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CountryGent

CountryGent

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Sky has been falling for years according to some people. Look around you. Life is pretty good for a LOT of people. Look at all the construction going on. Look at all of the unfilled skilled jobs. Sure looks pretty good to me for the next almost year or at least till the end of the summer.
Indeed. Longest bull run in human history. Unemployment the lowest in, literally, 50 years. And, naturally, the world's largest economy.
 
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CountryGent

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I'm not familiar with the "Woodpile Report", but the fact the author quotes Kunstler repeatedly on the main page is not a good sign at all. (For those unfamiliar with his work, he's a misanthropic moron that routinely pontificates on fields in which he has zero training or experience, but somehow feels qualified to do so because it fits his apocalyptic narrative. His idiocy first came to my attention when he was one of the chief Y2K doommeisters. At least with that one the evidence he was completely full of crap was apparent when 1/1/2000 rolled around.)
 
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Even a broken clock is correct twice A-day.
That gives a broken clock a in 12 chance of being somewhat near being correct, and only if it is a 12 hour clock not a 24 hour clock. I would not make financial plans based on a broken clock.

I don't listen to the doomsayers because they are constantly preaching doom, but I pay attention when about half the economists think a recession is at least probable. Then there are the corps that are preparing for a downturn, or at least a slowdown in growth.

I work for a client (I am a contractor/consultant) that is in a very cyclic industry/sector - one that is the leader in their market, and at least a partial bellwether of the rest of the economy because without it, nothing would make it to market or to a factory floor. When they see a downturn, one of the possible reasons is the economy - the other being a glut of capacity/product on the market - both can happen at the same time.

I hope there is not a recession - the economists seem to vacillate back and forth on that. But it seems like the majority predict a slowdown in growth and for the stock market to be less energetic this year.

We shall see.
 
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CountryGent

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I don't listen to the doomsayers because they are constantly preaching doom, but I pay attention when about half the economists think a recession is at least probable.
Ditto. In any market, one can find those saying the happy days will never end or conversely tomorrow will make Mad Max look like a tea party. And, of course, there is always going to be the looney-tune fringe spouting their crackpot notions. It all adds up to a bunch of noise that is easily dispensed with.

Instead there is real data, being honest with one's risk tolerance, keeping expectations reasonably, and leaving emotions out of investment decisions. :)
 
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Last edited:

Dyjital

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but there are strong hints in the trucking industry that 2020-2021 won't be like 2018-2019
Working in and around this field, there is a slowdown coming. Rail/intermodal has shown a decrease in 2019 as well. The weaker leveraged companies are folding.
 
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Working in and around this field, there is a slowdown coming. Rail/intermodal has shown a decrease in 2019 as well. The weaker leveraged companies are folding.
We have offered up to $30 HR...plus signing bonus...plus full benefits......for truck drivers and had zero applicants this last summer/fall.

-E-
 
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Interesting that my funds, which are mostly bonds/etc., did better yesterday than last week when stocks rallied. It seems with my current mix I do well with geopolitical volatility.
 

zenbreath

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(For those unfamiliar with his work, he's a misanthropic moron that routinely pontificates on fields in which he has zero training or experience,
Sooooo...... if you were Maj Walter Reed, and you were trying to find the cause of malaria, would you take the advice of an old man in a mental institution?
 
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When a company moves to make a Social issue, an investment strategy, one should be aware.

 

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