Operation Blood in the Streets

[The Heretic]

E.U. Is Facing Its Worst Recession Ever. Watch Out, World. (Published 2020)

New forecasts predict a 7.4 percent economic collapse and risks of even worse decline if the reopening triggers a second virus wave.

www.nytimes.com

 

[CountryGent]

I have made a few changes to our portfolio, but am still holding off on some because it looks like plenty more economic misery is on the way.

 

[The Heretic]

Yesterday I looked at what each individual fund I held $ in was doing, and what it was back in Dec/Jan time frame.

It looked like most of the stock funds took a nose dive about the first to second second week of Feb, then bonds about a week after that - people cashing out most everything, including bonds.

Lately I have 3-4 funds that are dragging down the rest, whereas most of them are slowly gaining.

Not sure whether I am going to use Jan/Feb as a benchmark or Dec, but at some point, hopefully before July, I am going to get into a money market funds (different from accounts - I would have to cash out an IRA and pay taxes on that to put it into an account - I think) - probably several - mostly ones that are in gov securities (if gov. securities go south, having dollars won't do me much good).

Then I will sit and wait for the SHTF in the markets. At worst, I hope to have the $ I stashed/earned. At best I hope to make some good $ by buying low if/when the markets tank.

 

[The Heretic]

Explainer: Why 14.7% unemployment rate doesn't capture the true state of the coronavirus economy

The U.S. economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, a government report Friday showed.

www.reuters.com

 

[The Heretic]

U.S. jobless rate likely to move higher in month ahead: White House adviser

The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to move up to around 20% this month from an already historically high 14.7%, a White House adviser said on Friday, adding the economy should transition to stronger footing in the summer.

www.reuters.com

 

[CountryGent]

Stocks rise on hopes that awful jobs report marks the bottom.

 

[revjen45]

Cash for clunkers:
Cheap gas means I can afford to drive our '03 F250 (48K miles exc. cond.) finally/again. It's a keeper.
'14 Hyundai 2.0 Turbo - last year for the 276hp motor. Love it. It's a keeper
'49 Chev. Shooting Brake (Suburban) Mechanically reconditioned, Clifford Research 292 ci 6cyl, 5-spd Getrag trans, disc brakes. It's a keeper.
Cash for clunkers? No, thanks. I'll run what I got.

 

[The Heretic]

Stocks rise on hopes that awful jobs report marks the bottom.

One can hope, but I think we will see long lasting economic effects later on once things start to fallout.

Meanwhile, my hope is for continued optimism so I can get back to near Dec/Jan levels at least, if not Feb levels. Then I can cash out and hold what I got for a while. Maybe I will miss out on some earnings (like I did a few years ago), but at this point I am going to be conservative.

 

[CountryGent]

Indeed. I have to wonder how long the above is going to last.

 

[The Heretic]

Indeed. I have to wonder how long the above is going to last.

Once the real impact becomes clear in the second half of the year, into first quarter of next year, we will see the worst of it.

Two factors - depth and breadth - come to mind. Another is volatility and character. Will it be a 'V', 'W', 'U' or 'L' recovery? I am thinking 'W' with a lot of volatility - that will catch a lot of people off guard. I think we are in the first half of the 'W' - or we may see WW or WWW.

Nobody is really sure of any of this but I am not in a position to let it ride like I did in past recessions/corrections/etc. - I am unemployed and close to retirement (if not already there) so I am going to play it safe, be as frugal as possible, and cash out when I think I can without losing too much of what I once had. Hopefully I can get back to my previous income, but I may have to ride it out with just SSI and what I save from UI benefits (there is talk of more to come, but I am not counting on it).

The other side of this for me is how this affects the value of my property and the real estate market as I want to sell in the next year or so.

 

[The Heretic]

America lost so many jobs in April that we could barely fit the numbers in this chart of historic downturns (and that includes all of the Great Recession)

The economic chaos caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic already dwarfs historical recessions, including the Great Recession.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[CountryGent]

From Market Watch: Why the stock market rally is actually signaling an 'abnormal' economic recovery, not a V-shaped coronavirus rebound.

 

[The Heretic]

Consumer prices post biggest decline since 2008 as coronavirus puts clamps on inflation

One thing anxious Americans don’t have to worry about, with the COVID-19 pandemic shutting down large slices of the economy, is inflation. Consumer prices...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[CountryGent]

Looks like the smart move was to invest in ... hotdog producers.

Hot dogs sales skyrocket by more than 120% during the coronavirus pandemic, as Americans embrace the 'best quarantine food'

 

[The Heretic]

Looks like the smart move was to invest in ... hotdog producers.

Hot dogs sales skyrocket by more than 120% during the coronavirus pandemic, as Americans embrace the 'best quarantine food'

I prefer kielbasa - Costco has some - I buy a package of six or so, about a $1 per sausage. Cut them in half (too long for a slice of bread), put some cuts in them so they nuke well and the casing is easier to chew thru, and they make a nice sandwich. Lasts me several weeks if I space them out with other food for lunch/etc. - then the last one I slice up to make gumbo. Better tasting than cheap hot dogs - but I buy those too - usually some of the "hot" kind with more beef than pork/chicken - got large pack of those sitting in the freezer.

Next time I go to Costco I am going to get more packages of kielbasa so I have some in the freezer - or maybe I will find someplace that sells them for less.

 

[CountryGent]

I never was a fan of processed foods, but sin, well, now we're talking: 7 Sin Stocks To Buy During The Coronavirus Shutdown.

 

[The Heretic]

Some 42% Of Jobs Lost In Pandemic Are Gone For Good

Meanwhile, George Soros says he worries about the future of globalization, the euro zone, and deteriorating U.S. China relations.

www.forbes.com

 

[ma96782]

Today the DOW was up over 900 points. OMG....should have bought some _______ last week.

Aloha, Mark

 

[ZigZagZeke]

A market correction is inevitable. When? Who knows. (If I could time that I would I wouldn't be spending my days writing in languages computers understand.) That said, is anyone else gearing up for a massive correction in the market? I know I am; the 2008 crash was hell on Earth, but, wow, what a time to buy. And buy we did, with most joyful results. Simple investment strategy and plans tucked away for when it goes down:


View attachment 618160

• Your plans?
• Any stock, bond, mutual fund, ETF, or other investment plays you plan to invest in? Why?

Thanks for sharing.

I'm all cash and have been since about February.

 

[The Heretic]

I've still got ~$30K to recoup in losses in the markets (stock and bonds) before I cash out.

Crossing my fingers that happens before it crashes.

I know my job is gone, gone, gone. Even if 60% of the people currently unemployed start work tomorrow, that would put the remaining unemployment rate at 8-10%. The rate will take years to get back below 5%.