Preparing for Insurgency.

[American123]

My feeling is they need to look at the tactics used by Taliban, IS, Viet Cong, etc. Those groups didn't necessarily stock up on a bunch of supplies to shelter in place and they improvised heavily. Many weren't afraid to die either. They were able to attract people and aid from across the world to prolong the insurgency. Occupied people should also plan for ways to cause doubts among the occupiers about the value of the occupation. Ukraine will have plenty of support but Russia is going to need to feel a lot of pain before they are willing to leave.

Every conflict that America has "lost" since WWII, or not decisively won was because of politics and not because of lack of military capabilities.

Any guerrilla effort that is completely outmatched in every single way cannot win unless there is a political angle to be leveraged. As has been previously mentioned, human losses will occur, the guerrilla group has to have the stomach to lose constantly and continue regardless. The Taliban and the Vietcong accomplished the same thing, both were extremely prolonged engagements because politics kept the military from killing people and being done with it. Those prolonged engagements were extremely expensive and eventually the populace just grows tired of what they perceive is an endless war with no reason to continue. Where public opinion goes, politics follows. Individuals died, the groups themselves survived, even if they are different individuals than before.

The difference between the US and other world powers in my opinion (thinking Russia and China) is that other world powers are less concerned with politics and humanitarian crisis. One of the greatest difficulty with any invading force is trying to reduce civilian casualties while fighting the militant component of the populace. If you simply don't care about slaughtering civilians along with militant opposition then it becomes far easier for the invading force to win. No humans = no ability to fight. This is what I view is an achilles heel for any American based war effort that our enemies don't share.

Note: I make no mention of morality, only strategy.

 

[American123]

Additionally:

I think of war similar to credit. Their's character, capacity, collateral and capital.

To wage warfare you need:
The willingness
The know how
The capability
The resources

I don't believe most western people with their multiple generations of comfortable, predominantly peaceful existences have what it takes at this point. How many people have all 4 of those things? In Ukraine you've got some people showing up who are willing but with not the other 3. Being handed a rifle is only part of the puzzle. They'd probably be more effective handing everyone a few grenades. That was a incredibly demoralizing tactic used against Americans in Vietnam. American GI's typically like kids, hand a kid a grenade and have him go hug the GI and blow himself up. American GI's didn't think that way because the thought of having a kid do that was just inconceivable. Ukrainians aren't facing Americans though and I don't know to what extent Russian soldiers are trained to lack care for other humans. I do know that children aren't appreciated the same in every country equally though, that's evident simply by what some cultures allow to happen to children.

Long story short. War sucks, but if we are talking about guerrilla actions, if the desire is to win then no action is off the table.

 

[Cavedweller]

Any guerrilla effort that is completely outmatched in every single way cannot win unless there is a political angle to be leveraged.

Guerrilla warfare is not a strategy for victory. It is only a temporary method for a militarily weaker power to engage a stronger power on its own terms until a shift in the balance of power takes place. There are certain principles of conducting a guerrilla war that the weaker power typically employs. They include, but are not limited to:

1) Choosing the time and place of engagement such that the weaker power has a temporary advantage. Ambush is a key component of this.
2) Using what are commonly known as "hit and run" tactics. Avoiding set piece battles.
3) Sabotage and terrorism.
4) Forcing the stronger power to employ ever more repressive measures that eventually turn the population against it.

Once the balance of power shifts, the guerrilla force then shifts to conventional warfare tactics. That is guerrilla warfare 101.

 

[American123]

Guerrilla warfare is not a strategy for victory. It is only a temporary method for a militarily weaker power to engage a stronger power on its own terms until a shift in the balance of power takes place. There are certain principles of conducting a guerrilla war that the weaker power typically employs. They include, but are not limited to:

1) Choosing the time and place of engagement such that the weaker power has a temporary advantage. Ambush is a key component of this.
2) Using what are commonly known as "hit and run" tactics. Avoiding set piece battles.
3) Sabotage and terrorism.
4) Forcing the stronger power to employ ever more repressive measures that eventually turn the population against it.

Once the balance of power shifts, the guerrilla force then shifts to conventional warfare tactics. That is guerrilla warfare 101.

I disagree. Guerrilla warfare is completely a strategy for victory if political leverage as previously described is the goal, especially if you define victory by the bigger, stronger force leaving and going home.

You first have to define "victory," my two examples of Afghanistan and Vietnam show that those forces didn't have to defeat American military to win, they only had to make American politics decide to stop fighting. It took decades, but it worked. The communists took over Vietnam and the Taliban run Afghanistan now despite America being able to bomb them into the stone age.

 

[billdeserthills]

and I will repeat all the ammo and weapons in the World wont support you in a long term resistance if you don't know how to grow your own food and have an independent water supply
and many Americans won't survive without social interaction
other than my family, I think I talked to a human at the tractor store 3 weeks ago
I can live without human interaction

You are getting human interaction on this forum...

 

[Cavedweller]

I disagree. Guerrilla warfare is completely a strategy for victory if political leverage as previously described is the goal, especially if you define victory by the bigger, stronger force leaving and going home.

You first have to define "victory," my two examples of Afghanistan and Vietnam show that those forces didn't have to defeat American military to win, they only had to make American politics decide to stop fighting. It took decades, but it worked. The communists took over Vietnam and the Taliban run Afghanistan now despite America being able to bomb them into the stone age.

See point number 4 above. The stronger force leaving and going home is the shift in the balance of power that allows the guerrilla force to achieve battlefield supremacy and ultimate victory. But they can't win using guerrilla tactics. They must shift to conventional warfare. When the North Vietnamese overran S. Vietnam, it was with conventional tactics. When the Taliban overran Kabul, they were no longer using guerrilla tactics.

You can disagree all you want, but that is what the textbooks on guerrilla warfare say. I've read a few.

 

[American123]

See point number 4 above. The stronger force leaving and going home is the shift in the balance of power that allows the guerrilla force to achieve battlefield supremacy and ultimate victory. But they can't win using guerrilla tactics. They must shift to conventional warfare. When the North Vietnamese overran S. Vietnam, it was with conventional tactics. When the Taliban overran Kabul, they were no longer using guerrilla tactics.

You can disagree all you want, but that is what the textbooks on guerrilla warfare say. I've read a few.

Ok, I see what you are saying, yes, I agree with that.

 

[rjmt]

At this point?

so, someone is going to carpet bomb my little 5 acres on a remote mountain side?
isn't that a waste of ordinance?
I checked the prevailing winds when I purchased this place - since I'm between Portland and the ocean, even aerial attacks on Portland will not reach out here
when we dug our well, I checked for ash for Mt St Helens - even that eruption, which happened just 30 miles away did not affect my property

 

[rjmt]

And you are stockpiling ammo for that Type 56 right.

 

[Cavedweller]

so, someone is going to carpet bomb my little 5 acres on a remote mountain side?
isn't that a waste of ordinance?
I checked the prevailing winds when I purchased this place - since I'm between Portland and the ocean, even aerial attacks on Portland will not reach out here
when we dug our well, I checked for ash for Mt St Helens - even that eruption, which happened just 30 miles away did not affect my property

Sorry, but I thought the topic of this thread was how the next possible nation to be the subject of a Russian invasion could prepare to conduct an insurgency, not how you could hide out on 5 acres while providing your family with a healthy diet. Forgive me for taking things too literally.

 

[rjmt]

Sorry, but I thought the topic of this thread was how the next possible nation to be the subject of a Russian invasion could prepare to conduct an insurgency, not how you could hide out on 5 acres while providing your family with a healthy diet. Forgive me for taking things too literally.

"how would you recommend the next set of victims prepare for a long term insurgency to wear down and drive out a long term occupier"

I didn't see Russian mentioned in the introduction by the OP

I have prepared for a collapse in our social structure for any reason, political, military , natural disaster or pandemic

 

[Cavedweller]

I didn't see Russian mentioned in the introduction by the OP

I'll give you that.

"how would you recommend the next set of victims prepare for a long term insurgency to wear down and drive out a long term occupier"

I have prepared for a collapse in our social structure for any reason, political, military , natural disaster or pandemic

So you are going to wear an invader down and drive them out by growing raspberries?

Never mind, I didn't think he was even talking about us. It appeared to me he was talking about other European nations bordering Russia.

Cheers.

 

[arakboss]

I'll give you that.

So you are going to wear an invader down and drive them out by growing raspberries?

Never mind, I didn't think he was even talking about us. It appeared to me he was talking about other European nations bordering Russia.

Cheers.

"It appeared to me he was talking about other European nations bordering Russia."

This is a much more likely scenario and China's neighbors may have to worry about this as well.

 

[OldTengu]

The main Afghani strategy is time. They're otherwise not entirely effective, but eventually the conquering power (and its people) just grow fatigued from Afghani niggling and depart, even if it takes 20 years. Not a difficult country to conquer, but extraordinarily difficult to occupy.

Afghanistan isn't known as "The Graveyard of Empires" for no reason.

 

[308]

"Prepare for Insurgency"

 

[strangedays]

Propaganda does not need to be true or accurate in order to work.
Andy

Exactly we see it first hand from Palestine.

 

[Diamondback]

Look at the outrage generated by that Mohawk Indian lady in Ottawa who Trudeau's mounted Sturmtruppen trampled and everyone thought they'd killed her... reported death provoked huge backlash that didn't go away even after she was released from the hospital and made a statement.

 

[Longwalkhome]

We are kinda in the same spot as in WWII, possibly a two front war and the draft about to kick in. Fortunately those drafted will be in a woke military.

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

 

[AlwaysOnTheGo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497896671694532608

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497987127384154114