Preparing for Insurgency.

[arakboss]

It should be clear to most now, that Ukraine doesn't stand a chance at resisting Russia's invasion and occupation in the short term. We have seen other groups of people engage in long term insurgencies against large occupying agressors. It's a little late for many Ukrainians to prepare for an insurgency now but how would you recommend the next set of victims prepare for a long term insurgency to wear down and drive out a long term occupier?

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[arakboss]

My feeling is they need to look at the tactics used by Taliban, IS, Viet Cong, etc. Those groups didn't necessarily stock up on a bunch of supplies to shelter in place and they improvised heavily. Many weren't afraid to die either. They were able to attract people and aid from across the world to prolong the insurgency. Occupied people should also plan for ways to cause doubts among the occupiers about the value of the occupation. Ukraine will have plenty of support but Russia is going to need to feel a lot of pain before they are willing to leave.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

Something to consider is that a successful insurgency takes time.
I am not talking about weeks , months , etc...here.
I am talking about a society's conception of time...as well as how long said society holds on to grudges and the like.

Also important is to not discount propaganda....Propaganda used by the Viet Minh , Viet Cong and NVA was very effective in getting certain views out and across to both the countries they were fighting as well as the rest of the world.
Andy

 

[JohnnyMac]

Buy cheap and stack deep.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

Another thing to consider is :
You can take almost anything....how long you can hold on to it or how much it costs you to keep it , may be another matter all together.
Andy

 

[arakboss]

Something to consider is that a successful insurgency takes time.
I am not talking about weeks , months , etc...here.
I am talking about a society's conception of time...as well as how long said society holds on to grudges and the like.

Also important is to not discount propaganda....Propaganda used by the Viet Minh , Viet Cong and NVA was very effective in getting certain views out and across to both the countries they were fighting as well as the rest of the world.
Andy

If the Russians had broken up a human chain of people blocking one of their routes with extreme violence, it could have been good propaganda for Ukraine. If the Russians (or Russian lookalikes) were caught on camera desecrating part of a Ukraine china town and killing or appearing to kill) a chinese shopkeeper or three, that could also be good propaganda. If the Russians were caught on camera desecrating mosque and killing muslims inside the mosque, that could be good propaganda. If "Russian" troops were to fire artillery over into a neighboring NATO country that could be useful.

There are many angles that could be exploited over there but so far I haven't seen it being done.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

If the Russians had broken up a human chain of people blocking one of their routes with extreme violence, it could have been good propaganda for Ukraine. If the Russians (or Russian lookalikes) were caught on camera desecrating part of a Ukraine china town and killing or appearing to kill) a chinese shopkeeper or three, that could also be good propaganda. If the Russians were caught on camera desecrating mosque and killing muslims inside the mosque, that could be good propaganda. If "Russian" troops were to fire artillery over into a neighboring NATO country that could be useful.

There are many angles that could be exploited over there but so far I haven't seen it being done.

Propaganda does not need to be true or accurate in order to work.
Andy

 

[arakboss]

Propaganda does not need to be true or accurate in order to work.
Andy

And there is no reason Ukrainians need to limit their battle to Ukraine. Russia's interest across the globe and seas should be fair game for the Ukrainians. It needs to be very painful and costly before Russia will relent. Ukraine can't win with convential warfare but there are plenty of unconventional ways that Ukrainians can cause pain, especially if they are assisted or at least left free to roam by friendly countries. That propaganda needs to be directed at China as well. Without China, Russia can be made to wallow in their own selfmade misery.

 

[Jay Walk]

It should be clear to most now, that Ukraine doesn't stand a chance at resisting Russia's invasion and occupation in the short term. We have seen other groups of people engage in long term insurgencies against large occupying agressors. It's a little late for many Ukrainians to prepare for an insurgency now but how would you recommend the next set of victims prepare for a long term insurgency to wear down and drive out a long term occupier?

Don't put away your High Cap Mags.

 

[quneur]

The Taliban and Vietcong had one advantage - terrain.

Either way, Russia has made a mess of the region for years to come. If they put in a puppet government, the country is going to be surrounded by NATO. There are also many Ukrainians who fled the country and will not accept a Russian backed leader. More likely they will use Poland as a base for attacks (cyber or physical) against the government and Russia. Or it will be like the Donbass region, a country broken up by break away republics. A mess.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

Another thought 'bout insurgency....

You will generally have three sides here :
Those who support , those who oppose and a large portion that simply wants to be left alone.
Those who want to be left alone , may fight or support one side , one day , then the other the next .
Take a look at Missouri during our so called Civil War or Vietnam in the mid 1950's to mid 1960's.

With that said...
When citing examples from the past you gotta remember that we are not talking about Missouri in 1863 or Vietnam ...but the current situation in Urkranie.
Andy

 

[Member 53328]

You got all the watches. We have all the time.

 

[Caveman Jim]

Don't put away your High Standard Cap Mags.

Fixed it for you.

 

[Longwalkhome]

Taliban booted Russia out of Afghanistan after 10 years of Russian occupation...with our help.

 

[arakboss]

Taliban booted Russia out of Afghanistan after 10 years of Russian occupation...with our help.

Technology has improved since then and I wonder if the Taliban didn't have a greater will to die.

Ukrainians will need to fight dirty and unconventionally during their insurgency to speed up the Russian pullout. For starters I would like to see nearly every cargo ship trying to come and go from Russia be a potential target of Ukrainians. Over time support for Ukraine will wane so they shouldn't drag their feet.

 

[Mathias]

My feeling is they need to look at the tactics used by Taliban, IS, Viet Cong, etc. Those groups didn't necessarily stock up on a bunch of supplies to shelter in place and they improvised heavily. Many weren't afraid to die either. They were able to attract people and aid from across the world to prolong the insurgency. Occupied people should also plan for ways to cause doubts among the occupiers about the value of the occupation. Ukraine will have plenty of support but Russia is going to need to feel a lot of pain before they are willing to leave.

 

[VanceInWA]

CLOWNS in the White House. Yesterday: "They are profound sanctions. Let's have a conversation in another month or so to see if they're working." What is the "insurgency" by Ukrainians supposed to do, sit on their hands for a month? And if it will take a month for sanctions to be effective, why the hell weren't they imposed a month ago?

Brandon: Such. A. Moron.

 

[titsonritz]

My feeling is they need to look at the tactics used by Taliban, IS, Viet Cong, etc.

Don't forget those of the traitors circa 1776 and the rebels of 1861-1865.

 

[P7M13]

For those of you who want to be a modern day Ernest Hemingway, the Ukraine conflict is your golden opportunity.

 

[titsonritz]

For those of you who want to be a modern day Ernest Hemingway, the Ukraine conflict is your golden opportunity.

or Merian C. Cooper