Stock market on fire

[ma96782]

I don't know where you pulled that from since you have no clue about what my business was. But since you seem to know so much about it, why not enlighten us all with your business model of a perfect business that would not be "outdated and/ or not in vogue" and be able to withstand without damage or modifications and maintain perfect profitability through an economic recession as bad as 2008 - 2009 ??

I will take your answer on the air please. I am anxious to try your model out in these economic times, and you should be able to make a sh*t ton of money scaling it.

Did you notice the word "perhaps" and note the question mark at the end of it?

And.....internet and not to mention perhaps your particular business was "out dated and/or not in vogue" with the times?

I don't know what happened to you or your business. Didn't you get that?

Aloha, Mark

 

[The Heretic]

So I am about $10K+ over the highest point earlier in the year (pre-pandemic).

Debating when to go to money market now. Maybe this week. Congress is out of session, won't be back for a couple of weeks.

Economics reports are pretty quiet this week.

Maybe this week is a good time to "cash out" (move from bonds and stocks to money market funds).

 

[USMC1911]

I think we have some time still but still just work your plan. It did what you wanted right? Got you back to where you were and then some? Stick to it. Hardest part is not becoming greedy.

I myself have moved to about 45% or 50% cash. Got my main positions in Boeing, Lamb Research and a couple others that are smaller but gonna scale out over the next several weeks. Might hold on to the Boeing a little longer though. Really did will with September 18th $24 calls in SLV. Made some serious money. Struck out on some other options lottery picks. Might look into some other options this weekend but going to be limited.
Gonna sit on cash and wait for one of two things to happen. Dems win and print (stimulus) money to keep economy rolling or Trump wins and it dumps along with housing. I really would like another comercial rental.

 

[aknate]

I am trying but not finding anything right now in my field. The jobs have got to be there in order to go back to work. I do not want to start a company at my age.

How about you get off your arse and take any job that pay's the bill's????
Or are you still waiting for the CEO position at 7/11 to open up ????
When times are tough you take what you can get for work .
NOT what the Govt. cheese line hand's out.
FFS...….………………………………..

You think that our kid's and grand kid's wont be paying taxes out the rear for this BS?

Obviously you have never actually been down and out or you would take any job that covers your life instead of waiting on our kids and grandkids to pay your way, and not thinking about the future.

Big difference between being a grown up, and a man with pride...…………………………………………………...

 

[The Heretic]

How about you get off your arse and take any job that pay's the bill's????
Or are you still waiting for the CEO position at 7/11 to open up ????
When times are tough you take what you can get for work .
NOT what the Govt. cheese line hand's out.
FFS...….………………………………..

You think that our kid's and grand kid's wont be paying taxes out the rear for this BS?

Obviously you have never actually been down and out or you would take any job that covers your life instead of waiting on our kids and grandkids to pay your way, and not thinking about the future.

Big difference between being a grown up, and a man with pride...…………………………………………………...

I can't speak for JR, but I can say that I have been down and out. When I was young and able, I took any job I could find to try to pay the bills. I have done almost every job out there, including shoveling s**t to grow mushrooms in - most for min wage, back when min wage was about $2.50/hr. Back breaking work. Sometimes dangerous work (choker setter, USCG SAR, etc.).

I can't do any of that kind of work anymore. I can't stand for more than 30-50 minutes. I can't walk long distances. I have a heart/lung condition and high BP and it sometimes affects my vision (to the point I can't see out of one eye sometimes - it has damaged that eye). I can't drive commercially - I wouldn't pass the physical. In short, there are a lot of jobs I simply can't do.

In my chosen profession, orgs don't want to hire 66 year old s/w engineers. Besides the age discrimination (very prevalent in my profession), they know that someone my age will be retiring soon, and they don't want to invest the time and $ to get someone my age up to speed (it takes months and six figure salaries) only to have them retire in a year or less. I am pretty sure that is one reason I got laid off.

So it is easy to say "get out there and take any job", not so easy for some of us to actually do it.

 

[The Heretic]

Just got off the phone with financial guy. Apparently it will take a few days, but by Friday my regular IRA, about 80% of my retirement funds, should be in low cost money market funds. Not perfect timing as tomorrow and Friday look to declining (maybe, maybe not, Thu and Fri are often down days as people take profits and eco reports come in), but it should be enough.

If I can ever get John Hancock to not hangup on me while I am on hold I intend to do the same with my 401K. Leaving my Roth IRA which is 80/20 Bonds/stocks alone - that way I should still have a little in the market, not much.

 

[SquirrelSlayer]

I'm just under a year from retirement (at 62), my 401K is currently:
16.93% in Vanguard Target date 2020 fund
23.49% in Vanguard Target date 2030 fund
59.59% in Vanguard US Growth Fund

I have approximately two years living expenses in cash if I retire now and don't start my pension, approximately four years if I do collect pension and retire now. I've had way too much time these past five months going over numbers and can hardly believe I'm in such a position. I just returned from my first work trip since mid March, it sucked wearing a mask for so many hours. I'm going to stick it out for as long as I can because my employer supported me during this Covid mess and I'd like to get the backlog caught up. My managers know I don't have to work, I've stated publicly during videoconference meetings that "I don't need a JOB, I need a MISSION".

I've seen rough times in my life, minimum wage jobs working in miserable conditions, homelessness, debilitating injuries, a crappy marriage and a very costly divorce. Over the years I've acquired knowledge and skills that have been sought after and fairly compensated. All my work requires travel, some to large cities but most to small to mid sized towns or remote areas. I'm informing the powers that be today that I'm no longer available for the large city assignments other than for emergency recovery of our equipment. Pretty sure they'll accommodate, if not I'm not sticking around much longer.

 

[Dinglenutz]

My wife is filipino, our son is a dual citizen, I've lived in PH for extended periods several times. Last time I was there I lived in a very nice gated suburb with staff to take care of various things, lots of beach and gin tonic time, and 5 minute access to a state of the art hospital.

My monthly budget seldom exceeded $500, often less.

Unless something changes I figure that, as my worst case scenario, moving back isn't terrible.

 

[The Heretic]

Got it locked in - I am in the black for the year.

About 75% is in cash/money market. About 20% is bonds and 5% in the stock market.

So I will just sit and wait it out until at least after the election or the market crashes or next spring (if nothing happens), depending on what happens and when. I think the market is bumping up against a ceiling - more or less.

I was down about $60K at one point, but I got that back and a bit more. I will probably lose some earning opportunity, but as others have said, it pays to not be too greedy, especially when you may need those $ soon.

 

[The Heretic]

Generally (over the years) fall is the ending of a bull market. Winter the market goes down and it is often a good time to buy stocks.

Combine those trends with the realization that the economic recovery not only is slowing and doing poorly, but that 10%+ of the population remains unemployed, that that rate will probably go back up, that some significant percentage of those unemployed are not temporarily unemployed (they won't have a job to go back to - those jobs are gone), that many businesses have closed permanently, that bankruptcies of both businesses and consumers will go up significantly, that people won't be able to make rent/mortgage payments, that consumer spending is down and going down further, that income is down (maybe going down further - certainly after the unemployment benefits run out completely at the end of the year), that we are in a greatest recession in decades - when all this is realized by the populace and investors and the markets - wham, we got more than a "correction", we've got a "crash".

Sorry for the run on sentence. But think about it.

 

[USMC1911]

Generally (over the years) fall is the ending of a bull market. Winter the market goes down and it is often a good time to buy stocks.

Combine those trends with the realization that the economic recovery not only is slowing and doing poorly, but that 10%+ of the population remains unemployed, that that rate will probably go back up, that some significant percentage of those unemployed are not temporarily unemployed (they won't have a job to go back to - those jobs are gone), that many businesses have closed permanently, that bankruptcies of both businesses and consumers will go up significantly, that people won't be able to make rent/mortgage payments, that consumer spending is down and going down further, that income is down (maybe going down further - certainly after the unemployment benefits run out completely at the end of the year), that we are in a greatest recession in decades - when all this is realized by the populace and investors and the markets - wham, we got more than a "correction", we've got a "crash".

Sorry for the run on sentence. But think about it.

If Biden wins the "pandemic" will suddenly disappear. He will be able to claim record number of jobs created. All it will do is push the bubble out some and when it bursts it will be just that much more painful.

 

[The Heretic]

Wham

S&P 500 Index −92.48 (2.58%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average 28,558.49 −542.01 (1.86%)
Nasdaq Composite 11,597.26 −459.19 (3.81%)

Seems to be bouncing on the "floor" though. Maybe profit taking? Minor correction?

 

[The Heretic]

Looks like profit taking combined with a correction.

But we shall see what happens longer term. I doubt it will get better today or Friday though, but the question is whether this is only a correction or whether there will be more of this. IIRC, it took a week for the market to go down 15% back in Feb, then a month to hit the bottom at about 35% down until it bottomed out.

So question is, will this continue, or is this the bottom of this correction?

 

[Boss]

I started an Acorns account for $5 back on March 2 (Should have waited ~3 weeks).

My performance over the past ~6 months has been +18-19%.

Don't expect it's sustainable, but I'll take it for the time being. It's painless and doesn't require much 'management,' really none at the moment.

For those that don't have the healthy doses of liquid capital and/or the desire or time 'manage' a portfolio, Acorns and its competitors are an option worth considering IMHO.

Boss

 

[Medic!]

Looks like profit taking combined with a correction.

But we shall see what happens longer term. I doubt it will get better today or Friday though, but the question is whether this is only a correction or whether there will be more of this. IIRC, it took a week for the market to go down 15% back in Feb, then a month to hit the bottom at about 35% down until it bottomed out.

So question is, will this continue, or is this the bottom of this correction?

Down 978 as of right now.

Job losses were less than a million for the week.
But they changed the way they count.

Would have been worse than last weeks 1M+ if they didn't.

Also too many people on six or more of the government help programs.
More jobs and independence was forcasted.







What?
It's hard times for some out there?

 

[The Heretic]

My thinking was/is that eventually the problems with the recovery/economy will become more apparent as the recovery slows down, bankruptcies increase, unemployment rate flattens out staying in double digits, there is a second (and/or third) round of layoffs, the impact of the expiration of the $600 UI benefit is felt, and so on. Not to mention the GDP, consumer spending and the ripple effects.

The economy and employment market moves slowly in recoveries. We have seen the fast portion of the recovery, now it will slow down, probably flatten out. The pandemic economic recovery is unique in that the it was fast when it started, but it is slowing way down, and now we have all the rest of the people who will "get left behind" just like in 2008/09.

Then there is the election which is a lose/lose situation with regards to the market/economy.

 

[WAW44]

Still about 100% for the year, so not complaining yet.

 

[The Heretic]

Still about 100% for the year, so not complaining yet.

Yes, but...

I was about 3% up for the year when I cashed out thinking we are going to have another significant downturn.

The market has closed and there was no buying at the end of the day, so we'll see what happens tomorrow, then Monday and next week. I am thinking there won't be any uptick tomorrow, but I could be wrong - with a significant dip like this, some may be tempted to jump back in. But I think most will either wait it out to see what the market does, or they will sell even more.

 

[WAW44]

I will get out at 10 % off the highs, but have not hit that yet. Yes, my portfolio is mostly tech, so high risk, high volatility.

Yes, but...

I was about 3% up for the year when I cashed out thinking we are going to have another significant downturn.

The market has closed and there was no buying at the end of the day, so we'll see what happens tomorrow, then Monday and next week. I am thinking there won't be any uptick tomorrow, but I could be wrong - with a significant dip like this, some may be tempted to jump back in. But I think most will either wait it out to see what the market does, or they will sell even more.

 

[Boss]

^^Yes, there's still a lot of damage that is going to catch up. If you look at history back around the stock market crash in 1929, it wasn't until years later that the unemployment peaked, etc.

The 'We're all in this together' is going to run out pretty hard in the near future.

Boss