Survival: So Simple it's Profound

[jbett98]

Finally, the profound part has materialized.

 

[Ura-Ki]

cdmontgo Why are you even here? It seems to me that you are not contributing any thing useful to the group, other then to pick bones with members who do take this topic seriously! Your view of things is morally warped and is pretty telling of what kind of person you really are! First time I have considered the Ignore button for quite a while

 

[Koda]

@The Heretic thanks for the better perspective on looting from a larger corporation I have to agree with that.

it is a much more likely scenario that I'll (or many of you) will retire in life than this 9.0+ happens that "crushes" Portland.

So after 18 pages of conversation where do we stand on the odds of the Cascadia quake happening within out lifetime, lets say within the next 50 years roughly? I thought there was plenty of scientific evidence the odds were around 40%

OSU indicates a 1:3 chance of it happening. <broken link removed>
Wikipedia cites sources that in 2010 geologists predicted a 37 percent chance of an M8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10 to 15 percent chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with an M9+ event within the same time frame.
1700 Cascadia earthquake - Wikipedia

I think you are overstating "how bad they say it will be". Posts from this thread say it won't be a huge deal in the PDX area which is where I am.

I dont recall anyone saying it wont be a huge deal here...?

every article I've read indicates the damage is going to be great in Portland. Not as bad as the coastal towns obviously but thats not saying it wont be a huge deal. here is a link to a study done that shows (scroll down) most all of Portland well into the "moderate" level of destruction: https://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/01_ORP_Cascadia.pdf

google is full of easy searches about this quakes potential, and none of them look good.

more about the damage to Portland... if we refer to the OPB link I shared way back and put in a random zip code for Portland it estimates this... (screenshot)

that doesn't look like something to ignore.



Aftershock

 

[cdmontgo]

cdmontgo Why are you even here? It seems to me that you are not contributing any thing useful to the group, other then to pick bones with members who do take this topic seriously! Your view of things is morally warped and is pretty telling of what kind of person you really are! First time I have considered the Ignore button for quite a while

Use it if you wish. I don't think a number of you understand what preparing is about.

 

[cdmontgo]

I dont recall anyone saying it wont be a huge deal here...?

Reread the thread.

 

[Ura-Ki]

Interesting look Koda, I ran several ZIP codes into that AfterShock site, and the results pretty much back/support what ever one in this thread is saying!

 

[cdmontgo]

I'm not trying to be insulting. Do what you think is best. I'll do the same.

 

[Koda]

Interesting look Koda, I ran several ZIP codes into that AfterShock site, and the results pretty much back/support what ever one in this thread is saying!

more importantly it supports what every news article and research study Ive read indicates.

my guess is that we should up our preps to last 1 year off grid. ?

 

[Ura-Ki]

Agree 150% Koda. When I was still in Beaverton ( let alone Orygun) I had about 1 years preps for the wife and I, Not going to cut it now i'm afraid.

 

[Libertas7]

my guess is that we should up our preps to last 1 year off grid. ?

Another reason I like gardening.

 

[Xaevian]

The chances of a quake hitting the Cascadia in the next 3 days is probably 100 percent. There is no way to predict the magnitude. Ever. Or where it will take place, or if it will be shallow or deep in the crust, or if it will create a tidal wave, or how much of the fault will be involved. Anyone who says otherwise is just using pseudoscience. There are hundreds of quakes recorded each year in the PNW, even though you may not feel them or read about them in the news. None are predicted in advance. Computer models are no good if they are given guestimates because it is not possible to accurately measure stress levels in massive amounts of material you can't even see nor know the makeup of beyond ground penetrating sonar. New faults and fissures are discovered here all the time. Really, you will never know. But it is a fun question to ask. The only thing that you can be sure of is yes, there will be hundreds of quakes along that zone in your lifetime.

 

[Xaevian]

Idle musings: there are 137 oil refineries in the United States. 30 of those are located in West Coast States; 25 in CA and 5 in WA (sorry OR, maybe related to not being allowed to pump your own gas) . That is almost 25 percent US capacity. Along with the ports and military bases, you bet your glutius maximus the Fed will be working overtime on repairing infrastructure. Unless you live no where near one of these places or on a major route to/from. This isn't a NOLA ward with little strategic or national economic value we're talking about. You can't underestimate that.

 

[NCW_Robert]

I live just a few miles out of town there are seven small bridges and small over passages that will collapse the day this happens!
Have you ever taken the time to look at every little stream, river or valley subject to liquefaction or overpass collapse?
Most of us are not driving any ware once the crap hits the fan.
Silver Hand

If SHTF and is it the 9.0+ earthquake I am totally screwed...

I live on a hill, so house will no longer be livable.

I live right at the confluence of 2 large rivers = lots of bridges, no mater what way I look at it, I am not getting home if I am far away when the big one hits. And when I finally do make it home days or even weeks later, there will be no home left, just kindling wood.

I think I need to move...

Regarding that truck and stranded on the free way scenario You ether will walk home or you better have a killer on/off road dirtbike in the back bed. I would probably store the bike laying down in the bed with a bed cover. You could pack a lot of fuel & supplies around the bike under the bed cover.

Make sure it is a 4 stroke but not so big it gets bad gas mileage, put an extendable snorkel on it and maybe have a decent size raft mounted on the front rolled up, one you know could float that bike across a river.

Pack bolt/wire cutters so if need be you can get through any fence as needed. A small portable GPS with street and back road maps on it with extra batteries.

It would be a good idea to know ahead of time all possible alternate routs home if you have a long commute.

Then get on that bike and go.

~

 

[Xaevian]

I would just post "Quake Free Zone" signs and require quakes to register and undergo a wait period, but only when a "shall proceed" from a gov'the agency is received . Boom, mic drop. Best prep ever.

 

[Ura-Ki]

I already do the Duel Sport thing when ever the weather is good, my bike gets about 55 miles per gallon and has an oversize 4.8 gallon tank! I have extra fuel, and soft saddle bags plus a rack system on the tail, so I can carry enough for One person to get home! Wife hasn't decided on a bike yet, but she will probably have one this spring! My bike is nice and light ( Converted Enduro Bike, 243 pounds dry) and I can actually lift it over things if I had to, and I stripped the gear off it.

 

[Silver Hand]

If I were a few years younger, my family and I would be out of here.
Living on the coast is not the life it was forty years ago.
There are so many regulations and less of everything when it comes to fish and game.
Up until the early 80s I never went fishing, crabbing or hunting, calming or anything that I didn't catch or shoot my limit. I could easily catch twenty steel head in a morning and lift a limit of crab in one pull out in the bay from time to time.
Run down to the Sixes river and land Chinooks between 30 and fifty pounds, Life was exciting and licenses fees were reasonable.
Over the years It has turned into a money grab for the state and the wild life just is not there in the same numbers here on the coast.

These days there are so many people up from California and other places you cannot find a place to stand along the rivers even though there are so few fish.
It is attractive but that in it's self would not enough keep me in this state.
Silver Hand

 

[NCW_Robert]

If I were a few years younger, my family and I would be out of here.
Living on the coast is not the life it was forty years ago.
There are so many regulations and less of everything when it comes to fish and game.
Up until the early 80s I never went fishing, crabbing or hunting, calming or anything that I didn't catch or shoot my limit. I could easily catch twenty steel head in a morning and lift a limit of crab in one pull out in the bay from time to time.
Run down to the Sixes river and land Chinooks between 30 and fifty pounds, Life was exciting and licenses fees were reasonable.
Over the years It has turned into a money grab for the state and the wild life just is not there in the same numbers here on the coast.

These days there are so many people up from California and other places you cannot find a place to stand along the rivers even though there are so few fish.
It is attractive but that in it's self would not enough keep me in this state.
Silver Hand

Tell you what, the ocean can feed you far into the future. Go inland and you better be a farmer as the lakes/rivers and land is going to be quickly stripped of every living creature quickly. Very few rabbits squirrels or deer and just about Zero fish to catch. That leaves what you can grow.

In SHTF, if you know how and you live on the coast, you will almost always be able to catch something now and in 6 months and in 6 years while your inland brothers starve.

If I were you I would be looking for a more remote coastal location but still, on the coast.

I think a killer SHTF survival scheme might just involve a decent size sail boat and a remote coastal cabin. Heck, big enough sail boat and you can just cruse the coast and live off what you can catch. Inland people try that after every one kills every possible game animal and fish in existence.

150 or more years ago coastal Indian tribes were well fed compared to the inland tribes who had to eat roots and grubs if food was scarce. Coastal Indians could almost always find food and often find a lot and get it pretty easily. The Lewis and Clark stories tell of well fed coastal Indians who had enough food to share and barter.

SHTF? I would rather be living on the coast. Now if the 9+ earthquake hit and a tidal wave came in and wiped me out, oh well but if it was any other SHTF situation, your 5 yr survival rate would probably be 100% while your inland brothers are killing each other over a stale potato chip.

~

 

[EPS]

I was thinking about what I'd do to get home in a particular disaster scenario, like I often do, and suddenly a light came on. I thought I'd present it to other forum members in a fun sort of way to get us thinking. I'll reveal what my revelation was in a few days, but first I would like to know how others think they may solve the same problem and what ideas you all have about Survival: So Simple it's Profound.

Imagine you're driving home through Oregon or Washington on I-5 when the "Big One" hits, a full-margin rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone causing a 9.0+ earthquake. Once the shaking stops you realize that it's time to move while you still can to try and reduce the number of miles between yourself and your home where you have resources and shelter. While others sit in awe, you begin to drive even if it means using the shoulder; the traffic situation isn't going to improve, but rather worsen.

You get about 10 miles before vehicles completely block the highway. The only path available is across the meridian to the empty freeway leading back the way you came, but that won't help complete the mission: to get home. The closest major off ramp is 20 miles back and you have no idea what lies in the opposing lanes beyond where you were when the quake occurred. You decide the best option is to explore finding a way to continue forward.

You exit your vehicle and speak with a truck driver who is on his CB radio. He shares that an overpass is completely collapsed and entirely blocking the freeway and it's shoulders around the corner about 3/4 mile ahead; traffic is blocked in both directions. You realize that you may ultimately end up walking home, but the immediate goal here is to get past this obstacle and continue reducing the number of miles you will need to cover on foot. You walk for 15 minutes and confirm what the truck driver told you: an overpass completely blocks the freeway and traffic is stopped in both directions. There are dozens of other drivers like you staring at the scene and wondering what to do next. How will you get around this obstacle since driving around is not an option even in your jacked-up, locker-and-winch-equipped, mil-spec, go-"anywhere", bad-boy, Tapout sticker-sporting pickup truck, much less my Honda CR-V?

While considering possible solutions to this particular problem, please feel free to share any other ideas that you may have about survival that are so simple and outside-the-box, they're profound. Have fun, but please keep it reality-based.

I think about this all the time because I am a truck driver I drive to Eastern WA and ID every week twice a week I am not allowed to carry gun but have knife and I have a travel pack that goes with me with 3 MREs and 4 bottle of water I have other weapons too that are not really weapons but tools for the job that could be used as weapons so yes it would be a long walk for me depends on where I'm at when it happens but I would probably be stealing cars and what ever probley a motorcycle would be best but got to do what you got to do lol who knows might be able to find someone to travel with and help out but then again in that case every one is kinda on there own

 

[EPS]

Another thing most people are not prepared for it so it will be Every man for himself sad to say but if you want to survive and get home you might have to kill to do it because it will be a f@$#!+% wild zoo out there

 

[NCW_Robert]

Another thing most people are not prepared for it so it will be Every man for himself sad to say but if you want to survive and get home you might have to kill to do it because it will be a f@$#!+% wild zoo out there

I would never rob and steel and kill to do it, I would kill in defense only. Steeling a car or bike, only if I really felt no other way was available and I would not car jack some one to do it.

If I am to die in a SHTF situation, I'd rather breath my last breath knowing I had the moral high ground and was not dying because I was a thief and was caught in the act by some one like me who was defending himself and his stash for his family.

Now if I had to rock and roll and light up a marauding gang that was just going around taking what they want with no regard for others, kill or be killed, so be it.

~