Operation Blood in the Streets

[CoastRange57]

More or less right there. Retirement accounts are full steam ahead, because we have time. Taxed portfolio we've, after paying off the house, pulled back to safe investments and savings. Next major purchase is a full-sized truck; after that is done and the market finally corrects, going to buy up the deals on the stock market. I'm at least mildly surprised it hasn't corrected yet, but it will eventually.

Despite what the media try's to do to the market, it still is reacting to a positive political situation in the US. The contrary bunch wants the market to drop so they can bottom fish. Not a bad idea, but the markets performance is not supporting that right now. They are plenty of people holding cash that would bottom fish, I might a bit on my taxed accounts. We made some major changes this last 2 years in our living situation that will put us back in the market hard in the next 4 to 6 months.

We had a 70% equity position on our home and property in Western Oregon, but due to my divorce over 30 years ago, and a business failure in 2009, a life threatening illness in 2011, we did not get the mortgage paid off. Not wanting to pay a mortgage anymore as I entered my sixties and the wife want to go part time, we adjusted. We fixed the property up with some investment money, and sold it. We had two acres in Central Oregon that we bought for cash in 16-17 time frame. We are developing the property, our manufactured home arrives next Wednesday and hopefully we are in by late November.

No mortgage, paying cash for everything. Lower cost of living over all here. We too are frugal people, we drive used paid for car and truck in good condition. We will both now work another 3 to 4 years part time, rebuild the IRAs up a bit more and the Roths and when those hit a certain point we can pull the plug and fully retire.

We are holding a mixed bag of equities, Apple, Facebook, Disney, Costco. We have it with Edward Jones and they have produced an average of 10.6% for us the last three years. I have some taxable money with AmeriTrade that I play with a bit on some former employers business's. I can live with that rate, just keep adding and doing well, and the minute that return on interest is $ 50,000 grand a year, that is a done deal at that point.

I have been taking some out an buying some bare dirt properties, just to get some money out of the market. My rationale there was that in 2016 some of these "semi developed" properties ( water and electricity at the road) were very good values. They were all one to 2 acre properties in Central Oregon Redmond Prineville areas. We sold some stocks and bought several of these properties.

Those properties have appreciated 40% now, so we are holding them for income over the next 15 years. They will sell when we put them on the market , but I intend to hold them and not sell any of them for at least 5 years, and then about one every other year or so for income.

Made a good decision there for a change. I feel a little bit more in control there than watching the market every day. which I still do of course.

 

[The Heretic]

I don't think the contrarians are wanting a huge drop. Most of the people who play the market want short term volatility - that is how they make their money in the short term; quick sells and buys - the faster the better. So much so that they pay extra for faster trades - as in the microseconds.

That is why we see it go down one day by fractions of a percent to one percent and up the next day by about the same amount.

Sure some are holding or getting into cash - more so than before. If you have a significant amount it might pay off.

That is why I hang on because I can't play that game. I play the long game instead. At the same time, I play the averages, not the bets.

Looking back, my net worth now is about ten times what it was a decade ago. It kind of amazes me and makes me kick myself for not starting sooner (especially since I would have been so much better off sooner than I am now - doubly so, now that my health isn't what it was 20 years ago).

Part of that is putting the max every year into a 401K for most of that decade, part of it was buying my first home 7 years ago and making extra mortgage payments since then. Both were, and are, good investments - but require a person to be able to pay into them and to be able to play the long game.

Those who are living paycheck to paycheck can't do this without help - many can't do it with help. You can't put $25K a year into a 401K and/or $25K a year into a mortgage (not to mention saving up for 20% down) if you can barely pay for rent and groceries, more so if you are paying 19% interest on $16K in credit card debt (both, the US average).

 

[revjen45]

"Then I would take it home and pry it on to a wheel with a long screwdriver, then take that to a local gas station to pump it up (back in the days when air was free).
I remember spending 4 days in November in Lk Stevens WA (cold and wet) replacing the injector pump on a Chevy diesel pickup to save about $450. Given that I couldn't close the door there was no way to be dry or even tepid. Still gives me chills.
Does anybody need an injector socket for a Chevy diesel? I'll let it go cheap.

 

[CountryGent]

I don't think the contrarians are wanting a huge drop.

I know I don't. It would have catastrophic effects on our economy and society. That said, we've been experiencing the longest bull market run in history. While that has been great, sometime it has to come to an end. When? Who knows.

 

[The Heretic]

I know I don't. It would have catastrophic effects on our economy and society. That said, we've been experiencing the longest bull market run in history. While that has been great, sometime it has to come to an end. When? Who knows.

Yes, and that makes me a bit nervous, especially with the talk of a recession next year or "soon". We'll see.

OTOH, I am playing the long game, and "the plan" is to not touch my retirement funds anytime soon (the plan is that they are for my daughter who is not retirement age) - so since the economy cycles, I can wait for ten more years if needed. OTOH, when I get to 70.5, I have to take RMDs so I will have to roll them out to something. That is about 4.5 years from now so...

Again, we'll see. These things usually don't happen right when people say they will - they usually take longer (definitely the case with the housing bubble which was predicted years before it actually happened). Been thru this cycle several times - the dot com crunch in 2001, then the 2008 recession - each time the economy came back. Some people are saying there may be a plateau or 'slow down' (of growth) next year, but not necessarily a recession.

I may get stuck where I am at next year or the year after if the value of my property drops - again, we'll see. It has appreciated about 4% since last year, which more than pays for the interest and property tax, the principal payments paying for themselves. Real estate seems to have slowed down, but as long as it doesn't drop drastically then I am good - I already pulled significant value from the property with the timber sale (mostly spent though - much of it for dental/medical and transport).

Next year will be interesting. The election and the economy. For me, possible retirement (if things go according to plan), almost certainly at least semi-retirement (cutting my hours back by 20%).

I am thinking I will go ahead and start taking SSI benefits when I reach full retirement age, whether I am working or not. I could use the extra cash, and it will all be the same in the long run, plus I doubt I will live past 84 anyway - quite possibly not make it that far, not with my health and my family history - so waiting longer to start doesn't make sense for me.

Lots of variables. I am letting the new blood on my team take over the design and implementation of the projects - they will have to live with the outcome, not me - so that has reduced the stress. Also, they are learning and absorbing the domain knowledge, which is what I am contributing to the project now. The main project is supposed to complete about the time I want to retire, and my bosses know that. So if there is a cutback and the projects keep on schedule, I may be one of the people let go, or on the short list for being let go.

That (my job) is just one of the variables - there is also my kids and their finances, and real estate values, and the economy in general.

Got to be flexible and roll with the punches. I may not have a job this time next year, or I may decide to work another 6 months to a year. It will depend on the timing and what happens.

 

[ZigZagZeke]

I put $7500 into Apple stock in 2003 at $15. That got me 500 shares. Since that time it has split twice, once 2:1, and another time at 7:1. That's 7000 shares. Currently, Apple is a little over $200 per share. I've ridden out a lot of negative news, including the 2008 recession. I don't tend to sell on cyclical speculation.

Update: Apple is now at $245 per share.

 

[GWS]

I recommend having cash on hand. It will always be handy for buying power if/when plastic is no longer accepted. It will still be valuable at least at the start of a slide.

 

[The Heretic]

I recommend having cash on hand. It will always be handy for buying power if/when plastic is no longer accepted. It will still be valuable at least at the start of a slide.

I usually have some cash on hand and quite a bit more in my checking account - enough for a year's worth of living expenses, including mortgage payments. Less than that and I start to get nervous. Stuff happens - regularly. People get sick or injured. Things break or wear out.

All of my bills except my current CC balance, and car insurance, are paid automatically from my checking account - just the mortgage, internet, TV and electricity are the only constant bills I have and they get paid automatically. The rest is food, gas and incidentals - if something happens to the banking system then I have enough food, fuel and water to tide me over, plus a roof over my head. If the banking system goes down then my mortgage disappears with it (at least until banking comes back).

 

[ma96782]

The last few weeks have been a let down for me.

Thinking, that a bird in hand, was worth more than a bird in the bush......I sold INTC and AMD before the earnings announcements. LOL.....Yup, I missed the BIG moves upwards. Oh well. At least I kept HON.

Aloha, Mark

 

[nehalemguy]

The last few weeks have been a let down for me.

Thinking, that a bird in hand, was worth more than a bird in the bush......I sold INTC and AMD before the earnings announcements. LOL.....Yup, I missed the BIG moves upwards. Oh well. At least I kept HON.

Aloha, Mark

Ouch.........Intel was up 8.2% yesterday.


E

 

[ma96782]

Yup....

And Oct 29 is fast approaching (AMD's earnings announcement day). On friday, it was up over 3% on the INTC news.

Aloha, Mark

 

[The Heretic]

Read some articles on the possibility of a recession last night. Most talk about just one or two indicators - usually some model, and not a whole lot about the big picture. Came across one article that did talk about the big picture, including the aspect of multiple bubbles - I will share a link when I finish the article - but it has me a bit worried now.

While I am in it for the long haul, OTOH the next year or two are a bit of a risk for me and it might be worth it to take a hit in possible appreciation of my investments to have my funds in safer low risk low earning investments that can be then used to make purchases of equities if the bottom falls out of the stock market, and then move forward from there.

Ditto with selling my property; it may be better to sell soon while the real estate market is stable than to wait for a possible bubble to burst and buyers to evaporate because they don't have or want to risk the funds to buy property. Then to have funds on hand to buy property at a low market value would be good.

Timing would be iffy though. The last time I pulled back from the market, it surged ahead instead.

 

[Member 5605]

Honestly, I'm less concerned with a market correction than I am with the .Gov forcibly taking 401k's in the name of "retirement assurance".

Household 401's have tripled in the last four years which should give me a sign of what's coming. At least it's being managed by a company that's been around forever (since late 1800's).

 

[USMC1911]

Read some articles on the possibility of a recession last night. Most talk about just one or two indicators - usually some model, and not a whole lot about the big picture. Came across one article that did talk about the big picture, including the aspect of multiple bubbles - I will share a link when I finish the article - but it has me a bit worried now.

While I am in it for the long haul, OTOH the next year or two are a bit of a risk for me and it might be worth it to take a hit in possible appreciation of my investments to have my funds in safer low risk low earning investments that can be then used to make purchases of equities if the bottom falls out of the stock market, and then move forward from there.

Ditto with selling my property; it may be better to sell soon while the real estate market is stable than to wait for a possible bubble to burst and buyers to evaporate because they don't have or want to risk the funds to buy property. Then to have funds on hand to buy property at a low market value would be good.

Timing would be iffy though. The last time I pulled back from the market, it surged ahead instead.

If I was in your shoes and was as close to retirement age as you are not a chance in hell I would be heavy in the equity market. I would be looking to get into lower risk positions.

 

[CountryGent]

If I was in your shoes and was as close to retirement age as you are not a chance in hell I would be heavy in the equity market. I would be looking to get into lower risk positions.

Agreed. If I was close to retirement, and I'm not, I wouldn't be heavily in equities.

 

[The Heretic]

If I was in your shoes and was as close to retirement age as you are not a chance in hell I would be heavy in the equity market. I would be looking to get into lower risk positions.

Well, if I didn't say it before (I think I did, earlier in the thread), I don't plan to need or use my retirement funds for my retirement, at least not much and not early on. Those funds are hopefully for my daughter.

That said, they are not quite where I want them to be at this stage of the game, and things can happen the first year or so where I may need some portion of them. THings don't always go as planned and I may want/need some portion of them to buy the land I want without a mortgage (or with a small mortgage).

I have three different accounts; a conventional IRA, a Roth IRA and a 401K. I may want to use the Roth IRA to make up the difference between what I get in equity from my property and what I need to get the land I want (with some kind of living quarters). Also, if I have to take out a mortgage, I will probably want/need to still have a job. So timing and money may be tight - I don't want to be liquidating those funds when the market is down.

I will just have to see how things play out. If the market drops suddenly, I may want to keep working (if possible) and hang onto my current property until it starts to come back. Meanwhile, I am going to start SSI in about 9 months whether I am working or not.

 

[USMC1911]

When do you need to take mandatory withdrawals from your ira?

 

[ma96782]

From: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plan...-topics-required-minimum-distributions-rmds

You cannot keep retirement funds in your account indefinitely. You generally have to start taking withdrawals from your IRA, SIMPLE IRA, SEP IRA, or retirement plan account when you reach age 70½. Roth IRAs do not require withdrawals until after the death of the owner.

Aloha, Mark

 

[ZigZagZeke]

I can tell the options guys are getting nervous about the price of Apple, and them losing their shirts if it closes anywhere near where it is now on the next options expiry on Nov 15th. The drumbeat of negative news is growing loud. It's a regular occurrence when things get this out of hand. A month ago the "smart money" thought Apple had peaked and they sold lots of calls, expecting Apple's price to go down, not up, and now it's up a bunch. This "news" cycle is damage control. Jim Cramer admits that it's done all the time.

 

[CountryGent]

And us vultures are poised to swoop in. (teehee)