Thinking about doubling the size of my ammo cache...

[DunRanull]

I'm a student of history, and I decided to look at the current spike in both the quantity and price of firearms/ammunition sales. I found this chart:


View attachment 828486

I noticed two obvious facts:

1) The average price goes up over time.
2) The big peaks (outliers) from the trendline collapse and return to the trendline.

Since we are currently living through an obvious peak right now (looks identical to the Obama/Sandy Hook peak), it seems like a no brainer to sell my ammunition and buy back twice the quantity once the peak collapses. I'd keep a reasonable amount on hand, but I have more than I could shoot in two lifetimes if I went shooting every single day. Why not double it?

Thoughts?

Use any surplus for a) practice, and b) trading for other stuff you might want to add to your survival supplies. That's just me, been in this game since the mid-70's and the horrors of the Carter residency.

 

[Member 52301]

Use it or lose it is still my motto!

Keep a bare minimum level that works for YOU as your needs and wants change due to one or more reasons.

Age, handicaps, shooting declines more per year, consolidation of firearm calibers, downsizing, moving, etc.

Old Lady Cate

 

[Member 52301]

Since this thread was revived...

What did the original poster end up doing?

Cate

 

[Yarome]

Personally, I've ridden on the ammo roller coaster more than a few times. What I think many are not paying as close attention to when considering historical data is the shifting changes worldwide. "Spike events" are not so much just domestic issues any more and falling closer and closer together. Those massive numbers of new gun owners in each cycle drive up demand and in the current climate, conditions now exist that have not been in play during previous cycles.

Widespead global economy shifts and recessions, world-wide labor issues and transportation bottlenecks. Base component supply issues that we have tasted more recently, but are really not fully yet to be realized in light of the depth of sanctions recently enacted.... not to mention government procurement increases that are sure to be on the tables now.... etc. We may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg in this short term, but may never fully recover before our baseline pricing is already in excess of what current pricing is today.

We've already been seeing it in the past couple of cycles. Basically the beginnings of a recovery cycle but just as soon as it begins there is another world or domestic event ripping it away back into another spike period.

Things as they are now... IMHO... there is no guarantee that our historical supply and pricing patterns will still apply to the same degree. Raw materials may become more available again, but surely at a dramatic price increase. Demand could also continue to outstrip production capabilites.

In light of that, I don't see any merit in the "sell high, buy twice as much later" model. It's increasingly more doubtful it will materialize. Or to say, fast enough that future prices will still be lower than what peak pricing is at now. Selling a gross over abundance for profit.... maybe. Leaving yourself only a bare short term minimum while chasing a significant increase in the near future might come back to haunt you. Just sayin....

I'll stick with riding out the peaks, hope for a reasonable time frame for pricing and supply to return to a new baseline, then increase stocks on hand as finances allow. Of course, I was raised that some things you just never sell. Real estate, precious metals.. and ammo.

 

[Yarome]

Since this thread was revived...

What did the original poster end up doing?

I guess this was an old thread.

Same thing applies. I bet if he sold back then, he hasn't been able to double his supply just yet... and not likely any time soon.

 

[DunRanull]

I'm a student of history, and I decided to look at the current spike in both the quantity and price of firearms/ammunition sales. I found this chart:


View attachment 828486

I noticed two obvious facts:

1) The average price goes up over time.
2) The big peaks (outliers) from the trendline collapse and return to the trendline.

Since we are currently living through an obvious peak right now (looks identical to the Obama/Sandy Hook peak), it seems like a no brainer to sell my ammunition and buy back twice the quantity once the peak collapses. I'd keep a reasonable amount on hand, but I have more than I could shoot in two lifetimes if I went shooting every single day. Why not double it?

Thoughts?

Buy when cheap, stack it deep!

 

[Alexx1401]

Buy when cheap, stack it deep!

YEP!! What never ceases to amaze me is how may shooters seem to want to do it the opposite way. When the shelves are full and the stuff is on sale every week? They do not want any. Next panic hits and stuff is hard to find and EXPENSIVE? Suddenly they want to buy cases of it

 

[DunRanull]

Well, at the risk of boring you all fartless - again - let me just remind you of the law over here. When you feel the need of another rifle [no handguns on mainland GB, remember, except BP and a few folks happy to bow and scrape to the authorities for a Section 5 certificate - you keep your handguns in a remote location, and get to shoot them only in the interests of academic investigation...] you have to APPLY for a variation to your Firearms Certificate, and then justify the reason behind the acquisition to the authorities, in my case, the county police, just like everybody else has to do.

With that application for a variation on the Form Firearms F1 you ask for a not unreasonable amount of ammunition, remembering that over here you have to JUSTIFY that amount with the use to which you will put that gun.

I always ask for more, knowing full well that it will be knocked back because I'm a known reloader.

The thinking goes that I'm unlikely to want to shoot more than 150 rounds of 6.5x55 at any one time, so I don't need to be authorised to have more than that amount, maybe by a small amount, usually, as rifle ammunition is sold in 20's, say, 170. As I'm not a deer-stalker, as hunters are called here, this seems to them to be reasonable amount to have and any one time. Same goes for all the others except the 7.5x55 Swiss, which I used to bulk buy when it came available and didn't want to miss out on it - just ONE dealer, selling it for box price, face-to-face - that's the law.

IOW, buy a hundred and that's ten times the price of ONE box. Buy 700 and that's 35 times the price of one box.

Bulk buy deals? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah...etc

IF for some reason, and by whatever method, it should be found that you are somehow in excess of your 'allowance' [yes, they call it an 'allowance], it will cost you -

1. Your Firearms Certificate.

2. A substantial amount of money - around £10K to start with, and, perhaps,

3. Your freedom for a period of up to five years, depending on the severity of your 'overstocking', particularly if it can be proved that your intentions were in any way supportive of any kind of criminality or illegal sales.

Welcome to the UK.

No offence meant- I would be most uncomfortable living anywhere in UK except possibly N Ireland. The lack of freedom and SPACE I am accustomed to here in Colorado would probably weigh heavily- as indeed certain of our more north-easterly states here would do. Glad my forebears saw fit to emigrate from the British Isles! Again, no offence meant, just thinking on what you posted....

 

[Yarome]

YEP!! What never ceases to amaze me is how may shooters seem to want to do it the opposite way. When the shelves are full and the stuff is on sale every week? They do not want any. Next panic hits and stuff is hard to find and EXPENSIVE? Suddenly they want to buy cases of it

Full shelves and cheap prices can give the false sense of a readily and reasonably available supply. "No point in stock up now when I can still do it later."

If history proves anything, though... it's not a matter of "if" supply will drop and prices will go though the roof. It's just a matter of when, for how long and it always catches nearly everyone off guard.

 

[Jay Walk]

I shoot my ammo.
Nobody wants to buy it after that.

 

[Camelfilter]

Since this thread was revived...

What did the original poster end up doing?

Cate

We never do know what banned members end up doing...

 

[41mag]

I shoot my ammo.
Nobody wants to buy it after that.

an amazing corallary is the growth of my collection of once-used primers. Too many are overlooking the Future Advantage of their own collection. "Once used but not abused" business motto doesn't seem to catch on either.

 

[Longwalkhome]

I am a life member at our gun club, I love to shoot. It was less expensive when I could buy primers and now I just buy ammo because primers are hard to find.

Of course that means I have more ammo than normal but since I can't just load a bunch up I have to buy a bunch.

It's going to get used at the range but I still have to buy more for what I use.

Fun is addictive.

 

[tac]

No offence meant- I would be most uncomfortable living anywhere in UK except possibly N Ireland. The lack of freedom and SPACE I am accustomed to here in Colorado would probably weigh heavily- as indeed certain of our more north-easterly states here would do. Glad my forebears saw fit to emigrate from the British Isles! Again, no offence meant, just thinking on what you posted....

Is there anybody on this forum whose ancestors did NOT emigrate from the British Isles. Asking for a friend.

And BTW, with reference to your other comment about space - considering that Colorado [population 5.76 Million] is TWICE the size of England [population ca. 63 Million] , so I'm not really to amazed that you like the 'space'.

Freedom is relative - I can buy a moderator without paying any tax to do so, and, if there was such a thing, a thousand thousand-round magazines, too. AND I can go visit a choice of three different thousand-year-old cathedrals just a few miles away. Try THAT in Colorado.

 

[Jay Walk]

I am Polish but also part Native American,
and one half Drunk

 

[CLT65]

I thought all Americans were English, except for the Amish.



Kidding, of course. I'm pretty typical "Heinz- 57 varieties" ancestry, mostly European/Scandinavian, with a very little bit of Native American mixed in. I'm told there is some ancestry way back when from the British Isles. As draconian as UK gun laws are (by American standards), I'd still love to visit some day, and hold absolutely no ill will towards the average Brit.

 

[tac]

I thought all Americans were English, except for the Amish.



Kidding, of course. I'm pretty typical "Heinz- 57 varieties" ancestry, mostly European/Scandinavian, with a very little bit of Native American mixed in. I'm told there is some ancestry way back when from the British Isles. As draconian as UK gun laws are (by American standards), I'd still love to visit some day, and hold absolutely no ill will towards the average Brit.

I'll let them know, thanks.

 

[GWS]

Is there anybody on this forum whose ancestors did NOT emigrate from the British Isles. Asking for a friend.

And BTW, with reference to your other comment about space - considering that Colorado [population 5.76 Million] is TWICE the size of England [population ca. 63 Million] , so I'm not really to amazed that you like the 'space'.

Freedom is relative - I can buy a moderator without paying any tax to do so, and, if there was such a thing, a thousand thousand-round magazines, too. AND I can go visit a choice of three different thousand-year-old cathedrals just a few miles away. Try THAT in Colorado.

Well, my Dad's side came from Bohemia and Mom's from Germany & Denmark.

btw What's a moderator?

 

[rjmt]

What will you do with the big cache?

I bought enough before I retired so my son won't have to for a generation
I'll never shoot up all I have put down in ammo cans and wooden crates under the bed

 

[rjmt]

Is there anybody on this forum whose ancestors did NOT emigrate from the British Isles. Asking for a friend.

And BTW, with reference to your other comment about space - considering that Colorado [population 5.76 Million] is TWICE the size of England [population ca. 63 Million] , so I'm not really to amazed that you like the 'space'.

Freedom is relative - I can buy a moderator without paying any tax to do so, and, if there was such a thing, a thousand thousand-round magazines, too. AND I can go visit a choice of three different thousand-year-old cathedrals just a few miles away. Try THAT in Colorado.

old Irishmen and their guns are like squirrels with their nuts
they both have several stashes buried around somewhere
my father's people were good Catholics from around Belfast

and yes, freedom is relative - I'm the first in my family for hundreds of years to own his own land
no Big House with a Lord overlooking my life
or politician in Olympia dictating my lifestyle