Stock market on fire

[The Heretic]

Be prepared for 1,000-point Dow selloff before the presidential election: strategist

Investors should get used to more wild swings in the markets ahead of the presidential election.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

that $600/week boost to unemployment plus PPP loans to payrolls which kept people buying things for the past 6 months ran out.

And it is looking less and less like anything will replace it and/or that there will be another stimulus check.

 

[The Heretic]

Even OPEC is panicking

Oil prices are collapsing after Saudi Arabia sends ominous signal

Demand fears are once again rippling through the oil patch.

www.cnn.com

 

[The Heretic]

So, I figure the market has gone down 7% in three weeks?

Not as fast or as far as Feb where it went down twice as far in one week, but so far still going down overall.

 

[USMC1911]

I did pretty well today as I have been short on NKLA from the day GM announced the partnership. Closed out most of my put options as some were up well over 500%. Boeing dumped even more today so glad I cut even more of my holding last week. Looks like a ruff patch were in.

 

[The Heretic]

At first I was a bit worried that I got out of the market too soon, maybe even altogether wrong.

But I guess I got lucky with the timing.

Not down enough for me to jump back in, but I don't feel bad that I cashed out now - at worst I may miss some earnings, but right now I am better off than if I had stuck it out. If the market responds the way I thought it would - CV-19 worries, economy and unemployment worries, election worries - then I may benefit later this year.

The question for me now is whether I should wait until after the election to jump back in, or jump in before the election?

 

[DeanfromOregon]

At first I was a bit worried that I got out of the market too soon, maybe even altogether wrong.

But I guess I got lucky with the timing.

Not down enough for me to jump back in, but I don't feel bad that I cashed out now - at worst I may miss some earnings, but right now I am better off than if I had stuck it out. If the market responds the way I thought it would - CV-19 worries, economy and unemployment worries, election worries - then I may benefit later this year.

The question for me now is whether I should wait until after the election to jump back in, or jump in before the election?

It's going to be a roller coaster until after the election.

 

[The Heretic]

It's going to be a roller coaster until after the election.

Yes - but - will it rebound strongly right after the election regardless of who gets elected?

 

[USMC1911]

At first I was a bit worried that I got out of the market too soon, maybe even altogether wrong.

But I guess I got lucky with the timing.

Not down enough for me to jump back in, but I don't feel bad that I cashed out now - at worst I may miss some earnings, but right now I am better off than if I had stuck it out. If the market responds the way I thought it would - CV-19 worries, economy and unemployment worries, election worries - then I may benefit later this year.

The question for me now is whether I should wait until after the election to jump back in, or jump in before the election?

I think you did great! I wish I would of dumped my Boeing sooner. I think people better strap in as the ride is going to be very bumpy. Look at today. Sold off hard for most of the segements but stay at home tickers like Zoom, Chegg ect did well.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

Yes - but - will it rebound strongly right after the election regardless of who gets elected?

I would say no, the market seems to love Trump. The market does not love $4T tax increases. A big variable is which way the houses of Congress go. The market's rebounded pretty strongly so far, IIRC it was down under 19k for a minute a few months back. My thought is what's going on now is just profit taking.

 

[The Heretic]

My thought is what's going on now is just profit taking.

Could be, but my impression is that profit taking lasts for a day or two, maybe a week, not three weeks.

The market did bounce a little at the end of the day today, but that is not unusual - people buying the dip on the supposition that the market might rebound - but still down 600 points from the previous close.

My thinking is that this is either a correction that is bottoming out, or there is farther for it to go down. I cashed out close to the high so I am not losing anything. I am about 80% cash, 10%+ bonds and 10% or less stocks. So far I am about the same place value wise I was at the beginning of the month.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

You are in a great spot. A friend of mine who is mid 70's cashed out $2MM or so last November, we all told him how crazy he was. lol!

Interesting times we live in now, the old rules I've come to know and understand seemingly do not apply.

 

[CoastRange57]

Yes - but - will it rebound strongly right after the election regardless of who gets elected?

No.If Trump gets reelected the market will jump. If Harris gets elected the market will sh*t like it did when Obama was elected.

 

[CoastRange57]

My thought is what's going on now is just profit taking.

That is what the market t is all about on a daily basis. There was some kind of trigger move today the allowed all the usual suspects ( shorts, sharks, institutions) preset algorithmic trading parameters to go to work and move billions around and score millions in profits. Expect this to happen at least once more, maybe twice between now and election day.

 

[arakboss]

Another dumpster fire day in the market today. We might be able to indirectly blame this partly on RBG's passing. This could be a rough few months ahead. I am going to dollar cost average in to the weakness:

Stock sell-off accelerates and is expected to get worse before it gets better

Stock investors focused on new worries about the coronavirus and economy, selling into a market Monday that was already technically shaken and set for further declines

www.cnbc.com

 

[The Heretic]

 

[The Heretic]

Weekly jobless claims rise unexpectedly as stimulus boost fades

Initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected as the labor market continues its sluggish recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

I think this is the job market bottoming out - i.e., hiring flattening/plateauing/slowing. I don't think it will get much better (if any) before next year.

 

[Bob D]

Heretic, I just want to say that I enjoy your commentary and low-key market analysis.

 

[The Heretic]

Heretic, I just want to say that I enjoy your commentary and low-key market analysis.

Not much analysis on my part - just some gut feeling based on how I think people will respond to current events and looking at the trends.

I've read some in depth analytical articles on the stock market - they seem to have a lot of theories based on charts and data and history, etc. - not sure how valid any of it is.

While I realize there is all kinds of algorithmic trading going on, it seems to me that at least as much of the trading is simply knee jerk responses to daily news, like unemployment, politics and so on - i.e., emotional responses - probably even in the algorithms (some of which I am given to understand responds to news articles).

 

[The Heretic]

An 'ominous’ report reminds us the U.S. economy is far from OK: Morning Brief

Top news and what to watch in the markets on Friday, September 25, 2020.

finance.yahoo.com