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Is this a bad time to buy silver?

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by So Low 2, Apr 24, 2016.

  1. So Low 2

    So Low 2 Eugene, Oregon Member

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    I understand its at a high right now. I just want some to put away. My thinking is there is only so much to go around, and its not going to get much better for awhile. Id appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.....
     
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  2. Reno911

    Reno911 Hillsboro Well-Known Member 2015 Volunteer 2016 Volunteer

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    At a high right now!?! It was up to 25 just shy of a few years back and 50 back about 5 years ago.

    My mantra, buy when you can as you can.

    In my eyes silver is not much more than a security currency if things get really poopy. As an investment, I call BS. I'd rather invest in lead and things that make lead go fast. However having something to barter with in a bad version of the future, I'd call silver my friend.
     
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  3. jbett98

    jbett98 NW Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    High was at $46.08 in 2011. Just recently it had bottomed out at $13.88.
    You also have to consider the dealers markup, which is around .40 cents an ounce whether you're buying or selling.
    My advice is to have a hobby that makes you extra non taxable cash that you can use to free yourself from any and all debt.
     
  4. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    Economics 101: buy low, sell high
     
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  5. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    FWIW - I do not own any PMs.

    I own real estate and equities

    So far, over the past 15 years, I have been in the red sometimes, but mostly in the black with equities. Right now, and for the past 5+ years, I have been in the black, and increasingly so.

    Real estate, which I bought 3+ years ago at a low, has gone up and up and up.

    I have also been investing heavily in durable goods, guns, ammo, etc.

    I have also bought short and long term storage foods.

    YMMV, but IMO, if paper money becomes useless, so will PMs, as I would not accept them as payment - I can't eat or otherwise use gold or silver as anything except a payment medium based of faith of its value, just like paper money - there has to be some kind of long term economy for it to work that way.
     
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  6. Reno911

    Reno911 Hillsboro Well-Known Member 2015 Volunteer 2016 Volunteer

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    in the initial outbreak of chaos, would you say silver would be better to trade than dollars? If such a time were to arise?

    Just saying, walking into a corner store at the beginning or a day or two in from an event with a few coins of silver may get you a few packs a jerky your dollars wouldn't.

    Just my thoughts really, but thought I would ask for your opinion on them.
     
  7. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    For some period of time - who is to say how long - depending on the situation, you will still be able to use paper money in any SHTF situation.

    IMO, it depends on how long term the situation seems to everybody, and whether they are holding out hope for the ability of the government to stay in place.

    Since I don't put much stock (pun intended) in the theory of worldwide socio-economic collapse that lasts long term without restoration of some kind of government, I prepare for:

    1) Common short term emergencies; wind storms, floods, wildfires, etc.

    2) Much less common and longer term emergencies; a large Cascadian earthquake which would cause serious problems for years, but the rest of the country would still be there, and therefore the paper dollar would still be worth something (although the economy would surely take a major hit).

    3) The long term situation of over-population/carrying capacity issues, etc., which will eventually result in a large die off of the human population, but the paper dollar will still probably be worth something, but my land, and the ability to grow food on that land, will be worth a lot more. At that point, I will probably be dead or quite old (I am in my sixties now), but my kids will need the wealth I have put away to pay taxes and buy things they can't raise on my land.

    I've been prepping for over 40 years now. I've heard the TEOTWAWKI predictions of imminent socio-economic collapse for over 40 years. Those were what got me started. But they are not what keeps me going. I have taken the long term view. Today, for the short term, I prepare for retirement in 5 years or so, possible job loss in the years before retirement.

    I could retire tomorrow if I just wanted to just survive my retirement, but I want to enjoy it, and I want my kids to be able to almost survive anything probable that gets thrown at them.

    They don't have my advantage of a pretty good income, and they have a few things holding them back that I don't - so I am prepping for them; most of my retirement funds will go to them - I am just trying to get to the point now where, when I retire, I won't have a mortgage, I will have the almost self-sustainable land and residence I want for myself and for my kids if they need it, and the funds for my kids to live on after I am gone.

    If, OTOH, there is a sudden SHTF scenario where paper dollars are worthless in the long term, then I have my land and house and shop - which you won't be able to buy from me with any amount of PMs.

    YMMV
     
  8. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    I will say, that I do buy and store some durable goods mostly for barter.

    Knives for example. I know most people have some kind of knife in their house, even if it is just a paring knife. But many people don't have a good folding knife, much less a good sheath knife. I have a number of neighbors that I could barter such goods for labor and/or their skills (e.g., one of my neighbors is a doctor and surgeon, several are much better hunters than I am, although I imagine those have good knives, I bet they don't have as much ammo as I do).

    For me, something that is of immediate use, such as a shovel, or other tool, is of more use than a precious metal.
     
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  9. Bealzybub

    Bealzybub Portland Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    Hard to keep a chainsaw and a couple pipe wrenches in yer coin purse though...........
     
  10. AMProducts

    AMProducts Maple Valley, WA Jerk, Ammo Manufacturer Silver Supporter

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    The big question when it comes to PM investing is what's your point? Making money? Wealth Protection?

    The thing is, all PM's are a commodity, just like oil, corn, or orange juice concentrate. They are openly traded and futures sold so the people that produce these things can essentially get a "put" on whatever they're producing. This really only happens when you have a commodity that's universally the same no matter where or who produces it. Gold is always gold, silver is always silver, wheat is always wheat etc. This is how commodity trading works, futures allow a producer and the market to agree on a set price for the goods produced before they are produced. The function of this, especially in something like farming or mining allows a producer to cover input costs. However, this means that if demand spikes, or supply drops, the person who purchased the future gets the profits.

    Unlike say corn or crude oil, and except certain metals in certain circumstances (silver, platinum, palladium etc) precious metals, especially gold have very limited use, thus the only fluctuation on price is going to be related either to supply and demand, however since mining generally moves to meet demand, demand is the major driver of the cost of gold, and in most cases silver as well. When economic times are good, the main consumption of PMs is for luxury items, which may keep costs high. The other driver is when people fear the debasement of the currency. However purchasing PMs to shelter wealth through some kind of currency storm assumes that the currency will come back, and that gold can be again traded for currency.

    Much like the bible parable about the three servants, you're burying your money in the ground when you buy gold. If the value of the commodity drops, you're stuck with it unless you're willing to take a loss. However, if you take that money, and buy things that you can use to produce more things, like a computer if you're a writer or software engineer, tools with which you build a house or practice a trade, or even something knowledge based (an educational degree for yourself, a spouse, child etc) you are far better off.

    In general, one of my favorite things to do when I have "excess money" is to offer a tuition loan or grant to extended friends or family. I usually offer this for certification courses, so a friend of mine was thinking about taking the EMT class, but he didn't have the cash for tuition or books. Now I have another friend who is an EMT, and all of my money back.

    If you want to buy silver for the sake of buying silver to enjoy, by all means do so. The most important asset you have is your health. Make sure all of your investment strategies are geared towards protecting this asset.
     
  11. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    I don't have a coin purse, and I wouldn't be hauling much PMs around even if I had them - if I did, they would be in an ammo box.

    In a SHTF situation I am not going to be making very many trips down off my mountain into any place where I would be spending whatever passes for money. Indeed, if things are that bad that paper money is worthless, I think I would not be doing much if any traveling at all.

    YMMV
     
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  12. The Heretic

    The Heretic Oregon Well-Known Member

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    The best investment I have made was investing in myself - the time and effort to become an engineer. First it was a community college education A.S. in EE, which got my foot in the door in the tech industry, then I taught myself programming. I continue to learn new tech and best practices to improve my skills and experience, even though I will be retiring in a few years.

    There is a saying in software engineering that applies in most of life; "evolve or die".
     
  13. AndyinEverson

    AndyinEverson Everson, Wa. Well-Known Member

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    Having worked at a pawn shop before , I can say that the seller usually thinks his item is worth way more than what the buyer wants to pay.
    This may be the case with any "investment".
    I like the idea of "investing" in knowledge or skills and items that will always be needed.
    Things like a well equipped home , food , water , all of your basic needs etc ...
    And the ways and means of keeping the things you hold dear safe and with you ,would seem to me to be a better investment than silver.
    Andy
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2016
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  14. 308

    308 ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ ΜOΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ Platinum Supporter Silver Supporter

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    Zero debt is better than gold or silver.
     
  15. twa2471

    twa2471 Vermont Active Member

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    I'd invested in silver way back when it was in the 5-6 buck range and sold some @ the 45+ range which covered my initial investment very well and hardly made a dent in what I still have.
    But then I have 0 bills other than normal day to day expenses and no loans outstanding. Also have a good stock of food, ammo , guns ect. and everything else I'd possibly need if things went South. That is the only time to invest in PM's otherwise IMHO.

    It has treated me well over the years and still hold around 80 lbs of it.
    Hell worst case I can always use it for "bollets" after I run out of the about 1500 lbs of lead sail boat keel I salvaged years back !!!
    Ya never know when a vampire is going to come knocking at the door though,,,;):s0112::s0112:

    But seriously, if you don't have everything paid off and have good survival supplies,,don't get any PM's, buy supplies first. Then only in smaller denominations which will be better for barter as opposed to 5 or 10oz bars. Scrap/junk quality 90% silver coins are a good investment also being less per oz over spot with smaller bars being 2nd best.
     
  16. PaulB47

    PaulB47 Hillsboro Well-Known Member

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    I'd say, if you don't have any, then get some. It increases your options. No need to go overboard though, as there are other things to spend money on too.

    It's all well and good to say, "Get X, Y and Z before you get silver." What if you have X, Y and Z, but what you really need for the particular situation you are in, is W? That's what a medium of exchange is for - the fact you can never get every possible thing you might need in all situations.

    Go ahead and get the things that are useful in a variety of situations - food, ammo, water, etc. But get some silver too.

    I will say that common ammo might work just as well for this exchange purpose as having silver, and it has utility in itself. Might make even more sense to get a case of .22LR (assuming you can find it these days) than to get silver.
     
  17. Bealzybub

    Bealzybub Portland Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    I guess I just havent been able to come up with that endless supply of fresh milk, sugar, medicines etc. I can pretty much guarantee I've got as many or more skills as just about anyone else but watching a sick loved one die off or worse because I thought ammo and MRE's was all I was gonna need (no form of bartering currency). But of course you all have your plans and thats good. Mine just doesnt include thinking I have everything I need to where I can lock myself inside a structure and live for an indefinite period of time supporting family, women, children, etc.
     
  18. mjbskwim

    mjbskwim Salmon,Idaho Well-Known Member

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    So I'm talking to this guy at the local store and he tells me about this financial seminar he went to.
    The speaker says
    Gold hasn't gone up at all over the years. When they gold coin was first minted it would buy a man a pair of boots,trousers,a shirt,coat and hat.
    That same coin will buy you the same thing today
    Guns and ammo;)
    Oh yeah food and water
     
  19. Bealzybub

    Bealzybub Portland Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    The way I heard it was a cheap suit a cheap car and a meal.
     
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  20. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    Gold and silver is what you change your dollars into once you have everything else in order. Really until you have no debt, all the guns, ammo and food you need and a paid for chunk of land its probably silly to sink "savings" into gold and silver. Precious metals are a way to lock up value long term. Most of the time they are a poor short term "investment'

    To answer your original question, No. Its not a bad time to buy silver. At $17 it is still well below the 5 year average. It might visit lower prices again in the near future, it might not. It might be $13 in a month or it might be $25. Based on history though if you are going to buy, buying when the price is below the 5 year moving average you are doing fine.
     
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