Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[Cavedweller]

I keep hearing that tens of thousands of people die in the US every year from the normal Flu viruses. Honestly I haven't personally known one person who has died from the flu. I've known plenty of people who have died from heart related problems, strokes, diabetes related conditions, car accidents etc. I have had the flu multiple times myself and I've known people who have had the flu but none have died from it.

How many of you have known somebody who has died from the flu?

Is it possible that the annual flu death numbers are exaggerated?

Where could a I find a state by state breakdown of the death count by year from the flu?

I was thinking the same thing. Started digging into this a few days ago.

It turns out the CDC doesn't track the flu. It tracks "Influenza-like-illness." (ILI). So far this year, the CDC has tested less than 1 million cases for the flu, and about a quarter of those were positive. So there are about 250,000 confirmed cases of the flu in the US this year. The larger numbers that you see (32 - 45 million) are estimates based on modeling.

So comparing CDC flu estimates to confirmed cases of COVID-19 is comparing apples to oranges.

As far as mortality goes, the CDC lumps influenza and pneumonia together. The numbers of flu deaths on the CDC website (18,000 - 46,000) are estimates.

Here is a list of P & I deaths by state:

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

About 99,000 people die of hospital acquired infections (HAI) each year. About 15% of those infections are pneumonia (either viral or bacterial). So about 15,000 people die each year of pneumonia they acquired in the hospital. It looks like a large chunk of P & I mortality is due to HAI.

https://patientcarelink.org/improving-patient-care/healthcare-acquired-infections-hais/

 

[arakboss]

Thinking of going to a concert tonight involving leap year in Portland. Given this virus scar is this a bad idea. I am a very young senior.

As somebody who is worried about social security being available when I retire, I say go to the concert, mingle and have a good time. I'm kidding!

 

[3MTA3]

Oregon Coronavirus patient teaches school in Lake Oswego elementary school. This means he either contracted it there or has had opportunity to expose the students or both.

Just like every cold and flu season as soon as it hits the schools it's game on. Time to avoid crowds for a bit and maybe do you grocery shopping during off hours.

Oregon coronavirus patient lives in Washington County, works at Lake Oswego elementary school

The patient had contact with people in Forest Hills Elementary School at Lake Oswego.

www.oregonlive.com

 

[Hop Sing]

Author argues the coronavirus behind the COVID-19 outbreak may have leaked from a Chinese virology lab

Beijing authorities are now clearly scrambling to correct the serious problems with the way their labs handle deadly pathogens.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Thinking of going to a concert tonight involving leap year in Portland. Given this virus scar is this a bad idea. I am a very young senior.

Lake Oswego school person got it from someone in the community. Perhaps from someone who thought they had the flue, like the Washington state high school kid. Perhaps from a carrier with no symptoms.

That someone has probably infected lots of others. The lake Oswego school person has probably infected lots of others In the school and perhaps elsewhere. And likewise those that r now infected and probably don't know it are walking carriers.

In other words it is already out there. Why expose urself? Costco here is nuts This am and we aren't close to lake Oswego. Imo this will grow exponentially. I have talked first hand to business associates in China and we are in for some though times economically imo. Something like 2/3 of the small businesses have went under in places over there because they could not cope with loss of cash flow for 3 months.

Imo we will go through exact same cycle as China did. Panic at first, then big shutdown of work places etc. then businesses will try to figure out how to keep going and will come up with strategies such as come in one day per week to minimize exposures. It will take a while to get back to normal. Right now we are just at the start of the exponential growth curve imo.

the biggest concern I see is that they plan to reopen that elementary school on wednesday after cleaning. There is a huge chance there are lots of people coming back who are infected and don't know it. Then they will infect those who aren't infected. Then they will shut down the school etc. That school is in clackamas county.

in contrast, Multnomah county has said they would most likely shut down a class for 14 days which is a lot more sensible than what they are doing in clackamas county. The disease is in the people, not on the floors, so cleaning the floors is not the solution.

 

[3MTA3]

I was thinking the same thing. Started digging into this a few days ago.

It turns out the CDC doesn't track the flu. It tracks "Influenza like illness." (ILI). So far this year, the CDC has tested less than 1 million cases for the flu, and about a quarter of those were positive. So there are about 250,000 confirmed cases of the flu in the US this year. The larger numbers that you see (32 - 45 million) are estimates based on modeling.

So comparing CDC flu estimates to confirmed cases of COVID-19 is comparing apples to oranges.

As far as mortality goes, the CDC lumps influenza and pneumonia together. The numbers of flu deaths on the CDC website (18,000 - 46,000) are estimates.

Here is a list of P & I deaths by state:

Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

www.cdc.gov

Also remember that those most likely to die from the flu are elderly and other folks with medical conditions. In our more active years the vast majority of people you know are typically still robust enough to simply get sick.

 

[EHJ]

Also remember that those most likely to die from the flu are elderly and other folks with medical conditions. In our more active years the vast majority of people you know are typically still robust enough to simply get sick.

(Psssttt... The Spanish Flu killed more folks between 18 and 35 than almost any other demographic outside of pregnant women...)

 

[fredball]

Coronavirus Updates: First Death in U.S. Confirmed in Seattle Area
The announcement comes as a person in King County, Washington, near Seattle, became the first in the country to die after contracting coronavirus.

Right Now
A person in King County, Washington, near Seattle, has become the first in the country to die after contracting the coronavirus.

 

[LSWC]

The trend seems to be ~3 weeks after first reports come in deaths begin to be logged.

 

[3MTA3]

(Psssttt... The Spanish Flu killed more folks between 18 and 35 than almost any other demographic outside of pregnant women...)

Yes that was 1918 to 1920. Few of us were alive a hundred years ago nor was the medical community as well prepared.

I was referring to recent epidemics and why few of us seem to have lost as many friends as we would expect from the CDC reports. Sorry that wasn't as obvious as I had thought.

Hopefully, Coronavirus won't be as lethal, but we really don't know yet.

 

[Retired Guy]

The US has reported its first coronavirus death: a man in his 50s in Washington

The man had underlying health problems that put him at high risk of developing a severe case of the virus.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Josh89]

Did anyone watch the trump press conference? At work and didn't get to. Was just wondering what you guys got from it if you did.

 

[EHJ]

Did anyone watch the trump press conference? At work and didn't get to. Was just wondering what you guys got from it if you did.

He looked tired... and solemn.

 

[nammac]

One dead in Seattle just now.

President Trump Confirms 1st U.S. Coronavirus Death; U.S. Heightens Travel Warnings

A man in his 50s has died, according to Washington state health officials. It's the first death from COVID-19 in the U.S. The president defended the administration's response.

www.npr.org

So it's here and as close as Lake Oswego, maybe even closer, there's really no way to know. Perhaps it's time to hunker down, get the blood in the doorposts and let this plague pass by...

 

[Mikej]

[

Did anyone watch the trump press conference? At work and didn't get to. Was just wondering what you guys got from it if you did.

Difficult to watch/listen to, as usual. I only watch/listen for a little bit. Don't get me wrong, I believe in him, and believe he wants nothing but what is best for the American people. But damn, he looks like he's wearing white make up on his eyes. And he needs to start talking like a mature, adult human.

 

[ilikegunspdx]

So it's here and as close as Lake Oswego, maybe even closer, there's really no way to know. Perhaps it's time to hunker down, get the blood in the doorposts and let this plague pass by...

Imo it's no different than the flu in terms of where it is. We don't say, "the flu is in such and such suburb". We do say, "there is a lot of flu going around now" usually referring to an entire region such as the northwest, or to the whole country. IMO it's out there in the general population right now, but the exponential growth curve has not started yet.

 

[CountryGent]

Yikes!

 

[ilikegunspdx]

Imo it's no different than the flu in terms of where it is. We don't say, "the flu is in such and such suburb". We do say, "there is a lot of flu going around now" usually referring to an entire region such as the northwest, or to the whole country. IMO it's out there in the general population right now, but the exponential growth curve has not started yet.

Here is a representative typical bell shaped curve for flu or similar outbreak. The black x is where we are today IMO. Note that timelines shown may not be indicative of corona virus, it's just an example.

 

[arakboss]

Here is a representative typical bell shaped curve for flu or similar outbreak. The black x is where we are today IMO. Note that timelines shown may not be indicative of corona virus, it's just an example.
View attachment 664687

Your opinion on where we are today "X", is pretty optimistic or pessimistic depending on how you look at it

Seriously though, I hope we don't go above the red line on the graph before this is over.

 

[TheHumungus]

Sadly, naive people will ALWAYS fall for media-driven panics. They've also watched too many movies. The people who make up the press in the United States, including all local news, are despicable human beings who lie for a living and are only interested in scaring others enough to keep eyeballs on their advertisements or frightening them to vote a certain way. Instead of wearing a mask, hoarding groceries, and freaking out, maybe just try turning the news off and going about your business.