How bad is the firearms industry downturn?

[cooper]

BOTTOM TO THE HIGH MIDDLE INCOME FOLKS ARE FEELING A BIIIGGG SQUEEZE IN THEIR CASH. THATS WHAT I HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR LAST 8-10 MONTHS. WHILE IT SEEMS SLOW AND POSSIBLY SELF INDUCED ITS REAL. HARD TO PUTA FINGER ON TOO.
KINDA STINGS WHEN STOCKPILE OR WHIM DEAL IS PURCHASED. I SEE IT AS A SLIDING SCALE...PLUMMETING...

I THINK I AM PAST MY YEARS OF FIRE SALES OF MY STOCK UNLESS THERE ARE MAGIC BEANS ON THE TABLE.
I FEEL FOR THOSE BROTHERS WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN A TIGHT SPOT. MAYBE PAWN YOUR TOOL RATHER THAN DUMP EM. $20.00 on $100.00 USED TO BE GROWING RATE. MAYBE GET YA BY AND KEEP YOUR TOOLS

 

[Member 3687]

I am not sure how this will play out but talking with my local shops they are basically back to pre Sandy Hook sales. Meaning this is ice fishing season not hunting and so sales are back to normal for this time of year. NOT IN PANIC MODE!

Yes many of them thought Hillary was going to win because the polls and the media told them every day that she was going to so they bought heavy in anticipation of the great demand and now they are sitting on hundreds of rifles they now have to pay for (90 day window before interest kicks in) with more on the way as orders cannot be canceled.

So yes some companies will be going away, some will become stronger and others will just make it depending on how much they gambled on the election.

It's called business.

If these same guns because of the election some how got banned well there business would still be going away once these rifles where gone as they could no longer sell those products, so if they were not diversified before then they would still fail.

I to have a large collection of black rifles and parts and I to will lose on some of them if I had to sell in a pinch but that was never my main intention when I built them. I built them because I wanted them.

Like others have said only time will tell as to what the states and feds will do down the road. If another shooting or terrorist attack happens all bets are off and yes we have midterm elections coming up and it's hard to say what way that will go.

So for now I am buying what I can at cheap prices. I will stock up on more ammo and mags and maybe build a couple more "Bad A$$" rifles while parts are cheap just in case this whole election falls apart and the world goes to Sh-it.

 

[Diamondback]

There should be an AR in every gun rack and in every gun safe!!!!! Open new Singer and Craftsman plants building nothing but US made ARs.

Brutus Out

You mean make the DeWalt "Tack Driver" AR a real thing?

 

[Koda]

any perceived downturn is temporary. If Trump continues to run his presidency the way he has he wont be there in 2018. If I'm wrong and he gets re-elected he wont be there in 2022 and every 4 to 12 years the political pendulum swings in the other direction. Best case scenario 12 years is not really that long in the grand scheme of things.

political aspects aside, the gun industry is closer to where it should normally be and the downturned market will even itself out. If I was a mfg and had over produced in anticipation of Hillary winning, I would just offer a clearance sale and draw in more customers. If that didn't work I would lower my prices temporarily to be the most affordable quality builder the competition couldn't touch.

Is there really a downturn in sales? Black rifles are more popular than ever before...

Anyone who thinks he doesn't need to buy a black rifle because Trump is in office is not paying attention. Bloomberg is still working against us and Trump is no golden child of diplomacy.

 

[The Heretic]

Agreed, capitalism is generally self governed by supply and demand. I am not sad to see a plain jane AR that people sold for $2k during the panic going for $600.00 new for its exact twin.
I think even the young person working for minimum wage oughta have an AR if they want one and are responsible.
Brutus Out

That is one thing that is a possible benefit; it might result in an increase in the percentage of gun owners.

 

[The Heretic]

BOTTOM TO THE HIGH MIDDLE INCOME FOLKS ARE FEELING A BIIIGGG SQUEEZE IN THEIR CASH. THATS WHAT I HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR LAST 8-10 MONTHS. WHILE IT SEEMS SLOW AND POSSIBLY SELF INDUCED ITS REAL. HARD TO PUTA FINGER ON TOO.
KINDA STINGS WHEN STOCKPILE OR WHIM DEAL IS PURCHASED. I SEE IT AS A SLIDING SCALE...PLUMMETING...

I THINK I AM PAST MY YEARS OF FIRE SALES OF MY STOCK UNLESS THERE ARE MAGIC BEANS ON THE TABLE.
I FEEL FOR THOSE BROTHERS WHO FIND THEMSELVES IN A TIGHT SPOT. MAYBE PAWN YOUR TOOL RATHER THAN DUMP EM. $20.00 on $100.00 USED TO BE GROWING RATE. MAYBE GET YA BY AND KEEP YOUR TOOLS

Not sure about whether income has much to do with it, rather probably whether someone manages their finances well or not. The problem with a lot of people is that they do not have the will to live within their means, and with an income that they should not have to be in a struggle, they are in a struggle nonetheless.

Those people who can't live within their means, but who buy things (including guns) on a whim, and then an unexpected - but predictable expense hits them (kids need braces, car needs a new transmission, etc.), well they turn around and have to sell that item and/or others. Whether it is a jetski, or a gun, or whatever. Even worse is when they buy it on credit.

There are a lot of people out there who make well over the median income, who make an income that not only should provide them with an adequate or even comfortable lifestyle, who either try to keep up with the Joneses and/or always feel the need to buy another "toy", who do this without setting aside a "rainy day" fund, and then find themselves in a pinch when they shouldn't have.

I see this all the time here - just look at the classifieds - there is always somebody who has this problem. If a person is that tight on money that they have to sell the item, then they simply should not be buying the item in the first place.

 

[Caveman Jim]

The gun industry lost their best salesman ever for over 8 years, Owebama. Hitllary lost so there ya have it.
Gun manufacturers, gun shops and scalpers anticipated the market and will loose bigtime but you can thank one party, they're the ones that want to screw us evil gun owners.
The supply is now here but the demand is not.
On a side note, if I sell my boat & tackle due to the mismanagement, I could likely buy 30-40 AR's and three more safes....

 

[Nick Burkhardt]

I have always wanted a suppressor for my nightstand 9mm. Getting one for a 22LR and 5.56 would be nice too, but I was not about to pay $600 plus a $200 tax EACH for a tube of aluminum. So I guess you can say that I am waiting for the HPA to buy my first. Then maybe get a few "oil filter" adapters or make my own.

 

[eldbillbo]

So Trump has been a turning point for preservation of firearms rights but it has been a real double edge sword for the industry. Silencer Co has laid off half its employees, Olympic Arms is shutting down,most if not all firearms companies stock values have dropped if not plummeted. The number of BGC per month has tanked.

I have noticed a "yuuge" trend in the black rifle parts market. I suspect many companies tooled up and cranked out gobbs of stuff anticipating a Hillary win and now are trying to blow stuff out to recoup the investment. Thing is this is forcing a depressed market even further down.

Again, I think it's a good thing for the enthusiast today, but in the bigger picture I am worried about the longer term effects. Manufacturers are going to fold, distributors fail and in the end we will be left with fewer choices and a smaller industry.

The sheer amount of black rifle bits that are in inventory and the almost 180deg shift in the buying patterns of that demographic I fear will result in a very long cycle to equalize the supply/demand curve. To wit, it's gonna cripple many of the small shops that have innovative products, the guys pushing much of the industry forward.

I have bought a lot of stuff in the last 6 months because of this firesale. I have stocked up on what is probably a lifetime of parts. Now though I am beginning to realize that this pile of stuff that I have always looked at as an asset I could liquidate if I got in a pinch would be difficult to convert to cash without taking a big hit.

I have 5.56 ammo for sale locally @ $225/1000 for a month now with no interest. I have had 4 new unfired AR's listed at 75% of what the parts cost (one at less than $500) with no interest. These are not junk or special hard to move rifles, built with good parts on Aero and SSA lowers. No different than rifles I have sold for close to twice what I am asking in the past.

So what do you think, is this a short correction that will run its course in 6 months to a year or is this the new normal? Has the "black rifle fad" run its course sort of like the custom chopper fad that resulted in being able to buy a $50,000 motorcycle for $8,500? That market has never recovered and probably will not in the next decade at least.

I hope you are not saying that this is a bad thing and blaming Trump for this. The gun industry was going to implode on itself regardless of who was in office I said this in a forum months before the election. Had Hillery won the industry would have made out like bandits for the first year but even before the election supply was already out weighting demand. Having to buy out of fear of a ban is the wrong reason to have to buy a gun. Even when the media was saying that Trump did not have a chance and Hillery was going to win there was not a lot of fear buying as everyone had aready bought during the past 8 years of living under the threat of bans. The prices were already dropping. During those panic times, a lot of shops that otherwise never would have produced firearm products started producing them.

Some of the companies that did not make good business decisions will close. Some that saw an opportunity to ride it out did and now its time to move on. It's hard for companies like Oly to compete with companies like PSA how can they PSA produce parts for that price is amazing they must make their profits off of sheer volume.

Another thing that many shooters are hopeful for is an end to 922r which will allow the importation of imported sporting rifles like AKMs, Drangonoves, Daewoos, Sigs, Hk94s etc. When this happens if allowed to happen figure at least half of the surviving US manufacturers to fall off the planet I am sure there are many that would like to add something other than another AR15 to their collections.

For gun owners, all this should be great news that our sport is becoming affordable again. Yes, those who bought during the panic hoping to capitalize simply will not but Is this not what we all had hoped for. With the exception for us that are being sucked in the California style gun control laws here on the West Coast the rest of the country with the exception of a couple other states are going to enjoy 2nd Amendment freedoms that they have not been able to in a long time. Or at least not have to live with the fear of bans. This must be a great feeling for them. Unfortunately thanks to the protestors making national news the NW just looks like a bunch of Liberal Snowflakes so we can not expect much sympathy from the rest of the country.

What we will end up with a leaner higher quality, better customer service industry. We well always need accessories and ammo. The industry will try harder to make something newer and better to get our money.

Oh yeh over the weekend I saw a brick of .22 at bi-mart. Just sitting there waiting for someone to buy it. It was $18.75 for 375 rds I'll think I'll give it a few months when I can get a brick of 500 for $16.98

 

[eldbillbo]

I would also like to add that the reasons you are having a hard time selling your AR15s is the requirement of background checks for private sales. Many law abiding people used to be more than happy to pay more than retail for a used gun to avoid big brother knowing what they own so you can thank the governor for that with a signature she cut value of your firearm collection to private buyers

 

[Diamondback]

The way around that is if you're selling a build as opposed to a "factory gun," just sell everything except the lower as a Parts Kit, recycle the lower into your next build.

No BGC, cash-and-carry or even can ship interstate. EDIT: Bonus, no sales tax on the parts-kit since you can FTF it and lower tax assessed on any transferred lowers than what it'd be on full guns.

Suck on THAT, Brownstain and Ambulance Chaser!

 

[Alex V]

Everybody's pretty much said it here, just enjoy it while it lasts. Things will even out eventually and more than likely swing back the other way.

 

[FireArm]

When Ak47s started going up in price and not value, I knew the market was sure to have a downturn. All these guys who pay 600-800 for wasrs, when Wasrs were originally sold for $250-300 and try and explain it as "the gun market value" are the guys who are going to either keep them til they die or sell at a loss.
AR15s are even worse, I used to see basic (during ban produced) ARs going for $800 -1100 all day everyday, Now I can build a basic AR for $300-400 (Im talkin on sale, no shipping, $300 kit minus lower).
Tons of manufactures competing, now that America is well armed where do these market go? Hopefully back to the mid-90s prices or back to the prices of just after the national bans were lifted? But I have a feeling from watching the firearms market prices for years, the prices of somethings are never going back down (ammo).
Quality made firearms in excellent condition will always be in demand.

 

[DirectDrive]

Market correction.
And thankfully the hoarders are either out of business or can't dent the supply like they were doing....at least for a while.

 

[salmonriverjohn]

The media got it wrong, the polls missed it by a mile, the left got caught slack jawed and flat footed, the gun industry counted on massive panic buys at insane prices, oh and the ammo scalping scumbags that are going to be taking it in the rear due to misreading things ALL screwed the pooch on this one BIG TIME!

Me, I think it's great all the way around. I never bought into the whole panic buying behavior in the first place, didn't need to.
The markets going to correct, some will survive and some won't.
That's how a speculative market works. Most of us here know this and shouldn't be surprised.

 

[Koda]

Not sure about whether income has much to do with it, rather probably whether someone manages their finances well or not.

I hear what your saying but I also believe our rights depend in part on giving everyone the freedom to bear arms. If someone is poor its still possible they can live within their means, they should be able to afford a gun for self defense... (probably need one the most). Probably they wont be able to get even a cheap $400 AR15 or Glock but if they balance their budget right they should be able to afford some of the cheaper yet reliable options, Hi Point comes to mind. I think thats what was being suggested above...

 

[Kruel J]

Bad enough that I listed a bunch of .22LR and a nice AR rifle for REALLY fair pricing without a bite. I pulled the AR listing and still have hope that the .22LR will move.

 

[The Heretic]

If someone is poor its still possible they can live within their means, they should be able to afford a gun for self defense... (probably need one the most).

I've been poor a number of times and I know that there is a point where you cannot make ends meet, much less have enough to buy a gun, not to mention save money for a rainy day, which they probably need more than a gun.

I know people who are not making ends meet now, not even close, because of circumstances beyond their control.

Shelter, food and health come first. When your (or your kids) medicine and doctor appts. costs $1K a month, your rent is $500+, your food is $200 a month, your car expenses are $100 a month to get to work, your utilities are $200 a month or more because you live in N. Dakota and it is cold, your income is $2K per month before taxes from working two jobs, and you are a single mother with a deadbeat ex., you can't afford a gun - you are not affording your basic living expenses.

You just keep racking up the debt.

When your 20 year old car breaks, you are screwed.

There are a lot of people in this position.

 

[thorborg]

We can't have it both ways.
Either the market (supply and demand) is allowed to correct itself as it should in my view, or more government with regulation and control. It's what capitalism is all about.
Choice / price, feast or famine periods as a consumer or investor can be frustrating for both. But Hey, It's what capitalism is all about.
So far, I still have a choice on some thing's.
As a disconnected aside, at the Oregon DMV recently I noticed we no longer have a driver's license. As if to ensure we are properly debased, the renewal form now reads "Driving privileges". Makes sense, seems most cant drive anyway so why would they need a license that usually alludes to some level of competence.

 

[mjbskwim]

Markets always fluctuate. The companies should have tempered their growth and hopefully the employees understood that this may end and put some savings away.
It may take a few years to find a new "normal". Who knows what's going to happen. Just because Trump seems to be on our side doesn't mean another sandy hook doesn't change the landscape again.
The thing to do right now ,if you have the capital,is buy the things you may need in the future. Buy that backup gun,those few extra cases of ammo or magazines.
Thinking about it,I was watching a YouTube vid that the guide went to 6.8spc for his hot gun. Maybe I should build one
And yalls got thinking about a 9mm AR pistol(a pistol cause I still don't get paying an extra 200 bucks for an sbr)