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So Trump has been a turning point for preservation of firearms rights but it has been a real double edge sword for the industry. Silencer Co has laid off half its employees, Olympic Arms is shutting down,most if not all firearms companies stock values have dropped if not plummeted. The number of BGC per month has tanked.

I have noticed a "yuuge" trend in the black rifle parts market. I suspect many companies tooled up and cranked out gobbs of stuff anticipating a Hillary win and now are trying to blow stuff out to recoup the investment. Thing is this is forcing a depressed market even further down.

Again, I think it's a good thing for the enthusiast today, but in the bigger picture I am worried about the longer term effects. Manufacturers are going to fold, distributors fail and in the end we will be left with fewer choices and a smaller industry.

The sheer amount of black rifle bits that are in inventory and the almost 180deg shift in the buying patterns of that demographic I fear will result in a very long cycle to equalize the supply/demand curve. To wit, it's gonna cripple many of the small shops that have innovative products, the guys pushing much of the industry forward.

I have bought a lot of stuff in the last 6 months because of this firesale. I have stocked up on what is probably a lifetime of parts. Now though I am beginning to realize that this pile of stuff that I have always looked at as an asset I could liquidate if I got in a pinch would be difficult to convert to cash without taking a big hit.

I have 5.56 ammo for sale locally @ $225/1000 for a month now with no interest. I have had 4 new unfired AR's listed at 75% of what the parts cost (one at less than $500) with no interest. These are not junk or special hard to move rifles, built with good parts on Aero and SSA lowers. No different than rifles I have sold for close to twice what I am asking in the past.

So what do you think, is this a short correction that will run its course in 6 months to a year or is this the new normal? Has the "black rifle fad" run its course sort of like the custom chopper fad that resulted in being able to buy a $50,000 motorcycle for $8,500? That market has never recovered and probably will not in the next decade at least.
 
The Black Rifle market enjoyed a "yuuge" upturn in the market, and many re-invested in that run continuing under HRC. It's a buyers market right now under Trump, but inventories will shrink, the market will adjust, and the strong companies will survive. The gun market itself is healthy.
 
So Trump has been a turning point for preservation of firearms rights but it has been a real double edge sword for the industry. Silencer Co has laid off half its employees, Olympic Arms is shutting down,most if not all firearms companies stock values have dropped if not plummeted. The number of BGC per month has tanked.

I have noticed a "yuuge" trend in the black rifle parts market. I suspect many companies tooled up and cranked out gobbs of stuff anticipating a Hillary win and now are trying to blow stuff out to recoup the investment. Thing is this is forcing a depressed market even further down.

Again, I think it's a good thing for the enthusiast today, but in the bigger picture I am worried about the longer term effects. Manufacturers are going to fold, distributors fail and in the end we will be left with fewer choices and a smaller industry.

The sheer amount of black rifle bits that are in inventory and the almost 180deg shift in the buying patterns of that demographic I fear will result in a very long cycle to equalize the supply/demand curve. To wit, it's gonna cripple many of the small shops that have innovative products, the guys pushing much of the industry forward.

I have bought a lot of stuff in the last 6 months because of this firesale. I have stocked up on what is probably a lifetime of parts. Now though I am beginning to realize that this pile of stuff that I have always looked at as an asset I could liquidate if I got in a pinch would be difficult to convert to cash without taking a big hit.

I have 5.56 ammo for sale locally @ $225/1000 for a month now with no interest. I have had 4 new unfired AR's listed at 75% of what the parts cost (one at less than $500) with no interest. These are not junk or special hard to move rifles, built with good parts on Aero and SSA lowers. No different than rifles I have sold for close to twice what I am asking in the past.

So what do you think, is this a short correction that will run its course in 6 months to a year or is this the new normal? Has the "black rifle fad" run its course sort of like the custom chopper fad that resulted in being able to buy a $50,000 motorcycle for $8,500? That market has never recovered and probably will not in the next decade at least.

I think it will be a relatively short term. Administrations change and with that comes the risk of politicians that view the Constitution as a living breathing document that needs to be modified to support the anti right views they hold. Plus if you live on the West coast we already have those politicians and they have proven they hate our RTBA.
 
I'm thinking it's going to be a while before things even out. The larger manufacturers are going to be the ones that do the best in dealing with this and the little ones, well, not so much.
I've noticed a lot more ammo on the shelves, which really does show how much people were hoarding. Heck, I've seen large batches of 22 LR ammo for sale at reasonable prices. Bullets, powder and primers? Not a problem. Find em all now.
Great time to be buying.
I don't think the black rifle trend is over, but since the threat of heavy handed Government regulations is gone (at least for now) no one feels pushed to get one before they can't.
I just got my first AR. Great gun for a small price. Glad I waited.:D
 
I think that this is just like anything else. Giving some time it will run its course and things will stabilize. The market will get stronger and better. As for your ammo I'd be happy to take it if you come to portland for a visit.
 
8 years ago the housing market was totally tanked. Today in this area if a house is on the market a month it must be because its have burn down and the lots been flooded.

Business changes constantly but business goes on. After all they still make Buggy whips.
 
The suppressor manufacturers are dealing with the HPA - a lot of people are holding off to see if it passes, and if it does you can expect everybody and their dogs to jump in making/selling suppressors.

Personally, I would be careful in assuming that the Trump admin will be there for us past 2018. I expect a backlash among liberals and a turn around in Congress in the 2018 elections. Then there is the state legislatures which is where the gun control lobby has turned their attention.

In short, buy now while you can, this is the calm before the storm.

If Trump lasts 4 years without being impeached, then I can retire and take up legal residency in N. Dakota and take my firearms off the books. Then I will deal with whatever the 2020 elections bring.
 
Honestly, it's about time it became a buyers market. After eight years of price gouging, it's about time shooters got a break...

Think about it, 6 months ago Federal Match .22 boxes of 325 we're going for 25.00 a 30.00/box, this past week Bi-Mart had them for 18.97... That's up
to a 30% price difference...

I say thank God for the relief, it's about time...

And it true, the ammo shelves are filling back up again... Again Bi-Mart this past week...
image.jpeg
 
There are a few factors at play here;
-Federally things might look bright but at state levels, not so much. I'm still trying to educate my friends about what's at stake and most are really surprised at what type of legislation is on the books or in the pipe. We can still make the "get 'em while you can" argument.
-The gun-hating left is super pissed right now. I expect all future election cycles to be dirtier than the one before. If/when the pendulum swings the other way it's going to be really ugly for 2A, along with many other freedoms.
-While I appreciate the fact that manufacturers ramped up in anticipation of an oppressive HRC regime, maybe some of the current slump is on them.
-It only takes one yambag to ruin it for everyone else. A high profile shooting always seems to give a bunch of people who claim to be 2A friendly a sudden case of "common sense".

I'll probably continue to take advantage of some of the great deals. As inventory dwindles, prices will creep back up. For now I'll just continue to get more friends into the hobby/sport/lifestyle.
 
It's always something. As I mentioned before, a coworker's kid was forcibly removed by his wife's felon ex. The police were called but they got there too late and it's all now at a leisurely pace in the courts.
They are gun shopping now. People are waking up. The reality of self protection is a hard sell but people will catch on sooner or later.
 
It's good and bad.
The good is there's more certainty and confidence in the market. So more companies are being more adventerous in their marketing and innovation.

They are keeping proces smaller and coming out with new products.
They are also seeing a large up swing in sales due to more people getting into the sport or ideas of self defense.

However, the bad is they have more competition and the panick buying has stopped. So their huge sales blow outs pre-election have ceased. But I think the overall market has gained momentum.

In the end it will be better for the 2A community.
With incidents like the Florida nightclub shooting, the shooting in San Bernadino, and all the other social issues plaguing America (civil unrest, BLM) and just the media glorifiying the violence in America people are becoming more scared and more aware.
 
Honestly, it's about time it became a buyers market. After eight years of price gouging, it's about time shooters got a break...

Think about it, 6 months ago Federal Match .22 boxes of 325 we're going for 25.00 a 30.00/box, this past week Bi-Mart had them for 18.97... That's up
to a 30% price difference...

I say thank God for the relief, it's about time...

And it true, the ammo shelves are filling back up again... Again Bi-Mart this past week...
View attachment 343905

Local BiMart had a bunch of .22lr... I was shocked!!!
 
The Black Rifle market enjoyed a "yuuge" upturn in the market, and many re-invested in that run continuing under HRC. It's a buyers market right now under Trump, but inventories will shrink, the market will adjust, and the strong companies will survive. The gun market itself is healthy.

Agreed, capitalism is generally self governed by supply and demand. I am not sad to see a plain jane AR that people sold for $2k during the panic going for $600.00 new for its exact twin.
I think even the young person working for minimum wage oughta have an AR if they want one and are responsible.
Brutus Out
 
National economics and conditions always affect markets. The firearms and associated markets enjoyed a period of sales and market upturn because of the political fears. Now that Trump has been elected, these fears are eased a bit, and the market will seek a reasonable level.

The market was overcrowded in all segments and the sellers were all crying about margins and sales when everybody, and I mean everybody who had a metal shop became a lower builder, everybody thought they could make some money and soon found out that as the numbers of wholesalers, retailers, online sellers increase, they all get less of a mature market of buyers. Expecting more than a 20% per year business growth and expecting you can handle it without operational or financial issues is not going to happen

We were in the nursery business for a long time. One revenue stream of several that made us about 50K net each year. Over the years, everybody thought they should be in the nursery business, and started nurseries, hell putting greenhouses in their back yard. It was horrendously over populated and we were feeling it was nearing a correction, therefore we kept our inventories reasonably, we had no debt on that business.

In 2008 you could have pulled our nursery phone out of the wall. I June of that year, the wife came in to the office, (she ran the nursery) and said we have half our our expected salable inventory still in the yard, and we need to spend 25K to have next years inventory in the pot and another 6K to take care of and hold this years inventory over.

Those are pretty easy decisions to make, we did not put another crop it the pot, we held the current inventory for another 4 months and dumped it and shut the nursery down. We took only a 25K hit, I say only because other nurseries lost everything. We did not get back in the market and that segment has stayed corrected and will never be back to what it was, not should it be.

The firearm market is right there now. The cookie cutter mass market sellers will struggle, the manufactuers will do fine, custom builders who have cultivated a market will do well, and there will still be people who jump into the market and lose their azzes on speculative ventures.

A shake out is coming, it is needed and the market will be better for it. I anticipate that the political climate will still support increased gun and ammo sales, all the good in the political world can change every two years easily.
 
Less money in the pool to go around right now. We are sliding still on 8 years of recession no matter what the stock market says; that's speculation and our portfolio will tank if promises are not upheld.

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Buyers market as said before as well as people's minds on their mortgage, keeping their job and making sure they have gas to get to work the next two weeks.
 

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