depressions (such as the Great Depression of the 1930s) can occur across many nations."

How can there be no standard definition when you follow that with the definition?

 

[mhayd93]

How can there be no standard definition when you follow that with the definition?

Because there is no actual numerical measurement in that definition. Thus the 2008-2009 economic downturn is often just considered a recession, when according to the generalized definition, it could seemingly also be categorized as a full on depression.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Since the last US depression ended about 90 years ago, you are either quite old, you lived thru a depression in another country, or your definition of "depression" is not the classic one.

I am old but lived through the government created spotted owl depression. The big one we are in now will surpass the great depression and most of us won't be alive to see the country come out of it.

It won't be long now, you can tell by the war talk to cover up their financial folly.

It's only right you folks don't agree as everyone has a normalcy bias.. Plus it doesn't make me happy I am right as I have family that will suffer but there is no stopping it.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Because there is no actual numerical measurement in that definition. Thus the 2008-2009 economic downturn is often just considered a recession, when according the the generalized definition, it could seemingly also be categorized as a full on depression.

What is the difference between a recession and a depression? - San Francisco Fed

Dr. Econ explains the difference between a recession and a depression.

www.frbsf.org

While you can see from the above discussion that recessions and depressions are serious business, some economists have been known to suggest that there is another more casual way to explain the difference between a recession and a depression (recall that I began this answer with a promise of a joke):

When your neighbor loses their job, it's a recession.
When you lose your job, that's a depression!

 

[The Heretic]

What is the difference between a recession and a depression? - San Francisco Fed

Dr. Econ explains the difference between a recession and a depression.

www.frbsf.org

While you can see from the above discussion that recessions and depressions are serious business, some economists have been known to suggest that there is another more casual way to explain the difference between a recession and a depression (recall that I began this answer with a promise of a joke):

When your neighbor loses their job, it's a recession.
When you lose your job, that's a depression!

Ok - meant as a joke, but seriously I have been unemployed many times.

The first five years of my adult life I was unemployed more often than employed, and when I was employed I only made min wage. In the following years (after the military) I was unemployed 8 times, one of those times I was unemployed for 2 years (almost to the day - 2 years and 2 days).

None of those times, including 70s & 80s, the dot com crunch, or the housing bubble, would be a depression. Now the last 2 years, the unemployment rate tried to approach the Great Depression, but not the economy - not really even close.

Did some sectors get hit hard? Yes, but not across the board like the Great Depression.

My parents and grandparents live thru those hard times, and this is not even close, nor has any time been since I was born almost 68 years ago.

 

[Mono1]

As long as the USA has plentiful farmland, industry and natural resources we will be fine long term.

And the RKBA

 

[VanceInWA]

Because there is no actual numerical measurement in that definition. Thus the 2008-2009 economic downturn is often just considered a recession, when according the the generalized definition, it could seemingly also be categorized as a full on depression.

You get it...

 

[GWS]

I am old but lived through the government created spotted owl depression. The big one we are in now will surpass the great depression and most of us won't be alive to see the country come out of it.

It won't be long now, you can tell by the war talk to cover up their financial folly.

It's only right you folks don't agree as everyone has a normalcy bias.. Plus it doesn't make me happy I am right as I have family that will suffer but there is no stopping it.

Wars are a great way out of a depression. Industry ramps up, jobs created, shortages accepted and excess population gets thinned out.
At 65+, I may be in the excess column but maybe not.
On the plus side, if war comes to the USA, 52% of the liberals will run away. That's excess population I'm willing to be shed of.

 

[Mono1]

Since the last US depression ended about 90 years ago, you are either quite old, you lived thru a depression in another country, or your definition of "depression" is not the classic one.

My thinking is that the 1930's deflationary episode taught the Federal Reserve members all they need to know to discourage that event from ever happening again, no matter what the cost. When in doubt now, they will print. To whatever extent it becomes necessary.

The greater risk is hyperinflation.

 

[albin25]

Don't forget that the '29 crash was made worse/longer by the "dust Bowl" years ... roughly 1930 - 1936.
That was a big part of what makes the 1930's Depression years so ...uhhh...well..."Great".

We're currently entering another drought cycle, with much bigger population pressures, and severely depleted water-tables ... another crash and we're going to be going all "Grapes of Wrath" again...... O' Brother

 

[Longwalkhome]

Wars are a great way out of a depression. Industry ramps up, jobs created, shortages accepted and excess population gets thinned out.
At 65+, I may be in the excess column but maybe not.
On the plus side, if war comes to the USA, 52% of the liberals will run away. That's excess population I'm willing to be shed of.

If I were to list all the policies that are crashing America about 55% of folks would say I am just bias or negative in my views and not something folks should read. Most of the rest are secure in their lives and don't want to be bothered with doom and gloom. Head in the sand or living life with a blindfold on, it's how the nation got into the mess its in.

My original intention was talking survival when a crash hits. Things you have to do that will help you through. I find that there is such disagreement that I would be wasting my time. Best to let it play out and let folks struggle, that brings learning.

So good luck gents, so far inflation has stolen $5,200 from every average American family and its going up.

 

[pogi]

As long as the USA has plentiful farmland, industry and natural resources we will be fine long term. Other countries without such will be in decline.

Uncle Sugar's goal is to take 7 million acres offline in the next 7 years and place into CRP for "climate change". US farm production will go down, it will be more lucrative for many farmers to not farm (i.e. sit on welfare), meanwhile, foreign production will increase (in South America at the expense of the Amazon basin).