The January 2018 stock market - easy come, easy go.

[IronMonster]

I really hope you "ride it out" guys dont get wiped out. The market does not always come back... Ask any Japanese investor that rode out the 1990's crash (hint, in 30 years it still has not recovered adjusted for inflation) They can tell you a bit about what it means to ride it out.

Another bit of history. If you bought the Dow in 1929 it was 1958 before you just broke even. 29 years to get back to zero. How many of you can wait 29 years to get back to where you are today? Why would you risk making a few percent more at the top of the market rather than take a few percent loss to avoid a 50% reduction of capital.

The market is at nose bleed levels and only because the FED has propped it up, it is far beyond fair value.

You are all big boys and girls and can make decisions for yourself... But I can tell you that job one for any "investor" is preservation of capital. All signs are that now is the time to make things safe, not take risk. Leaving money in the market is a massive, unnecessary risk.

No, dont sell at the bottom..... Sell now and if you have to be in the market buy at the bottom. Don't do anything in fear. Do it because it makes sound financial sense.

 

[etrain16]

I really hope you "ride it out" guys dont get wiped out. The market does not always come back... Ask any Japanese investor that rode out the 1990's crash (hint, in 30 years it still has not recovered adjusted for inflation) They can tell you a bit about what it means to ride it out.

Another bit of history. If you bought the Dow in 1929 it was 1958 before you just broke even. 29 years to get back to zero. How many of you can wait 29 years to get back to where you are today? Why would you risk making a few percent more at the top of the market rather than take a few percent loss to avoid a 50% reduction of capital.

The market is at nose bleed levels and only because the FED has propped it up, it is far beyond fair value.

You are all big boys and girls and can make decisions for yourself... But I can tell you that job one for any "investor" is preservation of capital. All signs are that now is the time to make things safe, not take risk. Leaving money in the market is a massive, unnecessary risk.

No, dont sell at the bottom..... Sell now and if you have to be in the market buy at the bottom. Don't do anything in fear. Do it because it makes sound financial sense.

I would be more concerned if those were my only assets, my only source of funds. Yes, they are a good chunk, but they're not all I have. Diversity is the best answer. Put it in different places, different investments so if one collapses, you're not poised to lose everything.

As I noted previously, since I can't cash out or transfer from certain pension funds, the best I can do is manage it within the bounds of what I'm allowed. After the 2008 crash, I did lose some value, but kept buying stocks at the bottom. When it started to recover, I got those losses back plus some additional gains due to the larger number of shares, bought at low prices. Since I still have some years to retirement, I'm not ready to panic. If I was near retirement, I'd be looking to protect what I could.

 

[The Heretic]

I've been in the market, via 401Ks, since before the dot com crash, in which I both lost my job and on paper, 50% of the valuation of my 401K. At that point it wasn't much - went from $12K down to $6K. Got calls from brokers to transfer to their funds, roll it over they said. I stood pat. Ten years later my advisor tracked it down (it went thru several different companies that had bought the corp I worked for) and it had grown to about $24K.

I went thru the 2007-8 crash. Again, lost my job and about 40% of the valuation of the 401K on paper. Hung onto it, by 2011 it had come back and then some.

If you look at a chart of the various indexes over time, there are dips and peaks, but the long term trend is always up.

If you don't need to withdraw funds right away (i.e., in the next year or two), then it is better to let it ride - sooner or later it will not only come back to where it was, but exceed that.

A number of years ago this was the five year average right after a "correction":


Economics 101 - buy low, sell high.

If you don't need the cash, let it ride.

If you need the cash you should have been moving your funds out of equity and into bonds already because there were plenty of warnings that this would happen and surprise! It happened. Now it is too late.

I moved from 80/20 stocks/bonds to 20/80 stocks/bonds about 16 months ago. at that point I was worried about my job and Trump getting elected.

Since then my job situation stabilized and I moved back into stocks until now I am about 50/50 stocks/bonds. I am going to wait a few days for the market to bottom out and then move another 5 to 10% bonds into stocks.

As I get closer to retirement I am feeling more secure because my projected SSI benefits go up as I keep contributing and I get closer to full retirement age, so I will be less dependent on my private retirement funds. I move more towards long term growth so that it will keep growing for my daughter who won't get it until I am gone - hopefully in about 20 years. So I can go back to the long term view.

YMMV - but if you are not near or past retirement age, don't panic.

 

[NWGlockgal]

I'm not worried. A correction was obviously going to happen at some point in time. But after a correction....back comes the bull market.
I'm in it for the long haul. This is actually a good time to put more into the old mutual fund...buy at a discount.
And I am still way up in 2017...nice gains. Thank you Mr. President!

 

[The Heretic]

I think that it is bottoming out today so I just moved everything out of bonds into equity in my 401k

It is harder to do that in my IRA (actively managed) so I will leave that alone for now

 

[CoastRange57]

no offense bro, but your investor friend is an idiot. the same people said the same thing back in 2007-2008 and most of them are now dead due to jumping off buildings...

No offense dude but you are an idiot. A millennial who knows everything. Check. When you were still slobbering on your mamas teat, a lot of us were running business's in the millions of dollars and have had our azz kicked a few times in the market and are still here doing fine. My investor friend, and lifetime friend has been in the market for 40 years. He has well over 6 million invested and I tend to listen to him.

i will bet my 7 figure life savings he will end up killing himself once he finds out that he has lost everything.

7 figures and you are a millennial ?? Pretty good really. Some humility may be in order and being grateful you have that much at a young age. You can stop investing at this point and spend your money on IPhones and new cars. But you are in precious metals so that may not be such a good move.

this is the COLLAPSE we all have been waiting for. they only POSTPONED the total meltdown in 2008. 2008 wasnt the total collapse. This is the one i have been waiting for.

You seem to delight in the market drops. Were you in business in 2008 or working ?? Or still taking bong hits in college ?? I got my azz severely kicked in 2008 and never jumped off a building. Your analogy is flawed.

i saw this coming years ago, and im a millennial...

That explains a lot including the annoying small letters and not caring about how you are perceived.

all of the fools who mocked me over the years are about to lose everything. i am having the laugh of my life right now.

If the "fools" lost everything then they are not investing right. Simple math. The fact you laugh at others when they lose money shows that you have the character of a rock.

watch the market drop like a rock tomorrow morning. it will be worse than today and friday.

Down 68 points as I write this..still waiting...

you all have been warned.

only precious metals are safe....

The next time I take financial advice from a self pimping millennial will be the first time. So I assume you must have that 7 figure life savings all in precious metals now ?? Great investing move proven to not work every time the market hiccups. How do you haul all that sh*t around anyway ?? Let us know how that works out for you.

 

[etrain16]

@CoastRange57 I'm sure you've met your share of folks like this that "know" more about the market and what's coming than anyone else. If I had a dollar for every person that predicted the collapse of civilization and the reliance on precious metals to survive, I'd be a millionaire now. Not one single prediction has happened yet, not one. In fact, what I have found in most circumstances is that the people that say that stuff are shills who are either selling something directly - such as books and seminars to teach you all those "secrets" that no one else in the world knows or understands, or they're so lost themselves they unwittingly become salespeople for that crap. It's an old story and one I'm quite frankly a bit tired of hearing.

Investing is a risk, it always has been, always will be. People should only invest what they can afford to lose and should diversify those investments so one market dropping doesn't necessarily wipe you out. I'm no expert, but I know folks who are really on top of things - I listen, I learn and I adjust based on what I see.

But I agree, having a millennial tell me they know more than everyone else, and that they have personally predicted what amounts to the end of the world just makes me laugh.

Another thing - I will never laugh or revel in the losses others face in the market. People work hard for that money and to invest, and if they do lose it, it can be sad and tragic. Well, save for a few, like George Soros or Michael Bloomberg - but they've earned the right to be laughed at after all the $$ they spend to take our rights away. The average guy though, he doesn't deserve to be treated that way, especially by someone without some more years of life experience

 

[CoastRange57]

@CoastRange57

But I agree, having a millennial tell me they know more than everyone else, and that they have personally predicted what amounts to the end of the world just makes me laugh.

Another thing - I will never laugh or revel in the losses others face in the market. People work hard for that money and to invest, and if they do lose it, it can be sad and tragic. The average guy though, he doesn't deserve to be treated that way, especially by someone without some more years of life experience

Exactly. When I asked the millennial checker at Freddies yesterday for paper please. She said OK, paper. Did you say you want paper ?? Yeah Paper. I ended up with plastic.

There is a thing called karma is this world. It is real and you can dodge it sometimes and for a long time, but wishing ill will on fellow humans for financial decisions is pretty low. That karma will get you some day.

When you have survived a life threatening illness, and you are sitting in a wheel chair in your living room watching the mfing foreclosure vultures drive by your place, you damn sure will not make light of others misfortunes.

 

[etrain16]

Exactly. When I asked the millennial checker at Freddies yesterday for paper please. She said OK, paper. Did you say you want paper ?? Yeah Paper. I ended up with plastic.

There is a thing called karma is this world. It is real and you can dodge it sometimes and for a long time, but wishing ill will on fellow humans for financial decisions is pretty low. That karma will get you some day.

When you have survived a life threatening illness, and you are sitting in a wheel chair in your living room watching the mfing foreclosure vultures drive by your place, you damn sure will not make light of others misfortunes.

Just so you don't miss it - he's opened a new thread to warn us all of his prediction that, well, the world will effectively come to an end by the close of the market next Monday, 2/12/18:

MASSIVE Stock Collapse Friday/Monday. You Have Been Warned

 

[CoastRange57]

I saw that. Ballsy move calling his shot like that. I guess he has some kind of inside track on that info.

 

[NWGlockgal]

No one has a crystal ball. I think only idiots try to time the market.
If you look at past trends, we will all do just fine.

 

[etrain16]

I saw that. Ballsy move calling his shot like that. I guess he has some kind of inside track on that info.

No one has a crystal ball. I think only idiots try to time the market.
If you look at past trends, we will all do just fine.

I had a grandmother that predicted the end of the world several times - considered us lost idiots for not believing her.

She's been dead for some 15 years now and we're all still here.

Best to keep predictions to yourself lest you appear a fool. Oh well, they're welcome to try.

 

[Defense Minister]

Today's Low - 23,779
Today's High - 24,946
Current (1600 EST) - 24,885

All of Yesterday's losses have been restored. Don't panic unless you sold this morning and bought back this afternoon...

 

[etrain16]

Today's Low - 23,779
Today's High - 24,946
Current (1600 EST) - 24,885

All of Yesterday's losses have been restored. Don't panic unless you sold this morning and bought back this afternoon...

Be curious to see what it does tomorrow and the next day. I have a feeling we're going to see it stabilize and possibly start a slow climb back up again. Won't be so bold as to predict exactly what it will do though.

 

[USMC1911]

Sold all my LRCX Febrary 23 options (puts) and made out well. Gonna sit on cash for a day or two and see what happens. The vix index is really really high expect more volitality.

 

[Defense Minister]

In the account I have the most control over I moved everything to a stable MM fund on Thursday last week cause I saw trouble brewing. On Monday AM I sold some worthless stocks and funds I had in another account and will be moving some of that money into the first account where I will jump back in when things stabilize. The two funds I held in the first account are up 63% and 44% in the last year. Too bad it was also the account where I had the least money...

 

[The Heretic]

I really hope you "ride it out" guys dont get wiped out. The market does not always come back... Ask any Japanese investor that rode out the 1990's crash (hint, in 30 years it still has not recovered adjusted for inflation) They can tell you a bit about what it means to ride it out.

I doubled down; I just moved $100K out of bonds into stock market funds.

Japan != USA

 

[USMC1911]

For me still to early to move in aggressively but depending what it went into it could be a great move. Currently sitting 75% cash so I'm not all out but see some more volitality in the coming weeks. I think the inflation report tomorrow will be important.

 

[The Heretic]

My EJ guy says the funds will move today and tomorrow, so I hope the market goes down this week.

I have no doubt there will be volatility - that is normal - going up for months and months without volatility is not normal.

It is the average over time, not the day to day volatility that makes me money as I am in it for the long run. I was waiting for a good time to move those funds. I think the market, on average, has bottomed out.

Sure it will go down, but it will also go back up. I do not have minute to minute control over my 401K and IRA so I have to take the day to day ups and downs in stride when moving from one strategy to another. As long as the daily average today/tomorrow is well down from where it was in January I will be okay with that because that means I get a decent price.

I am working on a timber deal that may make me enough to pay off my mortgage, so if that happens I am much less concerned about what the market does for the next few months and more interested in what it does over the next decade as I don't plan to touch those funds for my retirement - only to tweak them for tax purposes.

 

[USMC1911]

I feel ya. I day trade with a brokerage account so lots more control over my money. Even got into 18k svxy at $9.65 average. SVXY is like a lottery ticket imo and not a risk most should make but with the return last year and smart moves so far this year its a risk I'm ok with. No work today so will be researching call options for end of February and early March.