More on Ammo shortages

[P7M13]

Puckering... verb or adjective?

Joe

Transitive verb, the action usually involves the tongue or donkus of the person performing the puckering.

 

[arakboss]

I am still seeing an ammo shortage. I can't find any 9mm for less than $10 a box.

 

[Lennie]

Ammo pricing vs. supply is a classic economics 101 lesson on supply and demand.

We need more manufacturing capacity and thus far, no one has been willing to pony up enough capital to make that happen. And with the almost one billion rounds that were imported from Russia each year now missing from the equation, the pricing side of supply and demand will be a challenge to buyers.

 

[GWS]

I am still seeing an ammo shortage. I can't find any 9mm for less than $10 a box.

I'm pretty sure those days are long past for any brass cased 9mm.

 

[CLT65]

Ammo is not in short supply.
Ammo at reasonable retail prices is in short supply.
If you are willing to bend over, and bite your pillow, go to the various auction sites.
You will find the product, but not the price, you seek.

What is short supply then? What if demand doubled again and supply halved, and the price goes up to $100 for a box of generic 9mm?

It's still readily available for those who can pay it; still no shortage?

The reality is that if demand outstrips supply to where prices outrun normal market forces, it's a very real shortage. It doesn't have to be unavailable at any price to be a shortage.

No offense intended, and I don't mean to be contrary; I just scratch my head sometimes whenever I hear someone say "There is no shortage." I think we must have very different understandings of just what defines a shortage.

 

[Lennie]

What is short supply then? What if demand doubled again and supply halved, and the price goes up to $100 for a box of generic 9mm?

It's still readily available for those who can pay it; still no shortage?

The reality is that if demand outstrips supply to where prices outrun normal market forces, it's a very real shortage. It doesn't have to be unavailable at any price to be a shortage.

No offense intended, and I don't mean to be contrary; I just scratch my head sometimes whenever I hear someone say "There is no shortage." I think we must have very different understandings of just what defines a shortage.

Shortage for most people means that the product is not available at a price I want it to be sold at. I think most of that ilk, also, flunked college 101 economics class.

 

[Provincial]

I think college 101 economics now teaches Marxism, instead of real economics. It is no wonder that they don't understand "supply and demand", when they are being taught "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."

When I was in college, I had an economics professor that had a degree from Berkley. I would tease her about being an oxymoron: a Marxist economics professor. She had a sense of humor, and would banter back. She later quit teaching and opened a restaurant! So much for Socialism.

 

[CLT65]

I'd like to buy a new car for $100; there seems to be a shortage of quality automobiles in my price range.

Under normal conditions, factories will produce a product in a quantity that will sell, at a price to make a profit.

If they produce too much, it doesn't all sell and prices drop. Unless production cost decrease they can't make a profit and they go out of business.

If they produce too little, there's not enough to meet demand, prices rise according. The gap between production cost and retail means high profits, which entices more production (new plants, competition). New production comes online until prices stabilize to where there's moderate profit to be made after the cost of production.

When the shelves are bare due to crazy high demand, and middlemen and scalpers are making significant profit, that's a real shortage in economic terms. People who are unable or unwilling to pay triple will go without.

Ideally production would increase to narrow the gap between production cost and retail, but for various reasons that hasn't happened yet to the degree that it would under normal conditions, prolonging the shortage.

One particular vendor at the Rickreall show last weekend didn't have a shortage of good ammo at great prices. By the end of the show his tables were bare.

 

[The Heretic]

I'd like to buy a new car for $100; there seems to be a shortage of quality automobiles in my price range.

I want 30¢ per gallon gas, can't find any anywhere, all the gas stations want $5 per gallon - there seems to be a shortgage?

 

[Alexx1401]

Ammo pricing vs. supply is a classic economics 101 lesson on supply and demand.

We need more manufacturing capacity and thus far, no one has been willing to pony up enough capital to make that happen. And with the almost one billion rounds that were imported from Russia each year now missing from the equation, the pricing side of supply and demand will be a challenge to buyers.

With every panic many ask why "someone" does not just build a new factory. Price being very high they say now is the time. What they don't see is how long it takes to pay for the outlay. There is a LOT of savvy bushiness people with TONS of cash. Always looking for some way to make the cash grow. There is a reason the ones smart enough to have that cash know better than to slap up a factory making something in a panic shortage. They could certainly do this. Double or triple the output. Then what happens is just like the way it was before this panic hit. Shelves are full, no one wants the stuff, factory has to shut down part of the operation and lay off workers.

 

[Provincial]

Ask Christmas Tree growers about boom and bust cycles.

 

[CLT65]

Ask Christmas Tree growers about boom and bust cycles.

Or dairy farmers. When I was growing up on the farm, it was always that way. The price of milk would be high, and the industry publications would all proclaim that this was going to be "the new normal" for the foreseeable future. Good times ahead!

All the farmers would add cows to their milking herds. Within short order, supply would increase significantly, lowering prices to where farmers where going broke. When enough of them went under, supply declined and prices went up, starting the cycle all over again.

 

[arakboss]

In the few stores that I have been in lately there has been ammo on the shelves. Not the selection or prices we had in the glory days but nothing like the empty shelves we saw in 2020. Ammo is coming back, powder is coming back (at least online) and hopefully primers will be back soon too. Check out how many NWFA ammo classifieds have zero replies. That is a sign that ammo is coming back and that buyers are done paying 2020 prices.

 

[Jory45acp]

It's odd with so many recent videos of stores having large stocks of ammo for sale only to see the next video saying ammo is gone again. The ability of social media to drum up panic in society never ceases to amaze me.

 

[The Heretic]

Or dairy farmers. When I was growing up on the farm, it was always that way. The price of milk would be high, and the industry publications would all proclaim that this was going to be "the new normal" for the foreseeable future. Good times ahead!

All the farmers would add cows to their milking herds. Within short order, supply would increase significantly, lowering prices to where farmers where going broke. When enough of them went under, supply declined and prices went up, starting the cycle all over again.

Or pretty much many farmers - one year you do real well because your crop did well, there was demand for it, and prices were profitable because supply was reasonable or even low. The next year, all your neighbors planted the same crop, their crops did real well, and there is a glut in the market of that crop, so everybody barely makes a profit, or losses $ because the prices are so low.

For me, an intermittent tree farmer, I can (or can't anymore) afford to wait years, even decades, for a good market for my timber (in fact, I have to). But when there is that good market, then many of the other tree farms with mature(ish) trees, are logging too - that might or might not drive the price down - depends on how many have mature(ish) trees when the market demand is high (sometimes happens when the supply is low). I was lucky to own the property just at the right time when the trees were mature, marketable and the market price hit a high ($800/mbf for fir, 50-100% for cedar) - pole trees (straight, 6"-10" diameter for at lesat 40', few knots/limbs, not excessive taper) went for as much as $1000-$1200 mbf vs. dimensional lumber at $400-$800 mbf - that surprised me, but now it makes sense; the market demand, and much less processing - they only need to be cut to length and maybe treated, whereas dimensional lumber needs to be cut to dimensions, cured and possibly treated.

Plus, it takes at least 30-40 years for your crop to grow (if it is conifers for dimensional lumber in the PNW) - maybe more or less for trees to be used telephone poles or other poles/posts/etc. Interestingly (sadly IMO), most mills in the PNW can no longer handle large trees (beyond a certain diameter), so if you have a 6' diameter conifer, it has to be shipped farther away to a mill that can still handle that large of a tree.

No more logging on my land - I had my second and last shot at tree farming in 2018 - clear cut the back ten acres, and I don't want to thin the rest any more than I already have. It will be at least 40 years before the replant is loggable and I won't be around for that.

Most of the forest on the property I own was at least 60-80 years old when I had it logged, some of it 120+ years old.

Cedars are not really mature until about 80 years old, which is probably why the cedars on my property were left alone during the clear cut about 60-80 years ago. Some of the stumps, mostly cedar, were 5-6' across - one right by my house took the better part of a day to remove with a saw and a dozer - the outer 2' were rotten, but the inside was still solid.

I remember when I worked in logging for a short time (as a choker setter), we used to have/see "one log loads" on the trucks - i.e., logs so large and heavy, that the truck could only handle one log - that would be a log that was maybe 10-12' in diameter. Even then (50 years ago), that was rather unusual - before my time (my father's time and my grandfather's time - my maternal grandfather was a sawyer in a logging camp back in the steam powered days), it was not at all unusual - many logs were larger in diameter than a tall man. Not many of those giants in the PNW US anymore - except Alaska (and BC which of course is not the USA).

 

[ma96782]

Maybe?
I could feel better about the situation.......
IF I were to invest my own money in a stock of an ammo maker/supplier?
Yeah.....
And don't forget about the dividends (assuming there is one).

Winchester = OLN
Rem, Federal, CCI, Alliant, Speer, etc..... = VSTO
Ammo Inc. = POWW

Aloha, Mark

 

[CLT65]

Or pretty much many farmers - one year you do real well because your crop did well, there was demand for it, and prices were profitable because supply was reasonable or even low. The next year, all your neighbors planted the same crop, their crops did real well, and there is a glut in the market of that crop, so everybody barely makes a profit, or losses $ because the prices are so low.

For me, an intermittent tree farmer, I can (or can't anymore) afford to wait years, even decades, for a good market for my timber (in fact, I have to). But when there is that good market, then many of the other tree farms with mature(ish) trees, are logging too - that might or might not drive the price down - depends on how many have mature(ish) trees when the market demand is high (sometimes happens when the supply is low). I was lucky to own the property just at the right time when the trees were mature, marketable and the market price hit a high ($800/mbf for fir, 50-100% for cedar) - pole trees (straight, 6"-10" diameter for at lesat 40', few knots/limbs, not excessive taper) went for as much as $1000-$1200 mbf vs. dimensional lumber at $400-$800 mbf - that surprised me, but now it makes sense; the market demand, and much less processing - they only need to be cut to length and maybe treated, whereas dimensional lumber needs to be cut to dimensions, cured and possibly treated.

Plus, it takes at least 30-40 years for your crop to grow (if it is conifers for dimensional lumber in the PNW) - maybe more or less for trees to be used telephone poles or other poles/posts/etc. Interestingly (sadly IMO), most mills in the PNW can no longer handle large trees (beyond a certain diameter), so if you have a 6' diameter conifer, it has to be shipped farther away to a mill that can still handle that large of a tree.

No more logging on my land - I had my second and last shot at tree farming in 2018 - clear cut the back ten acres, and I don't want to thin the rest any more than I already have. It will be at least 40 years before the replant is loggable and I won't be around for that.

Most of the forest on the property I own was at least 60-80 years old when I had it logged, some of it 120+ years old.

Cedars are not really mature until about 80 years old, which is probably why the cedars on my property were left alone during the clear cut about 60-80 years ago. Some of the stumps, mostly cedar, were 5-6' across - one right by my house took the better part of a day to remove with a saw and a dozer - the outer 2' were rotten, but the inside was still solid.

I remember when I worked in logging for a short time (as a choker setter), we used to have/see "one log loads" on the trucks - i.e., logs so large and heavy, that the truck could only handle one log - that would be a log that was maybe 10-12' in diameter. Even then (50 years ago), that was rather unusual - before my time (my father's time and my grandfather's time - my maternal grandfather was a sawyer in a logging camp back in the steam powered days), it was not at all unusual - many logs were larger in diameter than a tall man. Not many of those giants in the PNW US anymore - except Alaska (and BC which of course is not the USA).

I understand completely. I know more about farming and logging than I need to anymore.

There was a beautiful piece of family property here in the PNW that I loved, dreamed about living on again some day. I helped my dad log and replant parts of it way back when. There was still a fair amount of mature timber on it, and what we replanted 30 years ago is growing nicely. My dad had said for years that it would probably be my inheritance some day.

Immediately after he passed away year before last, she sold it. She didn't need the money, since it's a very small portion of the land she owns. Part of her reasoning was that she hates Oregon and doesn't want us to live here, and selling the land would break the connection. I'd known every inch of that land since I was old enough to walk and roam the woods, so it hurt pretty bad to see it go. It was hers though, to do with as she pleased. She doesn't owe me anything so I can't really complain.

 

[The Heretic]

I understand completely. I know more about farming and logging than I need to anymore.

There was a beautiful piece of family property here in the PNW that I loved, dreamed about living on again some day. I helped my dad log and replant parts of it way back when. There was still a fair amount of mature timber on it, and what we replanted 30 years ago is growing nicely. My dad had said for years that it would probably be my inheritance some day.

Immediately after he passed away year before last, she sold it. She didn't need the money. Part of her reasoning was that she hates Oregon and doesn't want us to live here, and selling the land would break the connection. I'd known every inch of that land since I was old enough to walk and roam the woods, so it hurt pretty bad to see it go. It was hers though, to do with as she pleased. She doesn't owe me anything so I can't really complain.

I kind of felt the same way about the family farm, especially since I drove by it every day going to work for ten years. Lots of good memories on that farm, but my grandparents have gone and now almost everybody in my dad's generation is gone; one uncle left, other uncle died a month ago, just my brothers and I who grew up on the farm - more or less.

But I understood why my parent's generation (he and his brothers and sister) sold it; they were all getting too old to farm it, and towards the end they just leased out the orchards and were doing nothing with the land on the mountain (my dad cleared that when he was 19, by hand - it was my favorite acreage of the farm - sold it to Ponzi vineyards - big winery there now).

I plan to buy land with my current equity and "build better" on it, and the kids build on it too - hopefully anyway.

This is the way now; more and more farmers selling/leasing family plot acreage to larger owners as the next generation leaves the farms to other endeavors.

 

[The Heretic]

Reportedly, how they buy ammo in Brazil:


Only one manufacturer is allowed to make/sell ammo.

 

[Jay Walk]

As long as Norma doesn't "sell out" to the Corporate Elite.