Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[wp4]

The virus has run rampant in Washington because it got a hold of old and compromised individuals. If you look at the hard numbers who died I believe that would support my position. The last time I checked in Clark County three had died and two were in the 80s and the third person was 57 with compromised health. Absolutely those people need to be insulated from the rest of the population.

Ok... there's lots of old people, in the whole country. And 20% of hospitalizations in the US so far are in those under 44 years of age.

There's been a lot of this back and forth here. One of the reasons why this thread is so long. I dont want to waste more space debating, I've made my case. We've seen this go poorly in every country it gets going strong in so far. Time will tell.

 

[Phantom Man]

Your post seems to imply that only 10% of less than 20% (<2% of total) require hospitalizations. Not according to WHO:
According to the new report, "while most people with COVID-19 develop mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease requiring hospitalization and oxygen support and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit to try to prevent the most severe complications including septic shock — a significant drop in blood pressure that can lead to stroke, heart or respiratory failure, failure of other organs or death."

I don't trust the WHO as they buried the coronavirus story for China after Taiwan told them in December that this was a major flu issue. Then condemn USA for stopping flights from China.
also, the virus has mutated a few times and when it does it gets weaker not stronger. Time will tell if I'm wrong... Sweden is my test pilot.

 

[Phantom Man]

Ok... there's lots of old people, in the whole country. And 20% of hospitalizations in the US so far are in those under 44 years of age.

There's been a lot of this back and forth here. One of the reasons why this thread is so long. I dont want to waste more space debating, I've made my case. We've seen this go poorly in every country it gets going strong in so far. Time will tell.

Ok... there's lots of old people, in the whole country. And 20% of hospitalizations in the US so far are in those under 44 years of age.

There's been a lot of this back and forth here. One of the reasons why this thread is so long. I dont want to waste more space debating, I've made my case. We've seen this go poorly in every country it gets going strong in so far. Time will tell.

Time will tell. As for the 20% number I imagine that the hospitals take people and not send them home when they could skewing the numbers. Also if people are in poor health even though young they are more vulnerable.

 

[wp4]

I don't trust the WHO as they buried the coronavirus story for China after Taiwan told them in December that this was a major flu issue. Then condemn USA for stopping flights from China.
also, the virus has mutated a few times and when it does it gets weaker not stronger. Time will tell if I'm wrong... Sweden is my test pilot.

I read your cited article.

"Measures of this extent have not yet been judged necessary in Sweden due to the initially limited spread of the virus"

"However, this may change as the situation develops."

They are doing now what we were doing 4-6 weeks ago, and are leaving the door open for much more restrictions depending on what happens.

 

[Cavedweller]

I don't trust the WHO as they buried the coronavirus story for China after Taiwan told them in December that this was a major flu issue. Then condemn USA for stopping flights from China.
also, the virus has mutated a few times and when it does it gets weaker not stronger. Time will tell if I'm wrong... Sweden is my test pilot.

I agree that WHO is not the most reliable source, but with respect to severity of illness their numbers are pretty typical of other reports.
NYC data as of yesterday:
20011 confirmed cases
3922 hospitalizations (19.6%)
BTW, the chatter for the last couple of days has been that people who can are leaving NYC in droves and fanning out all over the country. Wuhan all over again.

 

[wp4]

Time will tell. As for the 20% number I imagine that the hospitals take people and not send them home when they could skewing the numbers. Also if people are in poor health even though young they are more vulnerable.

Um... hospitals admit those who need the care, regardless of age or "numbers". I'm not sure I understand your point.

You say this isn't worse than the flu, but every time your given a reason why it is, you seem to wave it away by essentially saying "well, those people are old or unhealthy, so of course they'd die, or get a serious case."
Does the death toll or serious case count only matter if they were young and healthy? A case is a case, and each one puts more strain on a healthcare system that isn't designed to take the surge of a pandemic. That's the danger - when the ICUs become overrun, the death rate will go up.

 

[Phantom Man]

I agree that WHO is not the most reliable source, but with respect to severity of illness their numbers are pretty typical of other reports.
NYC data as of yesterday:
20011 confirmed cases
3922 hospitalizations (19.6%)
BTW, the chatter for the last couple of days has been that people who can are leaving NYC in droves and fanning out all over the country. Wuhan all over again.

I would argue there are hundreds of thousands of people with the virus in New York. Confirmed case percentages after that go way down. Remember 70% showed no signs so it is actually being spread through the population unknowingly at high numbers.

 

[Phantom Man]

Um... hospitals admit those who need the care, regardless of age or "numbers". I'm not sure I understand your point.

You say this isn't worse than the flu, but every time your given a reason why it is, you seem to wave it away by essentially saying "well, those people are old or unhealthy, so of course they'd die, or get a serious case."
Does the death toll or serious case count only matter if they were young and healthy? A case is a case, and each one puts more strain on a healthcare system that isn't designed to take the surge of a pandemic. That's the danger - when the ICUs become overrun, the death rate will go up.

I think you misunderstood me. I said the compromised an old should be insulated and that's where the major resources should be spent. The rest is on the Swedish model.
I had a seven hour surgery about three weeks ago at OHSU and on my follow ups I asked my cancer surgeon about this and he supported my position exactly and then I asked my plastic surgeon about it and he said the same thing you were saying about being overrun.

 

[wp4]

I would argue there are hundreds of thousands of people with the virus in New York. Confirmed case percentages after that go way down. Remember 70% showed no signs so it is actually being spread through the population unknowingly at high numbers.

Regardless of how many people already "may" have it, we are seeing the hospitals in high density areas getting overrun. That is the danger, because many more people with survivable cases will die then.

 

[wp4]

I think you misunderstood me. I said the compromised an old should be insulated and that's where the major resources should be spent. The rest is on the Swedish model.

The swedish model is fluid and they can/ will change it. So if your going to use them as a model, dont assume that their current policy is what will have been used for the entirety of the outbreak once it's all over.

Where are you getting the info that 70% of people with it are asymptomatic?

 

[Cavedweller]

I would argue there are hundreds of thousands of people with the virus in New York. Confirmed case percentages after that go way down. Remember 70% showed no signs so it is actually being spread through the population unknowingly at high numbers.

At this point nobody knows. As you say, we shall see. However, there are increasing instances of relatively young and otherwise healthy people succumbing to this disease.

One in Four NYC Hospital Coronavirus Patients Is Under Age 50

Medical staff see wave of people in 20s and 30s seriously afflicted by coronavirus. Meanwhile, most of the fatalities so far are over 65 and male.

thecity.nyc

 

[Phantom Man]

The swedish model is fluid and they can/ will change it. So if your going to use them as a model, dont assume that their current policy is what will have been used for the entirety of the outbreak once it's all over.

You are right. And I'm not trying to be a know it all but I'm looking at what we have done to everybody and trillions of dollars later...

 

[wp4]

You are right. And I'm not trying to be a know it all but I'm looking at what we have done to everybody and trillions of dollars later...

Thanks, I'm not trying to be either.

But I think we've seen in other countries what can and maybe will happen here if we don't take extreme caution. That's what Italy didn't do (yes, I understand the demographics are different there too).

As far as the trillions of dollars, well, that's a different topic altogether, and I'm practically sick to my stomach over it.

 

[Geardo]

Its interesting that Wuhan was ground zero for SARS as well as Covid19 and the location of a level 4 biological weapons research lab. Me thinks it was NOT an accident.

Calling it a weapon lets the chinese off the hook for their barbaric and disgusting practices, hygiene, and wet markets.

 

[Phantom Man]

At this point nobody knows. As you say, we shall see. However, there are increasing instances of relatively young and otherwise healthy people succumbing to this disease.

One in Four NYC Hospital Coronavirus Patients Is Under Age 50

Medical staff see wave of people in 20s and 30s seriously afflicted by coronavirus. Meanwhile, most of the fatalities so far are over 65 and male.

thecity.nyc

As for New York. It's hard to know if that city is more sickly than others but in general hospitals are going to be overly cautious and put people on ventilators because of potential litigation. People sue in New York if they step on bubblegum. I don't know what's going on there but I imagine liability is a factor.

 

[Phantom Man]

I don't have a fish tank anymore so I've been gargling with my fish tank cleaner so I know I am safe..!

 

[wp4]

put people on ventilators because of potential litigation.

Doctors put people on ventilators only when certain medical thresholds have been reached. They are protected from malpractice as long as they follow those guidelines. They don't sit there and think "I better vent them so I don't get sued" and just sedate people left and right and stick a tube down their throat.

That said, I read an article interview of a chinese doctor and he said looking back he wishes he put people on vents sooner. I think the same will be said here when it's all over. I would argue the opposite of your point, which would be doctors probably are waiting too long to vent people because they don't have experience with this virus.

But I'm no more a doc than you, so I'm just guessing.

 

[awshoot]

Its interesting that Wuhan was ground zero for SARS as well as Covid19 and the location of a level 4 biological weapons research lab. Me thinks it was NOT an accident.

The experts who know their stuff are consistent on it not being lab created, they just disagree on whether it is possible the it was an organic virus (so to speak) that escaped. Even the expert saying this is possible, agrees it was not synthesized. Escape is not proven but it seems to be a possibility based on past performance:

Still, lab safety has been a problem in China. "A safety breach at a Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab is believed to have caused four suspected SARS cases, including one death, in Beijing in 2004. A similar accident caused 65 lab workers of Lanzhou Veterinary Research Institute to be infected with brucellosis in December 2019," Huang wrote. "In January 2020, a renowned Chinese scientist, Li Ning, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for selling experimental animals to local markets.

 

[Phantom Man]

Doctors put people on ventilators only when certain medical thresholds have been reached. They are protected from malpractice as long as they follow those guidelines. They don't sit there and think "I better vent them so I don't get sued" and just sedate people left and right and stick a tube down their throat.

I think my surgeon would just agree with you

 

[Cavedweller]

As for New York. It's hard to know if that city is more sickly than others but in general but hospitals are going to be overly cautious and put people on ventilators because of potential litigation. People sue in New York if they step on bubblegum. I don't know what's going on there but I imagine liability is a factor.

Whatever the various percentages may turn out to be, in absolute terms there are several cities where the healthcare system is already overburdened. Europe is a pretty good indicator as well. Healthcare workers are under great physical and psychological stress. They seem to be disproportionately affected, with increasing numbers either under quarantine or ill themselves. Police and ambulance crews are getting ill in increasing numbers (a significant percentage of the NYC police dept. are unable or unwilling to work because of illness or quarantine). In Italy and Spain they are having a hard time keeping up with disposal of the dead. None of these things are good omens.

Almost 7 Percent of NYPD Officers Call Out Sick in One Day Amid Coronavirus

"The increase in the number of employees on sick report was anticipated and given the nature of the virus, it is expected that this number will grow," the NYPD said.

www.newsweek.com