Unemployed People Everywhere I Go......

[TriggerDude15]

I am off mainly on weekdays, and on days off I might not shave and look like a hobo. I work, and I work hard, and I make a nice income I was one month over 30 when my wife and I bought our dream home. My wife works hard, looks more professional any day of the week, works Monday through Friday. Together we make quite a nice living, but you might think we were unemployed by the OP's assumptions. We are both RNs, and my wife has climbed the ladder high enough to make her own schedule. I also work swing shift so you may see me running errands mid day before work. Noon to 2PM is when I get my normal people stuff done, because when I get off work, the world is closed down.

i understand that there are swing shifts. my buddy works a swing shift.

as i mentioned before, how can the entire family (kids, grandparents, ect...) be out at the same time? do they all work the swing shift too????

 

[Wombat of Doom]

i understand that there are swing shifts. my buddy works a swing shift.

as i mentioned before, how can the entire family (kids, grandparents, ect...) be out at the same time? do they all work the swing shift too????

Like I also mentioned, in my family, my wife is high enough up the ladder she takes time off when she wants to and makes her own schedule to a degree. I am just saying that for some of us, the 8-5, monday through friday does not exist. All 3 adults in my household are RNs. My daughters will be homeschooled. (Not quite old enough yet.) So, yeah, a good chance I would get lumped in here, and between my wife and I, we work about 90 hours a week. The largest employer in the State is in healthcare, which for the most part is 24-7 shift work. 2/3 of those shifts won't conform to norms.

Add in tourism, and I think you have the answer to the OP.

I am switching to days soon, so this will be behind me. But having worked on nights and swing for a total of 8 years, yeah, I am running around by day, and people get quite rude in their assumptions they share.

 

[Diamondback]

And here's another thing to consider on schedules... business is global now, so some of us do business on other time zones' schedules. For example, my main client is in Italy, nine hours ahead of us, so basically I do *their* workday, then snooze for a few hours, then our day here on the Left Coast starts. So I don't want any crap about being lazy and sleeping in just because I'm working while the Bankers Hours Wankers are sleeping... lol

 

[Jamie6.5]

It doesn't help that 15-20 years ago the idiots in charge of this state decided we should rely more on a tourism based economy.
So every spring break season, and every summer, we have a steady parade of visitors traipsing through our regular haunts, in addition to the legions of unemployed/underemployed.

PS: don't forget to factor in the underemployed in this equation. People used to get 40 hours a week as a matter of course. Many if not most of the new jobs created since '08 are part time, and 24-32 hrs a week is the norm.

 

[MikeE]

California Leads U.S. Economy, Away From Trump

 

[CoastRange57]

What a load of horsesh*t. Not once in that article is anything said about the cost of government, crime or anything else. The US would be a better place if that whole state broke off and went aground off its parent state Mexico.

 

[MikeE]

What a load of horsesh*t. Not once in that article is anything said about the cost of government, crime or anything else. The US would be a better place if that whole state broke off and went aground off its parent state Mexico.

Actually the article speaks for itself. Economic growth, income, up. California attracts more innovative companies than any other state. California state bonds outperforming all Red states (Kansas anyone? Texas?). The article shows that large majorities favor the job being done by state government , so cost of government/taxes loses to performance. The article didn't tackle crime, but violent crime and property crime have been trending down since the 1980"s:Crime Data

 

[jim97701]

The thing that gets me down once and a while is that I work my butt off to make ends meet and these yahoos live beyond their means all day every day.

I know a kid at work that uses his credit card every day to buy his Dutch brothers and lunch. Not his bank card, a credit card. Sometimes it's different credit cards throughout the week. By the time he gets to my age, which isn't too far away, he'll be swimming in debt.

No worries, He will just file bankruptcy and we'll all get to pay for it.

 

[Mikej]

Actually the article speaks for itself. Economic growth, income, up. California attracts more innovative companies than any other state. California state bonds outperforming all Red states (Kansas anyone? Texas?). The article shows that large majorities favor the job being done by state government , so cost of government/taxes loses to performance. The article didn't tackle crime, but violent crime and property crime have been trending down since the 1980"s:Crime Data

This is a good thing, right? Will people start moving back to California if their economy is booming? Makes sense I think. This could help some of the smaller Oregon communities stabilize and stop outgrowing their available funding for public infrastructure. I didn't read the whole article, did it mention the billions of dollars of subsidies that go into all that renewable energy and other green technologies? How would California fare if the federal "Teet" were to dry up somewhat?

 

[CoastRange57]

This is a good thing, right? Will people start moving back to California if their economy is booming? Makes sense I think. This could help some of the smaller Oregon communities stabilize and stop outgrowing their available funding for public infrastructure. I didn't read the whole article, did it mention the billions of dollars of subsidies that go into all that renewable energy and other green technologies? How would California fare if the federal "Teet" were to dry up somewhat?

Maybe they should ask the people who live in Chula Vista, Compton, Molesto, Crescent City, East LA, Clearlake, Red Bluff about how the new California economy is faring them ??

They are a shell of what they used to be, and some never were anything to begin with. For every success story in CA, there are 40 stories of woe and failure. If California did not have the Colorado River water to inefficiently irrigate crops and flush their sewage to the ocean with, they would be nothing. Their farming practices are some of the most water wasting inefficient operations your will ever find. Their sandy soils and chemical pollution of ground water will be problems for years to come. You think SHTF ??? Think Colorado Aqueduct failure and you will see SHTF on an unimaginable scale.

For every foreigner that comes into the Bay area from Hungcouver BC and buys up a home for 1.5 million, giving that foreigner a pile of cash to come to the Northwest and pay 20% to 30% above asking price for a home needing another 50K worth of work, while they go to work at Intel with their 100 million dollar property tax cap rate in Washington County.

In the early 90's, I was making twice weekly runs to the Medford area. On each of those trips I saw multiple U Haul vans towing CA cars coming up the freeway. On one of those one way trips north trips alone, I counted 26 U Haul vans with CA cars in tow. People were having to fly up here, get the U Haul and drive it back to CA, since they were no inbound ones available. I see similar thinds happening now. The Oregon Washington real estate market is a screaming bargain compared to CA right now as long as you are in the $ 120,000 or above income bracket. When 900 sf homes in San Diego, San Jose and other places go for a million dollars your economy is f****d up, not thriving.

People can cite all the GDP statistics they want to, those do not take into consideration crime impacts, what property owners pay in taxes, and failing infrastructure needs. (Sup Oroville Damn ??) GDP indirectly includes those government subsidies and support, so break that out and see how self sustaining that economy is. Business's that have high margins can do well in CA, other more traditional blue collar stuff not so much. All the high tech with their huge salaries make for some great stories and for concentrating the wealth in a group of people that could give a rats azz about the poor saps making 50K a year that probably equates to less than 30K in a more "normal" economy. The wifes family had a farming operation in the Crescent City area. With the various bulls**t regulations on environmental impacts, the draconian labor laws it became very difficult to maintain a reasonable profit.

We tried to make a deal for her and I to buy the operation in the mid 90's, but even then it became very problematic to make that work and get an reasonable return on our investment and liability. That farming operation was a 3 million dollar a year operation. It is now just pasture ground with cattle on it, making 1 / 30th of what is it used to.

I see and talk to people every day who are California transplants and they are going to impact the Northwest economy like you cannot imagine over the next 30 years, much more so that the last 30 years.

 

[Mikej]

I was only semi serious partly tongue-in-cheek with that @CoastRange57 . I take ALL things I read with a grain of salt!

 

[MikeE]

Mikej, if and when the federal teat is removed, red-state America will become dead state America. California (and Oregon and Washington) contribute more revenue to Federal coffers than they get back.

 

[TriggerDude15]

Maybe they should ask the people who live in Chula Vista, Compton, Molesto, Crescent City, East LA, Clearlake, Red Bluff about how the new California economy is faring them ??

They are a shell of what they used to be, and some never were anything to begin with. For every success story in CA, there are 40 stories of woe and failure. If California did not have the Colorado River water to inefficiently irrigate crops and flush their sewage to the ocean with, they would be nothing. Their farming practices are some of the most water wasting inefficient operations your will ever find. Their sandy soils and chemical pollution of ground water will be problems for years to come. You think SHTF ??? Think Colorado Aqueduct failure and you will see SHTF on an unimaginable scale.

For every foreigner that comes into the Bay area from Hungcouver BC and buys up a home for 1.5 million, giving that foreigner a pile of cash to come to the Northwest and pay 20% to 30% above asking price for a home needing another 50K worth of work, while they go to work at Intel with their 100 million dollar property tax cap rate in Washington County.

In the early 90's, I was making twice weekly runs to the Medford area. On each of those trips I saw multiple U Haul vans towing CA cars coming up the freeway. On one of those one way trips north trips alone, I counted 26 U Haul vans with CA cars in tow. People were having to fly up here, get the U Haul and drive it back to CA, since they were no inbound ones available. I see similar thinds happening now. The Oregon Washington real estate market is a screaming bargain compared to CA right now as long as you are in the $ 120,000 or above income bracket. When 900 sf homes in San Diego, San Jose and other places go for a million dollars your economy is f****d up, not thriving.

People can cite all the GDP statistics they want to, those do not take into consideration crime impacts, what property owners pay in taxes, and failing infrastructure needs. (Sup Oroville Damn ??) GDP indirectly includes those government subsidies and support, so break that out and see how self sustaining that economy is. Business's that have high margins can do well in CA, other more traditional blue collar stuff not so much. All the high tech with their huge salaries make for some great stories and for concentrating the wealth in a group of people that could give a rats azz about the poor saps making 50K a year that probably equates to less than 30K in a more "normal" economy. The wifes family had a farming operation in the Crescent City area. With the various bulls**t regulations on environmental impacts, the draconian labor laws it became very difficult to maintain a reasonable profit.

We tried to make a deal for her and I to buy the operation in the mid 90's, but even then it became very problematic to make that work and get an reasonable return on our investment and liability. That farming operation was a 3 million dollar a year operation. It is now just pasture ground with cattle on it, making 1 / 30th of what is it used to.

I see and talk to people every day who are California transplants and they are going to impact the Northwest economy like you cannot imagine over the next 30 years, much more so that the last 30 years.

every thing you said is 100% spot on.

just take a look at what is happening in oregon right know. farm lands are being destroyed and those stupid little miniature 3 story homes are being built everywhere!!!!!

any small piece of land they find, even if it is 1 acre, they will build multiple homes!!! this is agenda 21 in full force

after oregon is done being destroyed, those scumbags will most likely move to idaho or montana. this whole country is being F'ed!!!!

all we can do is hope for some SHTF event or a economic collapse, and hopefully oregon could be saved from this overbuilding crap.

i know for a FACT the collapse is very near. only then people will most likely not be able to move up here or buy homes due to not having money.

 

[Mikej]

every thing you said is 100% spot on.

just take a look at what is happening in oregon right know. farm lands are being destroyed and those stupid little miniature 3 story homes are being built everywhere!!!!!

any small piece of land they find, even if it is 1 acre, they will build multiple homes!!! this is agenda 21 in full force

after oregon is done being destroyed, those scumbags will most likely move to idaho or montana. this whole country is being F'ed!!!!

all we can do is hope for some SHTF event or a economic collapse, and hopefully oregon could be saved from this overbuilding crap.

i know for a FACT the collapse is very near. only then people will most likely not be able to move up here or buy homes due to not having money.

What is the answer then? More people need more homes. They either build living quarters across the land, or build them on top of each other. Portland is choosing to build small and on top of each other. Except for some of the nicer neighborhoods, (close to me Irvington, Alameda, Beaumont, Roseway), where they are tearing down beautiful smallish, (Affordable?), homes and building 6500 sq'ers in their place. I don't have an answer, all I know is living IN Portland is sucking because of traffic, and the expense of the place. And it's not like they care about what we think anyway. It is after all driven by money for developers.

 

[Provincial]

One thing that slows down growth in western Oregon and Washington is the weather. It is difficult to build in the rainy season, so construction slows way down. California can build 52 weeks a year, which is one reason they have had so much growth.

This is a factor more for the developers than homeowners. Developers need to work fast and uninterrupted.

One big reason for the last recession was that gas prices went so high so fast. Big developers were moving very far out from the population centers in order to obtain the large tracts of land they need to be efficient. People were driving for hours to get to/from work, but then gas became so expensive that they could not justify the cost of getting to work. People quit buying houses so far out, and the big developers stopped building. The house of cards collapsed.

 

[Gaucho Gringo]

I am surprised they haven't found a way to build houses on the east side of 33rd between Klickitat & Fremont. I remember when there were only two houses on the west side and they were at the bottom. Having lived for 64 years in an area bounded by Fremont to Sandy and 26th to 65th I have seen a lot of changes to the area. But the real change has occurred in the last 15 to 20 years and not for the best, but for the developers greed. Small houses being torn down as you said, taller and more commercial development and all the ills that go with higher density. I got fed up and sold my house for 9 1\2 times what I paid for it and moved to Orchards. Quieter and slower paced life.

 

[CoastRange57]

The weather has very little impact on overall development. A developer will time the project to make sure that utilities and streets go in in spring summer or fall. Once that is all in you can build non stop unless you get snowed out. My former business was building sports fields and you needed some what dry weather to successfully accomplish that. We got pretty good at it, wrapped up dirt work by Thanksgiving and went to commercial landscape construction for the winter,and got back on the dirt in March. We worked 7 days a week from March to July, and 6 days a week until November. Construction is a math business, and spreadsheets do not lie as long as you input good numbers into them.

The fuel price run up back in 08 also had very little effect on construction. Sure I had a $ 10,000 a month fuel bill, but simple adjusting your rates and estimates made sure you had recovery and held some what of a profit margin allowed us to keep going for a while anyway. Any more fuel prices mean very little to workers making 100k a year. You had to get to work so you paid the fuel bill.

In years past high tech workers in varying salary levels all wanted to be close to work, under 10 minutes drive. That precept held true for a long time, until the close in housing started becoming to expensive for some of the lower high tech workers. Housing picked up in Happy Valley, Forest Grove because now all these drones wanted their "dream " homes and in order to have them, they now have to drive 20 to 30 minutes to the high tech corridor. The newer homes in those areas are now price in the high 400 to mid 500 range, and those are NOT being sold to people who currently live in Forest Grove or Happy Valley, Canby and Newberg. This is all out of the area money coming in and buying these homes.

These areas will continue to be built out and there is going to be ZERO capacity added to any high way infrastructure for commuting purposes. Metro controls all the land use in the tri county area. They have established the Urban Growth Boundaries, and those are pretty much set in stone and reviewed every 20 years or so. They have determined that high density housing is the way to go, with some of the lower end housing going in at 22 to 29 units per acre. There simply is no money to be made by builders who build a 300K house, no matter how many you build to the acre. When your lots cost you 40K to 60K, and your permits cost you 30K, you are out 70 to 90K before you even put a foundation in. Thus the market has moved to construction of 500K minimum where a builder can make 70 to 100K in net profit. Even in outlying areas like Carlton,Yamhill, Canby the 300K home is a thing of the past.

The distance from work centers had nothing to do with the economic collapse. It had everything to do with a bunch of junk financing given to 520 credit holders who had no ability to pay a mortgage.

Builders can meet Metros requirements by building multi units on high density land, freeing up the bigger lots for the upper end homes. There is going to be a real stratification of housing in the next 20 years. There is going to be upper end 500K and up homes and there is going to be apartments and multi family. This will make the used home market very good as inventory of homes under 500K is going to be tight and those homes will bring strong pricing and fast sales.

The biggest downside of this is that the traffic will be horrendous. With the Dundee bypass being the first commuter freeway added in the last 30 years in the Metro area, and likely the last for another 30 years, you can expect the honks to just add more lanes to the Sunset and just create additional areas to hold the traffic that inputs from the surface streets and arterials rather than be concerned about moving it. Already most trucking companies are moving products at night since traffic makes effective movement impossible during the day. Over 31,000 people a year are moving to the Portland area, additional amounts to Salem, Eugene, Medford and Bend.

Where the hell are you going to put them ??

 

[Provincial]

The Northwest hasn't seen the long commutes that I am talking about. It is the much larger markets that are affected by this. And those markets control the national economy.

The whole housing bubble was sort of a Ponzi scheme that required credit to be extended to unqualified buyers. The high fuel prices interrupted the supply of borrowers, causing a tipping point that brought down the system. It was well-known that the mortgages were insolvent long before the collapse. The interruption of the flow of mortgages was the trigger for the collapse.

The construction scheduling isn't about adapting to the weather by finding something else for the crews to do in the wet season, it is about working 52 weeks a year building houses, one after another.

 

[CoastRange57]

The construction scheduling isn't about adapting to the weather by finding something else for the crews to do in the wet season, it is about working 52 weeks a year building houses, one after another.

In the construction business it is about billable hours and how efficient your crews and subs are, and how good a project manager you are. I spent 5 years doing turn around's on poorly managed construction business's who could not get 8 billable hours of work done in a 10 hour day.

In weather sensitive business's, mostly excavation / dirt based business's need to make their money in a 9.5 month period. We assumed that we were done working the first of December and would get started again around mid February to March 1st. You base all your overhead recovery on the available hours you have to work in those other months, make sure you have all your direct costs covered and project manage very tight and you will make a net profit. If you are lucky enough to get some other work in the off months, then it is pretty much pure profit outside of direct costs.

I figured out ways to move materials in horrible conditions efficiently. I worn out hundreds of sets of rain gear. A couple feet of snow will shut you down no matter how good you are though.But with money in the bank and the bills paid, it did not bother me in the least. The snow looked fine out my shop window.

Most contractors are horribly inefficient. I hired a siding company to put new siding on my 1400 square foot house in mid October. They screwed up ordering the windows twice. They took 2 hours lunch's to get hot lunch and smoke a bowl or two. It took 3 guys over 6 weeks to do the job. Of course they tried to get a bunch of change order work on it, but I told them to pound sand. Their quote was for $ 6,000 in labor. They were not working any other jobs. They did not make sh*t and this is pretty much the norm on some of these scab subs these days.

 

[Gaucho Gringo]

I know what you mean. One time on a framing job I was in charge. I laid out what these two guys were supposed to do while I went to get some materials. I came back over an hour later to find them sitting down and not much done. They had shot the air hose for the air nail gun so they stopped. I blew a gasket. I said you have hammers and there is a box of nails over there, why didn't you guys grab some nails and start pounding. All I got was a deer in the headlights look. Needless to say they were gone by the next day. I have lots more stories. Sometimes all you can do is shake your head. And wonder sometimes how things get built at all.