Is this a bad time to buy silver?

[IronMonster]

I don't agree. Gold and silver have been money for 5000+ years, their Is no comparison to paper money. The Romans, Aztec and a hundred other cultures through out history would differ with your opinion. You may not want silver personally but until man can create it synthetically it will be money

 

[The Heretic]

I don't agree. Gold and silver have been money for 5000+ years, their Is no comparison to paper money. The Romans, Aztec and a hundred other cultures through out history would differ with your opinion. You may not want silver personally but until man can create it synthetically it will be money

They generally had "civilizations" - i.e., it was accepted tender in no small part because there was an economy beyond a barter economy. There was generally government and commerce.

That is a little different than a situation where S*** has hit the fan and people who are used to paying for daily needs with a plastic card in a grocery store now have to transition to bartering for things from individuals in a situation where most people don't have enough food, clean water and maybe not even shelter - and many of them don't know *how* to get those things for themselves without a market economy providing it for them.

Today I may accept paper money or silver or gold or a wire transfer for something I am selling, because I know that I can turn around and get the things I need with that currency. But in a SHTF situation, I will be much less likely to accept something that I can't immediately use to survive without having to trade it to someone else for something I can use. "Long term" eventual use of something like gold or silver makes it less valuable to me because I can't use it to immediately feed or shelter or protect my family. They can't eat PMs, they can't use them for shelter, and I can't use them for ammo to protect or feed them.

The only way I could use PMs in such a situation would be to turn around and trade it to someone else. That means I would have to come down off the mountain, leaving my family at home fending for themselves, risking be robbed and/or killed for my goods, using fuel to get into town - just to trade those PMs for food or services.

In short PMs, just as much as paper currency, rely on their perceived value, not their intrinsic value. They do have less dependence on the stability of the entity backing them, but the intrinsic value is no greater (unless you are somebody who can make them into something of intrinsic value - like maybe a dentist who could use them for fillings).

Personally, if someone came to me wanting to trade metal for food, I would prefer steel or aluminum or lead over silver or gold. The former I have some day to day use for and I know how to make it into immediately useful things and use it for repairing other things.

 

[wired]

People have been waiting for the S to hit the F for a few thousand years. It comes close occasionally but it never quite makes it or at least not for the last few hundred years. People can use whatever assets they like buying survivalist stuff if they like and they can bulk up on (IMHO ) overpriced precious metals and a garage full of food and .22 ammo if it makes them feel good but the chance that the S is going to hit the F is so small its not worth the effort.

 

[The Heretic]

SHTF can mean a lot of different things.

Those of us who live in "first world" countries have to remember that the SHTF for people in third world countries almost every day - or they are living through it - or have survived it and are living in its aftermath.

I also believe we are entering a long term (as in decades) SHTF scenario with climate change, carrying capacity and pollution - all due to overpopulation and our gross abuse of our environment. Most people just don't recognize it yet, and it won't be until the human population starts dying off in the millions that the some will accept that it is happening.

But back to the issue.

As others have said, PMs do have value, but I recommend a lot of other things take priority first.

Probably the most beneficial and at the same time hardest thing to do is to get out of debt. That has helped me and my family a number of times. I went back into debt in order to buy this property, but my goal is that when I retire I will sell this property, buy new property and be out of debt again (or close to it).

Beyond that, once you have a BOL with shelter, and more food than you can use, and more of everything else than you can use - and then some - then, and only then, stock up on PMs.

I don't think I will ever get to that point - I probably have less than 20 to 25 years of lifetime, and only another 5 years of my career left. But I am hopeful that after I retire I will be debt free, and then work towards being more self-sufficient on the property I buy.

 

[Reco]

PM is good if you have extra cash as a security. I saw somewhere that atm the PM market is being heavily suppressed by JP Morgan. They are shorting the market big time and buying millions of ounces of Silver. Reportedly they have like 73 million ounces in vaults. Seems one day they are going to cash that out and let the market correct. Possible to see 50 -100 + silver. Especially since Silver rather then gold is becoming alot more industrial. Just be careful.

 

[The Heretic]

http://survivalcache.com/precious-metals-survival/

 

[IronMonster]

I didn't buy silver with the intent to trade with after the end of the world. I bought silver to hedge against the depreciation or outright collapse of the US dollar. Its only a hedge, I have other investments and plans in place for if the dollar strengthens. I don't see a end of the world as we know it event being likely and if it happens having silver will still be better than having numbers on a computer.

I like gold and silver, My grandfather kept his savings in gold and silver, it served him very well over his 83 years. I think the chance that a few bars of silver will do better than cash stuffed in a box is very high long term and is reasonably good it will do better than a money market account.

 

[tfbit]

Bury a $20 bill and a 1 oz silver round in the ground. If found in 50 years which do you think the guy that digs it up is going to keep and be able to use?

 

[The Heretic]

You hang onto the ounce of silver and let me invest the $20 in the stock market or in real estate.

 

[tfbit]

OK, how about this: Which do you think the average citizen of Venezuela would rather have? 150 Bolívar fuerte or 1 oz of silver?

You hang onto the ounce of silver and let me invest the $20 in the stock market or in real estate.

 

[IronMonster]

You hang onto the ounce of silver and let me invest the $20 in the stock market or in real estate.

You are chastising me saying that silver needs a civilization to have value but you are putting money in the stock market ??

 

[308]

I still don't understand why the PM hawkers are willing to sell us their soon to be sky rocketing precious metals in exchange for all that worthless paper $$

 

[IronMonster]

I still don't understand why the PM hawkers are willing to sell us their soon to be sky rocketing precious metals in exchange for all that worthless paper $$

Because its profitable? That is kind of the point of having a business.

I am sure if they had billions of dollars they would be happy to buy a mountain of silver and sit on a beach someplace but they don't (or at least most of them don't) So they provide a service to a profitable market and turn a profit.

 

[308]

Because its profitable? That is kind of the point of having a business.

I am sure if they had billions of dollars they would be happy to buy a mountain of silver and sit on a beach someplace but they don't (or at least most of them don't) So they provide a service to a profitable market and turn a profit.

I understand that. I also understand how they hype their marketing with suggestions gold will hit $3000, so buy now before it's too late. Well, if it's almost 'too late', why not hold and triple the profit since it will only be a little while. (rhetorical) It's a game, I played it for a while and now I don't.

 

[boogerhook]

My personal opinion is that the stock market will continue to inflate, with a strong dollar, that will drop gold and silver. Once silver drops below 14, I am starting to buy, if it continues to fall, I will buy more. The biggest threat is our ever increasing debt. At some point it will hit government paper. The gov could force IRAs to buy government securities, but that will only last so long... Silver is a good insurance as it is liquid in small denomination.

 

[The Heretic]

You are chastising me saying that silver needs a civilization to have value but you are putting money in the stock market ??

uh yup - my investments went up by $2K yesterday, so I don't feel too bad about it.

 

[IronMonster]

uh yup - my investments went up by $2K yesterday, so I don't feel too bad about it.

In my opinion you have to be nuts to be invested in this over leveraged equities casino. There is very little upside and a very real risk of serious carnage.

That few thousand bucks will be nothing compaired to what you lose if you stay the course.

Really.... Think about getting out. If you need to be in get back in at the bottom. The next year or two you are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

 

[308]

What if I have a retirement account that is guaranteed a minimum 6% rate of return regardless of the up or downswing? Mine posted a bit over 16% rate of return on the annual contract date last year.

Should I bail on that?

 

[IronMonster]

Well since there's no such thing as a stock with a guaranteed return obviously what we're talking about does not apply

 

[308]

Well since there's no such thing as a stock with a guaranteed return obviously what we're talking about does not apply

Actually there is a fund thru Ameriprise Financial Sevices with a guaranteed minimum 6% annual rate of return called SecureSource 4 Plus. I rolled one of my retirement portfolios over there last year. So, yeah, my comment does apply

Edited to add, the newer SS4Plus offers a guaranteed 7% rate of return. Mine is the same, only guaranteed 6% as mentioned.