Stock market on fire

[sobo]

Worse imo.

I was trying to be upbeat...

 

[The Heretic]

take it from me; trying to time the market sucks

 

[bolus]

U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases

The Fed’s rate increases so far this year would reduce poor countries’ economic output by $360 billion over three years, and that further policy tightening would do additional harm, a U.N. agency warns.

www.wsj.com

It does not really matter what the article says since this is why the UN is asking the Fed to decide

1. Raise interest rates to get out of control inflation under control
2. Lower interest rates and save the overleveraged markets.

which do you think is going to happen? Save us, the little people or save the banks?

Its either time to invest in guillotine stocks or start saving for $100 a gallon milk.

 

[ma96782]

Elon Musk has changed his mind and word is that he'll buy Twitter at $54.20 a share. Trading on Twitter has been halted.

Aloha, Mark

PS.......UPDATE.....Trading in Twitter resumed about 15 mins prior to the close of the market. 10-04-22

 

[Provincial]

Elon Musk has changed his mind and word is that he'll buy Twitter at $54.20 a share. Trading on Twitter has been halted.

Aloha, Mark

PS.......UPDATE.....Trading in Twitter resumed about 15 mins prior to the close of the market. 10-04-22

Musk has sprung the trap! (I hope)

 

[bolus]

You know how I like to say the entire market is fraudulant? How about this.

You probably heard that Bernanke got a "nobel prize." I guess bailing out all the banks in 2008 for screwing everyone gets you a prize now.

But was it a real Nobel? No, it was a "The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences"

You know what Sveriges Riksbank is? its a frickin bank. A BANK. Bankers created their own fake Nobel prize to award themselves.

Sveriges riksbank - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Flippin notional rehypothicated naked shorted Nobel prize to give themselves.

Nothing is real.

 

[bolus]

Remember the 10 year Japanese gov bond?. Every time it goes over 0.25 the central bank has to print money to buy more to keep it down. Its still bouncing over .25 quite frequently:



This article is behind a paywall but you dont need to read it, just the title. No one is buying them. The only one buying government bonds is the central bank. Central banks are going from buyers of last resort to buyers of only resort.

Japan Bond Market Sets Record for No Trades

Trading of the benchmark 10-year bond dries up for four straight sessions as the central bank keeps tight control of yields.

www.wsj.com

Same thing as what is happening in England with their government bonds and pensions.

"Teetering" is a good word to use right now...

 

[Provincial]

Uncommonly low interest rates was all that was keeping free-spending governments afloat. Now that rates are floating upwards toward traditional levels (and probably far beyond) it will force them to take money from other areas or (more likely) just print even more worthless currency. If they choose the latter, it just speeds up the death-spiral of the currency. If they choose to divert other funds, there will be backlash from those dependent on that money. There is no good option.

Although it seems that a collapse should be near, it never surprises me that things just keep going on, like a zombie shambling down the street, dripping corruption as it moves along.

 

[bolus]

Uncommonly low interest rates was all that was keeping free-spending governments afloat. Now that rates are floating upwards toward traditional levels (and probably far beyond) it will force them to take money from other areas or (more likely) just print even more worthless currency. If they choose the latter, it just speeds up the death-spiral of the currency. If they choose to divert other funds, there will be backlash from those dependent on that money. There is no good option.

Although it seems that a collapse should be near, it never surprises me that things just keep going on, like a zombie shambling down the street, dripping corruption as it moves along.

I was looking at the FTD (failed to deliver) report the SEC publishes. One of the stocks had around 250 million shares FTD'd and the stock price has been driven into the ground and is something like $0.004 per share now.

This is very clearly "cellar boxing" level of manipulation which is a form of illegal naked shorting specifically used to kill companies so that their shorts never expire and then after the company is dead they dont have to pay taxes on any of their profits.

I am an extremely amateur market observer and I can see the crime clear as day on the report the SEC itself is publishing. 250 million shares left unaccounted for just one company.

and it is right in the law that this is illegal:

(C)A registered clearing agency may summarily suspend and close the accounts of a participant who (i) has been and is expelled or suspended from any self-regulatory organization, (ii) is in default of any delivery of funds or securities to the clearing agency, or (iii) is in such financial or operating difficulty that the clearing agency determines and so notifies the appropriate regulatory agency for such participant that such suspension and closing of accounts are necessary for the protection of the clearing agency, its participants, creditors, or investors.

15 U.S. Code § 78q–1 - National system for clearance and settlement of securities transactions

www.law.cornell.edu

The SEC is publishing the crime twice a month and somehow this "zombie" like you said keeps going.

 

[bolus]

So what's the good news today?

Wow, look at that rally. Rally on the higher than expected inflation news. makes perfect sense to me because inflation is transitory

I wonder if it is because of the worst bond sell off in in 70 years? makes sense too since who wants a government bond making 3% when inflation is 8.4%?

Bond sell-off worst since 1949, Bank of America says

Global government bond losses are on course for the worst year since 1949 and investor sentiment has plummeted to its lowest since the financial crisis, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday.

www.reuters.com

If wonder if we have to worry at all about the feds printing money to prop up municipal bonds I mentioned a while back?

Stock market on fire

www.northwestfirearms.com

You know, because the bond market is 2.5 times the size of the stock market and when bond markets crash governments fail.

But probably nothing. how about that rally!

side note, another nice graph I saw today.
This is the M2 velocity. This is the rate at which 1 unit of cash is used to buy goods and services.



so everyone needs to do their part to fix this inflation and economy. First Powell says to get laid off. Second, start spending more. simple.

 

[Provincial]

"so everyone needs to do their part to fix this inflation and economy. First Powell says to get laid off. Second, start spending more. simple."

"Let them eat cake!" (comment from a great French economist, Marie Antioinette)

"Move closer to where you work" (comment from another great French economist, Emmanuel Macron)

Do we see a trend here?

 

[bolus]

Bah, I got to get to work but this is just too juicy.

So the entire market is fraudulant. Plent of evidence for that. Its a casino where the CEO also runs the Nevada Game commission at the same time making their own rules which they break all the time. Conflict of interest and legal methods to rip everyone off like payment for orderflow inveted by Maddoff himself.

So when you buy shares of a company at a broker you have "beneficially owned shares." Your name does not go on record as the share owner, the broker's name stays on it and you enter an agreement with the broker that you benefit from what the share does. But they still own it and do what ever they want with it like loan it out for shorting to make your investment go down in value. Now you may say "this only happens on a margin account" but the brokers still do it and have gotten caught over and over and over lying about this. Here is the basic structure:


"Registered shares" in purple are like the old fashion printed on real paper stock certificates. Now they are electronic shares held at transfer agents with your name on them, not the broker.



Now a while back TNI Biotech did a spinoff and dividend but not in the traditional accepted way. The process is complicated and did not matter. What matters is the published the letter Schwab sent them telling them that if they asked for a list of all the beneficially owned shares, they would break the entire frauduant crime system.

TNI BioTech, Inc. Corporation's CEO Issues Letter to Shareholders Discussing Cytocom Dividend

/PRNewswire/ -- TNI BioTech, Inc. (OTC-BB: TNIB) ("we" or the "Company"), a biotechnology company pioneering the manufacturing both US and Internationally as...

www.prnewswire.com

The email is published above but the crime in their own words most inportant part:

Because TNI has elected to conduct a spin-off in a way that is the antithesis of how normal spin-offs operate, you will be creating an unintended consequence to the financial market that I think you may not have thought of. Regardless of any manner you make the requirement of DTCC Participants to hand over their beneficial holder names – whether via transfer and surrender or providing a list, the impact to trading is significant. Let me explain and give you a for instance. If a DTCC Participant presents to your transfer agent a list for an amount of shares that exceeds their DTCC record date position, what will you do? If for example, the transfer agent goes back to the DTCC Participant and asks where are the remaining shares, the DTCC Participant's likely response will be they are owed to them by another DTCC Participant who has failed to deliver by the record date. Therefore, the client bought the shares for settlement through the record date and is a legitimate and rightful record date holder, but the client's broker-dealer or custodian does not have the shares in their DTCC account because the Seller of the shares have failed to make delivery by record date. Fails are common occurrence in our industry. Another circumstance may be that the DTCC Participant who presents you with the list has previously Loaned shares to another Participant and the Borrower cannot return the shares. In either of these scenarios, it may be very problematic to say who has the shares in their DTCC account because the shares are owed to them by let's say Merrill Lynch, Merrill may be owed the shares by UBS who are owed the shares by JP Morgan and so on and so on. You don't know how far down the rabbit hole goes.

They explained and admitted to the entire fraud that is the market. So juicy.

So in summary, when you buy shares at a broker you dont own them, the broker still treats them as theirs, will use them against you to steal from you. This is everything - your portfolio, your pension, your 401K, your kids college fund. Everything.

 

[ma96782]

Thinking of Crypto Investing?

Yeah.......could happen with any investment?

Aloha, Mark

 

[bolus]

I was just pondering why my house is up 150% in value for no reason and noticed that the Fed just bought $203 billion more in Mortgage backed securities 5 days ago bringing it up to a cool $2.9 trillion.

FRB: H.4.1 Release-- Factors Affecting Reserve Balances -- Thursday, October 13, 2022

9 lines down in the first table (in millions)

Mortgage-backed securities4​

2,698,158​

+ 203,405​

Why again is the Fed propping up the housing market with printed money? Did the housing market need to be propped up?

By the way, these guys have calculated that the Fed is insolvent so it probably does not matter

Estimating Downside Market Risk

Value is not measured by how far prices have declined, but by the relationship between prices and properly discounted cash flows. When the cash flows are very long-term in nature, and the deviation from median historical valuations is extreme, simply attaining those run-of-the-mill valuation...

www.hussmanfunds.com

if you zoom in on this graph at the right you'll notice the estimated value of fed holdings in excess of cost is a negative number.

 

[bolus]

"The 10-2 Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 2 year treasury rate. A 10-2 treasury spread that approaches 0 signifies a "flattening" yield curve. A negative 10-2 yield spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period. A negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018, but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring, and is thus seen as a far-leading indicator. "

 

[ma96782]

Nov. 2, 2022
As expected......the Fed raised rates up 0.75%.

DOW jumped up 300 pts. Where it will end today?

Aloha, Mark

PS.....It's just past closing time for today. The DOW is now down 506 pts.

BUT, But, but.....wait.

Fed hikes interest rates 75 basis points again, Powell says 'very premature' to talk about pause

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by 75 basis points for the fourth straight meeting while hinting at a potential slower pace in the future — and then Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central banks commitment to tame multi-decade highs in inflation.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Soli]

Since I don't trade equities I don't really care what it does today per se.

I thought the Fed would give in by now; increasing the rate will have a great effect on refinancing our trillions of outstanding debt. "Inflating our way out of debt" works. It also destroys a currency. That doesn't seem to be in the cards. Again, I thought it would be.

Doubling the 10, 20, and 30 year rate will not seriously affect the budget (ie, increase the amount the fed gov pays in interest) for a decade and longer. With the Fed apparently serious about inflation I now think we'll see a "shock and awe" campaign. This is something overlooked from the 70s; the Fed bubblegumed around w/ rates trying to tame inflation slowly and deliberately for years. And it didn't work. Led to entrenched inflation that peaked way over 10%.

So shock and awe. Crush it fast with overwhelming force. Note that there will be collateral damage...

Note also that the high rates didn't last in relative terms. Within 2 years of hitting the high (19%) it had dropped by about half to 9%. It bounced around for the rest of the 80s, but started the trend lower. Which lasted for decades. And in those decades those 19% ten year bonds were paid off. If the s&a this time crushes everything with a terminal rate of 6-8% with the same dynamics then we'd settle down to long term rates of 3-4%. In line with historical rates.

Anyway my thoughts. lol I'm often wrong.

 

[slimmer13]

Nevermind

 

[The Heretic]

World's richest man decides to set $44 billion on fire

 

[Provincial]

World's richest man decides to set $44 billion on fire

Very little of which is his own, nor which he is committed to pay back personally.

That is one reason he is so rich.