Stock market on fire

[The Heretic]

So far the "correction" of September seems to be sticking. Yesterday there was a bit of a bounce up, but today it dropped again. On average it seems that this may be the upper level with some volatility.

Still not enough for me to jump back in, but I am better off in cash than if I had stuck with it or jumped back in. We'll see what happens in the next quarter and during the election. I don't think it will get better until after the first of the year, and we have yet to see what happens when we have more CV-19 cases due to schools/biz reopening, and due to stimulus on hold.

 

[CoastRange57]

Once I knew what my Apple split was going to yield, I quit day trading for the year. I am up over 35% for the year so I call that a good year. Put a couple of rural residential bare dirt properties up for sale. I will hold the notes on them to avoid the capital gains azz jabbing.

Couple of small projects around the house and then some fly fishing and golf.

 

[USMC1911]

Sounds like a great plan! My gains are not quite as good as my Boeing play was not so great. Killing it the last few weeks with options though. Sitting just under 30% and doing LOTS of work on my rentals. Taxes are lame and got nailed for almost $5000 in quarterly a couple weeks ago.

 

[The Heretic]

Slower U.S. job gains anticipated; permanent unemployment in focus

U.S. job growth likely slowed further in September as the recovery from the COVID-19 slump shifts into lower gear amid diminishing government money and a relentless pandemic, leaving many at the risk of being permanently unemployed.

www.nasdaq.com

 

[Provincial]

The S&P 500 is up over 16% from this date last year. The Dow has a smaller increase, but still positive. All despite the COVID crisis. Someone must see a silver lining.

 

[arakboss]

Looks like one of probably many market dips coming tommorrow.

US futures and global markets rattled after Trump tests positive for coronavirus

Global markets and US stock futures were roiled on Friday by news that President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have tested positive for coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

I suspect wonky election results wait and battle is going to provide more buying opportunities through end of year.

I think I need to unload some more of my firearms related collections so I can have some more cash to put in the market.

 

[The Heretic]

Nearly 4 million US jobs have vanished forever

There's mounting evidence that the pandemic is dealing a lasting blow to the American economy, with millions of jobs vanishing forever.

www.cnn.com

 

[arakboss]

Nearly 4 million US jobs have vanished forever

There's mounting evidence that the pandemic is dealing a lasting blow to the American economy, with millions of jobs vanishing forever.

www.cnn.com

Yeah but at least we flattened the curve

 

[The Heretic]

Yeah but at least we flattened the curve

The percentage of unemployed Americans classified as permanently unemployed rose to 35.6% in September, up from just 11.1% in April.

 

[arakboss]

The percentage of unemployed Americans classified as permanently unemployed rose to 35.6% in September, up from just 11.1% in April.

I was referring to Covid curve. It was not worth the damage to the economy imho. This damage will be long lasting.

 

[arakboss]

This doesn't sound like positive news for the markets:

Business leaders call for urgent reforms as global economy faces its 'worst state in a century'

Top business leaders say the global economy is facing its worst crisis in a hundred years, and "downside risks remain elevated" unless urgent reforms are enacted during the G-20 summit hosted by Saudi Arabia in November.

www.cnbc.com

 

[The Heretic]

'A devastating experience:' Temporary layoffs just became permanent for millions of American workers

Jennifer Lorincz loved her job as a sales manager for a fabric company, even though it meant traveling across six states from New York to Indiana. But in August, she joined what has become the fastest growing part of the labor market — workers who have permanently lost their job.

www.cnn.com

 

[DeanfromOregon]

In the next year we will convert 4 million waiters into electricians and they'll quadruple their income. With only one job.

 

[The Heretic]

In the next year we will convert 4 million waiters into electricians and they'll quadruple their income. With only one job.

I would like to see that.

I have two degrees - one a EE. I have 25 years experience as a software engineer. I made a 6 digit salary.

It is unlikely will ever get another job, at least not one in the next year or so. The tech industry does not hire 66 year old software engineers. Ten years ago I was 56 and I was soon hired by DTNA who doesn't care how old someone is if they can do the job - but Daimler isn't a tech org. DTNA also hires contractors so that when they want they can let them go very quickly and without fuss - they let go about half their IT staff from what I hear. Maybe in a couple of years they will hire some back, but by then I won't be amenable to working - I am not so amenable now.

A lot of people will just hang on until the economy comes back around and not change careers. When I was their age I went back to college. I also taught myself to write software. During the dot come bust I was without work for two years and got lucky by being hired back by a previous employer.

Whatever these people chose to do, it will take them at least months to get back into the work force, maybe years. Same thing happened during the housing bubble crash, only not as many people - a lot of them never went back to work and it took years for the economy to recover from a hit that wasn't near as deep as we got hit this year.

Eventually all of these "chickens" will come home to roost and the economy will get worse yet. The recovery is already slowing down - eventually it will plateau with unemployment still quite high and GDP low.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

<snip good stuff>
A lot of people will just hang on until the economy comes back around and not change careers. When I was their age I went back to college. I also taught myself to write software. During the dot come bust I was without work for two years and got lucky by being hired back by a previous employer.

It's funny, we have always had people jump into our trade with advanced liberal arts degrees that just cannot stand being stuck in an office and don't want to be a college professor. Women and minorities are grossly underrepresented in the building trades. The State has barriers to entry now that are, in fact, very discriminatory and have turned off generations of people that want to work for a decent wage. The unions lobby heavily for these restrictions to keep the supply of incoming talent low, which in turn keep wages high. This was explained to me, like I was a simpleton, by Jack Roberts, the failed labor commissioner who ratcheted up the apprenticeship rules in the late 90's so he could get the trades endorsement for his run at the govenorship. Didn't work.

Things like a high school diploma and advanced math classes are required, yet you can't be a journeyman unless you pass the test. I say if you pass the test you pass the test, it doesn't matter your background.

As I've looked around at all the SJW's running around I've wondered, legitimately, what I can do to change the world. I'm going to start with apprenticeship in the State of Oregon.

Show some of these cats you can make 80-100k in the trades by just showing up and doing a good job every day for 3-4 years. We start you off at $40k will full bene's and you go up every six months until you journey out. Not a bad gig.

 

[The Heretic]

I used to be a diesel mech, but I quickly realized there were too many backyard mechs who were in the field to be able to make the $ and have the job security I needed. I also realized that eventually I wouldn't be able to physically do the work.

So I got into electronics instead as it seems that much fewer people could grok that.

I started at about $17K as an electronics tech out of college in the mid 80s. That paid my bills back then but then I taught myself to write software. That got me into s/w QA and then got into dev and doubled my salary. Then over the years doubled again. The last 9 years I made about $100K/year and should have been making about $120K (I was lazy in trying to find another job because I was almost ready to retire).

Today, a beginner that is able to show they can do the job, can start at $60-80K.

But even though writing software isn't rocket surgery, it seems a lot of people either just don't grok it, or more likely don't have the persistence and confidence to try to be decent enough at it. I don't know how many people I've had tell me that they can't do it, but they haven't really tried, if at all - they just assume it is too hard.

It took me years to be a professional at it, but those were years when the profession didn't require much, and just being able to make something work was enough. Even today there are a lot of people in the field that I consider to be amateurs, and some clumsy amateurs at that - people who don't want to be better, much less take pride in their work.

*shrug* - I am still somewhat dismayed that more people don't even try to get into my profession. I suppose they are not interested and/or are intimidated by the tech.

I am not that smart and I taught myself. Most everyone has a computer, the software tools to learn are free/downloadable and there are plenty of free tutorials out there. All it takes is time, some persistence and a bit of smarts. The learning curve is steep, but not insurmountable. Once a person gets their foot in the door, if they are diligent, the only way is up.

 

[The Heretic]

BTW - at DTNA I worked with young beginner right out of college. Just before starting there he was going to move out of state and be a waiter or some such thing. He landed a position at DTNA, showed promise and made his way up the ladder over the year or so he was there. I and others mentored him and he learned quickly.

He was laid off the same day I was, but with that experience and skill, last I heard, I think he got a job at eBay shortly after the layoff.

 

[USMC1911]

It's funny, we have always had people jump into our trade with advanced liberal arts degrees that just cannot stand being stuck in an office and don't want to be a college professor. Women and minorities are grossly underrepresented in the building trades. The State has barriers to entry now that are, in fact, very discriminatory and have turned off generations of people that want to work for a decent wage. The unions lobby heavily for these restrictions to keep the supply of incoming talent low, which in turn keep wages high. This was explained to me, like I was a simpleton, by Jack Roberts, the failed labor commissioner who ratcheted up the apprenticeship rules in the late 90's so he could get the trades endorsement for his run at the govenorship. Didn't work.

Things like a high school diploma and advanced math classes are required, yet you can't be a journeyman unless you pass the test. I say if you pass the test you pass the test, it doesn't matter your background.

As I've looked around at all the SJW's running around I've wondered, legitimately, what I can do to change the world. I'm going to start with apprenticeship in the State of Oregon.

Show some of these cats you can make 80-100k in the trades by just showing up and doing a good job every day for 3-4 years. We start you off at $40k will full bene's and you go up every six months until you journey out. Not a bad gig.

Entry level grunt in my trade is $35 and a journeyman tops out at $60ish, foremen $65 and gf at $70. Bennys that make state workers feel cheated. But lots of people don't want to really WORK for that money though. Hell my gf last year did $400k+. Trying right now to talk a dam good kid into giving it a try. He could be making great money day one but would rather try getting a degree and landing that 1 in 1000 easy money lottery ticket job.

 

[DeanfromOregon]

We're half watts lol!

 

[USMC1911]

KV's here brother!