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Olov's 5 Stages of Collapse

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by kenno, Feb 12, 2012.

  1. kenno

    kenno eastern WA Active Member

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    I lifted this from tis site:
    ClubOrlov: The Five Stages of Collapse
    Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one's career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence. But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found a continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from "a severe and prolonged recession" (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler's "Long Emergency," to the ever-popular "Collapse of Western Civilization," painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

    For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point. Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his "Collapse of Complex Societies," there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

    For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union - our most recent and my personal favorite example of an imperial collapse - did not reach the point of political disintegration of the republics that made it up, although some of them (Georgia, Moldova) did lose some territory to separatist movements. And although most of the economy shut down for a time, many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout. And although there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse, because most of the population did not lose access to food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. This situation, as I argue in my forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse, allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States.

    Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers - the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this - I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it. Rather than tying each phase to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift. It is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie.

    Stages of Collapse

    Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

    Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

    Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

    Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

    Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.

    Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy - a conscious but inexorable march to perdition - rather than a farce ("Oops! Ah, here we are, Stage 5." - "So, whom do we eat first?" - "Me! I am delicious!") Let us sketch out this process.

    Financial collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts. One is that a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development. The second part consists of men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, "bubblegumed up," and so this is also just as it should be.

    The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about "the wages of sin" and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: "You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, 'bubblegumed up,' and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don't do dishes." This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse - the Second Great Depression.

    However, this is unlikely, because in the US the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

    About the only thing the government currently seems it fit to do is extend further credit to those in trouble, by setting interest rates at far below inflation, by accepting worthless bits of paper as collateral and by pumping money into insolvent financial institutions. This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

    As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example, repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population. It could promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defence forces to maintain law and order. The Army Corps of Engineers could be ordered to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced. In the interim, it could reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent. With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

    This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children's futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. Thus, a much more likely scenario is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests. It will impose austerity conditions, maintain law and order through draconian means, and aide in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations. As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

    If Stage 1 collapse can be observed by watching television, observing Stage 2 might require a hike or a bicycle ride to the nearest population center, while Stage 3 collapse is more than likely to be visible directly through one's own living-room window, which may or may not still have glass in it. After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States - because "nobody goes there any more." So as not to lose out on the entertainment value, the foreign press still prints sporadic fables about Americans who eat their young, much as they did about Russia following the Soviet collapse. A few brave American expatriates who still come back to visit bring back amazing stories of a different kind, but everyone considers them eccentric and perhaps a little bit crazy.

    Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

    As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct fedral, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

    Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity's existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

    If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book The Mountain People. If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

    As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

    While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone's while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities - those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations - avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to support a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

    Although it is possible to prepare directly for surviving Stage 5, this seems like an altogether demoralizing thing to attempt. Preparing to survive Stages 3 and 4 may seem somewhat more reasonable, while explicitly aiming for Stage 3 may be reasonable if you plan to become one of the Big Men. Be that as it may, I must leave such preparations as an exercise for the reader. My hope is that these definitions of specific stages of collapse will enable a more specific and fruitful discussion than the one currently dominated by such vague and ultimately nonsensical terms as "the collapse of Western civilization."
     
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  2. chemist

    chemist Beaverton OR Well-Known Member

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    The Five Stages is a broad, deep interpretation of what Orlov witnessed in Russia in '91-'92. I think his model is readily adapted to the many different ways that collapse could manifest in different countries. I fully expect that it will look vastly different in the US than it did in the USSR.

    But I don't like his conclusions - his sailboat. It sounds frankly preposterous to me, bugging out to sea. A little wooden hole in the water is a lot more fragile a homestead than my house in the dirt surrounded by neighbors that I know and trust.

    It's like anything else, you take what you like and leave the rest. His world-view illuminates my interpretation of the evening news.
     
  3. A.I.P.

    A.I.P. UpperUS Active Member

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    Berkeley Police Too ‘Occupied’ to Deal With Brutal Beating That Left Man Dead
    Posted on February 20, 2012 at 9:39pm by Mytheos Holt
    A man in Berkeley was beaten to death while confronting a protester. And according to reports, police were too busy dealing with Occupy protesters to respond.

    The San Francisco Chronicle has the story explaining how an unidentified victim savagely beaten by a trespasser — suspected to be a mentally ill 23-year-old named Daniel Jordan Dewitt — attempted to call the police regarding his assailant. The call was ignored because Berkeley police were too busy dealing with Occupy Oakland protesters:

    The victim had called police on a nonemergency line after first seeing Dewitt, according to sources familiar with the case. But police were busy monitoring an Occupy Oakland march to UC Berkeley, and officers were dispatched only to high-priority calls.

    The trespassing call was even further ignored when an officer told the dispatcher he had plans to go check out the call, but was told not to go. Minutes later, the victim was beaten to death with a potted plant.

    The alleged perpetrator, Dewitt, is a graduate of Alameda High, where he played football, as well as the grandson of a former Berkeley city councilman. His mother told authorities he had a “history of mental illness,” though of what kind, it is not known.

    Occupy Oakland, on the other hand, has been far more consistent and understandable in its application of violence and trespassing. Protesters have already degenerated into violence in the city — as even the Huffington Post, which many believe is sympathetic toward the movement, reported:

    A protest that shut down the Port of Oakland to show the broadening reach of the Occupy Wall Street movement ended in violence when police in riot gear arrested dozens of protesters overnight who broke into a vacant building, shattered downtown windows, sprayed graffiti and set blazes along the way.

    Ironically, they claim to be the wronged party in these events. A lawsuit filed by Occupy Oakland against the city alleges that they have been the victims of excessive police brutality — brutality that offers claim was warranted, given the high amount of violence that has taken place among the protesters.
    Collages are now offering "Classes" for potential Occupiers
     
  4. Burt Gummer

    Burt Gummer Portland Completely Out of Ammo

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  5. A.I.P.

    A.I.P. UpperUS Active Member

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    Evile entices the weak to act-out and commit more evile
     
  6. Hook686

    Hook686 Northern California Active Member

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    A BIG flaw I see is that with the 'Grief Cycle' an actual negative experience has reall occured. With the alleged "prospect of social and economic upheaval" in Olov's 5 Stages of Collapse it is still illusionary. If you enjoy a life of seeing the glass as half empty this probably appeals to you. One can feel self justified in promoting the end of the world and the doom of mankind.

    On the other hand on can choose to see the glass as half full and simply accept that the world has not ended, nor has mankind become extinct. No need to jump into anger, bargaining, or depression. A prudent person has a diverse portfolio, multiple resources and more than one option for any situation.

    For those who have, "already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval", their reality has already been set and it will impact each and every decision made. Can there be any freedom from such insanity ? Of course not, it is not insanity, but reality to the observer.

    I find it amuzing that, "Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout." This ought be very comforting to those that must retreat to realize that the retreat is taking place in an organized manner ... though it is not clear just who is doing the organizing and who is being organized.

    Somehow I am not comforted by being able to define the specific stages of any alleged "collapse of western civilization" more fruitfully.
     
  7. kenno

    kenno eastern WA Active Member

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    So your saying that although your income, 401K and savings are taking a huge hit as fuel prices Necessarily Skyrocket and you become ever more immobilized in freedom of action and movement that by looking at all the positive aspects impoverishment and endentured servitude bring to your life you will personaly reverse the situation. Or conversely, you will believe you have and behave accordingly.
    If such is so why are you bothering to visit a forum full of deluded, "INSANE" doomers?

    Or are you actually progressing through the 1st stage of Grief which is Denial?

    And BTW, before you get an attitude; no one here cares if you are right or wrong, rich or poor, or even if your survival quotient is high or low. Everyone here enjoys perfect equality, if that disturbs you it might be best to join the "Survivalists" on a social network
     
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  8. Hook686

    Hook686 Northern California Active Member

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    First, my "income, 401K and savings" are not taking a huge hit. If yours are I can empathize. Gasoline: if it goes up 50 cents a gallon it amounts to $7.00 a tankful. I find this hardly a 'Huge hit'. I give up a couple of Starbucks during the month and I'm equal.

    You can focus on the 'impoverishment and endentured servitude' you see in the future. I do not see that I can 'control' life ... it happens. I can learn to adapt to the changes, whether I like them, or not.

    Why do I visit, "INSANE" doomers ? I think it rather simple. No matter what the future holds, I will be involved with the folks. You seem to have a lot of judgments about others, which leads me to question your statement, "Everyone here enjoys perfect equality". It seems to me that it disturbs you more than me.

    I simply share my view of the world, past, present and future. It is my personal view and I project it on no one else. I have stocks of goods, energy alternatives, group affiliations, and defensive equipment. I enjoy seeing what others are stocking up on.

    If "no one here cares", why do folks visit the board ? Different strokes for different folks. I personally will continue not to grieve over that which has not yet happened as it seems to enhance my disposition. You enjoy your view from your perspective, and good luck with you quest.
     
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  9. kenno

    kenno eastern WA Active Member

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    .50 cents? try $1.90 a gallon in the past 3 years that's comming close to $24 a tank, every tank, for you. That's alot of Starbucks. For many others that's comming close to $80 a tank.
    The rest of your comentary is nothing more than parseing
    Like I said, your in denial.
     
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  10. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    I'm having a lot of problems with the premises of the OP article. When the writer, in the first paragraph, develops this premise and makes this statement: "...inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence" I turn off.

    I don't believe in resource depletion or climate change. I certainly don't believe in them in my lifetime.

    I do believe that our governments at all levels are addicted to debt and also that society is addicted to handouts. I do believe that is unsustainable. I do see massive inflation simply because the Fed runs the printing presses.

    I do believe we could be heading into another Great Depression, but the country survived one already. My 95 year old Dad survived it and he tells me about it from a real life perspective. It wasn't good. The next one could be worse because people feel "entitled" to government assistance - something which wasn't true in the 1930's.

    Still, I see a completely different scenario than the author, because I see different causes and therefore different effects.
     
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  11. A.I.P.

    A.I.P. UpperUS Active Member

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    Like you I don't believe in GW or PO however TPTB are intentionaly inducing crisis so the effect is essentialy the same: chaos in order to institute a New Global Order a Global Currency, Global Disarmament, Global Re-Education.
    The Great Depression was only Great in the USA. Why? Because FDR, a Progressive, introduced State controls on the economy. Our Depression lasted from 1929-1940 but in europe, who was far worse off due to WW1 it only lasted 3-5 years
    This time there is no production sector to provide jobs, there is no inexpensive domestic oil or power. PPL are being paid not to work by the few PPL that have jobs, how do you grow an economy in those conditions?
     
  12. Hook686

    Hook686 Northern California Active Member

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    24 bucks a month ... still not a big hit in my view of things. Now if you go back to the day when it was 29 cents a gallon, or $3 a tank, verse $80 a tank full, then I can see some room to bubblegum. However back in the day my pay was $128 a month. Things change, learn to adapt.

    Perhaps you are right, but then perhaps I am happier and still preparing for my needs as I learn and decide whether, or not, "That's a good idea".

    Good luck in your preparing.
     
  13. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    Can't argue that.
     
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  14. Gunner3456

    Gunner3456 Salem Well-Known Member

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    24 bucks a tank, not a month and that's an average car tank. Try that on my 27 gallon tank on my F150.

    If you have two people in a home filling up once a week, obviously that's $50 a week, more if they are bigger cars, SUV's or pickups. That's a real hit for some people.

    Add to that the rising costs of groceries...

    Did you know that our clever Federal Government doesn't count energy or food in the inflation index (CPI), while those are two of the things people need most and buy most? How convenient for them. They don't report it but some people really feel it.
     
  15. aslinged

    aslinged Southern Oregon Well-Known Member

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    Two facts to consider:

    -the rising price of gas doesn't just hit you as you fill up your tank....it hits you on virtually every single transported and produced item in existence.
    -Orlov recanted his Five discrete stages recently saying they will all hit at once and potentially at the end of March to coincide with the (this time we really really mean it) Greek hard default.

    Take it for what it's worth.
     
  16. knuckle Head

    knuckle Head southeast Well-Known Member

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    EXACTLY. DANG WELL PUT, MY THOUGHTS EXACTLY!!!!!

    Businesses do not absorb higher fuel cost thay pass them on, so do the airlines, trains , ocean freighters everyone of these businesses, everytime I visit the grocery store or super walmart or any where else I notice prices have increased, with stagnent wages it is onlyh a matter of time.

    Oh btw a few less starbucks or mcdonalds by everyone means they start closing a few stores here or there meaning less people working, higher unemployment, more debt, and myes more crime
     
  17. Burt Gummer

    Burt Gummer Portland Completely Out of Ammo

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    It all boils down to protecting the bubble aka the status quo. That is why people go ape over the thought of gas going up by a $1 but could care a less about us criminally bombing the crap out of another country so that the .001% can make their billions.
     
  18. A.I.P.

    A.I.P. UpperUS Active Member

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    Holy sheet that's when Occupy Launches it's new assualt. I hope Orlov is wrong because there is alot of pent up angst and rage out there.
    I can see where the US is past stage #1 and on the verge of #2, no #3or#4 but early signs of #5 is present, we see it in the news daily.
    Beck is right the only way to beat the cultural onslaught is through spiritual community backed by the Founding Documents. However I think that forming a group recruited online is extremely risky. Stick to your family and church, even a sports team, where you already have an idea what values the others have. There's going to be alot of psyco drama when PPL realize thier world has changed, for the worse
     
  19. moose

    moose northwet coast Well-Known Member

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    Truth, that.
     
  20. Hook686

    Hook686 Northern California Active Member

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    You pay the piper now, or you pay the piper later .... If you can buy the F-150 then you knew the gas consumption scenario ahead of time. I bought a hybrid and knew it would be about a tank and a half every month based upon my driving. Sometimes preparing is deciding what to buy, as well as when to buy it.
     
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