How bad is the firearms industry downturn?

[Koda]

I've been poor a number of times and I know that there is a point where you cannot make ends meet, much less have enough to buy a gun, not to mention save money for a rainy day, which they probably need more than a gun.

I know people who are not making ends meet now, not even close, because of circumstances beyond their control.

Shelter, food and health come first. When your (or your kids) medicine and doctor appts. costs $1K a month, your rent is $500+, your food is $200 a month, your car expenses are $100 a month to get to work, your utilities are $200 a month or more because you live in N. Dakota and it is cold, your income is $2K per month before taxes from working two jobs, and you are a single mother with a deadbeat ex., you can't afford a gun - you are not affording your basic living expenses.

You just keep racking up the debt.

When your 20 year old car breaks, you are screwed.

There are a lot of people in this position.

I agree with you on this, its true the last thing they need to worry about is buying a gun. I just support the idea that affordable guns should be available. The thought that the gun industry might be in a down turn might mean someone can afford a new gun...

But your right that doesn't have anything to do with people in the situation you describe.

Ill go back on topic now.

 

[U8395279]

The entire economy is in a downturn. It has been a long time since the US economy has been healthy.

If our economy was not in such a mess, a political outsider like Trump would never have been elected President a few months ago. But both of the major parties were acting as if everything in our nation is hunky-dory. So people turned to Trump instead.

I suspect that this year is going to see another major economic crash. It will probably be even worse than what we experienced in 2008.

So hold onto your hats. When the bubblegum really his the fan, only God knows what will happen.

Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock
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[Caveman Jim]

Everybody's pretty much said it here, just enjoy it while it lasts. Things will even out eventually and more than likely swing back the other way.

It is good on the federal outlook but the left Coast is only getting vicious because their candidate lost. Look at Washington the last few months since the legislative session opened, there were a dozen anti gun bills proposed, what does that tell ya? The bills that didn't pass by the legislators will certainly be put on initiatives and I've been told by one rep that they will pass!!!!
Get ready for a real shltstorms, folks & get to work.

 

[Diamondback]

Given that the Legislature has claimed Preemption (gun laws its exclusive domain) wouldn't that be grounds to challenge an initiative too, alongside the unequivocal Shall Not Be Impaired language of the state constitution?

 

[Hawaiian]

The gun and ammo manufactures saw many missed sales when the last panic wiped out the inventory and they increased production and inventory expecting the same panic run. Can't blame them, we all expected it also. However, it would not have been like the last run as most of us learned our lesson and bought what we needed well before the election.

The next run will be on suppressors if the HPA passes. If you really want a specific model, and don't want to wait, you would be better to go ahead and buy it now, including paying the tax and going through the hassle, as it will take quite awhile for the manufactures to catch up with demand when anyone can walk into a store and buy one off the shelf. Supply and demand will also increase prices in the short term when inventories are wiped out. If you are looking to cash in on this, start making drop in threaded barrels. They will be in huge demand. IMHO.

 

[P7M13]

To me, the notion is absurd that, if you buy a gun it should always sell for what you paid.
Companies ramped up in response to the great hoarding, and with the pressure from Obama, the demand was artificially sustained.
Those who hedged or managed themselves well, fiscally, will be OK. The rest, bye bye. In a decade, we will probably look back at this as the salad days of inexpensive, quality ARs. Face it, though, they are a common commodity and highly susceptible to market fluctuations.
Precision rifles and high end pistols are not as susceptible, and companies with that as a core focus will probably continue as they have.
I note from memory, McGowen Barrels used to have a 26 week lead time back in 2014, I bought a barrel in December of 2015 and it was 16 weeks. I noted from their site the other day, the lead time is now 11 weeks. To me, that means demand is coming down.

 

[CoastRange57]

The entire economy is in a downturn. It has been a long time since the US economy has been healthy.

If our economy was not in such a mess, a political outsider like Trump would never have been elected President a few months ago. But both of the major parties were acting as if everything in our nation is hunky-dory. So people turned to Trump instead.

I suspect that this year is going to see another major economic crash. It will probably be even worse than what we experienced in 2008.

So hold onto your hats. When the bubblegum really his the fan, only God knows what will happen.

Government Debt in the United States - Debt Clock
.

There is more money starting to flow into the economy than there has been in years. That may create some inflationary pressures, but over all there is going to be a honeymoon period for Trump. The divisions in our economy will not be cured overnight. There has been 8 years of no confidence in our economy and business doing what they had to do to survive.

The economy was a big issue in the election but not the main issue. I personally know about 4 people who have put over 6 million dollars back in the market in the last 60 days, that have had that money sitting on the side for the last 4 to 5 years. They are not doing so because the likely hood of a catastrophic market crash between 8 am and noon on any given day is not going to happen.

The greatest danger in our economy is from government agencies with huge under funded pension liabilities ( sup PERS ??), and from crumbling infrastructure that they will not be able to sell bonds to repair, and from their inabilities to provide the services they need to because their labor costs will be so high for fewer employees provindg fewer and fewer services. If your governments start crumbling, there goes 35% ( or more) of your economy and that will start an unrecoverable fall to that point. Of course, governments will just keep applying Ponzi scheme style types of funding to kick the can down the road another 10 years, but that time frame is getting tighter all he time.

Restoring some level of a manufacturing economy in the US would help a lot, but I fear that crack pipe has been smoked and then smashed on the sidewalk of the demand for cheap consumer goods and the docks of foreign container ships.

 

[EPS]

So Trump has been a turning point for preservation of firearms rights but it has been a real double edge sword for the industry. Silencer Co has laid off half its employees, Olympic Arms is shutting down,most if not all firearms companies stock values have dropped if not plummeted. The number of BGC per month has tanked.

I have noticed a "yuuge" trend in the black rifle parts market. I suspect many companies tooled up and cranked out gobbs of stuff anticipating a Hillary win and now are trying to blow stuff out to recoup the investment. Thing is this is forcing a depressed market even further down.

Again, I think it's a good thing for the enthusiast today, but in the bigger picture I am worried about the longer term effects. Manufacturers are going to fold, distributors fail and in the end we will be left with fewer choices and a smaller industry.

The sheer amount of black rifle bits that are in inventory and the almost 180deg shift in the buying patterns of that demographic I fear will result in a very long cycle to equalize the supply/demand curve. To wit, it's gonna cripple many of the small shops that have innovative products, the guys pushing much of the industry forward.

I have bought a lot of stuff in the last 6 months because of this firesale. I have stocked up on what is probably a lifetime of parts. Now though I am beginning to realize that this pile of stuff that I have always looked at as an asset I could liquidate if I got in a pinch would be difficult to convert to cash without taking a big hit.

I have 5.56 ammo for sale locally @ $225/1000 for a month now with no interest. I have had 4 new unfired AR's listed at 75% of what the parts cost (one at less than $500) with no interest. These are not junk or special hard to move rifles, built with good parts on Aero and SSA lowers. No different than rifles I have sold for close to twice what I am asking in the past.

So what do you think, is this a short correction that will run its course in 6 months to a year or is this the new normal? Has the "black rifle fad" run its course sort of like the custom chopper fad that resulted in being able to buy a $50,000 motorcycle for $8,500? That market has never recovered and probably will not in the next decade at least.

What where are you at that you have 5.56 for $225 for a thousand

 

[Ura-Ki]

This is a golden opportunity before us, We have more choices now then ever before, and the prices are dropping to about where they should be. It may only last for Trumps first turn, but if a person is careful, it should be good. Where I see this especially good is the non AR world, I can once again buy parts and "Kit's" for builds at decent prices, and decent shipping rates and times. I am able to stock up on much needed reloading components that have been hard or expensive to find, and bulk ammo for practice is coming down as we speak! AT some point, this will find it's bottom, and we just bump along with it as happy as clams. My barrel maker is still a consistent 6 months out as he always has been. I got my last barrel in under 1 month, Just because I have bought several barrels from him, otherwise I would be the same as ever one else!!! Something to consider, supporting a niche market supplier with your business helps keep them in business and in return they support you with your projects!

 

[U8395279]

There is more money starting to flow into the economy than there has been in years. That may create some inflationary pressures, but over all there is going to be a honeymoon period for Trump. The divisions in our economy will not be cured overnight. There has been 8 years of no confidence in our economy and business doing what they had to do to survive.

The economy was a big issue in the election but not the main issue. I personally know about 4 people who have put over 6 million dollars back in the market in the last 60 days, that have had that money sitting on the side for the last 4 to 5 years. They are not doing so because the likely hood of a catastrophic market crash between 8 am and noon on any given day is not going to happen.

The greatest danger in our economy is from government agencies with huge under funded pension liabilities ( sup PERS ??), and from crumbling infrastructure that they will not be able to sell bonds to repair, and from their inabilities to provide the services they need to because their labor costs will be so high for fewer employees provindg fewer and fewer services. If your governments start crumbling, there goes 35% ( or more) of your economy and that will start an unrecoverable fall to that point. Of course, governments will just keep applying Ponzi scheme style types of funding to kick the can down the road another 10 years, but that time frame is getting tighter all he time.

Restoring some level of a manufacturing economy in the US would help a lot, but I fear that crack pipe has been smoked and then smashed on the sidewalk of the demand for cheap consumer goods and the docks of foreign container ships.

Michael Pento strongly disagrees with you, and has very convincing arguments here:

Op-Ed: A recession is overdue. Here's what will trigger it

Since WWII, the average growth period without having a recession has been 5 years. We have now had 7 straight years without going into a recession. It is going to eventually happen.

On January 20, 2009, when President Obama was sworn in, the Federal debt was $10.626 trillion. On January 20, 2017, it was $19.947 trillion. Obama nearly doubled our national debt. When the next recession hits, it will probably be another "great recession", and the Federal government will not be in any position to go further into debt, in order to stimulate the economy. The national debt already is more than $60,000 for every man, woman, and child in our country. And that is all on top of the mess that many state governments are currently in, as you have noted.

No doubt Democrats will ignore basic facts, and put all the blame on Trump when the next recession hits.
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[The Heretic]

Michael Pento strongly disagrees with you, and has very convincing arguments here:

Op-Ed: A recession is overdue. Here's what will trigger it

Since WWII, the average growth period without having a recession has been 5 years. We have now had 7 straight years without going into a recession. It is going to eventually happen.

On January 20, 2009, when President Obama was sworn in, the Federal debt was $10.626 trillion. On January 20, 2017, it was $19.947 trillion. Obama nearly doubled our national debt. When the next recession hits, it will probably be another "great recession", and the Federal government will not be in any position to go further into debt, in order to stimulate the economy. The national debt already is more than $60,000 for every man, woman, and child in our country. And that is all on top of the mess that many state governments are currently in, as you have noted.

No doubt Democrats will ignore basic facts, and put all the blame on Trump when the next recession hits.
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All the doomsayers have their favorite theory/statistic/etc. to say why we are going to be in a downturn "any day now". I have a thread on another prepper forum called "threads of doom" where I collect threads, over the years, claiming that we are doomed for whatever reason. I started the thread in 2011.

Last year I got a bit panicked. My employer was talking about big layoffs (they still are, but my team is expanding and has projects tentatively funded well into next year), and I had just read an article about how the stock market is overdue for a correction (I think it still is).

So I moved from 80/20 equity/bonds to 80/20 bonds/equity. The stock market took off and I missed that big increase - of course.

That said, I still think it is overheated and due for a correction. I think once reality sets in about how Trump's policies will affect trade, then we will see all kinds of problems. Plus my family hit some bad luck and I had to chip in with some help - fortunately I was able to without much pain.

Everybody has their favorite theory about the stock market and the economy. It is kind of like the people who "have a system" for playing the lottery or going to Vegas.

Humans are risk adverse. We will be more likely to avoid a 10% loss than we will invest in something that has an equal chance of a 20% gain.

 

[H2O MAN]

For the vast majority of Americans, today's economy is in better shape that it's been in over 8 years thanks to Trump being elected. It's a buyers market in much of the gun industry... if you have the means, you should stock up on what you like sooner than later.

 

[IronMonster]

Well like many of you I think the US, hell the global economy, is a propped up lie. We are due for a downturn and I personally think it will be severe and I think it is exactly right that Trump will get the blame even though it's the last 16 years that have got us to this point. Things seem great but it's because we borrowed the prosperity with historic low interest rates, 20 trillion in world wide fiat currency created and 30 trillion new new world wide government debt. We papered over the problem with funny money which works... till it doesn't. When it quits working the true nature of the world economy will become apparent.

I am trying to prepare for this, buying firearms and ammo was part of that prep. I am beginning to think though that because so many other people in the last 5 years did the same that the stockpile will not be the security I thought it was. If it is purely an economic down turn people won't be excited about ammo or gun barter, people will be worried about making mortgage payments and putting food on the table, Not to mention the retail market will continue the decline meaning retail ammo and firearms prices will slide at the same time many of us might want to try and convert that ammo into food or a truck payment.

The other thing I want to make clear is I am not complaining. I am all for the free market and letting it find its own equilibrium. What I am doing is commenting, making observations and trying to guess the future. Guns and ammo are not the only things I put up for a rainy day and if the firearms market implodes I am not dependent on selling stuff to get by but you know how it is, a guy feels better when what he has is strong rather than weak.

 

[Juggernaut]

I wouldn't worry about having too many ARs, you'll really only want to carry one anyways. The 2nd Regiment Idaho Volunteers will have a long march to support the Jefferson State Irregulars siege of Sacramento...

 

[ArgentineSteel]

There should be an AR in every gun rack and in every gun safe!!!!! Open new Singer and Craftsman plants building nothing but US made ARs.

Brutus Out

Just one? Where would I keep all the others?

 

[Diamondback]

I wouldn't worry about having too many ARs, you'll really only want to carry one anyways. The 2nd Regiment Idaho Volunteers will have a long march to support the Jefferson State Irregulars siege of Sacramento...

Hopefully starting with the invasion and liberation of WA and OR along the way.

 

[EPS]

Hopefully starting with the invasion and liberation of WA and OR along the way.

By the time WA and OR are liberated you could for get about CA you just set up on the border because Mexico would taken over So Cal

 

[Diamondback]

By the time WA and OR are liberated you could for get about CA you just set up on the border because Mexico would taken over So Cal

I was just thinking that they have to have some path from ID to Sacramento...

 

[U8395279]

Well like many of you I think the US, hell the global economy, is a propped up lie. We are due for a downturn and I personally think it will be severe and I think it is exactly right that Trump will get the blame even though it's the last 16 years that have got us to this point.

The mainstream news media will do everything in its power to convince the American people that it will all be Trump's fault. However, these are new times, and perhaps today's mainstream news media does not have the influence that people like Walter Cronkite, Harry Reasoner, Howard K Smith, and David Brinkley used to have decades ago. The recent election would seem to indicate that the birth of the Internet and Social Media has changed the information landscape radically.

Things seem great but it's because we borrowed the prosperity with historic low interest rates, 20 trillion in world wide fiat currency created and 30 trillion new new world wide government debt. We papered over the problem with funny money which works... till it doesn't. When it quits working the true nature of the world economy will become apparent.

That is the problem. The current way of doing things is not at all sustainable. The Federal government's debt at the end of 2015 was equivalent to 104.17 percent of our country's Gross Domestic Product in 2015. Yes, you heard that right. The US national debt is now more than the value of all goods and services created in our country in a year.

Greece went down this road before we did, and by 2014 their national debt was equal to 180 percent of their GDP. At that point, the country became bankrupt. At some point in time, the USA has to stop going deeper into debt. Otherwise, we will face the same day of reckoning that Greece did.

 

[EPS]

The mainstream news media will do everything in its power to convince the American people that it will all be Trump's fault. However, these are new times, and perhaps today's mainstream news media does not have the influence that people like Walter Cronkite, Harry Reasoner, Howard K Smith, and David Brinkley used to have decades ago. The recent election would seem to indicate that the birth of the Internet and Social Media has changed the information landscape radically.





That is the problem. The current way of doing things is not at all sustainable. The Federal government's debt at the end of 2015 was equivalent to 104.17 percent of our country's Gross Domestic Product in 2015. Yes, you heard that right. The US national debt is now more than the value of all goods and services created in our country in a year.

Greece went down this road before we did, and by 2014 their national debt was equal to 180 percent of their GDP. At that point, the country became bankrupt. At some point in time, the USA has to stop going deeper into debt. Otherwise, we will face the same day of reckoning that Greece did.

If you believe anything the media tells you I'm sorry but you are a fool unless you see it with your own eyes it's fake news lol