Surviving the crash

[Burt Gummer]

What currency would or could replace the US Dollar as a reserve currency?

Certainly not the Russian Ruble.
Who would realistically trust China and its currency.
Perhaps the EURO, but some of the countries in the European Union don't even trust the Euro.
Crypto? Your electronic wallet can get wiped out pretty darn easily.
Gold? Maybe. It has a better chance of holding value in hard times than most things.

If times get really hard, booze and cigarettes might be the new currency.
Mel Tappan thought .22 ammo would become the new world currency after crash of civilization.

What is your opinion?

WEF already has a global currency in the works. We are the sledgehammer for what the WEF wants (as a whole; no red/blue differentiation required). Once they eventually obtain their goals we will be discarded; as in we will have financial parity with all others across the globe. On track for 2030.

Please don't mention Biden or politics with that red banner looming on here unless you are wanting to get this thread closed.

It goes far beyond that in reality anyway. Both 'sides' are beholden to our financial overlords and are nothing more than stage actors.

 

[ATCclears]

More than half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years, she points out.

"Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE's existing mortgages," she wrote in the report, adding that the sector is facing "a huge refinancing wall."

Morgan Stanley issues apocalyptic real estate warning

Morgan Stanley expects over half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages to be up for refinancing in the next couple of years

www.rt.com

 

[arakboss]

More than half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years, she points out.

"Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE's existing mortgages," she wrote in the report, adding that the sector is facing "a huge refinancing wall."

Morgan Stanley issues apocalyptic real estate warning

Morgan Stanley expects over half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages to be up for refinancing in the next couple of years

www.rt.com

Too bad we can't convert some CREs into residential housing. It might solve two problems at once.

How is the CRE refi wall going to affect REITS?

 

[The Heretic]

 

[aasbra]

Too bad we can't convert some CREs into residential housing. It might solve two problems at once.

How is the CRE refi wall going to affect REITS?

There are developers who have been converting commercial space into housing. But as one can imagine, lots of logistics to work through from a zoning/permitted use standpoint with municipalities, plus the costs of retrofitting a commercial space to be suitable for residential dwellings.

 

[arakboss]

There are developers who have been converting commercial space into housing. But as one can imagine, lots of logistics to work through from a zoning/permitted use standpoint with municipalities, plus the costs of retrofitting a commercial space to be suitable for residential dwellings.

I was thinking about the artistic types of city folks that live in warehouse flats and the like. Many of them may not be legally converted.

 

[Provincial]

Local governments are loath to allow commercial space to be converted to residential because they get a lot more tax revenue from commercial.

Tax relief legislation greatly limited taxation of residential real estate, and it passed because government got too greedy. It expanded without becoming more efficient, and passed that cost onto the property owner. Residential values grew as a result of inflation and greater demand. The demand part is where government benefited, since inflation raised its costs. When property taxes got too high, the voters revolted, and it ended up putting a cap on tax increases for residential housing.

Commercial real estate had also been squeezed by property taxes, and also by over-valuation. I know of one property carried on the tax rolls for $1.1 Million, but when sold barely brought in $200,000. This was a back-door way of raising tax rates. A reform brought in changes in the way valuations were calculated, but commercial real estate remains a cash cow for local government because commercial real estate owners/tenants are too small a voter base to be a threat.

The commercial space is valued far higher per square foot of land than residential. One reason is multi-story buildings, but also the idea that property taxes should be an expense to the business and passed on to the consumer as a "hidden" tax. This is the rationale for charging higher taxes on commercial property, and the higher tax revenues are why local governments want to keep commercial property from converting to residential.

As urban areas deteriorate, business (especially small business) is having a hard time surviving. Storefronts empty first, then upstairs office space. As commuting becomes more expensive and difficult/unsafe, employers flee the city center, and the downward spiral accelerates. The city is in a tough situation. It has to make the central city attractive to people with enough money to fund the government, but in order to attract them, it needs to be clean, safe, affordable, and interesting/enjoyable. That will cost a huge amount of money! And take decades of dedication and wise governance. What do you think the chances are for Portland or Seattle to succeed?

 

[VinnieBoomBah]

Local governments are loath to allow commercial space to be converted to residential because they get a lot more tax revenue from commercial.

And campaign contributions!

 

[Provincial]

And campaign contributions!

I believe that the campaign contributions will dry up as conditions get worse for commercial property owners. If they haven't dropped off already. Wheeler probably only survived because the other option was so much worse.

One only has to look a New York City fifty years ago, or Detroit somewhat later to see where things are headed for commercial property owners. NYC bled commercial property owners dry in the mid-20th Century, and they quit investing/maintaining there. It was turned around later in the Century by visionaries, but small, local shops were still viable then. Times have changed, and small business is a loser in the urban areas because of government policy.

Even large, national or international commercial property companies (Real Estate Investment Trusts and mall operators) are feeling the squeeze from the internet. Why make a trek to downtown when you can shop from the safety and cleanliness of your own home? I was in a store at Clackamas Town Center recently, and it was starting to fall apart from lack of upkeep. The Canary in the mine has died.

 

[Mono1]

That will cost a huge amount of money! And take decades of dedication and wise governance. What do you think the chances are for Portland or Seattle to succeed?

Well Said, and No. That ain't happenin'. I'm Lovin' watching SF go down in flames. We are watching these areas self destruct by an absence of Values.

End of story.

 

[Provincial]

There is an Over-the Top theory that the demise of San Francisco is being orchestrated by a group that intends to run it into the ground to crash property values. The theory says that this group intends to swoop in and buy the prime distressed properties at pennies on the dollar, then install a government that will clean up the mess and make property values soar.

This is so far out that it is on the edge of parody, but the current suicidal moves of the present government don't make sense. They are either absolutely mentally ill, or there may be some truth to this rumor.

 

[Longwalkhome]

U.S. Bank Lending Sees Biggest Drop Since 1973, Surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis

freerepublic.com

 

[arakboss]

More than half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years, she points out.

"Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE's existing mortgages," she wrote in the report, adding that the sector is facing "a huge refinancing wall."

Morgan Stanley issues apocalyptic real estate warning

Morgan Stanley expects over half of the $2.9 trillion in US commercial mortgages to be up for refinancing in the next couple of years

www.rt.com

Another bad sign for CRE office space.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/business/commercial-real-estate-banks-offices/index.html

 

[ATCclears]

There is an Over-the Top theory that the demise of San Francisco is being orchestrated by a group that intends to run it into the ground to crash property values. The theory says that this group intends to swoop in and buy the prime distressed properties at pennies on the dollar, then install a government that will clean up the mess and make property values soar.

This is so far out that it is on the edge of parody, but the current suicidal moves of the present government don't make sense. They are either absolutely mentally ill, or there may be some truth to this rumor.

Unknown.

A bunch of the satire on The Babylon Bee has come true...

 

[NobullSKS]

How bad would things have to get to purchase someone else's hand loads? Maybe in the case all your equipment was lost in some way…… if you load already.

Or what salesmen ship would you think you'd put up, if you had the means?

????
"I never had a double charge…"
"I never had a squib…"
"I've been loading 30 years….."

 

[Provincial]

Unknown.

A bunch of the satire on The Babylon Bee has come true...

Mark Twain said: "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."

 

[The Heretic]

How bad would things have to get to purchase someone else's hand loads? Maybe in the case all your equipment was lost in some way…… if you load already.

Or what salesmen ship would you think you'd put up, if you had the means?

????
"I never had a double charge…"
"I never had a squib…"
"I've been loading 30 years….."

WROL and I was very careful and I did not fear reprisals.

 

[NobullSKS]

WROL and I was very careful and I did not fear reprisals.

Forgive my denseness….. WROL?
Something like…."at your own risk"…?

 

[The Heretic]

Forgive my denseness….. WROL?
Something like…."at your own risk"…?

Without Rule Of Law - i.e., a scenario where someone cannot bring a lawsuit against you.

I don't trust reloads by other people; I've had commercial reloads blow out on me three times. Fortunately no one was seriously injured.

 

[Burt Gummer]

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