WIldfires in PNW - the new normal

[The Heretic]

Yes, we have always had wildfires, but they are getting worse, and will get even more bad (almost typed "more worse" ) in the coming decades.

Wildfires and smoke provide a peek into the future

"Going forward in the next three to four decades…I expect fires to continue to become unrecognizable to previous generations," Williams told the Washington Post last October. "In the 2030s, it is a very high likelihood that fires [will be] dwarfing the fires that we see today."

Prepare for the new normal

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[Connor Murphy]

More worse seems fitting.

 

[41mag]

"
John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at the University of Idaho, studies the link between human-caused climate change and wildfires. It's a "challenging question" to figure out what exactly contributes to a fire region in one year, but Abatzoglou said it's clear human activity is a major factor, both through increasing temperatures and suppressing fires in western forests.

"Yet again, we're having another above normal fire season, which we've seen repeatedly since 2000," he said. "In the future, we can expect more years like this.""

......Wonder what other forms of 'human activity' contributing to the problem they haven't specified....

 

[The Heretic]

Regardless of the cause, climate change is real.

The politics aside, it is wise to prepare - at least on a personal level - for the current and future effects which are only going to get worse and worse.

I do not get entangled in the politics because it is a waste of time to do so. Humans are humans, and not only will they deny that humans at least contribute, much less are a major cause, some will use that as an excuse to say it isn't even happening in the face of proof that it is. Meanwhile they will stick their heads in the sand just like the rest of the 'sheeple' - right or left, they are both controlled by their 'handlers' who manipulate them to the benefit of themselves and those that pay them.

There is no changing human nature. All we can do is prepare the best we can for the inevitable outcome.

 

[RingingEars]

Sad, but true and it seems like there is no going back at this point.

 

[tac]

In the case of the wildfires around Multnomah Falls in the last few days - 10,000+ acres affected - it seems that 'climate change' was helped along a bit by a cretin setting off some fireworks.

tac

 

[ATCclears]

I read an interesting article with commentary from a Forestry professor at the University of Victoria. The article was regarding the raging wildfires in BC in 2017.

Her observation was in the BC Cariboo region there were probably large forest fires every 25-40 years. BC has gotten better about fire suppression, and so there is an inherent build up of natural fuel (e.g. dead trees, pine needles, brush). So now when there is a fire it may become a monster given the extra fuel.

Something to think about if you're living in a rural or remote area.

 

[11Charlie]

I started looking around my place the other night. I live on a acre out in rural country with woods and other 1-5 acre plots of land. If for some reason a fire started things would go up quick. With that much land you can't afford to water your lawn and everything is dry as far as the eye can see.

It really made me think how easy it would be to get burned out because of some numb skull driving by throwing a cigarette out his window.

 

[parallax]

We have had a couple of fires on the bypass freeway ( beltline road) in the middle of town, here in eugene from people tossing out cigarettes from there cars. big dummies!

 

[RicInOR]

Do I think wildfires will be "worse" Yes, because we insist on building in areas which suffer wild fires. Just like we insist on building on slide zones, flood zones, storm zones, etc. The fires are needed to burn thru. We just don't like it when they do.

 

[Ura-Ki]

Proper forest management is a problem here as much as human cause. The fire in the gorge isn't abnormal, just the cause. Forest fires are actually a good thing and help renew the health of the forest, just sucks to watch it burn!
Do I think we will be seeing more fires or will they be worse then what we are used to seeing? No, historically, some of the largest fires in U.S. history were prior to the 1950s before we had the ability to more effectively fight them! These days, we take a hands off approach to managent, and then every one is surprised when these fires get big.

 

[Sgt Nambu]

Yes, we have always had wildfires, but they are getting worse, and will get even more bad (almost typed "more worse" ) in the coming decades.

Wildfires and smoke provide a peek into the future

"Going forward in the next three to four decades…I expect fires to continue to become unrecognizable to previous generations," Williams told the Washington Post last October. "In the 2030s, it is a very high likelihood that fires [will be] dwarfing the fires that we see today."

Prepare for the new normal

WORSER!

 

[jbett98]

This Los Angeles canyon home survived a massive fire because is was built to be flame proof.
The roof and eve vents will close by default when fire is detected.
There are radiused curves in the wall to roof areas to prevent the heat to build up. Absolutely no openings for flames or hot gasses to enter from outside.
Everything is stuccoed in cement and the landscaping and plants were designed to be fire resistant.
The owner planed ahead when building this structure, as he knew a catastrophic fire would eventually show up some day.

 

[11Charlie]

This Los Angeles canyon home survived a massive fire because is was built to be flame proof.
The roof and eve vents will close by default when fire is detected.
There are radial curves in the wall to roof to prevent heat to build up. Absolutely no openings for flames or hot gasses to enter from outside.
Everything is stuccoed in cement and the landscaping and plants were designed to be fire resistant.
The owner planed ahead when building this structure, as he knew a catastrophic fire would eventually show up some day.



View attachment 389577

The noise of construction around him for the next couple years is really going to hurt his resale value!

 

[The Heretic]

The noise of construction around him for the next couple years is really going to hurt his resale value!

How much you want to bet at least some of those houses will be rebuilt with at least some of the features of his house?

 

[11Charlie]

How much you want to bet at least some of those houses will be rebuilt with at least some of the features of his house?

If there smart a bunch of them will be.

 

[The Heretic]

If there smart a bunch of them will be.

 

[jbett98]

The owner discussed what the extra costs were to protect his home from a wildfire and I think it was only $15,000 or so to seal up the structure.

 

[Siglvr]

We had record rain this spring. That and milder temps caused underbrush to grow like crazy. Then it got dry and hot, like every summer, but with more now dry underbrush. Of course the stuff will burn.

10,000-12,000 years ago, ice covered a lot of this area. Not trees, ice. There were less forest fires then. Do I decry the fact that there were less trees then or pine for the days when the ground was covered in ice and not trees? I don't. In fact, a few short @100 plus years back the forests may have been burning down, because when the whites first got cameras they took a lot of landscape shots. That photo record shows that some of these places had very few trees back then. Same places today, now covered in trees. We most assuredly have climate change, how much is caused by man (some of it certainly is) is the raging debate.

It is what it is. For myself, the warm humid environment causes plants to grow, I'd rather have plants than ice. It seems we should be doing the easy steps to limit carbon dioxide production, no question, but what that is exactly is a raging debate as well but certainly well above my pay grade. I'm just going to relax and enjoy the fantastic tomatoes we've been getting due to the changed climate growing season.

 

[CoastRange57]

I have a lot of years in firefighting and have learned a lot. In the recent spate of wildfires I know that ODF sent teams into Black Butte to clear fuel from around houses. Something the homeowners should have done but are clueless about. Defensible space will save structures. Why Black Butte and Sunriver have not burned to the ground over the years is beyond me.

The way fires behave these days is more a function of the poor management of the resource than it is climate change, although there is probably a cause and effect relationship there. I am assembling the parts, most of which I have for my skid mount fire unit that I will take to our place in Crooked River Ranch. The video I have posted is a pretty good look at what I will be putting together with some changes. I will upgrade to a twin cylinder 19 hp engine, centrifigal pump,and a foam injection system with a foam nozzle. I have a 160 gallon eliptical tank and with a 10 gallon foam injection and 250 feet of forestry size hose I will be able to defend my house and shop quite well. Not that I will have any fuel close by to begin with though.

I know a guy south of LaPine who cleared 150 feet of timber around his entire shop and house, planted about 80 feet of irrigated grass and put a exterior sprinkler system on top of both house and shop. Fire came through the area, he turned his sprinklers on and sat on his porch drinking a cocktail while the fire went around him.

I completely agree with the assessment that the fires of the future will be huge. With the continuing mismanagement of the forest resources, fuel loads will increase, people pressure will increase and the resulting conflicts will be catastrophic