Cooling of demand in firearms industry

[Knobgoblin]

I love that you threw that "count " pun in the mix.

Awesome

 

[Knobgoblin]

 

[CLT65]

I'm down with OCD. Yeah, you know me!

 

[Alexx1401]

Ammo and AR firearms kits have not only came back but dropped in price. I think everyone slapped a bunch on their credit cards and stocked up during the covid panic.

Remember the end of the last panic? AR's got so damn cheap it was hard for me not to buy 1 or 2 even though I have no use for one. Ammo, primers, and such are easy to really pack deep. Few can afford to stack guns like this. This panic is playing out just like the last. A lot of the stuff bought on speculation is now up for sale.

 

[GWS]

This magazine & ammo deal also has free shipping. Its one of the best deals I've seen on ammo and mags for quite a while.

 

[2A Patriot LLC]

I'm an FFL dealer with quite a few distributor accounts. More and more firearms are coming off allocation and are back in stock. Some very popular firearms still show as allocated but they are coming in to distributors frequently. If one of my reps know what I am looking for I often get a call within a few days saying they received at least a limited number. On some things I am limited to 2 of each model, on some they don't limit the number.

Ammo seems to be slowly improving. To get some popular ammo, like 9mm I've had to purchase it as part of a package deal. A distributor will say that for each one of "x" firearms that you buy you can get a case of 9mm, or something like that. I suspect the firearms in such deals are ones a distributor feels they are a bit long in and want to move.

At the distributor level the dealer price of ammo is up, but not nearly what you see reflected in auction prices or asking prices from some dealers. I had lunch with my largest distributor's regional representative a couple weeks ago. He said prior to the pandemic the ammo manufacturers were wanting to raise prices, but due to competition they never felt like they could unless everyone did it. It seems the majority of manufacturers will have a 15-20% increase in ammo prices over pre-pandemic prices.

Components, especially primers, are probably going to take a while to be anything close to readily available. Once ammo is somewhat caught up to demand it will take a while for primers to start becoming available. Powder is going to be somewhat quicker because a lot of commercial ammo doesn't utilize standard powders that are available to consumers.

I track and get pricing reports from popular auctions. Demand is still fairly strong, but prices have softened considerably. Unless someone wants something that is very rare, I don't see anyone needing to spend retail plus to get most firearms, and most are available well below MSRP. As a dealer I will say the margins on new firearms are back to being pretty low. At MSRP there isn't much margin in a new firearm, and when they regularly sell for less it gets pretty skinny.

 

[ZA_Survivalist]

Remember the end of the last panic? AR's got so damn cheap it was hard for me not to buy 1 or 2 even though I have no use for one. Ammo, primers, and such are easy to really pack deep. Few can afford to stack guns like this. This panic is playing out just like the last. A lot of the stuff bought on speculation is now up for sale.

^^^ 100%
Im sure if gun related political tensions don't spike for a few more months we'll see tons of panic bought items hit the classifieds. Im just happy to see ammo come back again.. albeit at inflated prices.. at least its out there again.
The AR fallout from the last panic had decent ARs at bottom barrel prices! $300-$400 rifles/pistols.. its hard to not justify a new "project" when its that affordable.

 

[Bushman]

^^^ 100%
Im sure if gun related political tensions don't spike for a few more months we'll see tons of panic bought items hit the classifieds. Im just happy to see ammo come back again.. albeit at inflated prices.. at least its out there again.
The AR fallout from the last panic had decent ARs at bottom barrel prices! $300-$400 rifles/pistols.. its hard to not justify a new "project" when its that affordable.

I noticed that too. Insanely cheap.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I was in Bimart Thursday and they had a huge stock of Hornady bullets in, have not seen so many in months. A huge stock of 17hmr too plus a fair amount of 762x39.

So yes things are starting to fill the shelves again but the prices were higher than a year ago. It's inflation and supply chain in materials that will drive prices higher. My bet is inflation will drive up prices worse than panic demand did. You will see some stuff on the shelves but won't buy it due to prices.

 

[Alexx1401]

Just like last panic and all the ones before it price steadily drops as pipe line fills. Right now the raw materials to make ammo is also higher but that too runs in short supply. When its no longer short it drops. People a couple weeks ago were screaming we would not see ammo for years to come. Now its back and price is dropping. Soon people who are sitting on literally tons of it watching the market are going to drop it on the market trying to get ahead of the crash. Then just as always happens shelves will fill, stuff will be on sale every week, and it will be ignored. Until something sets off another panic

 

[Phantom Man]

When supply starts going up retailers advertise they have it but at a high price. Later they will need to make a price adjustment to sell it. Then people who have hoarded it will start selling it further lowering the price. Patient buyers will prevail...

 

[Alexx1401]

When supply starts going up retailers advertise they have it but at a high price. Later they will need to make a price adjustment to sell it. Then people who have hoarded it will start selling it further lowering the price. Patient buyers will prevail...

Every panic leads to a short drop that can be dramatic. The suppliers get the best price when they can buy an entire load. Soon the manufactures will have caught up enough to send an entire trailer load to some of these guys. Then a lot of those holding large amounts also try to get out from under it and we have a glut. Things will balance back out but for a while there is often some good deals again.

 

[osprey]

Looking forward to sub .20 cent a round 7.62x39 again. My stash has been holding out fine but a resupply at normal prices will be forthcoming. For those that got surprised by this shortage make sure it is indelibly burned into your memory banks and take proper steps moving forward. Stack it deep when it is cheap and happy shooting!

 

[billdeserthills]

Every panic leads to a short drop that can be dramatic. The suppliers get the best price when they can buy an entire load. Soon the manufactures will have caught up enough to send an entire trailer load to some of these guys. Then a lot of those holding large amounts also try to get out from under it and we have a glut. Things will balance back out but for a while there is often some good deals again.

I'm seeing plenty of ammo 'specials' but not much of any brands I can recognize. Makes me wonder what's going on with all the 24/7 shifts I've read about American ammo makers supposedly working-- where is all that US ammo going?

 

[Alexx1401]

I'm seeing plenty of ammo 'specials' but not much of any brands I can recognize. Makes me wonder what's going on with all the 24/7 shifts I've read about American ammo makers supposedly working-- where is all that US ammo going?

The only place I really watch is SG. He has a LOT of US made ammo now. Just took a look at Target and they also have a LOT of US stuff now too but still at too high a price to interest me. Its there though. Just a matter of weeks ago if it hit the site at the price they have it now it would have been gone in seconds.

 

[Mono1]

This offer is very telling of a dropping demand

https://palmettostatearmory.com/200rds-of-pmc-x-tac-62gr-lap-5-56-ammo-10-magpul-pmag-30rd-5-56-magazines.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=daily_deals&utm_campaign=20210709&utm_term=afternoon&utm_content=KIT-0424

And this week, I purchased 1000 pieces of new Starline 357 brass delivered for 161.00

OR .....increasing supply ??

 

[uberguy]

Since it sold out and is backordered, maybe it's not a sign of decreasing demand.

 

[3MTA3]

The midterm elections will determine if there is a second wave of panic or not. The last one ended when Trump unexpectedly won in 2016. Big blue is still pushing bans and registration/confiscation hard and I don't see that changing as long as they are in control.

 

[nwslopoke]

Good news is I am seeing more ammo in more places. Bad news is prices are still high. And seeing more off brands and steel cased.

Looks like for ammo, the market will beat the predicted time to be back somewhat to normal. For guns, outside of those wanting the latest and greatest, everyone that wanted on has one.

 

[oremike]

For guns, outside of those wanting the latest and greatest, everyone that wanted on has one.

Not really, if someone wants blued steel and wood those are still a wait. I was told they can make polymer guns cheaper and faster and that's what the demand is for so that's what they are making. I've had on order since Sept a Springfield Range officer match and a Left Handed Browning X-Bolt Hunter. What I was told on the Browning is they only make left handed guns once a year so I might have to wait another year or two before I get my rifle.