AR Prices into the Basement

[Medic!]

Listen to yourselves!
Do you even stop to consider how all this affects the way your AR's feel?

Don't forget to take the time and let them know.
You is smart, You is kind, You is important.

 

[HappyRoman]

My AR's feel neglected. Just sitting around not doing anything

 

[Certaindeaf]

.. basement closet.. poor f'ers

 

[Norm0931]

A lot of the big sales happening are because manufacturer's and distributors have big bulk deals at SHOT. Buy 10 AR-556s and get one free, etc. Also, manufacturers are extending their programs because they had a lot of inventory anticipating a Clinton win.

 

[CamoDeafie]

I haven't really seen "basement prices" at the local gun show so far for ARs. Average to somewhat decent, to the usual high costs.......

You know something's up when CABELAS have better deals on some guns

 

[Caveman Jim]

My AR's feel neglected. Just sitting around not doing anything

What a tragedy..... Mine, like my dogs get regular exercise....

 

[etrain16]

Free market capitalism at work. Seems gun folks aren't happy no matter what the state of things. If dealers don't ramp up to anticipate demand and can't meet current need, people b!tch about it, plan ahead based on where the winds seem to be blowing, then have to cut back production, lay people off, and drop prices to match the market and perhaps overstock, and folks still aren't happy.

Working in the construction market for the last 25 years, I have seen my fair share of market swings, from deep lows where very few are working to high times where we couldn't man the work we had - which is where we happen to be right now. For us, it's a constant game of trying to guess when and by how much, the market will shift. We have to anticipate what work we can bid based in part on what labor we'll have available and what the various vendors can supply to us at any particular time. Since none of us can predict the future, we have to make our best guesses based on past history. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we're behind the curve.

While I'm not in manufacturing, I can only guess it's somewhat similar. You build what the market can bear, you don't overproduce (unless you have good reason) and you try not to underproduce. I also know that tooling up to face a big turn up in the market comes at considerable cost - our company does a lot of work connecting up power and controls to new tooling, so we get a good look at what is involved. It can be a costly mistake if they misread the market and tool up for an unsustainable increase. And I'm just speculating here, but I would expect that the costs of additional tooling, additional labor, etc., may not be offset strictly by increasing production. Remember that the money for tooling up/expanding often comes in the form of a loan, which means the money you're using to expand doesn't come free, you have interest to pay. So, with that increase in output, there may also be a necessary increase in cost that must be covered. Some may see this as gouging, others may see it as the cost of the current market.

In the gun market, as in construction, commodities will have a big impact too. We can see a big project go south rather quickly if prices on copper, steel and aluminum skyrocket and those prices are not locked in prior to the project. Like everything else, they'll sell to the ones that pay the most. Such is the free market.

I don't claim to understand how it all works, just that I have a glimpse into some of the factors. No doubt some folks look to make a keen profit during times of increased sales, and who can blame them? They are for-profit companies, not non-profits seeking to build guns and ammo for the good of humanity. But while these times may lead to higher prices, they are also the times when innovation and new builders are most likely to jump into the game, because the risk is less at those times. So, as the market goes up, we benefit from more options, newer innovations and developments, even if it comes at the cost of higher prices and lower availability.

It's a buyer's market right now and I would encourage everyone to keep buying, keep as many of these manufacturers in business as possible. I think we're only in a temporary lull, I don't think the anti's are going to give up on their battle against our rights. They may be out of power on a national level at the moment, but make no mistake, they will be back, and, I think, they're going to coma after us even harder, if for no other reason than to punish us for the recent win. So, if you've got some $$ to spend now, do it while you can, encourage others to do so too, so if, and probably when, another SH type event comes during the reign of anti-gunners, you won't be left wishing you had bought what you wanted/needed when times were good. I didn't learn that lesson during Clinton's admin, but certainly did by the time Obama came along. I have no plan to be caught with my pants down again, so to speak

 

[CamoDeafie]

@etrain16 , I agree about market fluctuations. My opinion, the market WAS ripe for increased innovation and new designs during the Obama administration, but companies did not take the chance, because they were behind production, because they were trying to avoid further gun-abolishment acts, and because they did not feel the need to expand their offerings.... and now they are paying for it. I would have loved to see the RUger PC9, Marlin Camp 9 and 40, and similar PCCs being offered at below the AR Prices during the Great Gun Panics, but now it is practically impossible for US companies to make PCCs competitive with AR15s, outside Hi Point.

 

[etrain16]

BTW, I did a little research online and found an interesting report on small arms production/supply in the US. It's a long read, and a bit boring, but interesting nonetheless. There are a lot of factors that play into the market, not just US manufacturers, but the state of imports from foreign countries, the state of the economy, the perception of public safety, wars, terrorism, etc.

I know this table isn't conclusive, but I labeled it with a few key points that seem to support what many of us may already know - when anti-gun Dems are in office, gun production seems to increase - again, this can be due to a lot of different factors, but I do suspect we can make at least a reasonable assumption that when pro-gun folks are running the country, we can expect to see a downturn in production/sales. If the manufacturers are watching these trends, no doubt they will follow history and cut production and reduce inventory to stave off their losses. Perhaps this is why we don't always see firearms/ammo manufacturers fighting against anti-gun Dem politicians as hard as they could. Perhaps if gun sales stayed as high under Republican admins as they do under Democrat, they would keep production up and prices steady. I suppose you can't blame them when we stop buying.

Here is one table - make of it what you will - I just found it interesting - the labels are my own, and not part of the original table:



Link to report: http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/F-Working-papers/SAS-WP14-US-Firearms-Industry.pdf

 

[etrain16]

@etrain16 , I agree about market fluctuations. My opinion, the market WAS ripe for increased innovation and new designs during the Obama administration, but companies did not take the chance, because they were behind production, because they were trying to avoid further gun-abolishment acts, and because they did not feel the need to expand their offerings.... and now they are paying for it. I would have loved to see the RUger PC9, Marlin Camp 9 and 40, and similar PCCs being offered at below the AR Prices during the Great Gun Panics, but now it is practically impossible for US companies to make PCCs competitive with AR15s, outside Hi Point.

I think the innovation was coming more from small companies and startups instead of from the big manufacturers. Not surprising as they hold much more market share and have to react to keep the stores filled. I agree it would be nice to see them innovate too, but their shareholders are probably more interested in selling as many units as possible than dumping a lot of money into new creations.

 

[11Charlie]

I am really hoping that with this little down turn it won't be as drastic and it will level off sooner rather than later. I am also hoping that the people that got caught with there pants down during the Obama days will take advantage of this situation and start buying to help things level out.

I know that I plan on purchasing as often as I can to help boost my supplies so I am in even better shape, so that when panic does set in again ( and it will ) I can sit back and tell the ones who didn't I told ya so with a bubblegumming grin on my face.

Nothing better than knowing you and your loved ones are going to be OK.

 

[nwslopoke]

So now that everyone in the PNW has 3 or 4 ARs in every caliber the question is what to do with them and how to create more interest.

We need some sort of AR Grand Prix sort of competition. Not something reserved for "real" operators, but something Fat Frank can take part in after work or on weekends. Gun stores could be small sponsors. Something like in motocross.

 

[Kruel J]

Prices are indeed the lowest they have ever been. I don't see it as a bad thing. It puts a rifle in reach of people that maybe couldn't afford one otherwise. It does hurt value for those of us that have a few, but the prices will go back up. Now is NOT the time to sell.

 

[Medic!]

I have my share of AR's.
But to tell the truth, I always felt a bit sorry for the guy with an AR collection.

So many other great Black rifles out there to collect.
Not to mention all the WWII guns and cool lever guns. [And yes Andy. Some that make a great deal of smoke]

Classic guns teach you a lot.

And people that own a diverse bunch of guns are more interesting. and just have more overall knowledge of firearms. [ It has been rumored they are also more handsome. But I can't verify this.]

Besides. Regardless of AR prices. My other guns seam to really hold there own. And there value is still on the rise.

 

[Pops1911]

Hey Brutus57 I know where you are coming from. The wife and I are also renovating a new house to live in soon- in April. My latest purchase was 1000 9mm at .15/round. Couldn't say no to that. I still hope the new pricing on things lasts some longer. I agree with what SKreuger said above. If someone wants something new now and has the cash to go for it. These markets can turn on a dime. Bad pun intended!

 

[flydipper]

So now that everyone in the PNW has 3 or 4 ARs in every caliber the question is what to do with them and how to create more interest.

We need some sort of AR Grand Prix sort of competition. Not something reserved for "real" operators, but something Fat Frank can take part in after work or on weekends. Gun stores could be small sponsors. Something like in motocross.

I shoot at a club up in the north part of Whatcom county called Custer Sportsman club we are introducing a new club match called Practical Rifle which will be a combination of steel and paper out to 100yds. It will happen on the 5th Sundays of the months that have them for the rest of the year to get the bugs worked out and will go monthly in 18. I'm not a facebook person but there is a facebook page for it there is also a brief on their website. Sounds like all levels of centerfire rifle will have divisions. There was a good talk about it at the board meeting last week.

 

[caarecengi]

Ruger AR's this past week at Grab a Gun for a touch under 500.00, I'm thinking that's cheap...

Hopefully this buyers market will extend to AR-10's as well

GunPrime.com = new Ruger AR556 for $469 plus $20 shipping to the FFL in WA state

 

[oldcorpgunny]

Fellows, what we're seeing is the calm before the storm. The ignorant and intolerables on the loony left, are in the shadows waiting for the opportunity to remove the 2nd Amendment and make gun ownership a historical footnote. I'm old enough to remember buying 1911's and M-1 carbines for $20.00 each from an ad on the back of the American Rifleman magazine. I say buy and shoot your AR's and enjoy them while you can.

 

[mjbskwim]

Fellows, what we're seeing is the calm before the storm. The ignorant and intolerables on the loony left, are in the shadows waiting for the opportunity to remove the 2nd Amendment and make gun ownership a historical footnote. I'm old enough to remember buying 1911's and M-1 carbines for $20.00 each from an ad on the back of the American Rifleman magazine. I say buy and shoot your AR's and enjoy them while you can.

Yeah it seems that some folks think the 'Trump era' will be the end all to gun control. I still believe the real powers that be do not want use to have any weapons what so ever. British law would be perfect for them.
So the point there is we still need to stock up.
Remember it only take one more.....

 

[Skier]

My AR's feel neglected. Just sitting around not doing anything

Weird... I'd have expected it to be out shooting people on it's own; They're really dangerous like that. ;-)