The future of AR/AK prices

[CEF1959]

I've noticed that the huge runup in prices for AKs and ARs in the past year has started to subside. Is it my imagination, or is the market for some weapons starting to saturate? I know some people will keep buying ARs even though they have a few (or more). But most people won't. So at some point, the people who want them will have them. And it's not like they wear out like cars and need to be replaced every few years. At least not for most people.

There are places in the world where you can hardly give an AK away, because people who want them already have them, and there are so many around.

Is the great Scary Black Gun bubble going to burst? AR/AK sales crash, accessory sales up?

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[Zhivago]

I sure hope so because when that bubble pops I'm going to be there ready to buy enough cheap ARs and AKs to supply a small country.

 

[cameronhu]

I sure hope so because when that bubble pops I'm going to be there ready to buy enough cheap ARs and AKs to supply a small country.

+1

Washington could be considered a pretty small country.

 

[Oro]

Yes, the bubble has already burst on gun prices and they are coming down. This doesn't mean they will become "dirt" cheap, but it means this:

1) Keep in mind, recent prices were not just "panic" prices, but they were panic prices layered on top of over-heated economic boom prices. Double bubble.

2) Prices will go back too pre-boom, and pre-panic prices. Like what you saw in 2005/6 - steady state market clearing prices.

3) In the very short term, likely next winter/spring, prices may go down lower, push some folks out of the market. Between now and then people will just be in denial about the depth of the economic contraction and not realize it's still going to get worse.

4)So yeah, I'd still be dumping some stuff, building up a kitty, then buying stuff in another nine months/year.

The best advice about market boom/bust cycles I ever heard was from the legendary investment manager Sir John Templeton. He said something like (I paraphrase):

"When you think a market has bottomed and the worst is over and you are ready to buy; sit back and wait six more months."

After nearly 20 years in markets and observation, this has always been a sound move.

 

[Trlsmn]

Yes to the question, the AR and AK market is going through a correction, I wonder if the mfgs can get a gov bailout?

 

[Grizzly_A]

I'd like to pick up a couple more....

Still waiting...cash in hand..

 

[kentsboots]

ammo seems to be easier to find too

 

[littlecars]

ammo seems to be easier to find too

I havend been able to get any of my ammo!

Ammo or not I have cash in hand for a good deal on a 20" bull barrel AR!

Im just waiting

 

[MountainBear]

Yes, the market is starting to level off. Not only are some of the manufacturers starting to get caught up, but other factors are influencing as well. Chief among these is the continuing consumer financial struggles. I imagine manufacturers are having orders canceled at a faster rate than usual as people cannot come up with the funds to follow through on their order (I suppose it depends on what kind of deposit, if any, was made when the order was placed).

Watch the classified sections. Not only on the internet forums, but in papers as well. Many people are selling their guns to pay their other bills. I'm not saying all these are guns bought in the post-election panic, however it stands to reason a good number of them are.

I believe that the market has in fact not only become saturated, but rather over-saturated with AR's and AK's (as well as other things). My local gunstores are getting shipments of AR's in regularly (perhaps even more regularly than they would like, as the sales of the guns has slowed down considerably). People I see on the forums looking for AK's (usually in trades) are again being very picky on which ones they want. Several months ago, any AK was good trade bait. Now people seem to be more interested in the higher quality, better reputation guns.
To a certain extent, this has been applying to AR's as well. Several months ago, few people were asking if it was a kit built or factory built gun. I see that question/caveat popping up as well.

 

[Trlsmn]

I believe that the market has in fact not only become saturated, but rather over-saturated with AR's and AK's (as well as other things). My local gunstores are getting shipments of AR's in regularly (perhaps even more regularly than they would like, as the sales of the guns has slowed down considerably). People I see on the forums looking for AK's (usually in trades) are again being very picky on which ones they want. Several months ago, any AK was good trade bait. Now people seem to be more interested in the higher quality, better reputation guns.

AKA Gougers can no longer ask $800 for a $400 WASR 10

 

[MountainBear]

AKA Gougers can no longer ask $800 for a $400 WASR 10

Without getting into an economic argument about the existence of price gouging in a "free-market" environment, thats still a good thing.

 

[ob1]

I'm going to be there ready to buy enough cheap ARs and AKs to supply a small country.

Congratulations !!!

You have just been placed on the top of the list for your neighborhood's door to door sweep program.

As for me, I dont own any of those icky nasty gun things, so they can just pass my house by on the way to yours


.

 

[JAFO]

It'll only last as long as Obama allows it.

AKA Gougers can no longer ask $800 for a $400 WASR 10

There are no $400 WASR 10s. The new low WASR price is $500.

 

[Trlsmn]

It'll only last as long as Obama allows it.



There are no $400 WASR 10s. The new low WASR price is $500.

How about $359?

<broken link removed>

 

[JAFO]

How about $359?

<broken link removed>

I stand corrected. I don't personally acknowledge non-converted single stacks without a threaded muzzle. Now show me some of those at low prices.

 

[Trlsmn]

I stand corrected. I don't personally acknowledge non-converted single stacks without a threaded muzzle. Now show me some of those at low prices.

True it is a single stack, let me do some searching and see what doubles are going for.

Here's some for $459

 

[Selftest]

Prices are sort of coming down. You can now purchase very high quality complete ARs for about $1k. Lower parts kits are still hard to come by, and Colt ARs are still fairly expensive at $1300+, but when are they not?

Ammo seems to be the biggest problem. $400 for 1k Wolf is TERRIBLE, as it was about $150 bucks a few short years ago. Handgun ammo has gone way up ($16 bucks for 50 rnds of WWB .40, whereas 2 years ago it was $20 for 100.)

My solution is to try and pick up the hard to find parts/ammo as they (and my funds!) become available. Some parts are easy to find at good prices.