Burnside Bridge collapse simulation....

[3MTA3]

We are somewhat overdue for a 300 year on average 9.x Cascadia Fault earthquake by several years. The longer it takes the stronger the quake. It's not if but when. The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest

"... OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years. ..."

"... The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast." ..."
​

When it happens I hope that it won't be as severe as projected, but yet one more reason I'm headed east.

 

[wired]

Waiting for my property values to rise.

 

[Koda]

A full scale Cascadia quake WILL destroy that bridge. It MAY be left standing if there are major $$$$ structural upgrades done to it but it will still have to come down in the end and it will need to get replaced with another bridge.

but as long as I can maybe scramble across on foot at the bare minimum Id be happy if I was stuck on the other side when SHTF...

 

[Koda]

We are somewhat overdue for a 300 year on average 9.x Cascadia Fault earthquake by several years. The longer it takes the stronger the quake. It's not if but when. The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest

"... OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years. ..."

"... The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast." ..."
​

When it happens I hope that it won't be as severe as projected, but yet one more reason I'm headed east.

and here's the icing on that cake.... if it goes off like that there will be no real option to leave, there is no "whoever chooses" to stay it is all no choice if the bridges and road system is toast.

 

[teflon6string]

True dat. An EMP or a medium quake would make Portland unusable, setting them back well over 100 years. Glad I'm not there anymore.

 

[HB of CJ]

And we still want to move to Brookings.

 

[Gaucho Gringo]

Why they would choose the Burnside Bridge is beyond me. It was a political scandal when it was built with substandard materials, kickbacks and bribes. It was the reason the Sellwood bridge was built so cheaply in the aftermath of the Burnside Bridge scandal. Seems like another boondoggle almost 100 rears later. Portland history just keeps repeating itself.

 

[Lilhigbee]

It was a political scandal when it was built with substandard materials, kickbacks and bribes.

Don't you see?? Something they can relate to!!

 

[Mark W.]

Well on the bright side I live in Silverton and drive Dump truck. Pretty sure I will be making boo coo OT if this happens, All that extra money. LOL

 

[tac]

A full scale Cascadia quake WILL destroy that bridge. It MAY be left standing if there are major $$$$ structural upgrades done to it but it will still have to come down in the end and it will need to get replaced with another bridge.

Just be gratish that the Missoula floods are a ways behind us. A major earthquake heading in from the west, and a 500 foot high wall of water travelling at 80mph heading down the gorge from the East is going to just about ruin EVERYBODY's day, IMO.

tac

 

[CoastRange57]

The problem with this video is that it only shows what would happen to the bridge during such an earhtquake, and leaves out what would would happen to the surrounding area.

There is a disclaimer at the start of the video that says that in plain english.

The fact is, if such an earthquake were to occur, the soil on both sides of the river would liquefy. This would happen upstream as well. That would send a wall of trees and debris into the "shipping lane", an area that would now look like the area around Mt. St. Helens in 1980.e
We wouldn't really need a Burnside Bridge after that earthquake, because there would be no Burnside Street to connect.

Exactly. The video is sh*t. You cannot model what will happen. When it shows the draw bridge spans separating and the one on the right falls into the river and then it stops when about 16 to 20 feet of it are in the water. Now the water in that channel I have marked at about 63 feet, so that bridge section would have just have kept falling rip out of the structure and sink out of site, forever blocking deep water passage in that area.

Get on Google Earth pull it back out to about 80,000 feet or better and study the geography of the Portland Metro area, and you will see it is built on nothing by various types of outflows from the Missoula Floods. How that all will react is unknown ans supposition is not accurate.

 

[CoastRange57]

Well on the bright side I live in Silverton and drive Dump truck. Pretty sure I will be making boo coo OT if this happens, All that extra money. LOL

Maybe if you can figure out how to cross about a million waterways with no bridges in that dump truck.

 

[CoastRange57]

"... OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years. ..."

​

This has to be one of the biggest loads of horsesh*t that I have ever read about the earthquake damage estimate. It has taken over 60 or more years to establish these types of infrastructure and this moron thinks it will all be fixed in a "few months" " to 3 years". No fing way. The entire area is off the grid for 10 years. That is if somehow they find the money to fix it all.​

 

[Certaindeaf]

This is why we need to invest heavily in human launchers.

 

[Mark W.]

Maybe if you can figure out how to cross about a million waterways with no bridges in that dump truck.

You think the only thing I could make money with a dump truck on is that bridge. I can assure you that if the "BIG ONE" hits there will be plenty of work nice and close to where the truck parks. You are also assuming that ALL the bridges would be out. This is just not the case. For instance there are railroad bridges over the Abiqua river (the closest thing I would have to cross heading north. That are single structure Steel. Made as one piece back east and brought here on a train. Its one unit.

There are also ways across the Willamette that do not use a bridge. And at least three I know of can move a vehicle larger then a dump truck.

 

[Certaindeaf]

When there are simultaneous EMP's, tidal waves, 10.0 earthquakes and blowing mountains, profit!

 

[wired]

Anyone who thinks Portland is going to be cut off from humanity for more than a few weeks is fooling themselves. They'll have the Corps of Engineers /national guard/ regular Army in there within days with REBS's and AVLB's before you can say "Damn, thats pretty cool" .

 

[3MTA3]

Anyone who thinks Portland is going to be cut off from humanity for more than a few weeks is fooling themselves. They'll have the Corps of Engineers /national guard/ regular Army in there within days with REBS's and AVLB's before you can say "Damn, thats pretty cool" .

The damage they are predicting is of a scale far beyond anything the US has encountered. The periodic 9.x Cascadia quake will cause significant destruction along much of the coastal areas in Oregon and Washington. There will be much more than Portland to deal with. Yes, Portland will be prioritized ahead of other areas that will be impacted far greater.

Emergency services has already indicated that after the 9.x hits they won't have the resources to even look for individuals. Also that coastal areas will pretty much be on their own, with the electrical grid taking several years to fully recover.

The short term recovery will not lead to business as usual in Portland. Don't expect any bridges across the Columbia below Cascade locks or perhaps Biggs Junction any time soon - think years. Bridges across the Willamette could be restored in a matter of a few years, but until then likely ferries and even then not immediately.

The impact to business and jobs in the Willamette Valley including Portland will be staggering and I'd expect a significant part of the population to leave.

 

[wired]

Emergency Services , the city and county are just mooching for money. They keep dumping hundreds of millions of dollars into seismic upgrades for historic buildings they know full well will pancake in a 9.2 no matter what they do. Portland, Olympia, Tacoma and everything older than 30-40 years in Seattle will be rubble. The bridges will be the least of anyones worry.

 

[Koda]

Anyone who thinks Portland is going to be cut off from humanity for more than a few weeks is fooling themselves. They'll have the Corps of Engineers /national guard/ regular Army in there within days with REBS's and AVLB's before you can say "Damn, thats pretty cool" .

Emergency Services , the city and county are just mooching for money. They keep dumping hundreds of millions of dollars into seismic upgrades for historic buildings they know full well will pancake in a 9.2 no matter what they do. Portland, Olympia, Tacoma and everything older than 30-40 years in Seattle will be rubble. The bridges will be the least of anyones worry.

these two quotes kinda contradict themselves. The govt isnt going to just show up and throw down a bridge across the Willamette (among all the other places...) and suddenly all be good when there is no roads to those bridges. Can one of those AVLS's even span the Willamette?

I'm voting on the side of its going to be at least a year when even our liberal state govt is telling us to prep thats a clue, even our local media is telling people to prep and be prepared to be on your own for a very long time... Prepare to be on your own in a major Pacific Northwest disaster