Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Official Thread

[Xaevian]

Wrong post, lol.

 

[winterveil]

13k new cases being reported in China today.
200+ New deaths.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1227743997927530496

If y'all haven't started prepping, now is the time.

 

[leadcounsel]

Confirmed Infections and deaths both jumped about 20% in a day.

Now over 60,000 confirmed infections, up from 40,000 a day ago.
Now over 1,300 deaths, up from 1,100 yesterday.

 

[Unicykle]

If y'all haven't started prepping, now is the time.
[/QUOTE]
With 14 cases in the us i wouldnt put the hazmat suit on just yet.

 

[slimmer13]

This woman that contracted this virus aboard the cruise ship says her symptoms were no worse than a mild cold.

American woman recovering from coronavirus is "feeling good," says symptoms no worse than "mild cold or flu"

Rebecca Frazier from Oregon was one of more than 130 people infected by 2019-nCoV on board the Diamond Princess, which has been quarantined in Yokahama, Japan.

www.google.com

If that is fairly typical, that means that there is likely a vast number of undocumented cases of people infected who never sought treatment. That also means that the mortality rate is far lower than reported.

But the good news is we are all literally going to die

 

[Cavedweller]

"At some point, we we are likely to see community spread in the U.S.," said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

14th American diagnosed with new coronavirus after CDC warned spread was 'likely'

The person who tested positive was one of those evacuated from Wuhan, China, where the disease first emerged, on a flight that landed in California on Feb. 7, according to the CDC. More than 600 people remain in quarantine in the U.S. after being flown out of China last week, officials said.

news.yahoo.com

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic

U.S. Northern Command is bracing for an outbreak of the new coronavirus on U.S. soil, if it should occur.

www.militarytimes.com

 

[winterveil]

With 14 cases in the us i wouldnt put the hazmat suit on just yet.

Three weeks ago there were 579 cases worldwide. May not be time to put the suit on yet, but I'd say it's time to buy one.

 

[Camelfilter]

Three weeks ago there were 579 cases worldwide. May not be time to put the suit on yet, but I'd say it's time to buy one.

Stock up on popcorn, along with your favorite toppings.

...it's going to be a long show.

 

[leadcounsel]

Dire prediction from the CDC Director!

CDC director: More person-to-person coronavirus infections in U.S. likely, but containment still possible

In an interview, the CDC director said person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus is likely to occur in the United States, but containment still possible.

www.statnews.com

CDC director: More person-to-person coronavirus infections in U.S. likely, but containment still possible
By HELEN BRANSWELL FEBRUARY 12, 2020

"... the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, even as he warned that more human-to-human transmission here is likely.

"We're still going to see new cases. We're probably going to see human-to-human transmission within the United States," Dr. Robert Redfield said in an interview with STAT.

He added that "at some point in time it is highly probable that we'll have to transition to mitigation" as a public health strategy... "We're not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into this country," Redfield said...."

 

[Hueco]

Dire prediction from the CDC Director!

CDC director: More person-to-person coronavirus infections in U.S. likely, but containment still possible

In an interview, the CDC director said person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus is likely to occur in the United States, but containment still possible.

www.statnews.com

CDC director: More person-to-person coronavirus infections in U.S. likely, but containment still possible
By HELEN BRANSWELL FEBRUARY 12, 2020

"... the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, even as he warned that more human-to-human transmission here is likely.

"We're still going to see new cases. We're probably going to see human-to-human transmission within the United States," Dr. Robert Redfield said in an interview with STAT.

He added that "at some point in time it is highly probable that we'll have to transition to mitigation" as a public health strategy... "We're not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into this country," Redfield said...."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: We are just now at the end of the Chinese New Year celebration. Many Chinese are wanting to go home (all over the world) and it is only a matter of time until those from Wuhan find their way out into the world, especially with the Chinese government prioritizing free and open trade again.

Guess we'll see.

 

[WWShooter]

Given the numbers today, as compared to the last week, it's pretty clear that someone on China was cooking the books. You can take the old data (late January) and today's cases/deaths and draw a pretty smooth line. This is simply not controlled in mainland China, and no one has any idea how bad it's going to get. Even for the west, the issue isn't individual cases, the issue is what happens if local medical systems are overwhelmed. Yeah, if you can have relatively unlimited medical resources thrown at an individual case, recovery (whatever that looks like) is probable, but throw 100 or 1,000 cases in any city (much less a town) and "serious" case become deaths.

This looks like there's no way really to avoid it if it's local. Be young or lucky and get a mild case, but don't be old or ill - that's a death sentence. I'm old but not ill - who knows?

 

[ATCclears]

R0 (aka R-naught). The number of confirmed cases is still climbing. I expect it will go a LOT higher. ...but in some ways the R0 doesn't appear to be dramatically higher than a typical flu virus. The R0 might be in the range of 2.4 - 2.8, meaning for every person infected 2.4 to 2.8 additional people will come in contact with the virus.

My concern is still the Mortality Rate. A typical flu has a Mortality Rate of 2 in 100,000 people, or 0.002%. If you look at the confirmed metrics of approximately 60,000 infected and 1,300 deaths, that is an early, rough Mortality Rate of 2%. This is approximately 1,000x higher than a typical flu virus.

Why? My speculation is this virus results in a higher occurrence of Viral Pneumonia. ...which may require hospitalization. ...which in volume would overwhelm limited healthcare facilities.

It would be good news on the Mortality Rate if the number of infected was much higher. For example, 6,000,000 infected and 1,300 deaths would mean the Mortality Rate was 0.002% and more aligned to a typical flu virus. That is not what is being reported though. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. Time will tell.


Prepardedness observation. N95 masks are now sold out or over-priced. Nitrile gloves are readily available at Costco and Harbor Freight. If this virus gets going in North America then you're going to want disposable masks and gloves if you have to go out - even for something as simple as touching the pump handle at the gas station...

 

[98sporty]

CDC mistakenly releases infected patient from San Diego hospital...



When doctors do it, they are never alone, are they? Teams/staff/review/approval. A whole group of people need to be on the hot seat.

 

[98sporty]

Covid hospitalizations: See the latest trend and current count

The weight of the pandemic can be measured in the count of hospital beds filled with Covid-positive patients.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[E4mafia]

R0 (aka R-naught). The number of confirmed cases is still climbing. I expect it will go a LOT higher. ...but in some ways the R0 doesn't appear to be dramatically higher than a typical flu virus. The R0 might be in the range of 2.4 - 2.8, meaning for every person infected 2.4 to 2.8 additional people will come in contact with the virus.

My concern is still the Mortality Rate. A typical flu has a Mortality Rate of 2 in 100,000 people, or 0.002%. If you look at the confirmed metrics of approximately 60,000 infected and 1,300 deaths, that is an early, rough Mortality Rate of 2%. This is approximately 1,000x higher than a typical flu virus.

Why? My speculation is this virus results in a higher occurrence of Viral Pneumonia. ...which may require hospitalization. ...which in volume would overwhelm limited healthcare facilities.

It would be good news on the Mortality Rate if the number of infected was much higher. For example, 6,000,000 infected and 1,300 deaths would mean the Mortality Rate was 0.002% and more aligned to a typical flu virus. That is not what is being reported though. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle. Time will tell.


Prepardedness observation. N95 masks are now sold out or over-priced. Nitrile gloves are readily available at Costco and Harbor Freight. If this virus gets going in North America then you're going to want disposable masks and gloves if you have to go out - even for something as simple as touching the pump handle at the gas station...

Sanitation wipes would be another good idea same with hand sanitizer.

Probably get away with something like the basic cover they use for cleanroom fabs tbh. Actually that's probably the best is mimicking Intel's standard for gowning up to go into the fabs using a smock, hair net, beard net, glove liner and gloves and boot covers. Then practice good hygiene standards.

Though as I understand the masks and gloves are more for if you are already infected to help reduce spreading. We've been buying nitrile gloves and hand sanitizer and bleach wiped. If you can find isopropanol wipes I'd suggest that too.

Practice MOP level hell!!

 

[E4mafia]

The virus from reading posted links seems pretty tame in the US. The issue seems more on elderly, infants and compromised immune systems. That or as said before it going more extreme and backing up service.

The cause of concern seems more around catching a "virus". I can say US sanitation is likely far better than Chinas where you have too much smog, people packed like sardines and other factors like smokers and close living quarters and proximity. This would do its course in a city but have likely lot less impact in more rural areas. It is person to person but also airborne.

Practice good hygiene, take your vitamins, stay hydrated, if you feel sick go to the docs and get care. Don't be an infection spreader.

 

[Member 52301]

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic

U.S. Northern Command is bracing for an outbreak of the new coronavirus on U.S. soil, if it should occur.

www.militarytimes.com

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic


U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.


An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.


The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.


The document serves as the Pentagon's blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.

MORE on the link.

Cate

 

[leadcounsel]

13 Feb update with Dr. Campbell. Some good information and breakdown in a short video.

60,000 confirmed cases, another 13,000 suspected. ~15% are serious. Death rate between 1-2%.

He makes the point that if there's any major outbreak in the US at 15% serious symptoms requiring urgent medical care will overwhelm healthcare.

 

[CountryGent]

With the IT firm I work for IBM has been a client of ours for years. I just received a kind of creepy email message from them about what their organization is doing about the virus and their advice to their suppliers/partners.

 

[leadcounsel]

Confirmed case in San Antonio, TX. Coronavirus case confirmed in San Antonio, CDC says