The Panic Season

[Dinglenutz]

So we're into yet another panic buying spree, and as per the usual arrangement supply is spotty, ammo is scarce, and prices are up. Some things seem a little different and some things seem the same when it doesn't seem like they should be.

The firearm drought makes some sense, demand has spiked and last time this happened we weeded out a lot of the over eager and undercapitalized manufacturers when the shortage became a glut and prices plummeted. Those that remain are going to be the ones who were cautious last time, and who saw what could happen in a moments notice. So it seems to me that supply is ramping up but not radically. Shortages seem to be lessening.

OK fine.

But ammo makes no sense. Last time we did this, production capacity was built out, and even if those lines went dark for a bit, it seems like bringing that capacity online shouldn't be nearly as big a deal this time. So what's really up? Is demand REALLY that much higher this time around compared to 2016-ish? I can't yet make sense of it.

Any ideas?

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[GWS]

Shortage of labor due to Covid?
Setting up socially spaced work stations are ridiculous in a factory. I have an acquaintance who grows prunes and because of social distance requirements he can only run the equivalent of one processing line when he needs to run three. He's going to lose a lot of crop and therefore money because it will rot before it can get processed.
I wonder if there is some similar social distancing limitation in ammo plants that restricts production.
Of equal concern is upstream providers
Are ammo plants dealing with shortages of brass, lead or powders?

I wish I had the answer
I don't like waiting in lines to buy 2 boxes of ammo per caliber.

 

[pdx1]

(.)Y( . )

 

[Certaindeaf]

So we're into yet another panic buying spree, and as per the usual arrangement supply is spotty, ammo is scarce, and prices are up. Some things seem a little different and some things seem the same when it doesn't seem like they should be.

The firearm drought makes some sense, demand has spiked and last time this happened we weeded out a lot of the over eager and undercapitalized manufacturers when the shortage became a glut and prices plummeted. Those that remain are going to be the ones who were cautious last time, and who saw what could happen in a moments notice. So it seems to me that supply is ramping up but not radically. Shortages seem to be lessening.

OK fine.

But ammo makes no sense. Last time we did this, production capacity was built out, and even if those lines went dark for a bit, it seems like bringing that capacity online shouldn't be nearly as big a deal this time. So what's really up? Is demand REALLY that much higher this time around compared to 2016-ish? I can't yet make sense of it.

Any ideas?

Everyone thinks they'll be a one man Alamo against riotous covid infected zombies. duh

 

[Free_Patriot]

The demand is real, unprecedented, and greatly magnified compared to years passed.

I've personally been looking for several makes and models of firearms and they're simply not out there. My only hope for one of them was to DRIVE TO KANSAS and pick it up in the store, if it was even there once I arrived. I'm now torn between compromising and going with something else or simply waiting things out.

This time around, it truly has hit the fan, and 'average folk' suddenly see the need to either own guns for the first time or stock up on what they have. That includes ammo, and great quantities of it. We've never felt a need to get a CCW/CPL until now, and we have them. We've open carried and carried in our vehicles for years. Prudence takes precedence.

 

[Dungannon]

Ammo manufacturers are probably snarfing all the primers, but I still have a decent supply.

I'm certainly shooting less the last several months. When the grandkids stay, they still get unlimited .22lr but only a box each of .38, 9mm, .223 and .308.

For the first time in a long time, my inventory of ammo and reloading components is actually up-to-date.

 

[Pops1911]

Agreed with all of you above. It is a strange renewed ammo world out there to be sure. Very happy that I don't "need" anything right now as I have been there and seen this before during the last panic. I am of the mind that the human species reacts like a herd during uncertain times. A couple of 'em panic and the whole herd tends to go with 'em in the stampede over the cliff into the river filled with water moccasins. Stampedes have to run out and get tired before things slow down. I don't think the current stampede is anywhere near wearing out yet. Best advice is hold it if you got it. It will pass eventually. Other than that

 

[Ruger Rich]

It's a bit different this time around. Some of the things causing this, I believe, are Covid19, unrest due to the BLM stuff, but especially uncertainty over the presidential election. Kinda like the perfect storm. I can control myself, somewhat, but other than conversation, such as here, I have little influence. Prepare for the future as the worst and pray for the best.

 

[L84Cabo]

• We are 8 months in to "panic season"
• We've got a pandemic, wide scale civil unrest, and an election. Any ONE of those things is enough to kick off "panic season." All three together is really unprecedented
• With regards to the election the democratic knucklehead is on record saying he will try to ban AR's. His running mate would ban all guns if she could
• Have you looked at how many guns have actually been sold in the last several months? People need to feed those guns something. And on top of that a metric crap ton of people are trying to stock up well beyond that for what they perceive as the coming civil unrest
• I don't think ammo production was built out as much as you think it was

And here we are.

 

[Siglvr]

If Joe Biden is elected, there will be no need for ammo. The election is in less than 2 months. Folks want to be grandfathered in when old Joe puts Beto in charge of disarming us- which is just what he said. But there is no assurance Joe won't do a wayback machine and make everyone turn them in. Kamala would if Joe flops over. My advise is to wait, but if Joe gets elected, you may not have a chance to stock up. Sigh. Sorry, but that's the lay of the land. Joe Biden is anti-gun. He is proud that he helped pass the 1994 assault weapons ban that did nothing and proud that he was instrumental in passing the Brady Bill. Read his positions below- it's gonna be very very ugly if he is elected, whatever negative things you may think about Trump is nothing in comparison:

Joe Biden on Gun Control: Understanding Biden's 2020 Platform and the Second Amendment

Biden, Beto, and Gun Control | National Review

 

[awshoot]

(.)Y( . )

One is bigger than the other.

 

[pdx1]

One is bigger than the other.

Eileen was her name

 

[P7M13]

Just means it pushes to one side or the other.

Went to Yellowstone to get fresh air. *Every* gun shop I passed had pretty good powder supply. 9mm, 40S&W, 357 Mag pistol ammo was ALL OUT.
Picked up a pound of RL33 in MT. Gonna pick up some other powder for a member here if it's there when I pass through again.

 

[CountryGent]

One is bigger than the other.

Based upon the available data, one can conclude this phenomenon is not an anomaly. Recommend further research with larger sampling size.

As to the present panic, I've been through so many I've lost count long ago. So ... Yes. No. Up. Down. Round and round. None the less, one must get down. Stick and move.

God bless America! Visca Catalunya! (And I just lost my train of thought.)

 

[Camohunter]

In the past I have reloaded for hunting rifles only. I have plenty of loaded ammo and components for many more. I have several hundred rounds for my 357 pistols. A little over a year ago I purchased my first 9 mm.
Ammunition was on the cheap side so I put off the decision to reload after reading many saying it was not worth the cost to reload for this caliber.
Now I find myself with only around 500 rounds of factory ammunition, and it's very difficult/speedy to buy more. I have been unsuccessful finding dies and components for reloading now also. I should have known better and put myself in a better situation. I hope I get another chance before/if it gets worse.

 

[awshoot]

...Now I find myself with only around 500 rounds of factory ammunition, and it's very difficult/speedy to buy more. I have been unsuccessful finding dies and components for reloading now also. ...

RCBS indicates they have carbide 9mm die sets in stock (you can buy directly) as of the moment of this post: Buy 3-Die Carbide Taper Crimp Set - Group B - Popular Pistol Cartridges And More | RCBS

 

[Dinglenutz]

In the past I have reloaded for hunting rifles only. I have plenty of loaded ammo and components for many more. I have several hundred rounds for my 357 pistols. A little over a year ago I purchased my first 9 mm.
Ammunition was on the cheap side so I put off the decision to reload after reading many saying it was not worth the cost to reload for this caliber.
Now I find myself with only around 500 rounds of factory ammunition, and it's very difficult/speedy to buy more. I have been unsuccessful finding dies and components for reloading now also. I should have known better and put myself in a better situation. I hope I get another chance before/if it gets worse.

I never bothered to reload 9mm either when it was so cheap, but I picked up a set of carbide dies and a gauge last week. Fortunately I have the rest of the makings due to reloading 357 Sig.

 

[Aero Denezol]

It's my understanding the ammo/gun manufacturers overproduced leading up to the 2016 election. When Trump defeated Hillary they were stuck with a glut of product, for which they had no buyers (remember $400 AR's??). As prices fell and fell so went the industry.

I'm sure there are other factors, but some of the ammo/gun shortage in 2020 is the industry not wanting to repeat 2016.

 

[308]

If Joe Biden is elected, there will be no need for ammo. The election is in less than 2 months. Folks want to be grandfathered in when old Joe puts Beto in charge of disarming us- which is just what he said. But there is no assurance Joe won't do a wayback machine and make everyone turn them in. Kamala would if Joe flops over. My advise is to wait, but if Joe gets elected, you may not have a chance to stock up. Sigh. Sorry, but that's the lay of the land. Joe Biden is anti-gun. He is proud that he helped pass the 1994 assault weapons ban that did nothing and proud that he was instrumental in passing the Brady Bill. Read his positions below- it's gonna be very very ugly if he is elected, whatever negative things you may think about Trump is nothing in comparison:

Joe Biden on Gun Control: Understanding Biden's 2020 Platform and the Second Amendment

Biden, Beto, and Gun Control | National Review

It is a strange thing to me how a small group of people can (allegedly) control a gigantic majority of people. Orwell's Big Brother, Nazi's vs Jews, Wizard of Oz. How about the masses simply say, FOAD? Maybe we have all turned to sheep and fear a fake Mexican named Beto, a fake African American named Kamala, and an old man suffering from dementia

 

[Dinglenutz]

There is a danger, slim but real, that enough of the congress critters will take a win as a mandate, and then begin top act on that perceived but probably not reality based assumption. Danger to the herd/band often causes a stampede, or for a more primate-centric metaphor, a mass exodus into the trees.

I think that's what's happening. A few start jumping into the branches, more see it and follow suit, and pretty soon a lot of us are buying TP we don't need.