Are polls very wrong or are we on the losing end of public consensus?

[MannyGlocks]

I wish they'd mind control the rat infestation in L.A. where according to Dr. Drew Pinsky their population explosion is going to spur on the Black Plague.

 

[leadcounsel]

I think the older more conservative generation is dying. The younger generations are more urban and liberal. I think texas and Florida may flip to blue. I think the repubs will sell us out and there will be another amnesty for illegals and that will be the end of that. I think Trump is causing alot of damage to moderate swing voters than people admit and the left has a good chance of beating him all they need is Texas or Florida. I really hope I'm wrong.

Left ideology currently holds the press, Congress, the education system, and social media. For the most part that's check mate.

Counter points. You've been brainwashed by the media and don't think critically.

* Leftist media may have more broadcasts but they are an echo chamber continually losing ratings and shown to be liars, con artists, hypocrites and deceptive. Most newspapers are now out of print or reeling economically. Foxnews (right leaning) leads the ratings by wild margins on nearly every main program hour. After Russiagate was shown as a hoax, the main leftist shows ratings collapsed. They are a fraud.

* People are pushing back against leftist "education" indoctrination in schools.

* Left holds the House only and has done squat since 2018 except cry about Russia which is a proven fraud. Right holds the Senate at least thru 2022 and POTUS thru at least 2020 and I believe Trump will win again.

* In spite of lying polls, Trump's bad personality was a known quantity in 2016 and he still won pretty handily, and if you factor that it was an upset then he won by a landslide because he was a 10 to 1 underdog. The major issue was his unknown X factor and fears about tanking the economy (it's booming), starting WWIII (he's actually made progress toward peace), being a big racist and locking up blacks (false), colluding with Russia (wasteful hoax), etc. The opposite. He's delivered on the economy, military, pushing back on ISIS, putting Conservative judges on the bench, etc. For those who were unsure it's a sigh of relief and for the holdouts a note to join the team.

Unless he goes off the rail, why would anyone leave Team Trump? And even if he pushes some gun control (which will infuriate me and many others) he's still better than any of the leftists in a binary choice because I'm smart enough to know we WILL have a president no matter how stupidly I cast my vote.

Given the known personality faults prior to 2016 and he's not done anything *worse* than that surreptitiously recorded offensive (to some) comment, and on balance he's basically "won" every allegation he's made against others, and his PERFORMANCE record has been about as good as anyone can expect and I'd give him a B+/A-, he'll cruise to re-election and pick up 5 million votes.

With 5 million more votes he's in Obama 2008 territory. Who on the left can capture Obama numbers without fraud?

* Social media does very little to sway any votes since it's just an echo chamber. It's not as powerful as it appears. And the opposite, it really harms Dims bigly because their frauds are shown and spread pretty fast. It's really a toss up.

* The "dying conservative" generational thing is a figment of your imagination. Just look at how leftists liberals treated vets after Vietnam in the 1970s. Where was this powerful "conservative generation" thing then? It didn't exist. Liberals don't get away with that today and vets are treated with respect. That's a huge shift in favor or conservative patriotic values. Since WWII basically, about 50% have voted blue and 50% have voted red, with a few elections having slightly wider margins of say 60/40 (Reagan). I've never seen this "more conservative" generation you're speaking of. There's a lot of vocal conservatives now, dozens of groups with big followings stronger that even huge media giants, like "Louder with Crowder" or Ben Shapiro's Daily Wire, etc. Ann Counter, Ben Carson, Sean Hannity, Carlson Tucker, Laura Ingraham, etc. all have massive followings.

* It's true that the Dims have shifted demographics and taken some states since Reagan. That's because people like you throw your votes away. They've taken a dozen states and yes, FL and TX and AZ are in danger. Florida has been a swing state since at least 2000. So stop throwing away your vote! Also, the pendulum shifts the other way too. People fleeing left states consolidate in red states and make those deeper red.

Edited to add: *SCOTUS had a vacancy going into 2016 election. We could realistically be looking at a VERY YOUNG leftist SCOTUS by about 6-3 margin. Instead, we have a relatively young 5-4 Conservative SCOTUS, and it might very well be 7-2 before 2020 or if Trump likely wins it's an almost certainty by 2024. Think about a 7-2 pro-Constitution SCOTUS. And even Sotomayor is a diabetic (known health problems) so it could even be an 8-1 Conservative Court if Trump wins re-election.

 

[Andy54Hawken]

While having a conversation with someone who is genuinely interested in hearing what the person's viewpoint is...
Is indeed worthwhile...it can easily be hampered or derailed with terms , words and definitions that each side does not agree with.

Speaking only for myself...I try to use the actual name for things , as opposed to labels which can place a artificial and often arbitrary "value" or perspective on the item.

I also try not to '"correct" the other person in their use of a term or word that I disagree with...
I will however , use the actual name , and , if asked , then explain why I prefer the actual name versus a label , and then move on...With the folks that are genuinely interested this has worked in the past...

If on the other hand its someone with a closed mind , and who is just there to argue...
What's the point...?
No need to engage with those people....its a waste of time and effort....which is better spent on those who actually want to learn.
Andy

 

[DB is Here]

Gentlemen, let's knock off the accusations, have the debate but let's not let it get personal or unfortunately this thread will be closed.

 

[DivCurlGrad72]

Counter points. You've been brainwashed by the media and don't think critically.

We often get stuck focusing on and wallowing in all things negative. Thanks for the positive reminder.

 

[dancinghippos]

I have changed the minds of a few. It can be done. It helps to be friendly, listen to where they are coming from. Really listen, don't just look for a good interruption point. When they KNOW you are hearing them and respect what they say, they are more inclined to listen to and respect what you say. Make clear points. No long rants about black helicopters. Know some real facts that you can prove, and be willing/able to prove them. You can't expect 100% success, but it will be better than 0.

When you have conversed for a while, offer to teach your new friend to shoot. Your gun, your ammo, take them to the range, free lunch included. Teach the safety rules before you get to the range. On the drive or at lunch before you go. State each rule, and explain it. Make them repeat the rules back to you so you know they know. They just learned that "this gun nut" isn't some Yahoo who shoots in the air. You care about safety.

When you get to the range, start with a .22. No hand cannons that will hurt or scare them. .22. They will hit what they aim at and be proud of their accomplishment. That may be enough for the day. If they want to try something bigger, use a 9mm or a little smaller.

If they want to learn with rifles, use the same strategy. Small first. Leave the .300 WinMag at home.

THE WHOLE POINT IS THAT THEY HAVE A WIN. When they leave the range with you that day, they have a smile on their face, and they have lost fear of guns.