Operation Blood in the Streets

[Heywood]

I stay as debt free as possible which means zero debt other than a small mortgage that I have more than enough cash to pay for a few years if I lose my job. If I don't lose my job, the cash will go to purchase another foreclosed property. My wife and I have purchased 4 homes that way so when we sell the one we are in now, we won't have a mortgage and will basically be able to build our dream house with cash. Some small investments in various stock accounts. Very small amounts actually. And a bit of physical precious metals. I'm most interested in stability for my family as my #3 and #4 son are still young. When they move out on their own, I'll hit the risky stuff pretty hard. I have lots of ideas....

 

[ma96782]

55 mins til the FED announces the interest rate........

Aloha, Mark

PS...UPDATE
Fed dropped the rate 0.25%

 

[RicInOR]

Pento: "The Fed Is Panicking To Stop A Depression"






Stocks Spike After Powell Admits No Rate Hikes Unless "Significant Move Up In Inflation"

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why The Biggest Liquidity Crisis Since Lehman Isn't Stopping

Bonds, Dollar, & Stocks Bid After Hawkish Fed Cut

"It Won't Be Suffient": Wall Street Reacts To Powell's Final Hawkish "Insurance Cut"

UBS Warns: "If History Were A Perfect Guide...Stocks Would Be In A World of trouble Here"

Deutsche Tumbles After "Bad Bank" Posts Negative Revenue, IBanking Profit Plunges 73%

HSBC CEO Vows To "Remodel" Bank After Profits Plunge 24%

"How Bull Markets End" - Wells Fargo Prepares Clients For Economic Downturn

Trucking Slowdown Ahead Of Holiday Season Suggests Consumer Is Faltering

Mission Accomplished JPMorgan: Repo Market Eases Sharply As Mnuchin Says May Loosen GSIB Regs

"I See Bubbles Everywhere" - Fearful Bob Shiller Warns "There's No Place To Hide"

 

[RicInOR]

Ouch.........Intel was up 8.2% yesterday.

The last time I bought Intel it was at $70. Still has not recovered. In the previous 20 years, it had split and grown and wow. Since 2k, and the bean counters driving cpus to be commodities, (who cares what your cpu is today ) the stock had been hovering around 30 Up to 50 was a huge rise from that.

 

[nehalemguy]

The last time I bought Intel it was at $70. Still has not recovered. In the previous 20 years, it had split and grown and wow. Since 2k, and the bean counters driving cpus to be commodities, (who cares what your cpu is today ) the stock had been hovering around 30 Up to 50 was a huge rise from that.

View attachment 629183

View attachment 629184

Ok......and your point is?

I also own Intel. It has gained me 13.5% this year and also pays me $0.315 per share every quarter. It's not one of my star portfolio performers, but I'm ok with sitting on it for the long haul.

-E-

 

[joken]

All our beans are in rental housing. We have 13 units and zero debt. I rode out 08, recouped my losses and then some, and have used that cash to pay of what little debt we had. No diversification here, but the first of every month is payday. Being a landlord can be a pain in the arse, and I'm not sure how many remodels I have left in me at 72, but I'll tip over trying.

 

[RicInOR]

Ok......and your point is?

My point is it is always about time. Many of the losses from '08 have recovered. Others did not.
But when you get into an investment is when your clock starts. What is good for you may not be so good for others.
Intel 1998 ~2018 was in the 20-30 range (except for the bubble 2000-2002)
I didn't predict the value would rise from ~30 in q32017 to ~50 now.

I do like the dividend.



What will my retirement investments be worth if we have a failure of the government - ie Venezuela ? bupkis.

 

[nehalemguy]

What will my retirement investments be worth if we have a failure of the government - ie Venezuela ? bupkis.

True enough, but in that scenario cash on hand isn't going to be worth much either.

Side note....remember in 2000 when gold was about $280 oz. because everyone was losing their minds over the .com stocks? THAT was opportunity.

E

 

[ma96782]

China is talking......again there are signs that they want to back out of a trade deal and blaming TRUMP while they are at it.

Reminds me of something......

Remember the movie? Pork Chop Hill. The communist (I believe Chinese or N. Koreans) were dragging/prolonging the peace talks. Never mind that soldiers were dying. They just didn't seem to care. Their political objective was #1.

Not to mention the TRUMP impeachment vote. And, how that seems to bolster the Chinese hopes.

Then.......
The news last night also talked about N. Korea launching missiles again towards Japan.

DOW is down 225 so far this morning. 10-31-2019

Aloha, Mark

PS.....yesterday, I was at my all time highs for my retirement accounts. But.....YES, up & down. So it goes.

 

[RicInOR]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"First it was Baoshang Bank , then it was Bank of Jinzhou, then, two months ago, China's Heng Feng Bank with 1.4 trillion yuan in assets, quietly failed and was just as quietly nationalized. Today, a fourth prominent Chinese bank was on the verge of collapse under the weight of its bad loans, only this time the failure was far less quiet, as depositors of the rural lender swarmed the bank's retail outlets, demanding their money in an angry demonstration of what Beijing is terrified of the most: a bank run. "

1.4T yuan = 198928800000.00 dollars ~199 Billion US $

 

[RicInOR]

"Our business is at an inflection point."

uh oh - the Beer Business.

"Beermakers, as a whole, are suffering from declining demand in North America in the last several years. Industry tracker IWSR said alcohol sales volumes have dropped since 2017. "


Perhaps due to alternatives like Pot and Mead etc?

Is beer a leading indicator? It would seem to be to be a contra indicator - you have money, you choose other options. When you loose your job, you drink beer? What do I know.

 

[CountryGent]

I love the quote from Warren Buffet: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

Not surprising because those are primary movers in our primate brains.

 

[partsed]

Lol...yes. Although I think the actual lowest close in 2008 was something like $1.25 a share. Ford is part of my 12 stock portfolio core.

However by the end of 2009 Ford has risen to $10 a share and by the end of 2011 risen to $16.79 a share. I guarantee that there were people who made a crap ton of money on Ford when everyone else panicked.

Ford also currently has a 6% dividend yield .

It is frustrating as HE-double toothpicks that Ford stock is so low and yet GM stock is $37.16 a share.

 

[nehalemguy]

It is frustrating as HE-double toothpicks that Ford stock is so low and yet GM stock is $37.16 a share.

Ford pays a 6% dividend yield. GM pays 4.5% and still owes taxpayers 12 billion from the auto bailout.

Besides.......I wouldn't be caught dead driving a Chevy.

-E-

 

[The Heretic]

All our beans are in rental housing. We have 13 units and zero debt. I rode out 08, recouped my losses and then some, and have used that cash to pay of what little debt we had. No diversification here, but the first of every month is payday. Being a landlord can be a pain in the arse, and I'm not sure how many remodels I have left in me at 72, but I'll tip over trying.

Being a landlord is probably ok while the economy is good, but if it gets really bad, you may find your tenants either can't pay, can't pay in full, wind up evicted, leave for somewhere with jobs and so on. Then you are stuck with at least property taxes on properties that are devalued, not to mention some utilities (to keep them from degrading) and other upkeep.

Now if a landlord has a surplus of cash to weather such downturns, then that is good, but those things are a sunk cost. It isn't like the $ put into property taxes/etc. will come back later - although the property will usually devalue. And as you get older upkeep becomes increasingly hard. I rented from a landlord who in his 80s gave up and sold to a much younger landlord - having to sell at a time when the property may be devalued is not ideal.

Just saying.

Besides, after having to help out my parents fix up a few rentals after renters trashed them, and seeing how they had to deal with deadbeats and evictions and so on, I quickly decided I never wanted to be a landlord.

YMMV

 

[USMC1911]

Being a landlord is probably ok while the economy is good, but if it gets really bad, you may find your tenants either can't pay, can't pay in full, wind up evicted, leave for somewhere with jobs and so on. Then you are stuck with at least property taxes on properties that are devalued, not to mention some utilities (to keep them from degrading) and other upkeep.

Now if a landlord has a surplus of cash to weather such downturns, then that is good, but those things are a sunk cost. It isn't like the $ put into property taxes/etc. will come back later - although the property will usually devalue. And as you get older upkeep becomes increasingly hard. I rented from a landlord who in his 80s gave up and sold to a much younger landlord - having to sell at a time when the property may be devalued is not ideal.

Just saying.

Besides, after having to help out my parents fix up a few rentals after renters trashed them, and seeing how they had to deal with deadbeats and evictions and so on, I quickly decided I never wanted to be a landlord.

YMMV

Not all properties are the same. I did not want to be a landlord for housing so instead got into comercial property. After almost 10 years it has been amazing. Businesses tend to take great care of the property's. Rentable industrial property is very very hard to come by in north Portland so finding quality tenants has been very very easy. Last tenants to move out were last year and one of the businesses that was already leasing leased the additional space. All of the tenants pay triple net so no taxes or insurance out of my pocket. It really has been a life changing investment.

 

[The Heretic]

Talked to my financial planner today.

He was saying there is a high likelihood there will be a recession, maybe next year, maybe the year after, but there will be a recession.

So we agreed to pull back from my 80/20 equity holdings to 50/50 and in safer investments. Then when the market bottoms out I can jump back in.

We'll see.

I looked at my average appreciation over the past 8 years and it has been 6.4%, which is close to the 7% needed to double my principal every ten years.

 

[RicInOR]

Top 10 Hottest Stocks Since 2000: What if You had Invested $100?

See how much money you’d have today if you invested $100 in these stocks 20 years ago

howmuch.net

Imagine you really did invest $100, what would it be worth today?

Only company on the list, I would have considered then, Apple.

Three of them I have never heard of.

 

[RicInOR]

This Red Alert Is Now Flashing on the Bond Trader’s Radar Screen

(Bloomberg) -- A bond-market warning light that glowed green for years is suddenly flashing red. The bad news for bondholders is that the last time this happened, it was accompanied by the biggest sell-off since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.That indicator is the term premium...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[revjen45]

"When I was starting out, when I needed tires, I would wait until Sunday and go rummage around in the pile of used tires..."

Yup. BTDT.