Stock market on fire

[CoastRange57]

It took over 10 years for the stock market to come back after the Great Depression.
25 years now. And the Japanese are still waiting to see there previous high.

My point is?
Sometimes it's real Bad.

Completely different market dynamics now. Any comparisons to the Great Depression are anecdotal at best. This market could be back up in less than 6 months. And could crash again in less than 1 if some other outlandish manufactured geo political event happens. Electronic trading will see to that.

 

[CoastRange57]

Oh I'm thinking a lot bigger Crazy is coming our way.

The front side of the storm has gone through. Were in the eye.
I'm worried about the back side.

Anyways lets check back in around X-Mass. You can all laugh at me.






I hope.

I agree fully. The way society is behaving now, the way the governments are manipulating things, and the societal unrest is very concerning. Unless this country gets its sh*t together and stops being manipulated by these dark forces it is going to get real. All the sh*t that has been going on it merely testing the waters, seeing how the whole thing works and then some kind of big sh*t problem situation is going to arise.

The Democrats are so focused on destroying our country right now, that it is going to be a long rocky slope to get some semblance of order, and trying to predict what kind of big crazy gets whipped out this time is impossible. I just know it will be devastating whatever it is going to be.

 

[CoastRange57]

If you were in the market before today you crushed it today. I took some money off the table today to keep some liquidity and lock in some profit. I used almost all my cash to average down when things got bad. 45 days ago Boeing could be had for under $100. Today it closed over $200 and is just one example.

Yep, I did too. Fairly good chunk too. 3 years worth of living expenses locked in a safe cash account. But my expenses are not high. Still did not reduce my money in play by that much. I did hold my Boeing though.

 

[The Heretic]

The front side of the storm has gone through. Were in the eye.
I'm worried about the back side.

That's pretty much my thought. I don't think it is going to be worse, but I think it will catch some people by surprise despite the warnings that there is more to come.

After all, this is 2020 and we are not even half way thru yet. Still more "fun" to come.

As for being close to retirement - I am, for all intents and purposes, as good as there - now. Less than two months away from FRA, without a job, without health insurance, unemployment at its highest since before I was born, no job to go back to, and no job prospects.

Put a fork in it.

Done.

 

[JuglansRegia]

The market is up, getting close to were it was before the Rona hit, Vegas odds still have Trump winning, pretty good considering all that has happened so far this year, and we haven't even had a presidential debate yet, that will be a spectacle for the ages.

 

[MTpockets]

I would be worried about the steep increase in Capital Gains if there is a Capitol Loss this November.

Think a figure around 40'ish % was tossed around by a politician.

 

[ma96782]

Well, I'm happier than last week.

Aloha, Mark

 

[ma96782]

Will the fear of Coronavirus finally curb the social gatherings/riots?

Coronavirus cases are climbing again in the South and the West. Will crowded protests spark bigger outbreaks?

Who's set to bet on another stock market decline?

Aloha, Mark

 

[JohnnyMac]

I opened an E-Trade account in early April and have (according to my portfolio this morning) a total gain of +49.13% on my investment. That ain't bad.....

 

[parallax]

I am wondering what the impact will be when the PPP ( paroll protection program) money runs out, and everything settles down, to something closer to reality Waiting to see the real impact, not this inflated artificially propped up version of the economy.

 

[Steelturtle]

I am wondering what the impact will be when the PPP ( paroll protection program) money runs out, and everything settles down, to something closer to reality Waiting to see the real impact, not this inflated artificially propped up version of the economy.

That and the unemployment boost that ends in July....My bet is alot of hungry people come Xmas

Of which I could very well be one.....

 

[The Heretic]

Will the fear of Coronavirus finally curb the social gatherings/riots?

Coronavirus cases are climbing again in the South and the West. Will crowded protests spark bigger outbreaks?

Who's set to bet on another stock market decline?

Aloha, Mark

Not yet. Just made it back to Feb/Mar levels yesterday. I still need some more earnings to make up for the months of no earnings, and then the months of no earnings that are to come when we have another downturn later. I think June/July will be ok, but when the UI expansion expires end of July and Congress doesn't extend/expand UI, and there is no more stimulus, and then we have a resurgence of CV-19, then we will maybe see another downturn. Unemployment rates will flatten at about 10% and it will be apparent how many self-employed people are unemployed - that isn't counted yet because they don't have the systems working to pay benefits for that yet.

So at some point, I will say enough, go to cash (money market funds) in my IRAs (Roth first, then the regular IRA). I think I will leave the 401K as is because I can change its allocation on a finer grained basis and do that overnight - it is less than 20% of my retirement funds so I can leave that in play.

Later, when the market bottoms out again, has to be more than 20% down, then I will jump back in wit the regular IRA and ride it out.

 

[The Heretic]

That and the unemployment boost that ends in July....My bet is alot of hungry people come Xmas

Of which I could very well be one.....

I probably won't have a job every again - maybe short term contracts or part time projects - but not this year. Too many younger IT staff competing for the jobs and they have better resumes (I am back end only - no JS, no Android, no scripting or dynamic langs, no current front end frameworks, etc.). I am probably retired at this point. I will keep applying and looking, but my plans are taking into account that reality.

So after the end of the year, if no more UI extensions, I will be living on SSI, savings and maybe retirement funds. We'll see. Stuff happens.

 

[The Heretic]

A Booming Stock Market Could Come Back to Bite the Recovery

Policymakers watching the S&P 500 might ease up on the stimulus that helped create the rally.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[P7M13]

Will the fear of Coronavirus finally curb the social gatherings/riots?

Nope, their health is protected by PC Righteousness.

 

[The Heretic]

Just checked my 401K balance - it went up by about 2%

Rate of return YTD is 2% so I am now in the black.

I am now where I was in the first couple months of the year.

Now I need to recoup the lost opportunity earnings, then plan to make up for the earnings I will lose in the last quarter of the year.

Crossing my fingers.

 

[sobo]

Just checked my 401K balance - it went up by about 2%

Rate of return YTD is 2% so I am now in the black.

I am now where I was in the first couple months of the year.

So, you got me curious, so I checked on my accounts this morning...

IRA is up $1,200 since last check on June 3; up $3,600 for the week.
401(k) is up $3,800 since last check on June 3, up $12,600 for the week
Total portfolio rate of return YTD is up 1.88%
Not quite as good as yours, but, as you state, I am also back in the black for year-to-date.

 

[ma96782]

Welll......on a personal level. My GF (nail salon lady) went back to work yesterday. Barriers are, UP and safety equipment put, ON. She was very happy to be working again. And, I'm sure that her customers are also happy. BTW, it's by appointment only and she said that it was BUSY yesterday.

Now I guess I can stop giving her my extra cash and invest again.

And, YES....I reminded her to inform WA unemployment. She said that she asked her daughter to look into making the notification. Though she also said that if she didn't "claim" for the unemployment.....it would automatically stop. Whatever....what do I know?

Next question?

When can I go to Portland. OR to cut my hair and is it even SAFE? NO....I'm NOT going into downtown. Only going to Sandy Blvd.

Thank you "protesters/rioters". You've destroyed the city and given the entire area a black eye. I hope that you've made your mother proud.

Aloha, Mark

 

[gmerkt]

Markets on fire. All that newly created money from the Fed needs some place to go. When the virus hit, the government turned on the taps very quickly. Faster than "usual." So a fast response in the markets might not be such a surprise. There is fire and there is dumpster fire. A new car I looked at in 2010 was $40K for the fully equipped model. This year, the same car is $70K. There are consequences to debasing our currency.

 

[sobo]

There are consequences to debasing our currency.

No one debates that. All the more reason to be out of debt.