Are polls very wrong or are we on the losing end of public consensus?

[teflon6string]

Politician: "What is the public's opinion on this issue?"

Analyst: "What do you want it to be?"

 

[DivCurlGrad72]

I don't see a lot of resistance popping up to fight new legislation.

The flood of anti-gun rhetoric is really overwhelming right now (as usual after such events). I too keep hoping for some strong pro-2A voices to rise above the din.

 

[E4mafia]

Should we believe the opposite of these polls is true. Maybe the support among the populace and politicians is for greater respect of the 2A and less restrictions on firearms.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if its just calling fellow senators and politicians across the good ol' boys network at some country club for polling.

 

[dcfranzen]

Polls are not necessarily true or false.

Polls are used by those who are in the business of influencing people toward a specific agenda goal by their clients. Often, polls are used by political parties to gain consensus and support for themselves, their party, and the party's agendas.

We can use the aggregate of polls to discern agendas and the direction the power people are herding the sheeple.

 

[GOG]

It's disinformation from the manipulators.
WE outnumber them and WE outgun them. Don't believe the hype.
The left wants you scared and hopeless because they don't have the numbers they pretend to have through lies and distortion.
Stop buying into their lies and trust your own intelligence.

They can't win unless they lie and cheat, so why would their polling admit that?
In the end, we win.

 

[albin25]

POLLSTER: (On phone) "Would you like to participate in a poll about saving our children?"

SOCCERMOM: "Oh my (puts TV on pause, puts down cookie)... of course!

GUN-OWNER: (Puts down tools, wipes hands)...x@f&u#!! (hangs up, goes back to work)

..... and that's pretty much how it's done.

 

[BSG 75]

If these were actual exiting polls or largely conducted on a city by city basis nation wide then I would be a little more worried. When the sample sizes get bigger than 1 or 2 thousand and end up around 1 or 2 million then its time to be worried.

Anyone who has taken a college-level course in statistics - as I have - knows that you don't need a huge sample size to characterize a population. A surprisingly small sample size can accurately characterize a much larger population as long as the sample is truly random. Increasing the sample size past a certain point doesn't significantly increase the accuracy of the study. In other words, a small sample above a certain minimum size does as well as a larger sample. You are never going to see a poll with a sample size of "1 or 2 million" because it would be an unnecessary waste of time and money gathering that much data.

There are multiple calculators available online that calculate the minimum sample size necessary to characterize a population of a given size with a given level of confidence and margin of error.

Sample Size Calculator and Tips for Determining Sample Size | SurveyMonkey

How many people need to take your survey for statistically significant results? Use our sample size calculator and see how the sample size formula works.

www.surveymonkey.com

Sample Size Calculator - Confidence Level, Confidence Interval, Sample Size, Population Size, Relevant Population - Creative Research Systems

Creative Research Systems offers a free sample size calculator online. Learn more about our sample size calculator, and request a free quote on our survey systems and software for your business.

surveysystem.com

Sample Size Calculator by Raosoft, Inc.

www.raosoft.com

There are 153 million registered voters in the US. Use that as the population size. For a margin of error of plus-minus 3% and with 95% confidence used by that Fox News poll plug the numbers into the calculator and it says you need a sample size of 1,849 to characterize that 153 million population with 95% confidence the "real" number you would get if you sampled 100% of the population would be within 3% of the number your 1,849 sample size gave you.

 

[MannyGlocks]

BSG,

ZZZZzzzzzz, cough, huh, whazzat, zzzzzzzz...

 

[TheHumungus]

Poll: GOP Voters Support Gun Rights over Gun Control Nearly 3 to 1

While Sen. Majority Mitch McConnell gives ground on more gun laws Republican voters support gun rights over gun control.

www.breitbart.com

 

[arakboss]

Poll: GOP Voters Support Gun Rights over Gun Control Nearly 3 to 1

While Sen. Majority Mitch McConnell gives ground on more gun laws Republican voters support gun rights over gun control.

www.breitbart.com

That's a slightly more encouraging poll but it doesn't address how, much of the country who are independents, democrats, etc are feeling. Even if we had a 100% of Republicans on board we would still have a tough fight. If Sen. McConnell lets any of these issues come to the floor for a vote, I'm afraid that a few Republicans will vote for firearm restrictions. The POTUS will likely sign them too.

 

[TheHumungus]

That's a slightly more encouraging poll but it doesn't address how, much of the country who are independents, democrats, etc are feeling. Even if we had a 100% of Republicans on board we would still have a tough fight. If Sen. McConnell lets any of these issues come to the floor for a vote, I'm afraid that a few Republicans will vote for firearm restrictions. The POTUS will likely sign them too.

Totally agree with this. I am more pessimistic than most of my friends. I think a new Assault Weapons Ban is better than 50% and so-called "Red Flag Laws" are almost a certainty, but will be challenged to the Supreme Court. Feckless, Cowardly Republicans have been successfully bullied by the media into cowardice by the "Do Something!" cries on cable news 24/7. Trump's inner gun-banner came out on Bump Stocks, and he'll sign anything that hits his desk to get a "deal". If a new Assault Weapons Ban is passed, it will never be repealed in our lifetime (I'm in my 50's). Sad to think all the family heirlooms I've spent over 30 years collecting will not be enjoyed by my kids, but instead locked away to brought out only in an emergency...

 

[nwslopoke]

Is the question assault weapons or semi auto weapons? Any ban would cover both but many don't understand that. Once they label anything they don't like, soon to include knives under the assault weapons umbrella, then poll the same people.

 

[mrblond]

We're outnumbered. Flat out. All we have is the constitution and the Supreme Court.

Out numbered and its only going to get worse with the little commies getting crapped out of the public schools and collages these days.

 

[titsonritz]

Right or wrong, who gives a crap what the "polls" say? What team would you rather be on, the 20% heavily armed to the teeth crowd or with the 80% unarmed crying pussies?

 

[Andy54Hawken]

Poles aren't wrong , if you go to those places where , when dancing , the ladies clothes fall off.....
Andy

 

[GUNARCHER]

any data published will be slanted to demoralize us.

 

[GOG]

This:

 

[arakboss]

That's a slightly more encouraging poll but it doesn't address how, much of the country who are independents, democrats, etc are feeling. Even if we had a 100% of Republicans on board we would still have a tough fight. If Sen. McConnell lets any of these issues come to the floor for a vote, I'm afraid that a few Republicans will vote for firearm restrictions. The POTUS will likely sign them too.

Here's one of the Republican defectors that is pursuing gun control (no surprise): Sen. Collins on gun control: Solution is possible if Dems don't 'play political games'.

"If we can come together working with President Trump working with colleagues from both sides of the aisle and say that if you advertise the sale of a firearm over the Internet there should be a background check, that makes sense to me," Collins said.

Idaho + Northwest Firearm Classified Ad = Background Check (in her mind)

Edit: Note she doesn't allow for C&R purchases to be excluded.

 

[dancinghippos]

I fear we lose every time one of these mass shootings happens. The DNC/media cartel take every opportunity to ram the message home. More people need to challenge the deception and one-sided reporting. Please read this. Get onto the comments of every online paper and start reporting the other side.

Getting the message heard by enough people

We have less than a year until all the TV commercials and news stories attacking gun ownership start. No doubt the "blame the gun" people will have some initiatives for the ballot and lots of Bloomberg money pushing them. How do combat that? Get the truth heard early and often. Start now...

www.northwestfirearms.com

 

[dancinghippos]

In October 2018, the Washington Post enumerated and named each of 1035 victims of mass shooters since 1966. Add another 30 or so since and you have 1065. That averages about 20 per year. ICE is required to publish the crime statistics of criminals they deport every year for crime reasons, not just overstays or illegal entry. In each of 2017 and 2018, the homicides were 2050 and 2030 respectively. Each year was 100x as many as the deaths from mass shootings. Add to that thousands of kidnappings, burglaries, rapes, and similar violent crimes. Yet an entire political party, plus the news and entertainment industry ignore that so as to punish innocent gun owners, while at the same time vilifiying anyone who is concerned about other killings.
How can you help? Make sure this knowledge is known.
This is the 2018 report

https://www.ice.gov/doclib/about/offices/ero/pdf/eroFY2018Report.pdf