Operation Blood in the Streets

[The Heretic]

Trump is going to get reelected. The Market will shoot up once he does and once he is free to make heads roll, this covid bubblegum will end and the economy will come roaring back. Money is being printed fast which = inflation = stock market rising.

You are going to miss alot of gains in the meantime. In fact every second you are in cash, it devalues.

Had you left your money in the market you would be at an all time high right now.

I don't think he will be re-elected, and actually I have read that a number of traders now think Biden will be better for the market. I don't know about Biden being better for the economy, but the market works on subjective opinion, and less on facts - the market != the economy. So I am betting on a dip which seems contrarian but I am betting the dip will happen before the election. I think we will see a resurgence of CV-19, a rise in unemployment and bad economic numbers, not to mention continued riots. Then there is the market which I think is overpriced and due for at least a correction of 5-10%.

I could be wrong - we shall see. I was wrong in 2016.

 

[Mikej]

Had you left your money in the market you would be at an all time high right now.

This is true. We took it in the shorts, short term, but we're back up and well over where we were a year and a half ago. But I'm scared that we're going to crash again and feel like calling our guy and saying "I Quit!" "Sell it and put us in all money". Or send me the stack and I'll buy another safe for it. I became i'll seeing what happened to the money we were supposed to be able to live on to the end. I didn't even look at our Morgan Stanley accounts for three months.

 

[The Heretic]

If you are not retiring soon, Stop trying to time the market.

You don't have to be fast to time the market when the market crashes for more than a day. Had I been in cash before Feb/Mar, I could have made a 3-40% return this year by buying when the market crashed.

Max your 401K, taking advantage of employer contributions
Max an IRA

Do this for 30 years and you will retire with many millions of dollars.

I am retired. I am up over where I was at the beginning of the year. I only went to cash last week.

 

[nk02442]

Do you you plan on dying today? If you are retired you could still live 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 years more.

You need that money to continue to outpace inflation. In roughly 15-20 years, the price of everything doubles.

It would be wise to go a littler heavier into fixed incomes vs equities but you still need growth.

Like Mike said, don't even look at it. Once a year take a look and re-balance according to risks.

Like Emeril says, Set it and forget it.

 

[Mikej]

Like Emeril says, Set it and forget it.

That was Ron Popeil

Show Time Oven!....."Set it, and FORGET IT!!"

 

[nk02442]

I don't think he will be re-elected, and actually I have read that a number of traders now think Biden will be better for the market. I don't know about Biden being better for the economy, but the market works on subjective opinion, and less on facts - the market != the economy. So I am betting on a dip which seems contrarian but I am betting the dip will happen before the election. I think we will see a resurgence of CV-19, a rise in unemployment and bad economic numbers, not to mention continued riots. Then there is the market which I think is overpriced and due for at least a correction of 5-10%.

I could be wrong - we shall see. I was wrong in 2016.

95% of what you read is propaganda. For all sources. If you understood who owned the media (6 huge companies), Social media ect; you would put very little stock into what these knucklheads say. If they say its raining outside its more than likely dry and sunny.

Biden is retarded. Literally a barley functional retard. He gets in the markets WILL crash because the economy will crash shortly after.

Then when you understand a few people control the markets you have no idea what is going to happen. The Bears been saying XYZ is about to happen all the time, and because they are right 1 out of 1000 times, they say SEE I TOLD YOU.

Humans will keep pushing on, commerce will keep pushing on and everything is temporary. Population is always growing which means demand for raw goods , products and services will keep growing.

You can't time the market, You can try but you will be wrong much more than you are right and lose way more money in the long run. Its been tried. Super computers, quants and algos rule this market along with a few big market movers. You can't time it. They barley can.

 

[The Heretic]

Do you you plan on dying today? If you are retired you could still live 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 years more.

You need that money to continue to outpace inflation. In roughly 15-20 years, the price of everything doubles.

It would be wise to go a littler heavier into fixed incomes vs equities but you still need growth.

Like Mike said, don't even look at it. Once a year take a look and re-balance according to risks.

Like Emeril says, Set it and forget it.

I've been doing ok. My situation is a bit different from most retired; my IRAs/401K are not for me; I have other income that I live off of and for the present I don't need those funds, hopefully I will never need them. They are for my daughter.

I understand that I will lose some earning opportunity - I said that previously.

Next year you can tell me "I told you so" or I can.

 

[jbett98]

Being self employed most of my working career, I worked hard at saving cash for any type of emergencies, whether it was loss of work due to injuries or a slow down in the construction trade.
Luckily, I married a gal who gets no enjoyment in spending money, that right there helped me save a considerable amount and now that I'm retired with a paid for home and no expenses other then the usual power, water and property taxes, I can live with just my social security and part time work when I feel like it.
The only upcoming expense is to my dentist and the last visit I had, we were discussing how it felt when I paid off my home mortgage and I told him it was great but he was my house payment now.

 

[308]

Had you left your money in the market you would be at an all time high right now.

Our Ameriprise account is up 138% from March 2020 when our advisor repositioned. I won't say what that figure is, but it is enough to buy a nice home for cash. MAGA

 

[arakboss]

Our Ameriprise account is up 138% from March 2020 when our advisor repositioned. I won't say what that figure is, but it is enough to buy a nice home for cash. MAGA

There are winners and losers, you are a winner. Congrats and I would send your Ameriprise Rep a xmas card.

 

[308]

There are winners and losers, you are a winner. Congrats and I would send your Ameriprise Rep a xmas card.

She earns her keep

 

[The Heretic]

The Economy Is On A Sugar High, With 28 Million Unemployed

The economy remains on a free-money induced sugar high. We have yet to see the worst of the Recession, and when we do, the Fed will have little choice but to print more money.

www.forbes.com

 

[The Heretic]

The Economy Is On A Sugar High, With 28 Million Unemployed

The economy remains on a free-money induced sugar high. We have yet to see the worst of the Recession, and when we do, the Fed will have little choice but to print more money.

www.forbes.com

But, the real kicker was the Fed's view on the economic outlook. The Fed gave two scenarios, both of which are given an equal probability. In all of my many years of Fed watching, I have never seen them gravitate toward a pessimistic scenario or come off as a worried bunch. But they did in July. In this scenario, the virus has a second wave, more businesses close, GDP falls again, unemployment rises, and deflation prevails.

The real economic consequences come when the helicopter money stops.

The thing is, each of these causes has a delayed effect - at least the effect is delayed in its visibility to the economists and somewhat to the market. E.G., the $600 federal supplement to UI benefits stopped 3 weeks ago. We will see the effect of that in the August numbers come September reports.

There is also the fact that some 40+% of jobs that people lost, are permanent losses (mine was). Unemployment has dropped significantly, but it will (or has) bottom out well above the ~3.5% pre-pandemic level, more than double IMO, maybe as much as 10% or more (especially when you take into account all of the people who can't get UI benefits but are still unemployed while wanting to work). Then there are the people who went back to work, only to be laid off again. In short, the unemployment rate will bounce around - the equivalent of a dead cat bounce.

If/when UI benefits completely run out (as soon as the end of the year unless they are extended again), we will see another decrease in spending on top of what we see now - just in time for XMas and the start of 2020. Unless they extended the benefits again (unclear if the state EB will kick in then for some people like me).

 

[The Heretic]

Bankruptcies, both business and personal are increasing - personal bankruptcies are probably going to skyrocket after the end of the year. Businesses are closing. This will have a ripple effect.

I don't know if we will see the "dip" this year, before the election or after, but I think there will be a dip.

I wanted to lock in what I had - about a 3% increase over the first quarter - enough to account for inflation for the year and into next year. I can much easier deal with the loss of earning opportunity than I can with the 30% loss from the crash earlier this year, even though it all came back faster than I thought it would.

I think the next "dip" will be at least 10% and it won't be something that is there one day and gone the next; the Feb/Mar crash took 30 days to bottom out, spent about a week at the bottom, and took 5 months to get back to where it is now.

It doesn't take a supercomputer to "buy the dip" when the market crashes like that.

 

[Medic!]

Hopefully everybody keeps their stock market earnings.
But the music is still playing.

I for one don't let my political views direct my financial investments.
That would be like telling yourself you know what car will win a race. Because you like Ford.

No.
Trump is my man for getting supreme court justices.
But he's not the Economy.

Just a voice tugging in one direction.

 

[The Heretic]

Hopefully everybody keeps their stock market earnings.
But the music is still playing.

I for one don't let my political views direct my financial investments.
That would be like telling yourself you know what car will win a race. Because you like Ford.

No.
Trump is my man for getting supreme court justices.
But he's not the Economy.

Just a voice tugging in one direction.

Trump winning the election or not is just one of the variables I took into account, and either way, I don't think the result will be pretty.

Other much more important variables are the economy, CV-19 and unemployment, and despite what some people think, none of those problems will magically disappear after the first week of November or improve one iota. I base my decisions on facts, not conspiracy theories.

 

[CountryGent]

I base my decisions on facts, not conspiracy theories.

Always a good idea. One thing that has been made manifest this year is how many subscribe to various myths, pseudoscience, conspiracies, and related flapdoodle. (Though in small doses it unintentionally, albeit fleetingly, hilarious. )

 

[USMC1911]

Trump winning the election or not is just one of the variables I took into account, and either way, I don't think the result will be pretty.

Other much more important variables are the economy, CV-19 and unemployment, and despite what some people think, none of those problems will magically disappear after the first week of November or improve one iota. I base my decisions on facts, not conspiracy theories.

I am with you. You can't time the market but you can see obvious signs that things are not going well short term and not stellar looking medium term at the moment no matter who wins the election.

 

[oldcorpgunny]

I have invested my entire life savings in Spam. Not the email type, but the canned ham stuff. My garage, half my shop and a 40' container are filled with this meat-like product. When it all goes south, can you imagine the lines of hungry city folks that will be lined up to have a Spam "Sammy"? I will only accept precious metal as payment. Ah, Spam the meat substitute of tomorrow! I love the smell of Spam in the morning!

 

[CountryGent]

I am with you. You can't time the market but you can see obvious signs that things are not going well short term and not stellar looking medium term at the moment no matter who wins the election.

Exactly.

I have invested my entire life savings in Spam. Not the email type, but the canned ham stuff. My garage, half my shop and a 40' container are filled with this meat-like product. When it all goes south, can you imagine the lines of hungry city folks that will be lined up to have a Spam "Sammy"? I will only accept precious metal as payment. Ah, Spam the meat substitute of tomorrow! I love the smell of Spam in the morning!

And when it, finally, goes bad (well, worse), it can be used as an improvised weapon.