AZ immigration law: I guess I'm a conspiracy theory nutjob.

[bugeye]

According to Justice Department statistics, crime rates in border states have dropped during past decade
Crime rates in Arizona at lowest point in decades. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the violent crime rate in Arizona was lower in 2006, 2007, and 2008 -- the most recent year from which data are available -- than any year since 1983. The property crime rate in Arizona was lower in 2006, 2007, and 2008 than any year since 1968. In addition, in Arizona, the violent crime rate dropped from 577.9 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 447 per 100,000 population in 2008; the property crime rate dropped from 5,997 to 4,291 during the same period. During the same decade, Arizona's undocumented immigrant population grew rapidly. The Arizona Republic reported: "Between January 2000 and January 2008, Arizona's undocumented population grew 70 percent, according to the DHS [Department of Homeland Security] report. Nationally, it grew 37 percent."

 

[bugeye]

California has 13% of it's prison population with immigration hold, not 50% as has been touted by the 'experts' in here.

<broken link removed>

 

[Trlsmn]

California has 13% of it's prison population with immigration hold, not 50% as has been touted by the 'experts' in here.

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"Inmates self-identify their country of birth, so the citizenship breakdown may not be entirely accurate,"

 

[bugeye]

Some of you have thrown around the 338.3 billion a year figure as the cost of illegals in the US. That figure is from an email done by Frosty Wooldridge an antil immigration activist. The method of obtaining this sum is full of bull.

The conservative Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) list cost of illegals familes as 10.4 billion a year and reports that they have a very low usage of welfare.

A 2007 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office examined 29 reports on state and local costs published over 15 years in an attempt to answer this question. CBO concluded that most of the estimates determined that illegal immigrants impose a net cost to state and local governments but "that impact is most likely modest." CBO said "no agreement exists as to the size of, or even the best way of measuring, that cost on a national level."

So, much for the facts you fellows say I ignore, they are just the sort worthy of being ignored.

 

[Trlsmn]

According to Justice Department statistics, crime rates in border states have dropped during past decade
Crime rates in Arizona at lowest point in decades. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the violent crime rate in Arizona was lower in 2006, 2007, and 2008 -- the most recent year from which data are available -- than any year since 1983. The property crime rate in Arizona was lower in 2006, 2007, and 2008 than any year since 1968. In addition, in Arizona, the violent crime rate dropped from 577.9 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 447 per 100,000 population in 2008; the property crime rate dropped from 5,997 to 4,291 during the same period. During the same decade, Arizona's undocumented immigrant population grew rapidly. The Arizona Republic reported: "Between January 2000 and January 2008, Arizona's undocumented population grew 70 percent, according to the DHS [Department of Homeland Security] report. Nationally, it grew 37 percent."

So what you're saying is there is a tolerable level of illegal immigrant crime? I see a statistic missing, that is the fact that every illegal immigrant is breaking the law every single day they are in the country!

 

[Trlsmn]

Some of you have thrown around the 338.3 billion a year figure as the cost of illegals in the US. That figure is from an email done by Frosty Wooldridge an antil immigration activist. The method of obtaining this sum is full of bull.

The conservative Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) list cost of illegals familes as 10.4 billion a year and reports that they have a very low usage of welfare.

A 2007 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office examined 29 reports on state and local costs published over 15 years in an attempt to answer this question. CBO concluded that most of the estimates determined that illegal immigrants impose a net cost to state and local governments but "that impact is most likely modest." CBO said "no agreement exists as to the size of, or even the best way of measuring, that cost on a national level."

So, much for the facts you fellows say I ignore, they are just the sort worthy of being ignored.

I would counter that by saying a cost of -$1 dollar a year to the tax payer is too much.

 

[bugeye]

"Inmates self-identify their country of birth, so the citizenship breakdown may not be entirely accurate,"

So, how would that account for a difference of 37%, and where is the 50% figure coming from? A bunch of people are yanking chains to make this a big issue.

I was just thinking about how many million would die in a mass deportation, millions dropped off to starve to death in northern mexico, and we would be responsible for that as we let this situation go on way too long for our own benefit. The strong polarization as shown in these posts is why DC can't deal with this problem, we can't send them back and we can't make them citizens, and we can't compromise, so we sit here in this fiasco forever. The economic trend has resulted in some of them going home but given some boom times they will be heading back and given our inability to pass resonable national laws this will only result in making the problem larger.

 

[nonsense]

My "freedom" has already been violated, sir

I know you don't care, just sayin'

I care about illegal immigration as much as anyone else here. I grew up in SoCal so I'm well aware of the problems. I still would never vote to give up a freedom like that. Giving local cops this power is asking for big problems, and just because you and I don't look "illegal" sure as **** wont' stop the local PD from abusing the power to detain you if they have no other legal recourse. What proof do you have right now that you're a citizen? Do you carry your passport with you? Your birth cert. (wait, that's not a legal doc according to birthers ).

It's interesting that the same people who don't trust the gov't with our gun rights, trust the government with out right to search and seizure. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.

 

[2zuks]

The conservative Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) list cost of illegals familes as 10.4 billion a year and reports that they have a very low usage of welfare.

It is amazing how statistics can be given in a way that doesn't exactly represent the full picture. I will take just the one statistic I quoted above as example. Below is what it says in full before being edited.

"the CIS report includes a total net cost estimate to the federal government for illegal immigrants of just under $10.4 billion for the year, after accounting for the taxes these immigrants paid. That doesn't include any potential costs to state or local governments"

What you did there is gave a estimated cost to the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT only. It doesn't take into consideration "any potential costs to state or local governments"! other than to say that the impact is likely modest.

 

[2zuks]

The information I have found so far on the impact to states has been significant. I am not sure how the impact to states such as California and Florida wouldn't be significant. I will finish up some looking and post some more info tomorrow besides "that impact is most likely modest."

 

[Gunner3456]

California has 13&#37; of it's prison population with immigration hold, not 50% as has been touted by the 'experts' in here.

<broken link removed>

You are counting only the ones who have an INS immigration hold. How about this?

"In Los Angeles, 95 percent of all outstanding warrants for homicide (which total 1,200 to 1,500) target illegal aliens. Up to two-thirds of all fugitive felony warrants (17,000) are for illegal aliens." Link

 

[Gunner3456]

 

[Jamie6.5]

To say that the "trend in the last decade" is any indication of whether things are better, worse or even indicative of the problem is a specious argument at best.
The problem has persisted for more than a decade. Many police agencies and even the populace have begun to accept the situation because the federal government has been failing in it's primary duty for more than the last decade.
Furthermore, the populace has been warned that taking matters into their own hands will result in legal ramifications and prosecution whenever possible. Christ, we even prosecute border patrol personnel if they can't prove beyond a shadow of a doubt they were justified. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? What happened to your right to defend your home and property?
Maybe the "trend in crime rate" is down, but the total number of crimes is up.
And by the way, looking at the Bureau of Justice Statistics website you won't find kidnapping on the list of "violent crime."

Phoenix has become the kidnapping capitol of North America. That is a fact. The number AND the rate have been attributed to illegals and their drug activity, by police, the FBI and the Justice Dept.

But yet the left continues to decry the AZ legislature and the Governor over this law.

If the FED.GOV did their job, and the congress funded it, Arizona wouldn't have to.

 

[nonsense]

You are counting only the ones who have an INS immigration hold. How about this?

"In Los Angeles, 95 percent of all outstanding warrants for homicide (which total 1,200 to 1,500) target illegal aliens. Up to two-thirds of all fugitive felony warrants (17,000) are for illegal aliens." Link

What does this have to do with the AZ law? How will a law like that help in LA? What you're saying is that LA can't catch 1200-1500 murderers with warrants, so taking away the need for a warrant will somehow magically help them become better police and catch these criminals? It sounds like LA needs to fix it's Police problem, then worry about the immigration problem.

 

[Gunner3456]

What does this have to do with the AZ law? How will a law like that help in LA? What you're saying is that LA can't catch 1200-1500 murderers with warrants, so taking away the need for a warrant will somehow magically help them become better police and catch these criminals? It sounds like LA needs to fix it's Police problem, then worry about the immigration problem.

Illegals can commit a crime in LA or Ariz. and then slip back over the border. We may not even know their real name.

What does it have to do with AZ? It's a problem all across the S. US and it's just an example. AZ has it's own big crime problem with illegals.

LA is a "sanctuary city" and you can see what failing to enforce immigration laws can do for you.

 

[bugeye]

It is amazing how statistics can be given in a way that doesn't exactly represent the full picture. I will take just the one statistic I quoted above as example. Below is what it says in full before being edited.

"the CIS report includes a total net cost estimate to the federal government for illegal immigrants of just under $10.4 billion for the year, after accounting for the taxes these immigrants paid. That doesn’t include any potential costs to state or local governments"

What you did there is gave a estimated cost to the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT only. It doesn't take into consideration "any potential costs to state or local governments"! other than to say that the impact is likely modest.

Yes, and there was no deception at all, it was right there, sheesh. See my previous posts about how little good information is available, and remember the quote I provided that shows the CBO not being able to come up with a figure at all. And this provide as a contrast to a specific figure based on BS made by a partisan anti immigration source.

 

[2zuks]

A quick break from the statistics game. Statistics can show anything a person wants them to. We know that illegal immigration is a problem. What people are trying to argue with statistics is to what degree it is a problem. That is kind of like saying that someone broke into your house and put your family in potential danger and invaded your area, but if they only stole $1000 worth of stuff, you will let them live their permamently. That's b.s.

Here is what everything boils down to. We either enforce our laws, or we don't. We have immigration law. Now we have 20 million or so people who are criminals by the definition of our own law. We either enforce it or we reward people for breaking it. If we don't enforce that law, then what gives us the abiltiy to selectively apply the law?

 

[bugeye]

Illegals can commit a crime in LA or Ariz. and then slip back over the border. We may not even know their real name.

What does it have to do with AZ? It's a problem all across the S. US and it's just an example. AZ has it's own big crime problem with illegals.

LA is a "sanctuary city" and you can see what failing to enforce immigration laws can do for you.

So, I guess this makes your side of the argument immune from actual crime statistics? Nice trick, now you guys can go back to making up your own 'far more accurate' figures!

 

[bugeye]

A quick break from the statistics game. Statistics can show anything a person wants them to. We know that illegal immigration is a problem. What people are trying to argue with statistics is to what degree it is a problem. That is kind of like saying that someone broke into your house and put your family in potential danger and invaded your area, but if they only stole $1000 worth of stuff, you will let them live their permamently. That's b.s.

Here is what everything boils down to. We either enforce our laws, or we don't. We have immigration law. Now we have 20 million or so people who are criminals by the definition of our own law. We either enforce it or we reward people for breaking it. If we don't enforce that law, then what gives us the abiltiy to selectively apply the law?

Good, so now you folks can go back to making decisions based on throwing the rune stones and tuning in Fox. "No need for any facts here folks, they are all flawed anywhere, objectivity is overrated, just join the conga dance! Where will this lead us folks?

There are objective stats, they are the kind we need to make informed decisions. I've provided the best ones I can find, not ones that I cherry picked.

Yes, what part of we have not enforced this law for 40 years don't you get?

 

[Gunner3456]

So, I guess this makes your side of the argument immune from actual crime statistics? Nice trick, now you guys can go back to making up your own 'far more accurate' figures!

Bugeye, I have come to the conclusion that not only are you blind to truth, you don't want to know any different. There is no hope.

"There is none so blind as he who will not see."

It's OK. Our SW states don't have burdensome expenses from illegals putting kids in school, providing Spanish speaking teachers, people with no insurance having accidents and fleeing, people taking jobs but not paying taxes. people managing to get social services... There is no crime problem and most of our drugs don't come over that border. Nope, no problem at all so let's just forget it.