Mike Burry bets the market will crash!

[Soli]

Is everything a lesson in not trusting the news? Why yes, yes it is. "Michael Burry, of 'Big Short' fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash" is one headline.

No he didn't.

First, he "bet" sometime in Apr-Jun; at the end of the quarter he had securities (derivatives) on QQQ and SPY. He didn't "just" do it. It's August, he may not even hold them anymore. (Tho what those have done since make me think he's holding; his securities have probably dropped in value, so he probably didn't sell them.)

Second and more important the amount in the headline is the nominal value, not the cash he put down. It's like making a $100 bet on Elon Muskfor President today (currently at +50,000 chance, so paying say 500:1), and saying you "just bet $50,000 on Musk being President".

It's the same type of lying that's plagued gun reporting forever. And now infects everything in the "news". Damn these people.

-- edit lol Elon's at 50k not 5k --

 

[T22]

Anyone seen when the puts expire? I've been looking and could find it, I'm thinking my VIX calls are about to turn into a Staccato…

 

[Member 34319]

Is everything a lesson in not trusting the news? Why yes, yes it is. "Michael Burry, of 'Big Short' fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash" is one headline.

No he didn't.

First, he "bet" sometime in Apr-Jun; at the end of the quarter he had securities (derivatives) on QQQ and SPY. He didn't "just" do it. It's August, he may not even hold them anymore. (Tho what those have done since make me think he's holding; his securities have probably dropped in value, so he probably didn't sell them.)

Second and more important the amount in the headline is the nominal value, not the cash he put down. It's like making a $100 bet on Elon Muskfor President today (currently at +50,000 chance, so paying say 500:1), and saying you "just bet $50,000 on Musk being President".

It's the same type of lying that's plagued gun reporting forever. And now infects everything in the "news". Damn these people.

-- edit lol Elon's at 50k not 5k --

Buzz kill!

 

[MTFrontiersman]

As much as I'm not prepared, the sooner the better.

 

[Cavedweller]

This is true but people need a place to live. Unfortunately, most young people today are priced out of the market. We bought this house on 5 acres about 20 years ago for $235k and today it is worth over a million dollars. This seems outrageous until you see a watermelon for 10 bucks!

The dollar ain't what it used to be.

 

[ma96782]

Maybe you're wanting/asking for more info?

Michael Burry, of ‘Big Short’ fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, has bet more than $1.6 billion on a Wall Street crash.

www.yahoo.com

Aloha, Mark

 

[arakboss]

Money, property, the stock market…. they only have "value" because enough people believe they do.

Ponzi schemes, don't be the last ones out.

 

[Snip]

If the Feds keep raising the interest rate, more businesses will have a harder time borrowing and when they do borrow, it's much more costly. This leads to reduced value of the company which should lower their stock prices. The Feds have pretty much killed inflation and they are going to kill off the businesses next.

If the Fed raises interest rates again, I'd expect the market to go down. Maybe that's what Burry is betting on.

 

[zcap]

Is everything a lesson in not trusting the news? Why yes, yes it is. "Michael Burry, of 'Big Short' fame, just bet $1.6 billion on a stock market crash" is one headline.

No he didn't.

First, he "bet" sometime in Apr-Jun; at the end of the quarter he had securities (derivatives) on QQQ and SPY. He didn't "just" do it. It's August, he may not even hold them anymore. (Tho what those have done since make me think he's holding; his securities have probably dropped in value, so he probably didn't sell them.)

Second and more important the amount in the headline is the nominal value, not the cash he put down. It's like making a $100 bet on Elon Muskfor President today (currently at +50,000 chance, so paying say 500:1), and saying you "just bet $50,000 on Musk being President".

It's the same type of lying that's plagued gun reporting forever. And now infects everything in the "news". Damn these people.

-- edit lol Elon's at 50k not 5k --

Agreed, the media is a disaster. Excluding derivative contracts, Burry's long portfolio value increased by roughly 4% quarter over quarter. IOW, he didn't sell everything and go to cash. Outright short positions are not show on 13F, so it is just the option contracts that have been the subject of the crash speculation.

Regarding the "bet", since the 13F only show the underlying CUSIPs, all we know is that at some point he purchased puts on 2,000,000 SPY shares and 2,000,000 QQQ shares. Since we don't know the dates, strikes and most importantly the premium he paid, these contracts could just be an out of the money hedge that is a small percentage of his portfolio or these contracts could be his largest individual positions if they are at or near the money.

We don't know, which of course gives the media plenty of room for hyperbole.

 

[Burt Gummer]

Followed up on his prediction. Been wrong a lot of times about the Stock Market (never abide) so no opinion. It definitely will go 'poof' at some point however as Gov't has a lot of scare narratives lined up that will wreck confidence.

 

[Member 34319]

Figured as much. I enjoy watching the market. My knowledge of all things finance is insignificant at best and I usually just watch, but on occasion I'll throw some money in the water and see if something bites. I can't imagine the world these folks exist in, playing the game at the level they do.

 

[Burt Gummer]

If you're not Nancy Pelosi and getting insider info in exchange for cooperating/accepting bribes, the SM in general is no different than gambling imo.

 

[Xmark1]

I must confess that I don't know diddly about the S M.

I do. It's rigged against the private investor.

 

[Provincial]

I do. It's rigged against the private investor.

The insiders have to have a gullible counter-party to take the losing side on the transaction. That is the "little" guy.

 

[Xmark1]

The insiders have to have a gullible counter-party to take the losing side on the transaction. That is the "little" guy.

You totally nailed it!

 

[American123]

If you're not Nancy Pelosi and getting insider info in exchange for cooperating/accepting bribes, the SM in general is no different than gambling imo.

It's not that bad, you just have to not be really dumb with choices and you have to not need the money soon. For example, GUT pays a 5 cent dividend per month. It's more than 8% annually, even if it goes down some in the short term. That dividend is about twice what the best bank rates are paying. Maybe it goes up a little and you sell for a profit, plus the dividends that occurred throughout the time, maybe it stays lower for a while than you bought it for and you hold it for longer, but still get the dividends.

No one should ever put money in the market they may need within a year, but looking at trends and buying dips in well established companies and then selling for some modest gains isn't that difficult.

Those overnight millionaires where people "bet it all" on a longshot, that's made a lot of people poor too. Not my thing.

 

[Angie]

Articles have been running this same headline for about 4 years now. I'm not holding my breath. Nothing in the market is behaving as it "should." As long as you still have GenX investing in the market weekly via 401Ks and IRAs, it will continue to grow.

 

[Provincial]

Articles have been running this same headline for about 4 years now. I'm not holding my breath. Nothing in the market is behaving as it "should." As long as you still have GenX investing in the market weekly via 401Ks and IRAs, it will continue to grow.

I call it "force-feeding" the market.

 

[wired]

If you invested $50,000 in the Dow in August of 1993, you now have $174,350.


But yeah, my brother just retired and is rolling his 401k into cd's.

Says he no longer wants to gamble with his retirement.

Pension and ssi is double what he lives on anyways.

Youd have made more with gold or real estate. A lot more

 

[Burt Gummer]

Central Bank Digital Currencies will be the end of us all. The biggest threat for all freedoms on the horizon. All that is needed is an excuse to force deploy it. An FF, etc. Then bank holidays, turn in your cash. It will appear benevolent at first to curb revolt, but then the financial 'boot' as it is will be fully deployed on the gullible masses. A year or two down the line = forbidden purchases like weapons or ammo, social credit scoring (I am screwed) and the like.

Many on this forum hate China with a passion. The truth is we will become China or worse in most people's lifetimes here.