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Are polls very wrong or are we on the losing end of public consensus?

arakboss

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These two polls show public opinion is moving in the opposite direction most here would like it to. I don't see a lot of resistance popping up to fight new legislation. This seems to be a trend in countries all around the world.


 

E4mafia

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If these are the same two polls from the prior week, I already went thru and did the source coverage. One is from a literally who group and had no methodology. The other lists to a POLITICO methodology which gathered a census from 1960 people across the US which came out to 39.2 people per state said they would support it.

POLITICOS being a online poll and the one used by FOX being another online poll but no methodology listed. Yup these are the very same two I've mentioned in another thread.

So other than knee jerking and sensationalism being rampant with lording BIG POLL numbers over people who only read headlines as a factual basis (I wonder who or what demographic makes up that % - thats where we need a methodology study).

So no these are both very misleading when you break down to the brass tax numbers. Great for bringing to sites like these and getting people all up in arms so some interns and other trolls can grab a few screen caps and show just how stupid 2A folks really are like those stereotypes they supposedly are against because reasons.

We aren't losing we are just getting misdirected to seem like we are losing so more of us will eventually cave in like most republicans do and allow safety in the name of something crappy getting through the system so long as we can keep our one cherished object. So if we allow the patriot act we can keep our guns? DEAL. - is an example.
 
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arakboss

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If these are the same two polls from the prior week, I already went thru and did the source coverage. One is from a literally who group and had no methodology. The other lists to a POLITICO methodology which gathered a census from 1960 people across the US which came out to 39.2 people per state said they would support it.

POLITICOS being a online poll and the one used by FOX being another online poll but no methodology listed. Yup these are the very same two I've mentioned in another thread.

So other than knee jerking and sensationalism being rampant with lording BIG POLL numbers over people who only read headlines as a factual basis (I wonder who or what demographic makes up that % - thats where we need a methodology study).

So no these are both very misleading when you break down to the brass tax numbers. Great for bringing to sites like these and getting people all up in arms so some interns and other trolls can grab a few screen caps and show just how stupid 2A folks really are like those stereotypes they supposedly are against because reasons.

We aren't losing we are just getting misdirected to seem like we are losing so more of us will eventually cave in like most republicans do and allow safety in the name of something crappy getting through the system so long as we can keep our one cherished object. So if we allow the patriot act we can keep our guns? DEAL. - is an example.
That is a relief then. Hopefully the reports that some Republicans and even the POTUS are leaning towards passing some type of gun restrictions are also wrong.

Edit It appears the Fox poll was not done online:
"Conducted August 11-13, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,013 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters."
 

E4mafia

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That is a relief then. Hopefully the reports that some Republicans and even the POTUS are leaning towards passing some type of gun restrictions are also wrong.

Edit It appears the Fox poll was not done online:
"Conducted August 11-13, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,013 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters."
Ah so there was a methodology. I must have glimpsed over it. human error...
And thank you for finding it!

1013/50 = 20.26 so basically 20 people per state were called and polled. that big poll number is representative of the pool, not the nation. If these were actual exiting polls or largely conducted on a city by city basis nation wide then I would be a little more worried. When the sample sizes get bigger than 1 or 2 thousand and end up around 1 or 2 million then its time to be worried. All of these polls are hot off the heels of the El paso and Ohio shootings so of course they are bank rolling on small pool sizes making a huge poll number for a headline which again many seem to take a factual basis without reading the contents. Everything inflated and manipulated to garner attention.

In any case another round of cold calls from around the nation with such a small sample size is why they can claim BIG POLL numbers and try to demoralize the base supporters and 2A advocates. Nothing new since 2016 SSDD carry on folks there are more important things in life to be doing than having reporting agency's fear monger so the ratings can stay up.
 

AndyinEverson

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Any poll is only as good as:

The questions they ask...
How the questions are asked...
Who is being polled...
When the poll is done...

To be sure , I feel that gun owners are outnumbered in voting , representation , media outlets and the like...
For decades now guns and gun owners , have been stereotyped , ridiculed , vilified , lied about and lied to....
Its no wonder that in many areas around our country , gun owners are on the losing end of public consensus.

A gun owner must be his own best ambassador...
What you do or say about guns , when interacting out in public , to include a public forum , such as this one , can be seen as how all gun owners think and act..

To be clear here :
I am not saying to be overly sensitive or PC in speech or deed , nor to be a "doormat " for others to walk all over.
Just be mindful that what you say and do with guns , may impact or affect more that you know.
Andy
 
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A "properly" worded poll question and cherry-picking data can net you any result you might be looking for. Flawed methodology, sample sizes, sample demographics, and generally sloppy data-gathering are an agenda-pollsters best friends. I could probably construct a poll that comes to the conclusion that the majority of NWFA members support more gun control.

Ask a question like: Should potential gun buyers be required to go through a BGC?

Well, most people would say yes, therefore most Americans (90% is the number they're currently using) support UBC.

Should "something" be done to curb mass shootings?

Yes, of course. Since the ONLY "solutions" currently being offered are restrictions of citizens' rights, obviously theres huge support for restricting Americans' rights.

Plus, I don't think most people spot (or are looking for) the agenda within the question. Setting up a false dichotomy (Is health-care a right or a privilege? Huh?) is as much a tool for agenda-polls as the security that comes from the knowledge that hardly anybody cares enough to call BS before moving on to the next thing.
 
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