Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[RicInOR]

My client issued a statement today that any of their employees returning from that area (mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, are to stay home for 2 weeks; work from home.

 

[E4mafia]

I am not in panic!

I just hate infection spreaders

 

[Cavedweller]

On a related note the American evacuees from Wuhan were originally going to go to SFO, then to LAX and now they're headed for Ontario Airport out in the desert. That tells me that there's a concern about what they might be bringing with them.

Ontario is not exactly in the desert. It's in a rather densely populated area between LA and San Bernardino/Riverside. It would be better if they were landing in the desert.

 

[WWShooter]

Ontario is not exactly in the desert. It's in a rather densely populated area between LA and San Bernardino/Riverside. It would be better if they were landing in the desert.

True, but less populous than West LA and/or San Francisco. The dog in my avatar flew out of Ontario Airport to Seattle 6 years ago - that's about my connection to it. He hasn't commented on it either way.

 

[slimmer13]

If anything, the fatality rate that has been hovering around 2-4% is a little high. I'd imagine that that rate is made up of people that are sick enough to go to the hospital. The majority of those affected, probably get a little sick, feel crappy for a few days, then get better, and are never counted in the statistics.

 

[Camelfilter]

This is a pretty standard Chinese government reaction. They've shut down whole provinces before with little warning and no regards for the consequences, political or economical. Reputation and appearances mean everything.

Difference is they have done such in regards to political / social / religious upheaval. In provinces which didn't even register on an economic scale, overall.

The affected areas, in my understanding, are well in the heart of economic production / transportation zones. The financial hit from such will likely toll in the billions to China. So far...

Extrapolating the financial hit to China, the global financial hit over the coming weeks? Hmmm...

 

[E4mafia]

If anything, the fatality rate that has been hovering around 2-4% is a little high. I'd imagine that that rate is made up of people that are sick enough to go to the hospital. The majority of those affected, probably get a little sick, feel crappy for a few days, then get better, and are never counted in the statistics.

This,

I wonder about outside factors about health conditions prior to and those with pre-existing. Factor in life style choices and living conditions if they haven't that would account for more of a mortality than just the virus itself which makes you feel poopy.

 

[Camelfilter]

This,

I wonder about outside factors about health conditions prior to and those with pre-existing. Factor in life style choices and living conditions if they haven't that would account for more of a mortality than just the virus itself which makes you feel poopy.

Too soon to say.

The real concerning thing will be the true % of critically ill, otherwise healthy cohort, simply due to the complications.

Making up data here: let's say that the current fatalities do have underlying co-morbid conditions. However another 10% of otherwise normally healthy (no-underlying co-morbidity) require critical care.

That would be what could cause a collapse of our current healthcare system. Should this "get legs" and turn to epidemic here.

Leaving approximately 86% whom get ill, but survive without critical care.

Certainly not extinction level stuff, however easily life as we know it ending.

 

[E4mafia]

Ruh roh:

Harvard Professor Arrested for Allegedly Lying About Income From China

Relates to Wuhan. Also not long ago this happens to:

WHO mourns passing of Dr Peter Salama

 

[Cavedweller]

Interesting case - 4 Germans infected by coworker from China at company training event.

Germany confirms three more cases of coronavirus – DW – 01/28/2020

The disease, which has killed more than 100 people in China, has now infected four people in Bavaria. All four instances are thought to be connected to the recent visit of a Chinese worker to the area.

www.dw.com

 

[CountryGent]

And i dont trust what the chinese government says about whats happening there either.

Ditto. I don't believe the BS out of DC; I most certainly don't anything out of Beijing.

I'm no statistician, but those trend lines don't look good.

Yah, no good.

So... Has everyone gotten their flu shot?

Yes, but it isn't going to help with this.

 

[ATCclears]

British Airways has suspended all flights to China.

 

[WWShooter]

Now the American Wuhan evacuees are heading to March Air Reserve Base near Riverside, California. Maybe significant, maybe not.

 

[TomInJax]

Now the American Wuhan evacuees are heading to March Air Reserve Base near Riverside, California.

Maybe they will be in isolation for 10 days before releasing. If they don't have any symptoms by then, they should be ok (I guess).

 

[Cavedweller]

Now the American Wuhan evacuees are heading to March Air Reserve Base near Riverside, California. Maybe significant, maybe not.

Makes sense. They would have the facilities to house them, as well as provide medical care if needed, during quarantine. Better than keeping them cooped up in a hangar at a civilian airport.

 

[E4mafia]

Just got the company work related email concerning this.

Seems they are doing the usual reporting and concerns of it and how it can impact work.

 

[FullMetalJerk]

 

[Medic!]

If anything, the fatality rate that has been hovering around 2-4% is a little high. I'd imagine that that rate is made up of people that are sick enough to go to the hospital. The majority of those affected, probably get a little sick, feel crappy for a few days, then get better, and are never counted in the statistics.

Just a thought.

Lets say during SARS there were 10,000 infected and 1,000 died. That's 10% dead. [Not real numbers. Just easy for my math example]. Consider the deaths to infection ratio is tabulated in hind sight. After the fact.

Now lets say it takes four days on average from the time symptoms show. Until you die from this new virus.
You don't divide 8,000 infected today. Into 180 dead today. Those 180 were infected, and destined to die four day ago.

You divide todays deaths by the number infected something like four days ago. Say 1,000-2,000 infected?
That 180 dead today. Could be 10% or more? Depending on a bunch of variables. [ Like the stage the patient tested positive for the virus. Regardless of symptoms or not ].

It's hard to tell at present. But after all is said and done. We will easily be able to do the math.
As of now? Comparing the death rate from the SARS or any other past outbreak. To this still unfolding outbreak is not apples to apples.

 

[Tony617]

 

[Camelfilter]

Just a thought.

Lets say during SARS there were 10,000 infected and 1,000 died. That's 10% dead. [Not real numbers. Just easy for my math example]. Consider the deaths to infection ratio is tabulated in hind sight. After the fact.

Now lets say it takes four days on average from the time symptoms show. Until you die from this new virus.
You don't divide 8,000 infected today. Into 180 dead today. Those 180 were infected, and destined to die four day ago.

You divide todays deaths by the number infected something like four days ago. Say 1,000-2,000?
That 180 dead today. Could be 10% or more? Depending on a bunch of variables. [ Like the stage the patient tested positive for the virus. Regardless of symptoms or not ].

It's hard to tell at present. But after all is said and done. We will easily be able to do the math.
As of now? Comparing the death rate from the SARS or any other past outbreak. To this still unfolding outbreak is not apples to apples.

Yup.

Then ad in China. Not testing many (apparently), so not reporting any of those as suspect. Combo of policy, saving face and Communism.

Well within the 2 week "wait & see" period.

On or about Feb 8th(ish), if unrelated to direct Wuhan contact of clusters popping up in Western countries. MAY give a better picture of if this will "get legs" globally.

THEN (if so), use the following 2 weeks data as reported from those affected Western countries.

IMO.