Russia attacks Ukraine! WW3 imminent?

[The Heretic]

US spy planes appear to be monitoring a Russian enclave in Europe, possibly looking for signs of nuclear weapons activity

Flight-trackers have spotted US surveillance plans flying near Kaliningrad, a Russian territory in Europe separate from the rest of the country.

news.yahoo.com

Polish Foreign Minister vows swift response if Russia uses nuclear weapons

In case of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine, NATO shouldn’t retaliate with the same type of weapons, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Zbigniew Rau, said in an interview with U.S. news channel NBC on Sept. 28.

news.yahoo.com

Putin's nuclear threats are meant to 'manipulate' global uncertainty and sow confusion — and it's working, expert says

Analysts believe the threat of imminent nuclear war remains low. But Putin's recent threats have undoubtedly escalated the war at home and abroad.

news.yahoo.com

Ukrainian intelligence believes the threat from Russian tactical nuclear weapons to be very high

Ukrainian intelligence services considers the threat of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine to be very high, military intelligence spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky said in a comment to UK newspaper The Guardian on Sept. 27.

news.yahoo.com

Putin could well use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Here’s how America can stop him

Commentary from Fresno writer Daniel Jamison.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

Russia conscripts indigenous Crimeans and deploys them in areas of heavy fighting

OLHA HLUSHCHENKO - THURSDAY, 29 SEPTEMBER 2022, 07:18 The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian occupation authorities in Crimea received an order to conscript, in the first instance, Crimean Tatars, and to deploy them in the areas where the most intense fighting is...

news.yahoo.com

The number of Russians fleeing the country to evade Putin's draft is likely bigger than the original invasion force, UK intel says

On February 24, 190,000 Russians invaded Ukraine. An estimated 194,000 Russians have fled to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Finland alone.

news.yahoo.com

Putin's military lacks 'manpower' but that's just one of 'a lot of other problems,' CIA director says

Putin has ordered a "partial military mobilization," attempting to bring in an additional 300,000 troops to fight in his unprovoked war on Ukraine.

news.yahoo.com

 

[The Heretic]

what annexation means for Ukraine

What Russian annexation means for Ukraine's regions

How will Russia annex four occupied regions it does not fully control, while in the middle of a war?

www.bbc.com

Ukrainians evicted from their homes for refusing to participate in Russia-organised sham referendums

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - THURSDAY, 29 SEPTEMBER 2022, 15:58 Ukrainians who had refused to participate in the sham referendum were evicted from their homes in some settlements of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

news.yahoo.com

 

[arakboss]

Ukraine surrounds Lyman, 5000 Russian troops cut off

KYIV (Reuters) - A Ukrainian presidential adviser said on Friday Russia would have to appeal to Kyiv for Moscow's encircled troops to be allowed out of the Russian stronghold of Lyman in eastern Ukraine if it was concerned about them.
"Today (Russia) will have to ask for an exit from Lyman. Only if, of course, those in (the) Kremlin are concerned with their soldiers, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

Russian units deployed to the area reportedly include Russia's 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, a mechanized infantry brigade from the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army as well as parts of Russia's BARS-13 detachment, a volunteer group.
"The situation is still extremely difficult. The enemy does not stop trying to repel us from Drobysheve. The enemy outnumbers us many times. Attacks are made by infantry with the support of artillery and aviation," the commander of the BARS-13 detachment, Sergei Fomchenkov, said Friday in an interview with the state-run RT network.
"Nevertheless, BARS-13 adamantly holds its positions."
Because the wetlands around Lyman do not lend themselves to effective tank warfare, much of the fighting is likely being carried out by infantry and artillery, said Muzyka.
Lyman, which sits on a key rail crossroads, is one of Russia's last lines of defense before the Donetsk region's eastern border with Luhansk. Together, Donetsk and Luhansk regions — known as the Donbas — are a key war aim for the Kremlin.
Despite the looming threat of encirclement, Russian forces have refused to pull troops out of Lyman in what Muzyka said is likely a tactic to buy time.

Observers believe that Moscow will attempt to use the additional manpower raised as a result of President Vladimir Putin's "partial" mobilization announced last week to shore up its defenses in occupied Ukraine.
Some of these newly mobilized men have already been deployed to the battlefield, including to positions around Lyman, according to Ukraine's Armed Forces.
"The enemy continues to send newly mobilized, low-skilled personnel to the areas of combat operations," Ukraine's General Staff said Thursday in a statement.
By continuing to fight in Lyman, according to Muzyka, Russia can tie down Ukrainian forces while it trains and deploys new recruits to defensive lines ahead of an expected battle for Sievierodonetsk, a major city east of Lyman that fell to Russian forces in June.
But at the same time, the encirclement of a large Russian force — especially following Putin's declaration Friday that Russia was annexing Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions — would be a symbolic and military blow.
The long-term significance of the loss of Lyman will depend on how successfully Moscow can withstand the next wave of attacks by Ukrainian forces, which are seeking to advance further into the Donbas.
"This will definitely be a tactical setback," Muzyka said.
"But whether we're looking at a strategic failure will depend on if there is a massive collapse of Russian lines in Luhansk in the next couple of weeks."

At what point does a Russian tactical nuke enter the scene?

 

[rjmt]

At what point does a Russian tactical nuke enter the scene?

since Lyman is part of the Russian Federation as of this morning and Ukraine forces have now invaded Russia

 

[wired]

I think Russian forces are going to pull back into the new Russian territories where they will be concentrated and strong enough to fend of the Ukranian forces. I think Russia is going to declare the operation over soon. They kinda have to. They were overextended, not winning in the rest of Ukraine and winter is coming up fast. No time to have your army out in the field .

As far as the farce plebiscite in the areas where they had one goes it wouldn't surprise me at all if they actually had the votes in those areas. They're Russian dominated although it would be like Mexico having Mexicans in the border areas of Texas voting to join Mexico. Not going to happen no matter what the residents want

 

[rjmt]

I think Russian forces are going to pull back into the new Russian territories where they will be concentrated and strong enough to fend of the Ukranian forces. I think Russia is going to declare the operation over soon. They kinda have to. They were overextended, not winning in the rest of Ukraine and winter is coming up fast. No time to have your army out in the field .

except that Russia does not fully occupy those territories
this morning Russia demanded that Ukraine stop all hostilities in these territories, including around Lyman which is in territory Russia now claims
I'm waiting to see Putin's next move, many of the first of new troops with no training were in Lyman when it was surrounded by Ukrainian forces overnight

 

[The Heretic]

this morning Russia demanded that Ukraine stop all hostilities in these territories, including around Lyman which is in territory Russia now claims

Which shows how weak Russia is, not to mention hypocritical.

 

[wired]

except that Russia does not fully occupy those territories
this morning Russia demanded that Ukraine stop all hostilities in these territories, including around Lyman which is in territory Russia now claims
I'm waiting to see Putin's next move, many of the first of new troops with no training were in Lyman when it was surrounded by Ukrainian forces overnight

Yes of course Russia demanded that. I think they'll hunker down in the eastern provinces and pull in as many conscripts and regular army as they can to drive Ukrainian forces out. What other choice do they have?

 

[monkeybutler]

Yes of course Russia demanded that. I think they'll hunker down in the eastern provinces and pull in as many conscripts and regular army as they can to drive Ukrainian forces out. What other choice do they have?

I dunno maybe start behaving like civilized people and GTFO of Ukrainian lands entirely, and reabsorb all the Russians they have been shoving into Ukraine over the past several years in a sad, transparent attempt to shift the mix of people and bolster their horsebubblegum land grabs?

Right, of course that will never happen.

 

[arakboss]

Yes of course Russia demanded that. I think they'll hunker down in the eastern provinces and pull in as many conscripts and regular army as they can to drive Ukrainian forces out. What other choice do they have?

They could pack up and go home.

 

[rjmt]

Russian 4th Tank Division is COMBAT INNEFECTIVE

Russian sources also continued to discuss Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Oskil River in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 29. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops attempted to break through Russian defenses near the Kharkiv-Luhansk border in an unspecified location. Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff's Main Operational Department, Oleksiy Hromov, stated on September 29 that the Russian 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army suffered considerable losses over the past few weeks while operating in Kupyansk, which lies near the Oskil River by the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border. As ISW previously reported, the 4th Tank Division lost nearly an entire regiment worth of advanced T-80 tanks during earlier stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast, which suggests that whatever remnants of the 4th Tank Division that are currently operating around near Kupyansk are severely understrength.

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kharkiv Battle Map Draft September 29,2022.png

 

[The Heretic]

The problem is that Russia keeps getting weaker and weaker while Ukraine gets stronger.

This is backing Putin into a corner and I fear he may resort to nukes.

 

[rjmt]

The problem is that Russia keeps getting weaker and weaker while Ukraine gets stronger.

This is backing Putin into a corner and I fear he may resort to nukes.

the Luhansk region is now claimed as part of Russia
with the Russian 4th Tank Division now ineffective, the path is wide open to Ukraine forces
we'll see if Ukraine continues their advance over the Luhansk border and what Putin's response is

 

[albin25]

If Putin does decide to go nuclear...
... can we expect they'll work as well as his pipelines?

 

[wired]

They could pack up and go home.

Not going to happen. You know that. Russians are WAY too stubborn for that. WAY too stubborn.

 

[The Heretic]

If Putin does decide to go nuclear...
... can we expect they'll work as well as his pipelines?

 

[made in china]

Wild guess here.....

If Putin did decide to use a nuclear option, there's a strong chance of a coup occurring. Depending on what kind of nuclear he uses, those involved probably realize it's guaranteed death.

If he used tactical, Russia would likely get punished one way or another by almost everyone who matters. I'm quite certain even China would have to take a stand, nobody wants nukes to be considered tactically.

Also, I'm highly concerned that the current US regime would not deal with the situation appropriately, in fact, I'm quite certain our response would be full retard.

 

[wired]

Wild guess here.....

If Putin did decide to use a nuclear option, there's a strong chance of a coup occurring. Depending on what kind of nuclear he uses, those involved probably realize it's guaranteed death.

If he used tactical, Russia would likely get punished one way or another by almost everyone who matters. I'm quite certain even China would have to take a stand, nobody wants nukes to be considered tactically.

Also, I'm highly concerned that the current US regime would not deal with the situation appropriately, in fact, I'm quite certain our response would be full retard.

So what do you think the international response would be? Sanctions? Invade Russia? Hahahaha. Russians aren't going to do squat. They love the guy and are afraid of him That is the definition of a leader in Russia.

 

[made in china]

So what do you think the international response would be? Sanctions? Invade Russia? Hahahaha. Russians aren't going to do squat. They love the guy and are afraid of him That is the definition of a leader in Russia.

Probably whatever happens will be something I hadn't considered. I'm just a pleb